Macroeconomic & Trade Dynamics - China's Jan-June trade surplus reached CNY 4210 billion [1] - China's trade resisted pressure in the first half of the year [1] - Discussions are ongoing regarding trade tensions with the EU [1] - Potential meeting between Xi Jinping and Trump is anticipated [1] - Price wars in China are considered more dangerous than tariffs [1] Geopolitical Relations - Australia is pursuing 'practical cooperation' with China [1] - The relationship with China is considered 'very important' [1] - Focus on China-Australia ties [1] Economic Outlook - Examination of the global economic outlook [1] - Monitoring of US CPI data [1] Social Trends - 'Anti-Involution' is identified as a new buzzword in China [1]

泰国财政部表示，考虑对更多美国进口产品实行零关税。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):泰国财政部长向彭博表示，泰国已向美国提出最新贸易提案，承诺在未来5年内对美贸易顺差削减70%，并力争在7-8年内实现贸易平衡，旨在美国施加的36%关税。 https://t.co/lElZmJf9kC ...

Indonesia is set to appoint a US-educated technocrat as its ambassador to Washington as the Southeast Asian nation recalibrates trade and business ties with the world’s largest economy https://t.co/s8AlrzdoDn ...

Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan could lead to Armenia being integrated into the region’s “middle corridor” for trade and energy that links China and Central Asia to Europe, bypassing Russia.The effects of this would be felt widely https://t.co/mdyy9wSBU9 ...

Is the market starting to wake up to what could be coming when it comes to trade. Good morning. Uh good morning, Nathan.Well, I I would say uh here we go again. Uh you know, like we we kind of know the pattern now. I mean, this is President Trump's style.He'll he goes hard and then he you know, he doesn't uh back off completely, but it's a it's a back and forth. And that's his negotiating style. You know, it's the old BATNA where you put your stake in the ground and aggressively and then you try to negotiat ...

President Trump announcing tariffs on imports from Canada of 35%. Uh something must have made him mad. I don't know what the latest is.Maybe Megan knows that they start on August 1st. Megan Cassella joins us uh now from Washington. Any particular thing or just the you know slow walking the whole process.What's he what what did anything in particular spur this latest uh threat. Not that we know of yet, Joe. We might learn today, but we don't know exactly what what sparked this latest Canada threat.But I'll s ...

President Trump’s threat for a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports expanded his use of punitive duties over matters that have nothing to do with trade, breaking with more than a half-century of global economic precedent https://t.co/z0ZrVwSFit ...

Tariffs Impact on Trade - A 35% tariff on Canada may not be as impactful as it seems due to USMCA exemptions for goods traded through the U S trade deal, including machinery, auto, and auto parts [1] - The 35% tariff is not significantly higher than the existing 25% level [2] - Tariff announcements have been moved back before, especially for Canada, as negotiations with the U S and Mexico regarding USMCA updates are ongoing, raising questions about whether the tariff will be implemented or used as a negotiating tactic [3] US Tariff Strategy - President Trump is questioning the assumption of a 10% baseline tariff [4] - Tariff letters sent to various economies indicate double-digit increases, aligning with previous observations [5] - Japan and South Korea are actively trying to lower tariff levels to avoid implementation before August 1st [6] - A 20% tariff level would effectively double the economic damage expected by markets and economists from President Trump [6] - President Trump monitors the markets and may adjust tariff levels based on market reactions [6][7] Economic Data and Future Outlook - Increased talks and negotiations are expected as the new deadline of August 1st approaches [8] - Economic data from Japan and China will highlight the risks to economies, including unemployment rate, inflation, labor market dynamics, and GDP [9] - Data is expected to show weak exports due to tariffs and uncertainty, potentially weakening investment in industrial production [10] - Companies across Asia are already experiencing price pressures due to tariff negotiations with the U S [11]

Trade and Tariffs - The Trump administration is issuing tariff demand letters, totaling 22 letters so far, to ignite negotiations with some nations and political standoffs with others [1] - Brazil was hit with a 50% tariff, leading to political tensions as the Brazilian president views it as a political message [1][15] - The market is uncertain about tariffs, with only a handful of deals signed and details obscured; many countries are under pressure to deliver concessions to the U S by August 1 to avoid higher tariffs [1] - The U S has already collected billions of dollars in tariffs, estimated to reach around $300 billion by the end of the year, which is a little over 1% of the U S economy [41] - The market does not fully believe President Trump's statements about tariffs, and uncertainty around trade policy remains high [11][12] - The negative effects of tariffs may not be as bad as initially priced into the market, but the top-line benefits promised may not materialize [5][13] - The most important trade deal for the White House to present is with Europe, given its status as the largest investor in the U S and the complexity of needing approval from 20 different countries [21][22] Market and Economic Impact - Tech stocks, industrial stocks, and NASDAQ are at record highs, with NVIDIA up 40% since Trump tariffs [2] - The S&P 500 closed at a record high, while industrial stocks were less than 1% from achieving a record high [4] - Market gains are primarily driven by big tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and NVIDIA [6][7] - Smaller companies in the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 mid-caps are struggling and not near record highs, indicating a lack of broadening in the rally [8] - Imports to the U S represent roughly 13%-14% of GDP, with only a small portion covered by tariffs so far, making the impact visible but not necessarily prominent [15] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is making the Federal Reserve wary of cutting rates too quickly [17] Geopolitics and Policy - Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with his Russian counterpart to express disappointment with Vladimir Putin over attacks on Ukraine [1][23] - American-made weapons have resumed shipments to Ukraine, including artillery shells and mobile rocket artillery missiles [29] - The U S has not given Ukraine any U S F-16s but has okayed allies to do so [34] - The Justice Department has opened criminal investigations into former FBI Director James Comey and former CIA Director John Brennan [23] - A federal judge in New Hampshire blocked President Trump's effort to limit automatic birthright citizenship, reinstating protections that were paused last month [71] Agriculture - For American farmers, President Trump's tariff policy is a mixed bag [50] - Corn prices are under $4, and soybean prices are under $10, reflecting a market with a surplus and a lack of demand [51] - China did not meet the goals and requirements of the Phase One agreement during the first Trump administration [51] - The U S agriculture relies on several hundred thousand farmworkers, primarily in specialty crop and dairy areas [54] - Changes to the SNAP program could reduce farm income, as $020 of every food dollar spent at a grocery store ultimately ends up with a farmer [63]

President Donald Trump’s unexpected move to threaten a 50% tariff on Brazil risks roiling global commodity markets, disrupting trade on everything from beef to coffee https://t.co/XDCMVgsOKt ...