Investment Rating - The report maintains a base case view that oil prices will drift lower, with forecasts of US$66 per barrel for 2025 and US$58 per barrel for 2026 [3][18]. Core Insights - The recent spike in crude oil prices, rising over 15% to approximately US$75 per barrel, is attributed to geopolitical tensions, particularly fears of conflict between Israel and Iran [2]. - The report suggests that the inflationary impact of a sustained US$10 per barrel increase in oil prices will be limited across Asia, with an average CPI impact of 0.2 percentage points [5][12]. - The analysis indicates that the impact on GDP growth from rising oil prices is marginal, estimated at an average drag of 0.1 percentage points [16]. - Major energy importers in Asia, such as Thailand and Korea, are expected to bear the brunt of higher oil prices, with trade balances negatively affected [17][21]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Impact - A sustained increase in oil prices could lead to a surge in prices to US$120-130 per barrel in extreme geopolitical scenarios [3]. - The report highlights that the initial inflationary impact from a US$10 per barrel increase is manageable, with economies like the Philippines and Thailand experiencing more noticeable effects due to efficient pass-through mechanisms [5][6]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The report concludes that the current oil price increase will not significantly disrupt the rate cut cycle in Asia, as inflation is expected to remain within target ranges for most economies [18][20]. - For economies like Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore, oil prices in the range of US$75-90 per barrel could complicate monetary policy responses [12][20]. Trade Balance and External Accounts - The report notes that the impact on trade balances varies across the region, with major energy importers facing a higher burden from increased oil prices [16][21]. - The report emphasizes that the current external accounts are stronger compared to previous periods of energy price shocks, which should help mitigate some negative effects [17].

The amount of the tariff affects, the size of the tariff affects their duration, and the time it will take are all highly uncertain. So that that is why we think the appropriate thing to do is to hold where we are. As we learn more and we think our policy stance is in a good place where we're well positioned to react to incoming developments, we have to be forward looking.And the thing that every forecaster, every outside forecaster and the Fed is saying is that we expect a meaningful amount of inflation to ...

>> I'M ROMAINE BOSTICK. BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD STARTS NOW. COMING UP, THE FED KEEPS RATES STEADY AS CHAIR POWELL FLAGS INFLATION COMING DOWN THE PIPE.BUT EARLIER TODAY FED GOVERNOR WALZ OR HAD SOMETHING TO SAY. A DOVISH TILL POTENTIALLY CUTTING RATES AS SOON AS NEXT MONTH IN HIS VIEW. AS MARKETS GET A REPRIEVE FROM GLOBAL TENSIONS, PRESIDENT TRUMP BUYING TIME IN THE MIDDLE EAST.WE BEGIN WITH THE BIG ISSUE AND IT IS WAIT AND SEE AT THE FED. >> THE FED IS IN THIS REALLY POLICY PURGATORY. >> I THINK THEY ARE DOI ...

Interest Rate Policy & Economic Outlook - Market anticipates approximately two rate cuts by year-end, while some Fed officials suggest potentially only one [1] - There's significant uncertainty and deteriorating sentiment in the economy, making it difficult for the Fed to balance monetary policy [2] - Political factors, including a new Fed chair, may lead to increased pressure for rate cuts due to the impact of interest rates on large debts [3] Impact of Rate Cuts - Lowering rates could reduce returns on assets, requiring interventions that devalue money [4] - Aggressive rate cuts could negatively impact the bond market [5] - Monitoring the yield curve, dollar movement, and gold prices can reflect shifts away from bonds due to concerns about the value of money [6] Monetary Policy & Elections - Midterm elections and potential changes in monetary policy create a period of concern for the markets [5]

LOWER AT 3.5%, 76 $.06 AS POSSIBLY DIPLOMACY COULD RULE THE DAY. POWELL'S BIGGEST CRITIC. PRES.TRUMP: WE HAVE A STUPID PERSON AT THE FED. HE IS A POLITICAL GUY WHO'S NOT A SMART PERSON. WHAT I WILL DO, HE GETS OUT AND ABOUT NINE MONTHS.HE GETS TERMINATED. MAYBE I SHOULD GO TO THE FIT. MY ALLOWED TO APPOINT MYSELF AT THE FED.I WOULD DO A MUCH BETTER JOB. WE SHOULD BE TWO POINTS LOWER. LISA: PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP CONTINUING HIS CRITICISM OF THE FED CHAIR, WRITING ON TRUTH SOCIAL "TOO LATE JEROME POWELL IS CO ...

I'm pleased to uh bring in uh Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Uh he is um joining us this morning from Washington. Good morning, Governor Waller. Good morning, Steve.Thanks for having me on. Uh thank thanks for joining us. Um I just want to begin um big debate and you can see it in the outlook for rates at the at at uh from the uh summer of economic projections.Where do you stand in this debate right now over how much concern we all should have over coming potential inflation from tariffs. Steve, you know, ...

We've had the decision from the MPC to keep interest rates unchanged by a margin of 6 to 3, a bit closer than some had expected. Just take us through the thinking there. So we decided to hold rates at 4.25%.Today, we have been able to cut rates four times over the last year. But given the uncertainty facing the economy, we decided to hold at this event. And one of those uncertainties, of course, are the unfolding events in the Middle East and the impact that could have on the oil price.At what point would t ...

We spoke just a few moments ago about what we were expecting. 7-2 seems to have been the consensus a little bit may be more dovish in terms of the vote split. That looks like it, Guy.Absolutely. As you say, the hold was widely expected, but all the focus as your last guest was also saying, is on whether the break down was going to be seven members of the monetary policy committee voting to to hold and to for a quarter point cut. But in fact, we've got three for a quarter point cut.And it looks like the addi ...

The President of the Swiss National Bank said the strong Swiss franc was one factor influencing the SNB's decision to cut its interest rate to zero. Martin Schlegel also said that Switzerland was ready to intervene in the FX market if necessary. Schlegel spoke with Bloomberg’s Bastian Benrath in Zurich. 00:00 - SNB interest rate decision 00:58 - Swiss franc, currency 01:52 - Oil prices, inflation, effect on economy, intervention in FX market, monetary policy 04:55 - Tariffs, trade, impact on Swiss economy 0 ...

Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dualmandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Breaking news.The FOMC meeting took place today. Fed Chair Jerome Powell made an interesting announcement shortly after. The news is this.The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged. Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position. The unemployment rate remains low and the labor market is at or near maximum emp ...