So we have a Fed meeting and then we have a jobs report. Let's start with the Fed meeting. The decision itself, not expecting too many fireworks there.But as always, there's a lot to talk about in that press conference, Julia. Absolutely. There's a lot going on.Of course, Chair Powell will put on his best poker face and reassuring voice and tone, which he's very, very good at, and say that, look, that things are there's a lot of disruption going on so far. You know, you've got a little bit of creeping highe ...

Federal Reserve officials are determined to hold interest rates steady a little while longer, though an increasingly contentious debate at this week’s policy meeting may bolster expectations for rate cuts in the fall https://t.co/1hih9aIncY ...

There’s another reason for Powell to ignore Trump and stay cautious on rate cuts, @jonathanjlevin says. It's the bizarre behavior of the dollar (via @opinion) https://t.co/OtAa7D2U1z ...

We're getting some news out of that AI event down in Washington. Aean Jabres joins us once again with that. Aean, Scott, that's right.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant just wrapped up his remarks here with the All-In uh podcast. Folks, a couple of points here that I want to bring to you and apologies from for reading from my notes here, but because I want to get this right. He was talking about US treasuries and he said that the expectation is that the Chinese government will slowly divest over time but he s ...

Market Performance & Trends - The S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and NASDAQ 100 reached fresh records, while the Dow barely closed in the red and small caps fell by approximately 025% [2][3] - The 10-year Treasury note yield decreased by 6 basis points to 437%, and the 30-year yield also decreased by 6 basis points, remaining below 5% [4] - The US dollar index decreased by approximately 067%, a significant amount for a major currency [4] - Communication services showed the strongest performance, increasing by 137%, while energy declined by more than 1% [4] - Investors are becoming more comfortable with the resilience of the US economy, supported by strong retail sales and low jobless claims [7][8] - The market reaction to tariff headlines has diminished, with the S&P 500 and tariff-related stocks showing minimal movement in response to recent tariff news [32] Company Specific News - Trump Media Technology Group revealed approximately $2 billion in Bitcoin holdings, representing about two-thirds of their balance sheet [12][13] - Taiwan Semiconductor's largest client is Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor lifted their full-year guidance by 30% [20][21] - NATO countries have committed to spend up to 5% of their GDP on defense spending over the next decade, and the European Union plans to spend $840 billion over the next four years on defense [22] - Nisource, a multi-utility company and one of the largest distributors of natural gas, has a dividend yield of nearly 3% and is considered a backdoor play into the AI revolution [26][27] - Coca-Cola is expected to report less growth in Q2 due to a slowdown in price increases, and General Motors is expected to report earnings in line with analyst estimates [63][64] Economic Outlook & Federal Reserve - The US economy is showing signs of regaining its strength, with consumer confidence and spending rebounding, and major financial institutions no longer anticipating a recession [43] - The Federal Reserve's summary of economic projections in June indicated a potential slowdown to 14% by the end of the year, with unemployment rising to 45% and core PCE inflation rising to 31% [47] - The market is currently pricing in approximately two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for the remainder of the year, potentially in September and October [60]

Meanwhile, our next guest thinks tensions between President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell could reach a boiling point by the next interest rate decision scheduled for later this month. Ben Emmens is founder and chief investment officers at Fed Watch Adviserss. Ben, thank you for being with us.I mean, my goodness. Uh, I can't even remember what day it was this week, but it was a long day and a short day allin-one. We had we thought we knew one thing and then an hour and a half later we knew something dif ...

Monetary Policy & Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence is crucial for achieving stable economic outcomes, especially low and stable inflation [3][4] - Markets would be concerned if central bank independence were threatened [4] - The Fed leadership likely believes tariff effects won't cause prolonged high inflation, especially given the less tight labor market compared to 2022 [8] - The FOMC holds a range of views regarding the appropriateness of lowering interest rates while tariff effects are present [11] Economic Outlook & Data Analysis - Recent data suggests the labor market doesn't require significant rate cuts, and underlying inflation trends are moving towards 2% [5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates three rate cuts later this year, potentially starting in September, due to a relaxed view on inflation [5][6] - Consumer spending appears somewhat softer when adjusted for tariff-driven price increases [14] - Tariffs are expected to slow the pace of economic growth due to their function as taxes and the uncertainty they create [14] - While tariffs may lead to slower consumption and final demand growth, other factors like bank earnings, M&A, and IPO activity suggest increased business and consumer confidence [15] - The economy is not expected to enter recessionary territory [15] - Growth for the year is expected to be in the low 1% range, below the trend pace of around 2% [19]

JEROME POWELL CONSIDERING RESIGNING!?He resignsTrump puts someone who is on his side with cutsWe get the bajillion rate cutsThe dollar goes to 0The economy is not much better, if at allAnd our digital assets go to a trillion per coin? https://t.co/o4RePzvSSQ ...

Market Outlook - S&P 500 could reach 6,500, influenced by potential tariff impacts on GDP and earnings [2][4] - Tariff impacts could lead to a 1% GDP hit resulting in approximately a 4% earnings reduction [2] - Market's positive reaction to Delta's improved forecast indicates continued economic growth and consumer spending [5][6] Earnings Season Expectations - Earnings season is pivotal for assessing consumer and business spending, providing real-time data [8] - Financial sector and banking sector are expected to benefit, despite challenging year-over-year comparisons [10] - Regional banks are favored over larger banks due to price-to-book ratios and potential deregulation benefits [10] Investment Strategy - Robin Hood strategies have shifted towards GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), including tech, aerospace and defense, and midcaps [13] - Midcaps are considered undervalued, with long-term average price-to-earnings ratios at 19 times, currently at 16 times [13] - Potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could drive the S&P 500 to 6,500, but concerns remain regarding the labor market [11][15]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve (Fed) to potentially cut rates, influenced by factors such as President Trump's urging and internal committee discussions [1][2] - The Fed committee holds diverse views, with some members favoring no rate cuts this year, while others, including the chair, foresee potential cuts [2] - Some Fed governors suggest current short-term rates are "pretty restrictive," implying room for rate reduction [3] - The Fed is in "wait and see mode" to assess the impact of tariffs on the economy before making a decision on rate cuts [2][4] - A 25 basis points rate cut in July is considered by some as a minor adjustment that could appease those advocating for lower rates [5] Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates the initial rate cut may occur in the fall, potentially starting in September [7] - The committee's "dots" indicate that 12 members believe two rate cuts would be appropriate [7] - Standard monetary policy rules suggest that current policy is restrictive [3][8] Fed Communication - Providing useful information on its intentions is valuable for any central bank [9] - The usefulness of the "dots" projections is debated, with some questioning their value [8][9]