Turkey’s central bank will announce its year-end inflation forecast on Thursday, with the magnitude of any upward revision set to shape expectations for the course of interest rates https://t.co/SXnZBbch71 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. economy**, focusing on the implications of **tariffs** and **inflation** on market dynamics and Federal Reserve policy decisions. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Reactions to FOMC Meeting**: The market's pricing for the September FOMC meeting fluctuated significantly, with initial expectations for a rate cut shifting after Chair Powell's comments, indicating ongoing uncertainty in economic conditions [2][5]. 2. **Nonfarm Payrolls Impact**: The July nonfarm payrolls report showed a downward revision of 258k for May and June, the largest revision outside of the Covid period, altering the market's narrative regarding the U.S. economy [2][5]. 3. **Inflation Trends**: The June CPI indicated the onset of tariff-driven inflation, with effective tariff rates rising from 8.7% in May to 8.9% in June, while announced rates exceed 15%. This discrepancy is attributed to supply chain dynamics and timing of tariff applications [3][4]. 4. **Inventory Management Effects**: Companies, particularly in the auto sector, are delaying price increases until new inventory arrives, which may further postpone inflation pass-through to consumers [4]. 5. **Fed's Balancing Act**: The Federal Reserve's decision in September will need to balance inflation pressures against employment data, with tariff uncertainties continuing to complicate the economic outlook [5][7]. 6. **Upcoming Economic Data**: The importance of forthcoming CPI and jobs data is emphasized, as they will be critical in shaping the Fed's decisions regarding interest rates [2][7]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Sector-Specific Inflation**: The analysis indicates that about 80% of the surge in "front loading" inventory in Q1 was concentrated in just seven product categories, suggesting that inflationary pressures may not be as widespread as initially thought [4]. 2. **Consumer Sentiment**: The University of Michigan's survey showed long-run inflation expectations declining to 3.4% in July, with consumer sentiment rebounding but still below last year's levels [22]. 3. **Global Economic Indicators**: Other global economic indicators, such as China's broad credit growth and Japan's GDP forecasts, are also mentioned, reflecting a broader context of economic performance [9][19][20]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between tariffs, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy in the current economic landscape.

U.S. equities edged higher at midday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq adding to their record closes, on optimism the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next month. https://t.co/RoX2DOHFM9 ...

Economic Performance - Russia's economy experienced growth last quarter, avoiding a recession [1] Market Dynamics - The growth occurred despite pressure from very high interest rates [1]

RT 🚨BSC Gems Alert🚨 (@BSCGemsAlert)BREAKING🇺🇸 FED WILL CUT RATES IN SEPTEMBERODDS ARE NOW 99.8% 🔥 https://t.co/Ogcwl5bL2m ...

Mortgage Market Trends - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased to 653%, the lowest since October [1] - Refinance applications surged 23% last week, marking the strongest week since April [1][2] - Refinance applications now account for nearly half of all applications [2] - Home buyer applications increased by only 1% for the week [2] Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) Dynamics - Adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) applications jumped 25% to their highest level since 2022 [2] - The ARM share increased to nearly 10% of all applications [2] - The average rate on a 5-in-1 ARM dropped to 580% from 606% [3] - The increase in ARM demand is unusual given the falling interest rates [3]

RT 🚨BSC Gems Alert🚨 (@BSCGemsAlert)BREAKING🇺🇸 FED WILL CUT RATES IN SEPTEMBERODDS ARE NOW 99.8% 🔥 https://t.co/Ogcwl5bL2m ...

🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID THE FEDSHOULD LOWER INTERESTS RATES BY3 OR 4 POINTS TO 1%CURRENT RATES ARE 4.25% - 4.50% https://t.co/XQhSRsVfRQ ...

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS THE FED SHOULD LOWER INTEREST RATES BY 3 OR 4 POINTS TO 1% 👀MEGA BULLISH! https://t.co/JFdBqiXxmY ...

RT 🚨BSC Gems Alert🚨 (@BSCGemsAlert)BREAKING🇺🇸 FED WILL CUT RATES IN SEPTEMBERODDS ARE NOW 99.8% 🔥 https://t.co/Ogcwl5bL2m ...