Labor Market Overview - The labor market is deteriorating for both employers and job seekers, with job seekers facing fewer openings and longer unemployment durations, as evidenced by the long-term unemployment rate reaching its highest since November 2021 in September [1] - Employers are struggling to find qualified candidates, particularly in industries like homebuilding, leading to a significant slowdown in job creation, with job losses occurring in two months of 2025, a first since the pandemic [2] Job Creation Trends - Economists predict that the U.S. economy will add an average of only 57,000 jobs per month in the first quarter of 2026, a stark decline from the pre-tariff average of 147,000 jobs per month [3] - Job creation has slowed to an average of 38,600 jobs per month since the announcement of tariffs, which is less than a quarter of the previous rate [3] Economic Implications - The slowdown in hiring and the rise in long-term unemployment indicate that both employers and workers are struggling to adapt to a new economic environment characterized by uncertain trade policies, higher borrowing costs, and persistent skills mismatches [4] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies, particularly tariffs, is a significant factor in the slowdown, as businesses are hesitant to expand or hire without clarity on future costs [5] Technological Impact - The increasing adoption of AI in businesses may further impact the workforce, with estimates suggesting that AI could replace 6% to 7% of existing jobs, although new job opportunities may arise as a result [6] Immigration and Workforce Supply - The reduction in immigration due to policy changes has significantly decreased the number of available workers, exacerbating the challenges employers face in finding qualified staff [7] - The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco projects that only 500,000 immigrants will arrive in the U.S. in 2025, a drop from 2.2 million in 2024, which will further limit workforce growth [8] Labor Market Dynamics - There is uncertainty regarding whether the job market's issues stem from a lack of jobs, a lack of workers, or both, complicating the understanding of labor demand and supply dynamics [10] - The Federal Reserve's policy committee is considering the implications of falling labor demand on interest rates, which could lead to cuts aimed at boosting hiring, although the effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain [11]

Alex Karp is no stranger to transforming the markets. Now he's entering the culture-war debate and changing it to a capital-markets moment. The Palantir (PLTR) CEO believes the issue of large-scale immigration will become irrelevant moving forward, Fortune reported. Karp believes a need for future large-scale immigration is “hard to imagine,” except for people with very specialized skills essential to a company such as Palantir. His comment clearly blasts a hole in the culture-war issue. Now, it isn't m ...

Well, inflation, tariffs, and jobs are a big part of the debate around the economic forecast for 2026. It's like they were all last year. Senior economics reporter Steve Leeman joins us now with a potential bright spot for the new year.And and there were a lot of bright spots in last year versus what the expectations were, Steve. >> Yeah, that's right, Joe. But one of the downsides of tariff was that companies would be forced to lay off workers if they couldn't pass along their added cost.But Morgan Stanley ...

Labor Market Overview - The labor market is deteriorating for both employers and job seekers, with job seekers facing fewer openings and longer unemployment durations, as evidenced by the long-term unemployment rate reaching its highest since November 2021 in September [1] - Employers are struggling to find qualified candidates, particularly in industries like homebuilding, leading to a significant slowdown in job creation, with job losses occurring in two months of 2025, a first since the pandemic [2] Job Creation Trends - Economists predict that the U.S. economy will add an average of only 57,000 jobs per month in the first quarter of 2026, a stark decline from the pre-tariff average of 147,000 jobs per month [3] - Job creation has slowed to an average of 38,600 jobs per month since the announcement of tariffs, which is less than a quarter of the previous rate [3] Economic Implications - The slowdown in hiring and the rise in long-term unemployment indicate that both employers and workers are struggling to adapt to a new economic environment characterized by uncertain trade policies, higher borrowing costs, and persistent skills mismatches [4] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies, particularly tariffs, is a significant factor in the slowdown, as businesses are hesitant to expand or hire without clarity on future costs [5] Technological Impact - The increasing adoption of AI in businesses may further impact the workforce, with estimates suggesting that AI could replace 6% to 7% of existing jobs, although new job opportunities may arise as a result [6] Immigration and Workforce Supply - The reduction in immigration due to policy changes has significantly decreased the number of available workers, complicating the hiring process for employers [7] - The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco projects that only 500,000 immigrants will arrive in the U.S. in 2025, a drop from 2.2 million in 2024, which will further limit workforce growth [8] Labor Market Dynamics - There is uncertainty regarding whether the job market's issues stem from a lack of jobs, a lack of workers, or both, complicating the economic outlook [10] - The Federal Reserve's perspective on labor demand versus supply could influence borrowing costs and interest rate decisions, potentially impacting hiring in the coming year [11]

Immigration Policy - The U S government will pay immigrants living in the U S illegally $3,000 (a tripling of the current "exit bonus") if they voluntarily leave the country by the end of the calendar year [1]

Well, it's part of Denmark is like saying that someone wants to take over Hawaii or Alaska or Nebraska, if you will. So, it's not so much that we have feel like we have a relationship. It's part of our country.So, people get quite upset over here when these things happen. >> When you when you look at it, I mean, I'm thinking of the air force and the defense of Denmark, and I'm going to suggest, you know, it's not going to compete with the US. What is the approach here to defend these decades and century old ...

Employment & Immigration Concerns - The report expresses concern over the number of Americans losing jobs [1] - It questions the frequency of this situation and suggests banning immigration from India [1] - The report alleges a pattern of Indian CEOs of American companies prioritizing the hiring of Indians over Americans [1]

Every day, Alex Lamong, who fled violence in South Sudan and immigrated to the US in 2009, worries about his future. >> I just want to be given an opportunity to start my life fresh without always worrying about, hey, will I be safe next year. >> The 28-year-old is one of thousands of immigrants facing possible deportation as the Trump administration ends temporary protected status for a host of countries.Leong, who was 11 when he came to the US, says his father, two brothers, and a number of family members ...

Immigration Policy - The U.S government will pay immigrants living in the U.S illegally $3,000 if they voluntarily leave the country by the end of the calendar year [1] - The $3,000 payment represents a tripling (300%) of the current "exit bonus" for self-deportation [1]

Immigration Enforcement Actions - The Trump administration's immigration crackdown, led by Gregory Bino, involved detaining individuals in Chicago [1] - ICE detained approximately 1,800 people during "Operation Midway Blitz," with 1,271 lacking any criminal record [3] - Of those arrested, a small fraction (28) had been convicted of violent felonies or sex crimes [3] - Illinois saw the sharpest increase in ICE arrests of any US state in the first 5 weeks after the blitz began [8] Concerns and Criticisms - Critics argue that the operation targets individuals based on their skin color rather than criminal history [4] - There are reports of inhumane conditions in detention facilities where those arrested are held [8][14] - The actions of ICE and CBP are instilling fear and causing chaos in communities, including schools [6][7][17] - The state administration is working to ensure that local jails cannot be used as detention spaces for ICE [12] - There is a call for transparency regarding the location and treatment of detainees [15] State Response - Illinois is not interested in supporting or being complicit in what it considers a cruel agenda [11] - The state is advocating for transparency and accountability from federal agencies regarding the detention of individuals [15] - The Lieutenant Governor is actively engaging with community organizations and providing support to those affected [16][17]