Oil prices spiking following Israel's strike on Iran, adding an inflationary input ahead of the Fed's meeting next week. Meanwhile, we just got a positive signal from the data. An early read on Michigan consumer sentiment for June coming in well above expectations.Also, inflation expectations fell. Joining us is former Dallas Fed President and CNBC contributor Richard Fiser. So Richard, is is it your view that this is just going to make the Fed even more patient on its stance to do anything because it has t ...

Well, investors shifting their focus back on the Federal Reserve ahead of the central bank's policy meeting next week. President Trump once again calling for Fed Chair Pal to cut rates for more on the path ahead for the Fed and interest rates. Let's get now to Loretta Mester, University of Pennsylvania adjunct professor and former Cleveland Federal Reserve President.Uh Loretta, always good to see you. So, let's start Loretta with that inflation report we got today. PPI tame Loretta benign just like CPI yest ...

继央行公布6月买断式逆回购操作后，本周市场投资情绪升温，债市表现可圈可点。 除了来自资金面的支撑外，供需关系的优化也将在一定程度上利好债市表现。 来自中金公司的研究观点指出，若不考虑年内增发，预计2025年包括政府类债券和政策性银行债在内的 利率债的净增量供给或呈现前高后低分布，一季度是同比多增最明显的季度。从二季度开始，供给压力 可能逐步缓解，到下半年或许会出现同比少增。不仅如此，若央行在二、三季度重启国债购买，那么供 需关系将会出现较大改善，有助于利率回落。 分析人士指出，现阶段随着短端行情的明显起势，长端利率也可能突破窄幅震荡区间，继续下行。对于 各机构而言，目前可考虑再度博弈久期品种带来的超额收益。 买方情绪积极 中央国债登记结算有限责任公司提供的数据显示，截至6月11日收盘，银行间利率债市场收益率整体下 行。举例来看，中债国债收益率曲线3M期限回落2BP至1.39%；2年期收益率下行1BP至1.42%；10年期 收益率下探1BP至1.64%。 根据券商调研，当前债市的买方情绪已逼近年内新高，有近半数受访机构看多债市。其中，56%的机构 均持偏多态度，近期央行开展逆回购操作、资金面整体偏松、非银机构配 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on global economic growth, with a focus on the impact of tariffs and inflationary pressures, suggesting a potential slowdown in investment opportunities [15][22][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant global growth slowdown, particularly in the US, with GDP growth expected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025 and 2026, driven by tariff-induced inflation and restrictive immigration policies [16][22]. - In the Euro area, growth is projected to remain around 1.0%, with inflation expected to undershoot the ECB's target due to a decline in private consumption and exports [17][22]. - Japan's economy is expected to show resilience, but inflation is moderating as the yen appreciates, leading to a hold on policy rates by the BoJ [18][22]. - China is anticipated to experience the largest slowdown, with real growth in 2025 expected to be 0.5 percentage points lower than in 2024, influenced by modest fiscal expansion and tariff impacts [19][22]. - India is projected to be the fastest-growing economy, with growth supported by domestic demand and fiscal policy, despite external headwinds [19][22]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to slow significantly, with core PCE inflation peaking at 4.5% in Q3 2025, while growth stalls by late 2025 [16][22]. - The Fed is anticipated to maintain its policy rate throughout 2025, with potential easing starting in March 2026 [16][22]. Euro Area Economic Outlook - Growth is forecasted to be below potential, with the ECB expected to cut rates to 1.5% by December 2025 due to weak economic activity [17][22]. Asia Economic Outlook - Tariff uncertainty is expected to weigh on growth in Asia, particularly affecting capital expenditures [24][25]. - China's GDP deflator is projected to remain negative, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [56]. CEEMEA and LatAm Economic Outlook - The CEEMEA region may see growth acceleration despite global uncertainties, while Brazil and Argentina are expected to fare better than Mexico amid the global slowdown [21][26]. - Mexico is significantly impacted by elevated global uncertainty, while Chile and Colombia are affected to a lesser extent [26][22]. Global Strategy - The report emphasizes that US risky and risk-free assets are attractive compared to the rest of the world, with a recommendation to overweight US equities and core fixed income [29][22].

I want to bring in our contributor for the hour. We've got Bob Lane back with us. He is explosive options technical analyst.A great voice to have when we are looking for clarity in the market because sometimes when the sentiment gets over its skis, you can bring us back to earth with the technicals. I want to start on the inflation data. We saw the market have a significant move to the upside.We're coming in just a bit off of that. How would you describe the market reaction. Uh quite a bit of a surprise, Ma ...

Defence Spending Outlook - The UK government plans to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, up from 2.3% in 2024, with a long-term goal of reaching 3.0% in the next Parliament[4] - This increase is expected to generate a near-term demand boost of approximately 0.15%[6] - Additional demand from increased European defence spending could raise demand by a further 0.1%[19] Economic Implications - The fiscal impulse model indicates that the increase to 2.5% of GDP will boost demand, but broader fiscal consolidation keeps the overall fiscal impulse negative[14] - If defence spending reaches 3.0% of GDP, the demand boost could be limited to an additional 0.15% due to potential tax increases and spending restraint in other departments[34] - The long-term impact on GDP growth is contingent on whether increased spending enhances supply capacity, particularly through R&D investments[41] Funding and Fiscal Constraints - The increase in defence spending will be financed by cuts to the foreign aid budget, which should not significantly offset the demand impact[14] - The Chancellor has limited fiscal headroom of £9.9 billion against the deficit rule, restricting the ability to increase day-to-day spending without offsetting measures[28] - The government may need to consider tax increases or spending cuts in other areas to fund further increases in defence spending[33]

These days, waiting for the Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark interest rate is a bit like waiting for Godot: the arrival date for the long-anticipated monetary policy move keeps getting pushed into the future. https://t.co/X4M4yzK9FN ...

[Music] Greetings everyone. It is uh in the know day as well employment Friday uh and uh we have a lot to discuss as usual we'll we'll go through fiscal policy monetary policy economic indicators market indicators and uh we'll talk a little bit about uh some real breakthroughs in terms of uh the market recognizing how much innovation is taking place. Um so uh starting w with fiscal policy and I'll I'll go through and and just uh make a few observations before we flip to charts.So um on fiscal policy, well t ...

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回溯历史数据，不难发现，6月利率走势多以下行为主。从2016年至今的9年时间中，有6年的利率明显 下行。 "就今年而言，资金面是'债牛'行情得以延续的首要支撑。"一位机构交易员乐观表示，"毕竟，相较于今 年第一季度，眼下外部环境变化带来的不确定性正明显加大，此时货币当局对于资金面也必将更为'呵 护'。可以看到，一季度DR007的均值和波动率分别为2.11%和0.44%，二季度以来（截至5月末）上述数 值已分别降至1.71%和0.10%，管理层的态度由此可窥一斑。" 新华财经上海6月4日电（记者杨溢仁）5月以来，受多空消息交织博弈的影响，债市利率呈现出低位震 荡走势。展望6月，收益率能否再下一城？ 分析人士认为，在关税博弈不确定性依旧较高、管理层对于资金面大概率保持"呵护"态度的大背景下， 债市仍可布局。 资金面宽松料延续 不可否认，现阶段债券收益率曲线长端的上行在很大程度上是受到了投资者对资金面的担忧影响。部分 机构担心，央行会再次主动收紧资金面；还有一些投资者担心，6月份较大规模的CD（大额存单）到期 量会影响银行体系流动性的充裕程度；也有部分投资者担心存款降息将导致银行负债流失。 除了来自资金面的支撑外， ...