Economic Growth & Political Risks - Thailand's political uncertainty poses risks to economic growth [1] - Major political parties are competing to form a new government [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Rising odds of steeper interest rate cuts are anticipated [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a rotation from technology stocks to defensive sectors, and there is potential for a shift from debt securities to precious metals, particularly gold, due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3]. Market Reactions - Following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech, the S&P 500 rose by 1.52%, nearing its all-time high, while gold prices are expected to rise as investors move away from fixed income assets [2][3]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold has been trading between $3,500 and $3,180 since reaching a record high in April, with expectations of a bullish trend as the Federal Reserve revises its monetary policy [4][5]. - The U.S. dollar has weakened by 10.69% from its year-to-date high of $109.98 to $98.22, which historically correlates with rising gold prices [5][6]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including stalled peace talks between the U.S. and Russia regarding Ukraine and military actions in Gaza, are expected to increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6]. Price Forecasts - UBS Group has raised its gold price target to $3,600, citing macroeconomic risks and strong investment demand for gold ETFs and central banks [7]. Gold-Backed ETFs Overview - **SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)**: The largest gold ETF with $102.72 billion in assets under management (AUM), has gained nearly 597% since inception [9][10]. - **iShares Gold Trust (IAU)**: Smaller than GLD with $48.41 billion in AUM, has outperformed GLD with a gain of over 648% since inception [13][14]. - **SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM)**: Newer ETF with $16.3 billion in AUM, has gained nearly 168% since launch, offering the lowest expense ratio at 0.01% [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an equal-weight rating on equities, overweight in core fixed income, and underweight in other fixed income [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut the funds rate by 25 basis points in September, with further quarterly cuts anticipated, leading to a terminal rate of 2.75-3.0% by the end of 2026 [1][18]. - The report indicates a step down in global growth due to tariff impacts, with the US experiencing additional drag from immigration restrictions [7][8]. - US markets are viewed as unmatched in size and liquidity, but rising policy uncertainty may pressure the dollar as foreign investors increase FX-hedging ratios [3][12]. Economic Forecasts - Global GDP growth is projected at 2.6% for 2025 and 3.0% for 2026, with inflation expected to remain at 2.0% for both years [8]. - The US GDP growth is forecasted at 1.0% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, with inflation rates of 2.9% and 2.5% respectively [8]. - The Euro area is expected to have GDP growth of 1.0% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, with inflation rates of 2.1% and 1.8% [8]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, a preference for quality cyclicals, large caps, and stocks with high operational efficiency is emphasized, while in Japan, focus is on domestic reflation and corporate reform beneficiaries [5][6]. - Key sectors in Europe recommended for overweight positions include defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials [5]. - Emerging markets are favored towards financials and profitability leaders, with a preference for domestic-focused businesses over exporters [5]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that risk assets are benefiting from "less bad" news, particularly for stocks previously priced for worst-case scenarios, while Treasuries are rallying on anticipated Fed cuts [2][3]. - The oil market is expected to return to a sizeable surplus, likely driving Brent prices down but not below $60 per barrel [14]. - European gas and global LNG prices are currently range-bound, with potential supply risks in September that could tighten balances [15].

Core Viewpoint - Opendoor Technologies experienced a significant stock decline of 11.2% this week, despite a late recovery, primarily due to profit-taking by investors after a substantial rally earlier in the year [1][2][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Opendoor's stock fell 11.2% from the previous week's market close, marking a notable valuation slide [1]. - The company’s share price is still up 178% in 2025, indicating strong overall performance despite recent losses [2]. - The stock initially surged due to speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which prompted investors to lock in profits [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors began cashing in on gains following a significant rally, which was influenced by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments on interest rates [4]. - The stock saw a rebound later in the week after being highlighted on CNBC's Mad Money, along with news of interim CEO Shrisha Radhakrishna purchasing 30,000 shares [5]. - Eric Jackson, founder and CEO of EMJ Capital, has been a vocal supporter of Opendoor, contributing to its stock gains this year [5][7]. Group 3: Leadership and Future Outlook - Opendoor is currently searching for a new CEO after the departure of former CEO Carrie Wheeler, influenced by retail investor pressure [6]. - The selection of the next CEO is expected to align with the priorities of retail investors, which may impact the company's future direction [7].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street analysts identify potential buying opportunities in discounted growth stocks, particularly in the consumer goods sector, despite recent declines in stock prices for companies like Lululemon Athletica and Cava Group [1][2]. Group 1: Lululemon Athletica - Lululemon has faced challenges with slowing sales growth and increased costs due to tariffs, trading significantly below its 52-week high of $423 [4][6]. - The company reported a year-over-year sales growth of only 7% in the most recent quarter, a decline from previous double-digit growth rates, influenced by broader consumer spending pullbacks [5][6]. - Analysts project an average price target of $273 for Lululemon shares, indicating a potential upside of 33%, with the stock currently trading at 14 times forward earnings, the lowest valuation in years [7][8]. Group 2: Cava Group - Cava's stock has dropped from a high of $172 to $68, attributed to high initial valuations and weak consumer spending trends [10]. - Despite the decline, Cava reported a 20% year-over-year revenue increase, although same-restaurant sales growth slowed to 2.1% [11][12]. - Analysts have set an average price target of $92 for Cava, suggesting a 36% upside, with expectations for earnings to nearly triple over the next four years as the company expands its restaurant locations [14][15].

_Before trading options, please read the Options Disclosure Document: https://www.theocc.com/Company-Information/Documents-and-Archives/Options-Disclosure-Document._ Tony discusses tech valuation concerns and potential interest rate cuts. He then shares a trade idea for a biopharmaceutical company and looks back to a recent trade for an American multinational search company. Questions? Drop them below 👇 and we’ll reply right in the comments. - For more about In the Money: https://www.fidelity.com/learning-c ...

US Treasuries maintained their weekly gains fueled by anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts after the central bank’s preferred gauge of inflation matched economist estimates https://t.co/bSXqkovMJV ...

Thailand’s bond rally may run out of steam as prospects for further interest rate cuts are all but priced in, according to fund managers https://t.co/F9wrLTxC3p ...

Core Insights - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) and Newmont Corporation (NEM) are leading companies in the gold mining sector, with diversified operations and portfolios, making them relevant for investors amid firm gold prices driven by global economic uncertainties and trade tensions [1][2]. Gold Market Overview - Gold prices have increased approximately 29% this year, reaching a record high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, before settling around $3,400 per ounce [2]. - Central banks globally are accumulating gold reserves, influenced by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts, which are expected to support gold prices [2]. Agnico Eagle's Position - Agnico Eagle is focused on growth projects, including the Odyssey project and others, which are expected to enhance production and cash flows [4]. - The Hope Bay Project has proven and probable mineral reserves of 3.4 million ounces, contributing significantly to future cash flow [5]. - The merger with Kirkland Lake Gold has positioned Agnico Eagle as a high-quality senior gold producer with a strong pipeline of development projects [6]. - AEM reported operating cash flow of $1,845 million in Q2, a 92% increase from $961 million year-over-year, and free cash flow of $1,305 million, more than double the previous year's figure [7][8]. - The company reduced long-term debt by $550 million to $595 million and ended the quarter with a net cash position of $963 million [9]. - AEM offers a dividend yield of 1.2% with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 6.9% and a payout ratio of 27%, indicating a sustainable dividend [10]. Newmont's Position - Newmont has strengthened its portfolio through the acquisition of Newcrest Mining and a $3 billion divestiture program, enhancing liquidity and operational efficiency [12][14]. - The company is pursuing growth projects like the Tanami Expansion 2 and Ahafo North expansion, which are expected to drive revenue and profit growth [13]. - Newmont's liquidity at the end of Q2 was $10.2 billion, with free cash flow reaching $1.7 billion, a significant increase year-over-year [17]. - The company returned approximately $2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and reduced debt by $1.4 billion [18]. - Newmont's long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio is around 18.8%, and it offers a dividend yield of 1.4% with a payout ratio of 20% [18]. Financial Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, AEM stock has increased by 78.4%, while NEM stock has risen by 94.5%, compared to the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 82.3% [21]. - AEM is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 20.01, representing a 41.5% premium over the industry average, while NEM is at 13.74, below its five-year median [23][24]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEM's 2025 sales and EPS indicates growth of 30.6% and 64.1%, respectively, while NEM's estimates imply growth of 10.7% and 52.3% [26][27]. Investment Considerations - Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from strong gold prices, but AEM's higher earnings growth projections and healthier dividend growth rate suggest it may offer better investment prospects [28][29]. - AEM's lower leverage indicates lesser financial risks, making it a more favorable option for investors seeking exposure to the gold sector [29].

Economic Outlook - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a tepid possibility of interest rate cuts in 2025 during his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium [1] - The CME FedWatch shows a 75% probability of a 25 basis-point cut in September and a 71% chance of two cuts this year, with the current Fed Fund rate at 4.25-4.5% [2] Market Reaction - Following Powell's speech, major stock indexes rallied: Dow increased by 1.9%, S&P 500 by 1.5%, and Nasdaq Composite by 1.9%, with the Russell 2000 jumping 3.9% [3] - The Dow closed at a record high of 45,631.74, reaching an intraday high of 45,757.84 [3] Investment Recommendations - Investment in blue-chip stocks with favorable Zacks Rank is advised, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), The Walt Disney Co. (DIS), and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) [4] Sector Trends - Anticipation of a Fed rate cut and high valuations in the technology sector have led to a shift towards rate-sensitive cyclical sectors such as utilities, industrials, financials, energy, materials, and health care [5] Dow Performance Analysis - The Dow is currently above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a potential long-term uptrend [6][7] Company Insights: JPMorgan Chase & Co. - JPMorgan Chase is expected to see net interest income (NII) growth with a projected CAGR of 2.9% by 2027, driven by business expansion and loan demand [10] - The company has a technology budget of $18 billion for the year, emphasizing AI to boost efficiency [11] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are -0.2% and -1.3%, respectively, with a 0.9% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [12] Company Insights: The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. - Goldman Sachs is benefiting from growth in its Global Banking & Markets division and has maintained a leading position in M&A activity [13][14] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 6.3% and earnings growth rate of 12.6% for the current year, with a 3.3% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [16] Company Insights: Johnson & Johnson - Johnson & Johnson's MedTech division is focused on AI technologies for surgical robotics and has developed an AI-enabled ecosystem called Ottava [17][18] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 5.2% and 8.8%, respectively, with a 0.1% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [19] Company Insights: The Walt Disney Co. - Disney is experiencing growth in Domestic Parks & Experiences revenues, with a slight decline in international locations [20] - As of June 28, 2025, Disney+ had 127.8 million paid subscribers, with a projected increase of over 10 million subscriptions by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 [21][23] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 3.9% and 17.7%, respectively, with a 0.1% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [25] Company Insights: Microsoft Corp. - Microsoft is capitalizing on AI momentum and strong demand for its cloud services, with Azure holding approximately 20-24% of the global cloud market share [26][27] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 13.9% and earnings growth rate of 12.5% for the current year, with a 0.1% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [30]