And yet on the committee, we have pushback almost. Maybe after that, Fed Governor Michael Barr had this to say. I'm concerned that we're seeing inflation still around 3%.Inflation is closer to three, that it is to two. What do you make of that argument. How persuasive is it.It's not persuasive to me, and I'll tell you why. All of the inflation excess, almost all of the inflation excess is a mirage. It's not indicative of supply demand imbalances.And so, for example, if you look at the housing market, right, ...

Group 1 - The March Euro currency futures are showing a downward trend, indicating a selling opportunity due to bearish technical advantages [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on U.S. monetary policy is bullish for the U.S. dollar and bearish for the Euro, compounded by budget concerns in the European Union and political issues in France [2] - A breach of the November low support level at 1.1545 in March Euro currency futures would empower bears and present a selling opportunity, with a downside target of 1.1200 [3] Group 2 - Technical resistance for protective buy stops is identified at 1.1700, indicating a strategic point for traders [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is adopting a cautious approach towards cryptocurrencies and stablecoins due to their associated risks [1][6]. Regulatory Approach - The Indian government is yet to decide on the regulation of cryptocurrencies, with a working group established to evaluate how to handle crypto assets in the country [4]. - India is leaning towards maintaining partial oversight of cryptocurrencies rather than creating comprehensive legislation, citing concerns over systemic risks [5]. Digital Innovations - The RBI has a more accommodating stance towards digital innovations such as the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and digital lending, contrasting with its cautious approach to cryptocurrencies [2]. Market Context - U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins have a market capitalization exceeding $300 billion, while the overall cryptocurrency market cap has surpassed $4 trillion [3]. - The rising popularity of U.S. dollar stablecoins is expected to pose challenges for global monetary policy in the coming year [2]. Trading Environment - The RBI's warnings about the risks associated with cryptocurrencies have led to a near freeze in trading between India's formal financial system and cryptocurrencies [6].

The central bank’s inflation miss in the first three months of the year was 0.7 percentage points — the biggest gap in almost six years, and well above economists’ projections. Estimates in the subsequent two quarters have also been off the mark, by smaller margins of 0.2 points and 0.1 points, respectively. Economists predict another big miss in the current quarter after a surprisingly low inflation print in October. That means the RBI’s projection of 2.6% for the fiscal year through March, published as r ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant selloff on November 14, with Bitcoin's price dropping below $96,000 for the first time in six months, reflecting a decline of over 20% from its October high of more than $126,000 [1] Market Overview - Major cryptocurrencies, including Ether, Solana, and Binance's BNB, saw declines ranging from 6% to over 10%, indicating a broad market retreat [2] - Crypto-linked equities, such as Coinbase and Strategy, also faced losses, with share prices falling more than 1% and 3% respectively [2] Investment Implications - The rapid depreciation and volatility in the cryptocurrency market should prompt investors to reassess their positions in Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and other crypto-linked investments [3] Market Drivers - The primary catalyst for the recent selloff is a shift in sentiment regarding macroeconomic risks and monetary policy, with traders reducing expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to delayed economic data [4] - Liquidity in the market has significantly decreased, with Bitcoin-investing ETFs experiencing outflows of approximately $870 million, marking the second-largest withdrawal since their introduction in January 2024 [5] - Analysts have confirmed that the crypto market has entered a bear regime, citing weakening ETF flows and continued selling by long-term holders [5] ETF Analysis - The substantial outflows from ETFs and the confirmation of a bear regime indicate a decline in institutional and long-term support, suggesting that investors should review their exposure to Bitcoin ETFs [7] - iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has net assets of $75.44 billion and has risen 0.8% year to date, with an average daily trading volume of 62.55 million shares [8] - Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) has net assets of $22.50 billion, gaining 0.7% year to date, with an average daily volume of 5 million shares [9] - Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) has assets under management of $16.01 billion, but has lost 0.3% year to date, with an average daily volume of 5.54 million shares [10][11] - Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) has a net asset value of $93.99, gaining 0.7% year to date, with an average daily volume of 187,517 shares [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is shifting, with officials expressing concerns that further cuts could exacerbate inflation rather than support the labor market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid indicated that additional interest-rate cuts might solidify higher inflation instead of aiding the cooling labor market [2][3]. - Schmid's remarks have influenced market expectations regarding a potential interest-rate cut in December, which was previously anticipated with near certainty [2][3]. - The Fed's dual mandate requires balancing price stability and low unemployment, complicating monetary policy decisions [3]. Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation - Pre-shutdown data showed unemployment stable at 4.3%, but there are rising concerns about fewer job openings and new hires [4]. - Annual inflation stands at 3%, above the Fed's 2% target, indicating ongoing price pressures despite a recent interest rate cut [5]. - The increase in costs for essentials like groceries, rent, and utilities is affecting household and business sentiment towards the economy [6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Challenges - Price pressures are attributed to both tariff-related inflation and emerging concerns in the service sector, particularly in elder-care and day-care costs [9]. - The government shutdown has created a data gap, forcing the Fed to rely on private surveys and alternative data sources for economic indicators [9].

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Group 1: Federal Reserve and Liquidity Management - The Federal Reserve is promoting the use of its Standing Repo Facility (SRF) to help manage liquidity needs as reserve levels decline and money market rates rise [2][3] - The SRF, launched in 2021, allows eligible firms to quickly access cash in exchange for Treasury securities, aiming to enhance market liquidity [3] - The New York Fed plans to integrate morning SRF operations to improve the facility's effectiveness and assist in reducing the Fed's balance sheet [3] Group 2: Hedge Fund Regulation - The SEC is exploring methods to ease the transition to a new rule requiring hedge funds and other firms to centrally clear a larger portion of their U.S. Treasury trades [4][5] - Previous regulatory actions have aimed to increase transparency and oversight in the private fund industry, which has grown in complexity [5] Group 3: Data Center Debt and AI Infrastructure - The rapid expansion of data centers for AI infrastructure is leading to a surge in debt financing, with projections of $5 trillion in investments [6] - Investors are becoming cautious about junk bond deals funding data center construction, particularly those linked to AI, due to concerns over long-term demand and hardware depreciation [6][8] - The short lifespan of AI hardware (2-4 years) presents refinancing challenges, with potential annual depreciation reaching $40 billion against revenues of only $15-20 billion [8] Group 4: Libya's Oil Production - Libya's Zallaf Oil & Gas has commenced its first oil shipment from the Shadar field, achieving an initial production rate of 1,500 barrels of crude oil per day and over 7.5 million cubic feet of associated gas [9][10] - This development aligns with Libya's national plan to boost hydrocarbon production and attract new investments in the energy sector [10]

Group 1 - Concerns over an AI bubble have resurfaced following SoftBank's $5.8 billion sale of its stake in Nvidia, impacting investor sentiment in the AI sector [3] - Asian markets showed strength as optimism grew for a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown, which may influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [2][5] - Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook for China's monetary policy, delaying expectations for a "dual cut" in interest rates and reserve requirements to early 2026, indicating a less dovish stance from the People's Bank of China [4] Group 2 - Oil prices remained stable near $61 a barrel as traders awaited new forecasts from OPEC and the International Energy Agency regarding potential market surpluses from rising supply [6] - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Brad Jones noted that markets are struggling to accurately price geopolitical risks, with early signs of fragmentation in central bank gold holdings [7] - Sony launched a Japan-only, region-locked PlayStation 5 Digital Edition at ¥55,000, aiming to reclaim market share from rival Nintendo [8]