Is the pain trade now to the up or to the downside. I think the tendency is definitely up that the trend is up. I mean, the you know, if the ceasefire holds, it looks good now.That's a that's a tremendous plus for the markets. I think, you know, all time highs for the S&P are virtually a foregone conclusion now and and further highs after after that. I mean, Powell was flexible.Clearly, Congress wants interest rates to go down and a number of Fed officials do. That could be a positive. I think they should g ...

Interest Rate and Bond Market - The market anticipates potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, influenced by Powell's testimony, which outlines paths to rate cuts, contingent on factors like tariffs [3] - Without tariffs, rates could potentially be 100 basis points lower, influencing bond yields [4] - The Fed might consider a smaller rate cut in September, followed by a potentially larger cut, depending on upcoming data [4] - Faster and sooner rate cuts by the Fed could lead to rising yields [5] Treasury Market and Foreign Buyers - Concerns about foreign buyers stepping away from treasuries have diminished amidst the equity rally [6] - There's still pressure on the long end of the yield curve due to the budget bill, energy shocks, and tariffs, potentially leading to higher yields [6] - The current counter-rally might be driven by domestic players and technical factors, but the underlying story of pressure on the long end hasn't fundamentally changed [6] Dollar and Currency Dynamics - The dollar is near a three-year low, potentially due to relief in markets benefiting other currencies [7] - Currencies benefiting from tariff or geopolitical relief tend to rally, while the dollar weakens [8] - If treasuries face more pressure, the dollar is likely to weaken [8]

Roger Ferguson, Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman and CNBC contributor, says Powell will highlight uncertainty. CEOs remain cautious, with many expecting mild recession; Fed remains divided on timing of rate cuts amid global risks. ...

Market Trends & Geopolitical Impact - The market initially reacted negatively to the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, with oil prices surging, but then reversed as Iran's response appeared limited, leading to a drop in oil prices and a bullish market sentiment [1][3][10][27] - Iran's potential closure of the Straits of Hormuz is unlikely due to their own reliance on it for 170万 barrels per day of exports [1][4] - US ethane exports to China are being used as a bargaining chip in the rare earth minerals debate, causing uncertainty for US energy exporters [3][4][5] Investment Opportunities & Company Performance - Darden Restaurants presents a compelling investment opportunity due to strong performance, especially at Olive Garden and Longhorn Steakhouse, a $1 billion buyback program, and a 71% dividend increase [11][12][13][14] - Darden's blended same store sales were up 46%, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of 35% [13] - Longhorn Steakhouse surpassed $3 billion in annual revenue for the first time in fiscal year 2025 [18] - Arlo Technologies' subscription business is experiencing insane growth, with subscriber count breaking through 5 million users and aiming for 10 million by 2030 [40][41] - Arlo Technologies' gross margin expanded by 600 basis points year-over-year, reaching 83% [43] Individual Stock Analysis & Recommendations - Circle Internet Group: Sell 50% of your position tomorrow morning and let the rest run [3][33] - Palantir: Jim Kramer said at 50, it's going to 100, at 100, it's going to 200 [3] - Haiko: Take some off tomorrow just because you're going to be a good soldier, but I like the stock [3] - Arlo Technologies: Put on a small position here, but you got to wait for a buyback before you buy more [52]

Monetary Policy Stance - The industry suggests the Fed might have already implemented one rate cut [1] - The industry notes the Fed's previous Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in March occurred before the April 2nd tariff announcement [1] - The industry observes the Fed's forecasts indicate a slightly more restrictive policy stance than anticipated in March [1] - The industry believes the Fed made the right decision to hold the funds rate steady, awaiting more clarity [1] Economic Outlook - The industry acknowledges the economy's resilience, citing a strong labor market and rebounding growth after a negative first quarter [1] - The industry recognizes uncertainty regarding the size and effects of tariffs, anticipating higher inflation and weaker growth [1] - The industry expects the budget bill working its way through Congress to influence the economic outlook [1] - The industry highlights the importance of minimizing both the risk and cost of policy mistakes, suggesting it's not costly to hold rates steady given the current economic environment [3] Inflation and Unemployment - The industry indicates tariffs are expected to cause higher inflation, at least temporarily, and slightly higher unemployment [1] - The industry points out that the unemployment rate is low [3] - The industry observes that growth in employment is moderating as expected [4]

Market Sentiment & Economic Outlook - The market is facing a battle between resilience and complacency as the second quarter ends [1] - Some believe the market is resilient and will continue to rise towards all-time highs [2] - Concerns exist about the removal of buybacks and the end of the 90-day tariff extension [3] - The market may react negatively if the dot plot indicates only one rate cut, while two cuts may already be priced in [12] - The market has pure momentum in basically every sector, with strong appetite for IPOs until the second quarter earnings reports [17][18] Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve - The FOMC meeting is anticipated with uncertainty, especially regarding Chairman Powell's stance [3][4] - Some argue that recent weak data points, such as the largest drop in retail sales since March 2023 and poor home builder sentiment, justify a dovish stance [5] - Michigan consumer one-year inflation expectations have decreased from 73% to 53%, which the Fed may consider significant [6][7] - Uncertainty regarding tariffs and the Middle East conflict may prevent the Fed from adopting a dovish position [8][9] - The Fed's own measure of uncertainty is near pandemic and financial crisis levels, suggesting caution [22][23] - The core PCE went up by 03%, Real GDP went down by 04%, and the funds rate kept unchanged at 39% [21][22] Inflation & Tariffs - Looming tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East create uncertainty regarding future oil prices [8] - Inflation readings have been relatively good recently [8] - Inventories not subject to tariffs are dwindling, potentially leading to higher prices [16] - One company's aluminum costs, previously sourced from China, increased by 50%, leading them to source from the US, but costs are still up 35% year-over-year [14]

Well, joining us is Emily Roland, John Hancock, investment management co-chief uh investment strategist. Emily, what's going on. How are you.What what what what's caught your uh your interest. Like you we we've pointed out insurance companies have a whole different uh sort of a view of the world at times with because you the money has to be there, doesn't it. For a lot of people.That's true, Joe. And you know, today we're obviously focused on the Fed. Thank you for having me on on Fed Day.And I think, you k ...

For more on the data in the Fed's policy meeting, we want to bring in Dennis Lockhart. He is former Atlanta Fed president and a distinguished professor of international affairs at Georgia Tech. Uh Dennis, what do you think of of Steve's analysis on this.The idea that yeah, the numbers are bad, but a lot of that was pulled forward. Yeah, I'll associate myself with Steve's analysis there. I think this the pull forward effect is probably showing up in the numbers which uh means that the committee is likely to ...

Let's just scenario play. Yes, please. What happens if Powell rips in a 100 basis point cut.Right now, I'll tell you. So, one part which is mathematical is the interest on the debt goes down. We save 300 billion.But there's something else that happens which is the Fed does control the front end of the curve. Meaning, how do people borrow money for small amounts of time from one day to about two years. If you make that cheaper, it's a test that's true as time.What happens is people borrow more money. that fu ...

Dollar Weakness Drivers - The dollar's longer-term downtrend is driven by cyclical and structural changes, including slowing growth and inflation, and the current account deficit [2][3] - Unexpected softness in inflation data has recently accelerated dollar weakness, shifting expectations towards more aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year [3] - Reduction in global demand for assets may be contributing to dollar weakness [4] Market Factors and Events - Upcoming US retail sales report and Federal Reserve rate decision are important news events for the dollar [5] - Potential details on unilateral tariffs from the Trump administration could cause a near-term safe haven bid in the dollar [6] - The Federal Reserve may eventually push the button on rate cuts in Q4 [6] Yen and Central Bank Policy - BOJ (Bank of Japan) has been unpredictable and unconventional, with yen volatility creating trading opportunities [7][8] - Tariffs influenced BOJ's decision-making regarding interest rates [8]