Mortgage rates are down despite the Fed. I mean, you got you got to work on this guy. He's got some real mental problems and here's something wrong with him.It's just sweet. I'll be honest. I'd love to fire his ass.He should be fine. Guy's grossly incompetent, and he should be sued for spending $4 billion to build a little building. I'm building a ballroom that's going to cost a tiny fraction of that, and it's bigger than the whole thing put together.You got to work at him, Scott. The only thing Scott's blo ...

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is experiencing its lowest turnover rate since the early to mid-1990s, with only 28 out of every 1,000 homes changing hands in the first nine months of 2025 [1] Group 1: Factors Contributing to Low Turnover - High borrowing costs and elevated home prices are significant barriers for homebuyers, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remaining around 6% despite a slight decrease from its peak of over 7% in Q4 2023 [2] - The weakening job market and economic growth contribute to homeowners' reluctance to buy or sell, leading to a natural decline in transaction pace [3] Group 2: Regional Variations - Turnover rates vary by region, with major cities like New York and Los Angeles showing the lowest rates at approximately 10 to 11 sales per 1,000 homes, influenced by state laws like California's Proposition 13 that incentivize homeowners to remain in their properties [4] Group 3: Market Implications - The current market conditions result in reduced supply for buyers and diminished demand, leading to a sluggish housing market characterized by fewer transactions and more homes remaining unsold [6] - A potential drop in mortgage rates could encourage buyers to re-enter the market and prompt sellers to consider moving [7]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have seen a slight increase, with the average 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.15% and the 15-year fixed rate to 5.60% [1] - Current mortgage rates are presented as national averages, rounded to the nearest hundredth [2][3] - The mortgage refinance rates are generally higher than purchase rates, although this is not always the case [3] Mortgage Rates Overview - The current mortgage rates include: - 30-year fixed: 6.15% - 20-year fixed: 5.97% - 15-year fixed: 5.60% - 5/1 ARM: 6.28% - 7/1 ARM: 6.03% - 30-year VA: 5.60% - 15-year VA: 5.26% - 5/1 VA: 5.25% [4] Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs) - ARMs have an initial fixed rate for a set period, after which the rate adjusts periodically [12] - The advantage of ARMs is typically a lower introductory rate compared to fixed rates, leading to lower initial monthly payments [13] - However, there is a risk of rate increases after the introductory period, making future payments unpredictable [13] 30-Year vs. 15-Year Fixed Mortgages - A 30-year fixed mortgage offers lower monthly payments and predictable payments, but comes with higher interest costs over the loan's life [7][9] - A 15-year fixed mortgage has higher monthly payments but lower interest rates, allowing borrowers to pay off their mortgage sooner and save on interest [10][11] Market Trends - Mortgage rates are expected to remain stable in the near term, with the Federal Reserve indicating uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts [17] - Overall, mortgage rates have shown a general decline over the past couple of months, remaining below levels from a year ago [18]

Market Overview - Existing home sales growth is on pace for the slowest in a quarter century due to high home prices and interest rates [1] - Over 60% of homes are owned by people over 60, contributing to a "gummed up" market because they prefer to age in place and are not incentivized to downsize [2][3] - Home prices have increased over 45% since 2020, keeping first-time buyers out of the market [9] - There are currently more buyers than sellers, which is keeping home prices high [12] Proposed Solutions and Policies - The Senate Banking Committee passed the "Reinvention of the American Dream Act" to cut red tape and encourage funding for state housing programs, with an emphasis on manufactured housing (which is over 25% cheaper than site-built homes) [4] - The industry views building more affordable housing and incentivizing opportunity zones and smaller lot sizes through government programs as a way forward [5] - The industry views 50-year mortgages as not necessarily lowering costs, as they involve paying down more interest than principle and not building equity [6][7][8] - A medium correction in home prices of 10% would help, but rates need to come down by at least 100 basis points to make housing more affordable [12][13] Demographic and Social Factors - The average age of homebuyers is 59, up 50% from 2010 [2] - 26% of adults live alone, which doesn't help the housing inventory [14] - Only one in 10 seniors can afford to live in assisted living, causing many to stay in their homes [15] - There is a chronic undersupply of home healthcare aids, exacerbated by a slowdown in immigration [17]

Group 1: BlackRock and Renovo Home Partners - BlackRock Inc. has revised its valuation of the private debt extended to Renovo Home Partners from 100 cents on the dollar to zero following Renovo's bankruptcy filing [7][8] - Renovo, a company formed by private equity firm Audax Group, had previously undergone a recapitalization in April, where lenders converted some loans into equity to help the company recover [8] - Despite the financial struggles, BlackRock and MidCap Financial had marked the Renovo debt at par until the end of September, indicating an expectation of full repayment [9] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Fed Funds Rate - The relationship between mortgage rates and the Federal Reserve's fed funds rate has been misunderstood, as mortgage rates have been more closely tied to the interest on 10-year Treasury notes [10][12] - Factors influencing longer-term Treasury yields include economic growth expectations, fiscal policies, inflation expectations, and borrower credit risk, which can lead to mortgage rates moving in opposite directions from short-term rates [12] Group 3: AI and Investment Bubbles - The concept of "Inflection Bubbles" is introduced, which are characterized by beneficial long-term effects and fewer harmful side effects compared to "Mean-reversion Bubbles" [13][14] - Investments in AI are driving significant advancements in infrastructure, particularly in chip manufacturing and power generation, which are expected to have long-term utility [20][21] - The current AI bubble is fostering innovation and funding for new technologies, including novel chip designs and lithography machines, which may not have received attention otherwise [22][23][24] Group 4: E-Commerce and AI Integration - An interview discusses the challenges of product visibility in Google search results compared to AI models like ChatGPT, with AI providing more accurate recommendations [25][30] - Amazon is positioned to benefit from the integration of AI in e-commerce, as it consistently ranks highest in consumer trust and delivery speed [31] - Walmart has removed restrictions on multichannel fulfillment, allowing third-party sellers to utilize Amazon's distribution network, which could enhance competition in the e-commerce space [32][33]

Rental Market Dynamics - High home prices are driving more Americans to consider rental options [1] - Invitation Homes' renewal rate was approximately 77% through Q2, with customers staying for about 40 months [2][3] - There is demand for new rental products, with Invitation Homes delivering approximately 1,500 new homes through builder networks in the first two quarters [3] Housing Market Challenges - New home sales data for July came in at 652,000, an 82% year-on-year decline [1] - The cost of homeownership, including property taxes, insurance, and HOA fees, combined with mortgage rates, makes renting approximately $1,000 per month cheaper in Invitation Homes' markets [4] - There is a mismatch between seller and buyer expectations, leading to sellers pulling listings rather than lowering prices [4][5] - The number of units on the market for sale has increased from approximately 1 million three years ago to approximately 2 million, indicating a liquidity issue rather than a supply issue [6] Mortgage Rate Impact - 16-19% of Invitation Homes' customers are moving out to purchase a home, lower than the typical 20-25% [8] - A decrease of 100 basis points in mortgage rates could potentially stimulate more aggressive buyer activity in the housing market [10]

Core Insights - New home sales for July reached 652,000, which is stronger than expected but represents an 8.2% decline year-on-year [1] - The rental market is benefiting from high home prices, leading more Americans to seek rental options [1][2] New Home Sales and Market Dynamics - Home builder sentiment is positive, with new construction performing well over the past 3 to 5 years [2] - The renewal rate for rental properties is approximately 77%, with customers staying for about 40 months [3] - There is a demand for new rental products, with around 1,500 homes delivered through builder networks [3] Cost and Pricing Issues - High costs, including property taxes and insurance, have made renting about $1,000 per month cheaper than owning a home [4] - There is a mismatch between seller expectations and buyer willingness to lower prices, leading to fewer transactions [5][6] Inventory and Liquidity - The number of homes on the market has increased from about 1 million three years ago to approximately 2 million today, indicating a liquidity issue rather than a supply issue [6][7] - Current sales are at a seasonally adjusted rate of just over 4 million units, down from the typical range of 5 to 6 million units over the past 5 to 10 years [7] Buyer Behavior and Mortgage Rates - Only 16% to 19% of customers are moving out to purchase homes, down from the typical 20% to 25% [8] - A reduction in mortgage rates by 100 basis points could stimulate more aggressive buying behavior in the market [10]

Let's start first of all with a broad macro question. Is a 50-year mortgage good for the housing market. >> You know, the administration's very admiraable in trying to help the housing market, but at this point in time, you know, getting a 50-year amortization loan wouldn't benefit the housing market too much.uh if mortgage rates just head down towards 6% like it has recently and just stays here for a longer period of time, the 30-year fix is is perfectly fine just to get sales to grow just a little bit. >> ...

Mortgage rates in the US increased for a second week, adding to costs for homebuyers already facing a precarious economy https://t.co/TiH55SjerU ...

UK estate agents are understandably cautious as pre-budget jitters grip the housing market. And yet, all the recent uninspiring UK economic data may offer a silver lining of sorts for residential property prices - falling mortgage rates. https://t.co/gIX5rkTAbQ ...