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When Will Watson Learn?
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-02 10:10
The corn market was quietly higher pre-dawn Thursday morning. The fact I chose to ignore the obvious Wednesday afternoon doesn’t change the reality the corn market uncovered new buying interest as the December issue (ZCZ25) tested $4.10 yesterday. After posting a low of $4.1050, Dec25 extended this little pop to a high of $4.1925 overnight, though trade volume was only 10,500 contracts. But the market is actually more interesting than that. Recall Wednesday finished with the December issue up 1.0 cent. Last ...
Commodity Market Roundup- September’s Top Performers and Underperformers
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-01 15:02
The prices of agricultural commodities in the grain/oilseed, soft, and animal protein sectors posted losses in September, except for October lean hog futures, which gained 5.08%.COMEX copper futures, the volatile red metal, recovered in September, after wild price swings over the past months due to tariffs. The futures contract rose 5.79% in September.Gold reached a new record high of nearly $3,900 per ounce, posted its eighth consecutive record quarterly peak, and rose convincingly above its inflation-adju ...
Wheat Showing Slight Losses on Monday Morning
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-29 12:35
Wheat is showing just marginal losses early on Monday. The wheat market posted Friday losses across the three markets to end the week. CBT soft red wheat futures closed the day with 6 to 7 ¼ cent losses, as the Friday action saw December down 2 ¾ cents last week. Open interest slipped 1,716 contracts on Friday. KC HRW futures were 6 to 7 cents lower on the session, with December ending the week 1 ¾ cents lower than it started. Preliminary open interest was up 1,178 contracts on Friday.  MPLS spring wheat f ...
Wheat Bulls Head into the Weekend with Their Tails Tucked
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-26 22:06
Market Performance - The wheat market experienced losses across all three markets, with CBT soft red wheat futures closing down 6 to 7 ¼ cents, and December futures down 2 ¾ cents for the week [1] - KC HRW futures also saw declines of 6 to 7 cents, with December ending the week down 1 ¾ cents [1] - MPLS spring wheat futures posted losses of 5 to 6 cents, although December managed a slight gain of ¼ cent since last Friday [1] Speculative Positions - Speculative traders in Chicago wheat futures and options increased their net short position by 12,110 contracts, bringing the total to 97,935 contracts as of September 23 [2] - In Kansas City wheat, managed money reduced their net short position by 1,230 contracts to 50,304 contracts as of the same date [2] Export Commitments - The USDA Export Sales report indicated export sale commitments at 13.699 million metric tons (MMT), which is a 23% increase from the previous year and the highest level since 2013/14 [3] - This figure represents 56% of the USDA's export projection and is ahead of the 5-year average pace of 54% [3] Stock Estimates - Analysts anticipate that the USDA's Grain Stocks report will show wheat stocks on hand at 2.054 billion bushels (bbu) as of September 1, with estimates ranging from 1.975 to 2.22 bbu [3] Russian Wheat Exports - Sovecon estimates Russian wheat exports at 43.4 MMT, a decrease of 0.3 MMT from the previous estimate [4] Closing Prices - Closing prices for various wheat futures on December 25 and March 26 showed declines, with CBOT Wheat at $5.19 3/4 (down 7 1/4 cents) and KCBT Wheat at $5.05 1/2 (down 6 3/4 cents) [4]
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-09-25 16:24
Wheat and corn futures rose on the Chicago Board of Trade after the US government reported weekly export sales that beat analyst estimates https://t.co/LiGgwpOgBs ...
X @外汇交易员
外汇交易员· 2025-09-23 06:15
阿根廷政府宣布,在10月31日之前,或出口总额达到70亿美元之前,暂免大豆(此前26%关税)、豆油(24%)、豆粕(24%)、玉米(9.5%)和小麦(9.5%)等农产品出口关税。路透援引贸易商消息报道,在阿根廷宣布免税后,中国买家已从阿根廷预订了至少10船大豆,为第四季度建立库存。另有贸易商称15船。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):上周米莱在接受记者采访时坦言“市场正处于恐慌状态”。过去一个月,阿根廷债券股票外汇全线下跌,资本外流速度明显加快。丰业银行资本市场经济主管Derek https://t.co/Du2qsFUeeQ ...
X @外汇交易员
外汇交易员· 2025-09-23 06:15
阿根廷政府宣布,在10月31日之前,或出口总额达到70亿美元之前,暂免大豆(此前26%关税)、豆油(24%)、豆粕(24%)、玉米(9.5%)和小麦(9.5%)等农产品出口关税。路透援引贸易商消息,在阿根廷宣布免税后,中国买家已从阿根廷预订了至少10船大豆,为第四季度建立库存。另有贸易商称15船。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):上周米莱在接受记者采访时坦言“市场正处于恐慌状态”。过去一个月,阿根廷债券股票外汇全线下跌,资本外流速度明显加快。丰业银行资本市场经济主管Derek https://t.co/Du2qsFUeeQ ...
全球大宗商品一周回顾-Global Commodities_ The Week in Commodities
2025-09-23 02:34
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Commodities - **Key Focus**: Oil and Natural Gas Markets, Commodities Price Forecasts Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Demand Growth**: Global oil demand expanded by 520 thousand barrels per day (kbd) year-over-year in September, with visible global liquids stocks rising by 72 million barrels (mb) [2] 2. **Ukraine's Strategic Shift**: Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, indicating a strategic shift that could impact global energy markets [1] 3. **Fed's Rate-Cutting Cycle**: The Federal Reserve's cutting cycle began, historically leading to positive returns in commodities. Commodities averaged +15% returns nine months after similar cycles in 1995 and 2024 [5] 4. **Recession Risks**: Recession risks are elevated at 40%, with potential negative impacts on commodities if offsetting Chinese stimulus is not present [5] 5. **Inflation Concerns**: The risk of renewed inflation is high at 45%, particularly in the US, which may affect commodity prices [5] 6. **Natural Gas Storage Trends**: Weekly storage injections for natural gas are expected to be in the range of 70-90 Bcf through mid-October, with a preliminary estimate of a 73 Bcf injection for the upcoming report [9] 7. **Base vs. Precious Metals Performance**: There is a notable divergence in performance between base and precious metals following the first rate cut, with precious metals generally performing better [9] 8. **US Crude Output Resilience**: US crude output has remained resilient, averaging close to 300 kbd year-over-year from January to August 2025, with no significant pullback in operator activity [12] 9. **Permian Basin Activity**: Permitting data shows no signs of a slowdown in activity in the Permian Basin, with permit volumes 6% higher than the previous year [12] Additional Important Insights 1. **Global Commodity Open Interest**: The estimated value of global commodity market open interest surged to a 2025 year-to-date high, increasing by 4.1% week-over-week to $1.59 trillion [11] 2. **Natural Gas Market Dynamics**: Solar energy generation is significantly impacting realized and forecast gas-fired power generation, especially during the shoulder season [9] 3. **Metals Market Trends**: Industrial metals are lagging behind precious metals, with base metals like aluminum, zinc, and nickel consistently underperforming compared to copper [9] 4. **Price Forecasts**: Forecasts for WTI crude and Brent crude prices are projected to decline to $57 and $61 per barrel respectively by Q4 2025 [13] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the global commodities market.
Wheat Mostly Weaker on Monday AM Trade
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-22 12:40
Group 1 - Wheat prices are experiencing a decline across winter wheat contracts, while spring wheat remains higher [1] - The wheat complex saw losses on Friday, with CBT soft red wheat futures down by 1 to 2 cents, and KC HRW futures down by 2 to 3 cents, resulting in a weekly loss of 7.5 cents for December [1] - The US dollar index increased by $0.334 to $97.305, adding pressure to commodity prices [1] Group 2 - The 7-day weather forecast predicts 1-3 inches of rain in the eastern Central Plain, extending to the Appalachian range [2] - The Commitment of Traders report indicated that spec funds reduced their net short position in Chicago wheat futures by 6,569 contracts, totaling 85,825 contracts, and in Kansas City wheat futures by 1,491 contracts, totaling 51,534 contracts as of September 16 [2] Group 3 - The weekly Export Sales report showed accumulated wheat sales at 13.156 million metric tons (MMT), which is 20% larger than last year and a 5-year high for that week, representing 54% of the USDA wheat export projection [3] - Closing prices for various wheat futures on December 25 showed declines, with CBOT Wheat down 1.75 cents to $5.22 1/2 and KCBT Wheat down 2.75 cents to $5.07 1/4 [3]
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-09-18 04:55
Wheat futures rebound from a slump the prior session, following a Taiwan group pledging to buy 3.6 million tons of the grain from the US over the next three years https://t.co/l1mFsFvDe8 ...