Core Viewpoint - Carnival Corporation & plc has demonstrated strong financial performance in Q4 2025, exceeding earnings expectations and showing significant growth, which has positively influenced investor confidence and stock performance [2][3][6] Financial Performance - Carnival reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.34 for Q4 2025, surpassing the expected EPS of $0.25 [3][6] - The company achieved record revenue of $6.33 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.6% [3][6] - Adjusted net income grew by over 60%, driven by strong net yields and increased onboard spending [3] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of its quarterly results, Carnival's stock surged over 8%, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's performance and future prospects [2][6] - The current stock price is $31.12, with a market capitalization of approximately $40.70 billion and a trading volume of 84.23 million shares [5] Future Outlook - Carnival has a positive outlook for fiscal 2026, expecting double-digit earnings growth supported by strong forward bookings and effective pricing strategies [4][6] - The reinstatement of a quarterly dividend reflects the company's improving profitability and stable cash flow [4]

Core Insights - Carnival's shares increased following the announcement of record earnings and a positive outlook for the upcoming year [1] Financial Performance - Carnival's fourth-quarter revenue increased by 7% year over year, reaching $6.3 billion [3] - The company's net yields improved by 5.4% on a constant currency basis, amounting to $200.84 per available passenger cruise day [3] - Adjusted net income surged by 140% to $454 million, or $0.34 per share, exceeding Wall Street's expectations of $0.25 per share [4] - For the full year, adjusted net income rose over 60% to $3.1 billion [4] Future Outlook - The CEO indicated that momentum is expected to continue into 2026, with projections of double-digit earnings growth and return on invested capital exceeding 13.5% [5] Capital Management - Carnival has reduced over $10 billion of debt in less than three years, leading to lower leverage ratios and a stronger balance sheet [6] - The board approved the reinstatement of a quarterly cash dividend at an initial rate of $0.15 per share, payable on February 27 [6][7] Industry Context - The cruise industry is showing signs of recovery after years of challenges, with management expressing optimism about future performance [9]

Carnival Cruise - Carnival Cruise reported a mixed quarter with adjusted EPS of 34 cents, exceeding expectations of 25 cents per share [1][2] - Revenue for the quarter was $6.33 billion, slightly below the expected $6.36 billion, but annual revenue reached an all-time high of over $26.5 billion, marking the best year in the company's history [2] - Demand remains strong as consumers are willing to pay higher prices for cruises, with 2026 bookings already matching 2025's record levels [3][4] - The company is improving profitability per passenger while keeping expenses in check, with enhanced fuel efficiency contributing to lower costs [5] - Carnival's balance sheet has improved, with reduced debt leading to a stronger financial position and lower borrowing costs, now considered investment grade by credit rating agencies [6][7] KB Home - KB Home faced challenges in the housing sector, with shares down 6% despite beating expectations with adjusted EPS of $1.92 against a forecast of $1.79 [9] - Revenue was reported at $1.7 billion, exceeding the expected $1.66 billion, but profits and volumes are significantly lower than the previous year due to higher mortgage rates and affordability pressures [10] - The company anticipates 2026 housing revenue to be between $5.6 billion and $6.1 billion, aligning with Wall Street estimates, but acknowledges ongoing challenges in consumer confidence and market conditions [11][12] Lamb Weston - Lamb Weston reported adjusted EPS of 69 cents, better than expected, but revenue of $1.62 billion showed only a 1% year-over-year increase [14] - The company is experiencing margin pressure and pricing challenges, with lower prices offsetting volume gains and rising input costs squeezing profitability [15] - Management is attempting to cut prices to maintain market share in North America, but this strategy is impacting near-term profitability [15][16]

Tech is back in the leadership position today. Big tech, but small caps lately have been the ones putting up some big gains. The Russell 2000 outperforming the Mag 7 over the past month, and my next next guest thinks that'll continue.Says the trade has legs next year, but expects the leadership to change. Julie Beal is chief market strategist at Kane Anderson RDN. Julie, welcome.And what do you think is about to take place. Well, I think that what's going to really start to happen is people are going to rec ...

Market Overview - The recent CPI data came in well below expectations, particularly the core CPI reading, which is significant as two-thirds of the basket consists of core services [1][2] - Historical data indicates a 73% chance of a Santa Claus rally occurring in the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the following year [2] Economic Outlook - The market has been moving sideways, but there is potential for a year-end push, with confidence in economic and earnings growth heading into 2026 [3] - Earnings growth is expected to be in double digits for the upcoming year, driven by earnings growth and valuation expansion [3] Sector Analysis - There is limited scope for valuation expansion in the tech and growth sectors, but opportunities exist in other market segments outside the major tech companies [4] - Preferred sectors for investment include healthcare, industrials, and consumer discretionary, with a positive outlook for these areas heading into 2026 [4] Consumer Behavior - The current environment of lowering interest rates by the Fed is favorable for consumers, particularly impacting mortgage rates and benefiting high middle and high-income consumers [6] - The high middle and high-income consumer segment is crucial for driving overall economic activity [6]

Let's talk a bit more about the data this morning in the market with Mona Mahajin. Edward Jones, head of investment strategy, joins us here at Post9. Always good to see you.Welcome. Happy holidays. Um, you think there's time for a rally to show up before you're in.>> You know, look, um, Santa Claus came a little bit to town this morning. We enjoyed seeing that CPI print come in well below expectations. What particularly caught our eye was the core CPI reading.Nice to see 2.6%. You know, keep in mind twothir ...

Core Viewpoint - Truist Securities has raised its price target on Dollar Tree to $149 from $136, maintaining a Buy rating, indicating confidence in the retailer's long-term earnings potential despite current controversies surrounding the stock [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Traffic Trends - Dollar Tree is described as a highly debated stock, but Truist remains optimistic heading into 2026 [2] - Concerns from bearish investors regarding a third-quarter traffic slowdown are attributed to temporary factors and in-store disruptions, with expectations for traffic recovery as store standards and inventory improve [2] Group 2: Earnings Growth Potential - Dollar Tree is expected to have significant earnings growth potential over the next several years, supported by operational initiatives such as improved space allocation, enhanced store standards, and accelerated share repurchases [3] - Management has targeted earnings per share (EPS) growth of 12% to 15% annually from 2026 through 2028, while Truist's model predicts EPS growth of 17% in 2026 and 11% in 2027 [3] Group 3: Valuation Outlook - If earnings growth meets targeted levels, the stock's valuation multiple could increase from its current level of approximately 17 times forward earnings [4]

Core Insights - America's largest banks are projected to end 2025 with historic stock prices, strong balance sheets, and regulatory freedom, attracting attention from investors in banking ETFs [1] Group 1: Bank Performance - JPMorgan Chase stock is showing an upward trend, with bank stocks outperforming other market stocks [2] - The KBW Bank Index (BKX) has increased by 30% year-to-date, surpassing the S&P 500 Index, with JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo reaching record levels, while Citigroup exceeded its book value for the first time in seven years [3] - Analysts expect large banks to continue outperforming in the coming year, with more upside than previously anticipated [4] Group 2: ETF Performance - Bank ETFs, such as the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF, Invesco KBW Bank ETF, and State Street SPDR S&P Bank ETF, have rallied between 14% and 30% this year due to strong performance from large lenders [5] Group 3: Earnings and Capital Markets - Performance is increasingly driven by earnings growth and deal-making momentum rather than interest-rate bets [6] - Global investment banking volumes are expected to increase by 10% year-over-year, the highest since 2021 [7] - Despite earlier fluctuations and IPO postponements, trading revenues for major banks are forecasted to reach record levels in 2025, with net income also expected to hit a record high [8] Group 4: Deregulation and Capital Deployment - Deregulation is changing the investment landscape for bank ETFs, with American banks projected to deploy $180 billion to $200 billion in excess capital by year-end due to policies from the Trump administration [10] - This capital is expected to be allocated towards stock repurchases, technology investments, and mergers, benefiting bank-focused ETF portfolios [10] Group 5: Profitability Targets - Major banks are setting ambitious profitability targets, with Bank of America aiming for a return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) of 16% to 18%, and Wells Fargo targeting 17% to 18% [11] - JPMorgan plans to invest an additional $10 billion in 2026 to enhance credit cards, branches, employee compensation, and AI initiatives [12] Group 6: Implications for ETF Investors - Bank ETFs are evolving from being interest-rate-sensitive investments to being linked to capital markets, mergers, acquisitions, and business growth [13] - Analysts suggest that with deregulation and expansion plans, financial ETFs may be entering a new cycle focused on capital allocation rather than mere survival [13]

LIKE RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN THE GREEN. DOW FUTURES UP BY ABOUT 20 POINTS. DOW THE DOW FUTURES UP BY 71 POINTS. THE NASDAQ INDICATED UP BY CLOSE TO 100.AND JOINING US RIGHT NOW IN THE MARKETS IS LORI CALVASINA. SHE IS RBC CAPITAL MARKETS HEAD OF U.S. EQUITY STRATEGY RESEARCH. WE'RE ALREADY LOOKING AT 2026.THINGS HAVE BEEN PRETTY GREAT THIS YEAR FOR THE MARKETS. EVEN THOUGH IT WAS KIND OF A SCARY RIDE UP. YOU HAD THE APRIL SITUATION WITH THE TARIFFS THAT SPOOKED EVERYBODY.AND, YOU KNOW, IT'S BEEN KIND OF A FORTT ...

when we kind of looking ahead to the next year, I mean we kind of think about the drivers that provided us with a very strong support for stocks this year and it was okay corporate profits that was a good uh good support and normalization of monetary policy and particularly in US and I think we're still in in that world where corporate earnings are being strong we see positive earnings revisions overall and policy is normalizing so I think that at least like in foreseeable future before events start hitting ...