Joining me now is Shenika McClendon, vice president of political strategy at Crooked Media, along with former Florida representative and MSNBC political analyst Carlos Kubelloo. Chenika, starting with you, new deadline at the end of the day. Yeah, it is.um you know they can say July 9th is when everything has to get done but if the tariffs are not going to return to these elevated places until August 1st that means there's another month of time that these countries can use to negotiate I think Donald Trump ...

On this episode of the Everybody's Business podcast, @AllisonSchrager joins @svaneksmith and @BradStone to discuss President Trump's Big Beautiful Bill and why the generally healthy and strong US economy is in need of some lifestyle tweaks https://t.co/i51n7zR9iH https://t.co/rSXPldIJtO ...

- Ignore the tariffs for a second. Inflation is behaving pretty much exactly as we have expected and hope that it would. We haven't seen effects much yet from tariffs and we didn't expect to by now.We've always said that the timing, amount, and persistence of the inflation would be highly uncertain, and it's certainly improved that. So, we're watching, we expect to see, over the summer, some readings, higher readings, but we're prepared to learn that it can be higher or lower or later or sooner than we'd ex ...

Inflation Trends - Inflation is behaving as expected, even without considering tariffs [1] - The timing, amount, and persistence of inflation remain highly uncertain [1] - Higher inflation readings are expected over the summer [2] - Inflation forecasts for the United States increased materially due to tariffs [3] Monetary Policy - The Fed paused its actions upon observing the size of the tariffs [3] - The Fed is waiting to assess the effects of tariffs on the US economy [4] - The US economy is currently in solid shape [4]

Inflation Outlook - The Federal Reserve anticipates that inflation data will increase during the summer [1] - The Federal Reserve chairman stated that inflation performance is in line with expectations [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve paused action upon observing the scale of tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve believes waiting and obtaining more information is a prudent approach [1] - As long as the U S economy remains strong, a cautious approach of waiting is advisable [1]

Let's set the scene. We talk about the first half of 2025. At the start of the year, the ten year yield was at 4.56%.It rose to 4.8% shortly before Donald Trump took office. After Liberation Day, it sunk to 3.86%. Now we're stuck at around 4.27%.That's a pretty wide range and it feels like everything has been priced in at some point during this year. What's not priced in. So what's nice about it so far, by the way.I'd say a couple of things. By the way, the best return opportunity this year across debt and ...

Fed Policy & Interest Rates - The market anticipates potential rate cuts by the Fed, with a majority expecting at least one cut [1] - The author disagrees with the need for rate cuts, questioning the rationale given the current economic conditions [1] - The US economy is considered less sensitive to interest rates due to its technology and service-oriented nature, except for the housing market [2] - The Fed has raised interest rates by 500 basis points [1] Housing Market & Inflation - The US faces a housing inventory shortage, and lowering interest rates could reduce inflation by incentivizing home building [3] - High mortgage rates are forcing home builders to subsidize mortgages, hindering construction and keeping inventory low [3] - Lowering mortgage rates could address shelter inflation, a persistent component of overall inflation [4] Treasury & Debt Management - The Treasury Secretary's focus is on the ten-year yield, anticipating a parallel downward shift in the curve as inflation decreases [5] - The Treasury Secretary can influence the ten-year yield by adjusting the size and term of debt auctions [6] - Extending the term of the debt should be considered after inflation is under control and rates have come down [7] Fed Tools & Market Influence - The Federal Reserve possesses tools, such as Operation Twist, to manage the back end of the yield curve [8]

Economic Data Quality - Mild degradation in the scope of surveys is observed [1] - The direction of travel regarding US economic data measurement is a concern [1] - Continuous improvement in economic data measurement is a smart investment [2] - Concerns exist about data becoming more volatile and less reliable [2] Impact on Decision-Making - Accurate economic data is crucial for the Fed, Congress, and businesses [1] - Reliable data is essential for understanding economic growth (high or low) [2] - Less reliable data will make it more difficult for the private sector [2]

US Economy Resilience - US economy is durable and can withstand a 15% effective tariff [1] - US economy is performing well, contrary to recession predictions [2] Market Sentiment - Markets are awaiting news regarding tariffs on China and Europe to stabilize [2] - Investors are holding a significant amount of cash, waiting for market clarity [2] - Abundance of cash is driving equity market increases [3]