#Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP flashed sharp declines after Powell hinted at rate cuts — are weekend profits vaporizing already? 📉 ...

Welcome back. Markets once again betting heavily on a September rate cut following Chair Pal's much talked about pivot in Jackson Hole on Friday. Joining me now to discuss David Zervos.He's Jeffrey's chief market strategist. Also said to be on the list of possible next Fed chairs. Welcome.I think it's our first interview. I'm glad to welcome you to our program. >> Good to be here, Scott.You happy with what you got from Jackson Hole. >> I am. I think it was uh it was a pivot toward a lot of what uh folks lik ...

Market Trend & Interest Rate - The market anticipates a 25 basis point (0.25%) interest rate cut in September, guided by Jerome Powell [1] - The expectation of rate cuts in September is likely to drive the market higher due to the influx of cheap capital [3] Historical Data Analysis - Historically, a 9-month gap between policy moves has been bullish for stocks [2] - The S&P 500 has risen 10 out of 11 times when the Fed takes between 5 to 12 months between cuts [2] Investment Implications - Potential for a strong end to the year for investment portfolios if rate cuts occur as guided [3] - Stocks and Bitcoin reacted positively to the news of potential rate cuts [1]

Market Trends & Dynamics - Market experienced a pullback after a rally following J Powell's Jackson Hole speech, where rate cuts seemed likely [1] - Friday's rally was unexpected, leading to short covering and strong performance in Russell and value stocks [2] - Summer volume is low, contributing to profit-taking [2] - Nvidia's earnings will be key for the AI trade [2][3] - Recent weeks have seen weakness in tech and a broadening of the market, possibly due to valuation concerns and reports questioning the benefits of generative AI [4] Investment Opportunities & Potential Risks - Investors are cautious about valuations, especially in AI stocks, leading to profit-taking [5] - Opportunities exist in staples and industrials, which haven't performed as well [6] - Dividend stocks and companies needing access to capital could perform well when rates come down [6] - Investors should assess the risk in their portfolios and avoid overconcentration in high-performing stocks [7][8] - Consolidation is natural after a great run in the AI trade [7]

Jerome Powell telegraphed the Fed's likelihood of resuming rate cuts as soon as September, but it will be up to the economy to set how far the central bank will go https://t.co/eZQgB1Fv1r ...

Investment Portfolio Analysis - Portfolio is heavily reliant on lower interest rates through private investments and crypto [1] - Recent comments from Fed Chairman Powell suggesting rate cuts are expected to positively impact net worth [1] - Portfolio faces concentration risk [1] Market Impact - Lower rates are a leveraged bet, implying potential for amplified gains or losses [1]

It's crazy how different the market can look in just 24 hours. I made a video last night talking to you guys about why we need to listen up to when Jerome Powell speaks and this is exactly why. There was a Jackson Hole conference today with Jerome Powell and I said that it was going to be a very big conference to tap into because what's being said at these conferences and when Jerome Powell speaks the market listens and if we look at the market today we could see that it was a very good conference.In fact, ...

Did the market overreact to the Fed news today. The market's been trained, the stock market's been trained to rally whenever the Fed tells you they're going to cut interest rates. It's just that coming in, didn't we.Oh, I I agree. We're we're sort of rallying again on the possibility of rate cuts. We've been pricing into rate cuts for months now.So, but Jay Powell basically Goldman Sachs is at like I think three rate cuts. I don't understand why the market reacted this way when everybody and maybe everybody ...

Market Performance & Trends - The Russell 2000 showed significant gains, hovering around 4% higher after traders digested comments from the Fed Chair [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 19%, or 846 points, closing at 45631, nearing a record not seen since December [7] - The S&P 500 increased by 15%, closing at 6466, although off its highs for the day [7] - The Nasdaq was up 19%, driven by tech stocks [7] - The KBW Bank Index surged by 32%, reaching its highest close since 2022, influenced by signals from Jay Powell regarding potential rate cuts [9][10] - Most sectors were in the green, with consumer staples being an exception [8] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The market reacted strongly to Fed Chair Jay Powell's speech, with stocks moving into positive territory [2] - The speech was heavily scrutinized for its implications on the dual mandate and the Federal Reserve's future economic actions [4] - Markets may be overly optimistic about potential rate cuts in September, as the speech contained hawkish elements and emphasized the need for labor market cooling without signaling urgent action [23] - The 10-year Treasury yield dropped significantly, more than 10 basis points, finishing the day at 369, following the Fed Chair's speech [22] Company Specific News - Intel shares surged, up 56%, following the announcement of a potential 10% equity stake by the US government [12][13] - Apple shares hit session highs after reports of discussions to use Google Gemini for Siri's voice assistant [13] - Intuit was the biggest decliner in the S&P 500, down about 51%, after a tepid forecast overshadowed a strong fourth-quarter report [16][17] - Workday shares declined, down about 14% year to date, as investors were disappointed by unchanged subscription revenue guidance [18][19] - The Weekend is negotiating $1 billion in financing backed by his music rights, including $500 million in senior debt, $250 million in junior debt, and $250 million in equity [31]

Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve (Fed) was in a wait-and-see mode regarding the impact of tariffs, but recent data suggests a muted impact, potentially leading to rate cuts [2] - The Fed perceives no signs of tariffs causing inflation expectations to become unanchored, viewing it as a one-off event rather than an ongoing inflationary cycle [3] - The speaker suggests Chair Powell is ready to start moving in September [3] - There was a debate within the committee about the luxury of waiting longer, possibly influenced by the August 1st payroll report [4] Inflation and Tariffs - Data suggests a more muted inflation impulse from tariffs, with some tariffs being negotiated down [5][6] - The initial tariff concerns from April, anticipating widespread increases of 20-30%, have subsided [6] - The slower impact of tariffs over time makes the Fed more comfortable that inflation expectations will remain anchored [7] Inflation Expectations - Inflation expectations are considered crucial in monetary policy, but the right measure is unclear, with options including Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), consumer surveys, and business surveys [9] - The Fed has wiggle room in choosing which inflation measure to emphasize [10] - Despite past concerns about transitory inflation, people continue to believe the Fed regarding inflation expectations [10][11] Labor Market - Revised data suggests the labor market has been weakening [2][7] - Weakening labor market data supports the idea of bringing rates down [7]