Core Viewpoint - Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields have risen as the market digests the outcome of the recent Federal Reserve meeting, indicating a reassessment of monetary policy [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - Short-dated U.S. Treasury yields have declined, while yields on maturities of 10 years or longer have increased [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.26%, reflecting market adjustments following the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Meeting Impact - The Federal Reserve emphasized economic resilience, which has alleviated concerns regarding inflation and employment [1] - Policymakers have countered aggressive easing expectations, thereby supporting U.S. rates despite the dollar's struggle to regain momentum [1]

About CLEAR The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 requires each of the Reserve Banks to operate under the supervision of a board of directors. Each Reserve Bank has nine directors who represent the interests of their Reserve District and whose experience provides the Reserve Banks with a wider range of expertise that helps them fulfill their policy and operational responsibilities. The directors of the Reserve Banks act as an important link between the Federal Reserve and the private sector, ensuring that the Fed ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicated that current indicators show the U.S. economy is in "robust expansion," but uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high [1] - Employment growth continues to be sluggish, with some signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, while inflation remains at elevated levels [1] Group 2 - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that future monetary policy decisions will be based on new data, with 10 out of 12 FOMC members supporting the decision to maintain rates [2] - Powell mentioned that the current federal funds rate is generally "neutral," and core inflation in the U.S. is expected to reach around 3% by December [2] - If inflation peaks and begins to decline as previously anticipated, the Fed may consider easing monetary policy, especially if the labor market does not stabilize [2] Group 3 - Powell advised the next Fed chair to avoid involvement in electoral politics, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence [3] - The market currently estimates an 88.6% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the next monetary policy meeting, an increase from 82.7% the previous day [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the global housing market, with an average annual nominal growth of 2.4% across 55 markets in Q3 2025, signaling a modest improvement in pricing conditions [2][6]. Core Insights - Global house price growth strengthened in Q3 2025, with a rise to 2.4% from 2.2% in Q2, marking the highest growth since Q1 2024. This growth is supported by a shift in monetary policy, with central banks implementing 27 net rate cuts and no hikes during the quarter [2][3][6]. - Turkey leads the index with a nominal annual growth of 32.2%, although real growth is negative at -0.8%. Other notable markets include North Macedonia (25.1%) and Portugal (17.7%), with a significant presence of European markets in the top rankings [3][4]. - Despite nominal growth, global real house price growth remains slightly negative at -0.1% year-on-year, indicating that inflation continues to impact purchasing power and affordability [5][6]. Market Analysis - In Q3 2025, 86.3% of tracked markets experienced positive annual growth, reflecting a gradual improvement in market momentum [4][6]. - The report highlights that a sustained improvement in real growth will require further policy support and a clearer reduction in price pressures, as current nominal gains are not translating into real benefits for consumers [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate cuts after three reductions, with expectations for potential future cuts depending on economic data and labor market conditions [1][2][3]. Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by a total of 175 basis points since September 2024, with the current Fed funds rate just below 3.65% [1]. - There is a consensus among some economists that two more cuts may be appropriate to bring rates down to the low 3% range [2][3]. Economic Indicators - Progress on services inflation is viewed as significant, and there is a focus on labor market weaknesses without immediate panic regarding inflationary factors [3][4]. - Current job data appears strong, but recent layoffs from companies like Amazon and UPS raise concerns about potential future job market weaknesses [9][12]. Federal Reserve Independence - The importance of the Federal Reserve's independence from political influence was emphasized, as it is crucial for maintaining the institution's credibility and serving the public interest [15][17]. - Dissent among Federal Reserve voters is noted, with some advocating for rate cuts despite positive economic indicators, indicating differing views on monetary policy [18][20].

Group 1 - The effects of tariffs have significantly influenced goods prices, with most price increases attributed to tariffs rather than demand, which is a more complex issue to address [1][2] - Core PCE inflation is slightly above 2% when excluding the impact of tariffs on goods, indicating a stable inflation environment, while disinflation is observed in service categories, which is a positive sign [3] - It is expected that the impact of tariffs on goods prices will peak and then decline, provided there are no new major tariff increases, which could allow for a loosening of monetary policy [4] Group 2 - The labor market's stabilization is crucial; if downside risks reemerge or data worsens, it will necessitate a reassessment of economic policies [5] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman by President Trump before May raises questions about the transition period and collaboration, but specifics remain uncertain [6]

Singapore left its monetary policy settings unchanged for a third straight review, while raising its forecast for inflation in a signal that its next move may be a tightening https://t.co/5wSkQ2QhEU ...

The bank's monetary policy committee kept the nation's benchmark rate at 15%, while indicating it may start cutting at its next meeting in March. ...

JONATHAN: FOR THE AUDIENCE WORLDWIDE, GOOD AFTERNOON. THE FED DECIDES STARTS RIGHT NOW. >> THIS IS A SPECIAL EDITION OF "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE." WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ AND TOM KEENE."BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE: THE FED DECIDES." JONATHAN: HERE WE GO AGAIN. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2026 THE RATE DECISION FROM THE FOMC 27 MINUTES AWAY. 30 MINUTES AFTER THAT, A NEWS CONFERENCE WITH CHAIRMAN POWELL.IT IS FAIR TO SAY THE LEAST ANTICIPATED FED MEETING OF THE LAST 12 MONTHS. TOM: YOU HAVE TAKEN THE KOOL-AI ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, focusing on employment, inflation, and economic growth. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth**: The U.S. economy expanded at a solid pace, with consumer spending remaining resilient and business fixed investment continuing to grow. However, the housing sector has shown weakness [2][3]. - **Labor Market**: The unemployment rate was stable at 4.4%, with job gains averaging 22,000 per month in non-farm payrolls. Private payrolls increased by an average of 29,000 per month, indicating some stabilization in the labor market [2][3][10]. - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation has eased from its mid-2022 highs but remains elevated. The total PCE prices rose by 2.9% over the past year, while core PCE prices increased by 3.0%. The elevated inflation is largely attributed to the goods sector, influenced by tariffs, while disinflation is observed in the services sector [3][4][39]. - **Monetary Policy Stance**: The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%. This decision follows a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points over the previous three meetings, aimed at stabilizing the labor market and guiding inflation towards the 2% target [4][5]. - **Future Rate Adjustments**: The Fed is positioned to adjust the policy rate based on incoming data and evolving economic conditions. The committee emphasized a meeting-by-meeting approach to decision-making [5][27]. - **Tariff Impact**: The effects of tariffs on goods prices are expected to peak and then decline, contributing to a one-time price increase rather than ongoing inflation. The Fed anticipates that as tariff effects diminish, it may allow for policy loosening [39][81]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Sentiment**: There is a disconnect between consumer sentiment surveys, which indicate negative perceptions of the economy, and actual consumer spending data, which remains strong [70][75]. - **AI and Labor Market**: The impact of AI on the labor market is being closely monitored, with concerns that it may supplant entry-level jobs. However, technological advancements are also expected to increase productivity over time [76][77]. - **Fiscal Policy Concerns**: The U.S. federal budget deficit is on an unsustainable path, which could pose long-term risks to the economy. The Fed emphasizes the need for addressing fiscal challenges [57][58]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical risks, particularly related to energy prices, are acknowledged, but the current economic outlook remains stable despite global uncertainties [85][86]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the U.S. economy, labor market dynamics, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy approach.