RT Santiment (@santimentfeed)🇺🇸 The highly anticipated FOMC meetings in the US kick off today, and will conclude tomorrow with an anticipated result of interest rates being cut by 25bps.👀 We are seeing the impact of this in Bitcoin's social metrics. Bullish comments are outnumbering bearish comments, making up 64% of comments across social media. This is the highest ratio of crowd greed since July 10th.😱 Historically, markets move the opposite direction of retail's expectations. This doesn't necessarily mea ...

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates at the end of their September meeting. Chair Jerome Powell has been under intense pressure by President Donald Trump to lower rates for months. Last month, Chair Powell opened the door to a rate cut, pointing to rising risks for the labor market even as worries over inflation remain. Our special "Bloomberg Surveillance: The Fed Decides," begins at 1:30 pm ET. Guests include: Charles Schwab's Kathy Jones SocGen's Subadra Rajappa Former New York Fed ...

Market Trend & Analysis - A cut in interest rates could lead to mortgage refinancing, lowering monthly payments for individuals [1] - The banking system may experience increased revenue due to extended loan terms resulting from interest rate cuts [1] - Searches for "help with mortgage" have surpassed levels seen during the 2008 housing crisis, indicating potential financial strain [1] Potential Risks - The search query trend for "help with mortgage" may resemble a "memecoin chart that just rugged" in 4-6 months, suggesting a possible rapid decline or negative outcome [1]

Treasuries rose as strong retail sales didn’t shake bets that the Fed will start cutting rates to support the labor market https://t.co/SxkiZF95Dl ...

RT THE HUNTER ✴️ (@TrueGemHunter)The most important #FOMC meeting of the year in just 1 day and a few hours.Will they cut rates by 25 or 50 bps ...

Federal Reserve and Economic Projections - The Senate confirmed Stephen Meyer as a temporary Fed member, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest due to his dual role in the White House [2][3] - The market is currently pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut, with speculation about a possible 50 basis point cut depending on economic projections [4][6] - The summary of economic projections will be crucial in determining future rate movements and inflation expectations [5][8] Market Reactions and Trends - Equity markets are moving higher as yields on 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds decline, indicating a favorable rate environment [6][7] - The dollar is weakening, reaching its lowest point since July, which typically signals aggressive rate cuts [7] - Gold prices are hitting record highs, driven by its role as an inflation hedge and the ongoing purchases by central banks [10][11] Labor Market and Inflation Concerns - There are concerns about labor market weakness, which may influence the Fed's decisions moving forward [20] - The potential for persistent inflation remains, with wage growth needing to outpace inflation for positive economic outcomes [15][16] Oracle and TikTok Deal Speculation - Oracle's stock is experiencing upward momentum due to speculation about its involvement in a potential TikTok deal, positioning it as a key player in US-China trade discussions [26][28] - Other social media stocks, such as Meta, are not facing significant downward pressure, indicating a broader market optimism [29]

Canadian underlying price pressures eased, even as the headline rate quickened slightly, clearing the way for the central bank to resume cutting interest rates this week https://t.co/R0pIvT5BDY ...

The most important #FOMC meeting of the year in just 1 day and a few hours.Will they cut rates by 25 or 50 bps ...

Trade & Tariffs - The US bond market is performing well due to revenue from tariffs, expected to bring in hundreds of billions of dollars this year to pay down the debt [26] - Chinese exports to the US are down approximately 14%, while exports to Europe are up approximately 6.9% [51] - The US trade deficit with China is expected to narrow by at least 30% this year and potentially more in 2026 [52] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - A 25 basis point rate cut is priced in [14] - The market is pricing in 75 basis points in rate cuts between now and the end of the year [18] - The Fed has an employment and growth mandate, with the dollar being a byproduct [8] - The President believes the Fed has been behind the curve [13][15] TikTok Deal & National Security - A framework for a deal regarding TikTok has been reached, with President Trump and party chair Xi expected to agree on a final deal [29][32] - The deal includes safeguards for US national security and the interests of citizens, especially children [37] - The Chinese government's approval is needed for the deal between ByteDance and new investors [37] Deregulation & Economic Growth - The US market is responding positively to President Trump's agenda, particularly non-inflationary growth and deregulation [23] - The administration aims to cut through the regulatory morass surrounding American businesses [23] - Deregulation is seen as crucial for the US to become an AI superpower and energy dominant [24]

Core Insights - The Zelman Housing Summit has evolved from a focus on residential housing to include multifamily, GSEs, labor, and land issues [3] - Interest rates were a major topic, with the 10-year yield dropping unexpectedly, leading to discussions about future rate cuts and their limited impact on long-term rates [4][5][6] - The future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is uncertain, with concerns about their management and potential privatization [7][8][9] - A land crisis is identified as a significant issue for builders, with calls for more land entitlements and easing of zoning restrictions [11][12] - Labor shortages are a pressing concern, exacerbated by fears of ICE raids, highlighting the need for a healthy immigration policy [13][14][15] Interest Rates - The 10-year yield dropped to 4.01%, surprising industry experts [5] - Historical analysis indicates that rate cuts during recessions lower long-term yields, but cuts outside of recessions have little effect [5][6] - Expectations for at least two 25 basis point cuts in the near future, but limited impact on long-term rates anticipated [6] Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - The future of GSEs is critical for builders, with uncertainty surrounding potential actions from the Trump administration [7] - Fannie and Freddie provided liquidity during periods when banks were less active in lending [7] - Concerns about management and governance of Fannie and Freddie, with comparisons to WeWork's governance issues [8][9] Land Issues - A statement from industry leaders indicates a land crisis rather than a housing crisis, emphasizing the need for more land entitlements [11] - Suggestions for the Trump administration to facilitate land access and ease zoning restrictions [11][12] Labor Challenges - Labor shortages are a significant barrier to construction, with smaller builders particularly affected by fears of ICE raids [13] - Public builders report overall labor shortages, despite not facing major issues with ICE raids [14] - Advocacy for a healthy immigration policy to support labor needs in the construction industry [15]