The Canadian economy surprisingly shed jobs for a second consecutive month as the unemployment rate jumped, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada this month https://t.co/h7ushYQXjU ...

Labor Market Overview - US non-farm jobs增加仅 22,000，为 2021 年底以来最弱的月度增长之一 [1] - 失业率上升至 4.3%，接近四年高位 [1] - 市场此前预期增加 76,500 个就业岗位 [1]

Unemployment Rate - US unemployment rate remains at 4.3% [1] - The actual unemployment rate matches expectations [1] Market Sentiment - The report suggests a bullish outlook for markets [1]

REMINDER 🚨🇺🇸 US UNEMPLOYMENT DATA WILL BE RELEASED TODAY AT 8:30AM ET.EXPECTATIONS: 4.3%IF IT COMES AT 4.3% OR HIGHER, THE FED COULD EVEN CUT RATES BY 50BPS. https://t.co/xbPY5hQSpP ...

Let's get to Bloomberg's Michael McKee. Mike, what's the data showing us. Well, the JOLTS numbers come in a little bit lower than anticipated, which I suppose is good news in a way.It suggests maybe the unemployment rate isn't going to move as much 7,181,000 jobs openings. Now, this is for the month of July, not for the month of August. Friday, we get the August payrolls report last month, which would have been June four, JOLTS 7,437,000.So we have seen a decline, but it's still a fairly strong rate. This w ...

Market Overview & Growth Indicators - HSBC suggests remaining "risk on" for the final four months of the year, indicating a positive outlook on market risk [1] - The US is showing signs of growth reacceleration, particularly in high-frequency indicators like credit card spending and retail sales [2] - High-frequency indicators across labor, consumption, and manufacturing sectors are showing signs of pickup since late June/early July [3] - Expectations for the second half of the year (H2) are low, creating a low bar to surpass [4] Labor Market Analysis - Official labor market data is tricky due to a strong reversal in immigration flows, making it difficult to pinpoint the break-even payroll number [7] - A payroll number around 50,000-70,000 might be enough to keep the unemployment rate steady or even lower, given immigration flow reversals [7] - The focus is on the unemployment rate, which, if steady, suggests the labor market isn't in significant trouble [8][9] Investment Strategy - The rally is expected to broaden out beyond AI and tech, with more economically sensitive sectors starting to participate [5]

Market Volatility & Economic Data - The market may experience increased volatility if economic data significantly surprises to the upside or downside, especially given equity valuations predicated on substantial Fed easing [2] - Hedge funds' significant short positions on the VIX suggest a widespread expectation of continued complacency in the market [1] Interest Rate Expectations - The market has priced in approximately five rate cuts by the July meeting, while inflation uncertainty remains [2] - The market is heavily invested in expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, influenced by Jerome Powell's comments at Jackson Hole [4] - The likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in September, or even a potential 50 basis point cut, depends on the magnitude of the miss or beat in upcoming payrolls and labor market data [7] Labor Market Analysis - Last month's payrolls data indicated a more precarious labor market due to significant downward revisions [6] - The key labor market indicators this week, including the payrolls print, will guide the September cut and further decisions [7] - Consensus expects approximately 100,000 job gains in August, with focus on the unemployment rate, currently at 42% [9] - An increase in the unemployment rate to 44%, especially amid immigration restrictions, is a key gauge closely monitored by the Fed [10] - Given revisions, the ADP print may be a more accurate gauge than the BLS data, potentially shifting market attention [11]

Employers in the US showed little enthusiasm to take on workers during August, and the unemployment rate probably ticked up to an almost four-year high https://t.co/6UQYaZTOsS ...

Labor Market Trends - Demand for workers has cooled [1] - The unemployment rate held steady [1] - There was a sharp decline in immigration [1] - There was an abrupt slowdown in the supply of labor [1]

Labor Market Trends - Demand for workers has cooled [1] - The unemployment rate held steady [1] - There was a sharp decline in immigration [1] - There was an abrupt slowdown in the supply of labor [1]