Inflation & Employment Risks - Inflation risks are tilted to the upside, while employment risks lean towards the downside [1] - The framework necessitates balancing both sides of the dual mandate [1] Monetary Policy Stance - The policy rate is 100 basis points closer to neutral than a year ago [2] - The stability of the unemployment rate allows for careful consideration of policy changes [2] - With policy in restrictive territory, adjustments to the policy stance may be warranted [2] - Monetary policy is not on a preset course [3] - Decisions will be based solely on data assessment and its implications for the economic outlook and balance of risks [3]

Inflation & Tariffs - The Fed acknowledges that higher tariffs have started to increase prices in certain categories [2] - July's core PCE is observed at 2.9%, a 0.1% increase from June, with notable upward pressure on goods and downward pressure on housing and non-housing services [2] - The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible and expected to accumulate in the coming months, although the base case assumes these effects will be relatively short-lived [3] - It will take time for the tariffs to fully impact supply chains [3] Labor Market - Job growth slowdown is more significant than previously estimated, with substantial downward revisions [4] - The labor market is in a curious balance, characterized by slowing supply and demand for workers [5] - The break-even rate required to maintain a stable unemployment rate has been sharply reduced due to immigration policies [5] - Risks to the labor market could lead to rapid increases in layoffs and unemployment, prompting caution regarding rate levels [6] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The shifting balance of risk may warrant adjustments to the Fed's policy stance [1] - Current policy is modestly restrictive, but the stability of the unemployment rate allows the Fed to proceed cautiously [1] - Inflation risks are to the upside, while employment risks are to the downside [1] - The Fed aims to take a balanced approach to its dual mandate [2] - Economic growth has slowed notably in the first half [6]

Your latest thoughts then ahead of Jackson Hole. Mark, earlier this week, you were very preoccupied by the political pressure being applied to the Fed and what that will either in the short term or longer term due to the long end of the curve. Absolutely.I think the really important thing to remember that that going into Jackson Hole this weekend, it's clearly going to be market moving. Today, there seems to be a complete divide in the market, whether it be hawkish or dovish. For what it's worth and not ver ...

Welcome back to Squawk Box. Joining us now Jeremy Siegel, chief economist at Wisdomtree and professor emeritus of finance at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business. Good to see you, Jeremy.We have had guys like Kevin Warsh will mention tariff inflation. He'll say tariffs aren't what causes inflation. Never has been, never will be.Inflation is caused by an out of control money supply or too much stimulus stimulus in a supply constrained world, in your view. And what you're saying here, up th ...

Inflation & Monetary Policy - The Fed's stance on policy and AI initiatives could be reasons why inflation expectations are under control [1] - Tariffs are considered one-off changes in price and are not expected to metastasize into long-term inflation [1] - The speaker disagrees with the idea that many jobs are being left on the table [1] - The speaker suggests that the current focus is on fighting the last battle [1] Fed Chair Candidacy & Perspective - The speaker has been in contact with many people in the administration, discussing similar agenda points [4] - The speaker believes having more market-savvy individuals involved in monetary policy decisions would be beneficial [8] - The speaker acknowledges the importance of understanding and debating economic models used by the Fed, despite not being a big believer in them [7] - The speaker would not divorce their market strategist perspective if they were to become Fed Chair [5] Treasury Secretary - The speaker has known the Treasury Secretary for well over a decade and has high expectations for their performance [2][3] - The speaker believes the Treasury Secretary has exceeded even the loftiest of expectations [3]

Federal Reserve Nomination - President intends to nominate Steven Mir, chair of his council of economic advisers, to the open seat created by Audriana Cougler's departure [1] - Nomination might be considered for the October meeting, with a very difficult outside chance for the September meeting [2] Economic Policy Implications - Steven Mir is seen as an intellectual architect of the president's policies, including devaluing the US dollar to help US manufacturing [2] - Mir is a critic of the trade deficit and believed to be a key author of the Mara Lago accords, potentially involving a 100-year bond to foreign holders of US debt in a non-interest bearing account [2] - Rethinking trade is a significant aspect of the president's agenda, and a looser monetary policy could devalue the US dollar [3]

News just out from the Fed is on the Fed governors who dissented at this week's meeting. Steve Leeman joins us right now. He's got more on that front.Hi, Steve. Hey. Uh, governors Waller and Bowman continuing that tradition of explaining their descents on the Friday after the meeting.And, uh, they're both saying why they, uh, wanted or preferred a quarter point rate cut. Waller saying that tariffs are one-off price increases and do not cause inflation. Echoing uh, speeches he gave before the meeting.He said ...

Hi, Chair Pal. Uh, Nancy Marshall Gendzer with Marketplace. Um, one more question on the, uh, lack of unonymity in today's decision, the two descents.Was there talk during the meeting, I know you're not going to talk about what exactly what individuals said, but in general, was there talk during the meeting of cutting rates and what was the case against that at the meeting. >> Sure. So you know we have we have an economic goaround where people talk about the economy and then the next and today that's yester ...

Hi, Chair Pal. Thank you. Uh well, can you give us a little more about what kind of economic data does the Fed need to see before uh you'll be ready to cut.I mean, do you need inflation back nearly to target. Uh are there other things in the pricing that you look for. Do you need to see weakening in the job market.What kind of things are you are you looking for. I mean, ultimately, it's it could be any could be any of those things, right. But but you know if you saw that the risks to the two goals were movi ...

Policy Watch Global Markets Research Economics - North America July FOMC Preview Research Analysts North America Economics David Seif - NSI david.seif@nomura.com +1 212 667 9180 Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com +1 212 667 9347 Jeremy Schwartz - NSI jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com +1 212 667 9637 Ruchir Sharma - NSI ruchir.sharma@nomura.com +1 212 667 9186 Jacklyn Goloborodsky - NSI jacklyn.goloborodsky@nomura.com Fig. 1: The FOMC will likely keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.375% at the July meetin ...