This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: Consumer confidence slumped in November to the lowest level since the imposition of sweeping U.S. tariffs in April as inflation persisted well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and reports of a pullback in hiring added to signs of a cooling labor market. The Consumer Confidence Index fell by 6.8 points this month to 88.7, with gauges of the labor market, b ...

Core Viewpoint - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has narrowed down candidates to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with a decision expected by Christmas, although Powell is likely to complete his term ending May 15, 2026 [1][2]. Candidate Summaries - **Michelle Bowman**: Federal Reserve Governor and vice chair for supervision, she was one of the first dissenters favoring rate cuts during the July meeting when rates were left unchanged [6]. - **Kevin Hassett**: Director of the National Economic Council, previously served as a senior advisor and chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers. He noted a less-than-expected 3% annual increase in consumer inflation, suggesting costs are falling [9][10]. - **Rick Rieder**: Chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, overseeing $3.2 trillion in customer assets. He expressed that being considered for the Fed chair would be a significant honor and emphasized the importance of monetary policy [10][11]. - **Christopher Waller**: Another dissenting Federal Reserve member who plans to advocate for a rate cut in December, expressing concerns about the weak labor market despite inflation not being a major issue [14][15]. - **Kevin Warsh**: Former Federal Reserve governor and critic of the central bank's forecasting abilities, particularly regarding inflation and economic growth [16][17].

Market Overview - The US stock market showed mixed signals on November 25, with the Dow Jones up 0.6%, the S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq down 0.3%, indicating ongoing concerns about high valuations in AI and tech stocks [1] - Despite a tech rally on Monday, all three indexes remain on track for monthly losses as investors weigh retail sales, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's next move [1] Technology Sector - Tech shares led market volatility, with Nvidia shares falling over 4% after reports that Meta plans to invest billions in AI chips from Google, signaling increased competition [2][7] - Other tech giants like Alphabet and Alibaba performed well, supported by strong earnings and AI-driven growth momentum, which reassured investors about their resilience amid rising competition [8] Federal Reserve and Rate Cut Expectations - The market is pricing in over an 80% chance of a Fed rate cut at the December meeting, with Fed Governor Chris Waller advocating for easing to support economic growth [3][10] - A potential rate cut is viewed as beneficial for growth stocks, particularly in technology and consumer discretionary sectors, although uncertainty remains regarding the timing and scope of such a move [12] Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - Retail sales data presents a mixed picture, with September sales rising only 0.2%, below forecasts, while October data showed a rebound with sales excluding autos and gas up 0.6% month-over-month and 5% year-over-year, driven by online and food store sales [4][14] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.3%, raising the annual rate to 2.7%, indicating moderate but persistent price pressures [15] Earnings Season - The earnings season is gaining attention, with Kohl's and Best Buy reporting this week, providing insights into consumer demand ahead of the holiday season [5][21] - Investors are closely monitoring these results to gauge spending trends and assess whether consumers are holding back [5] Energy Market - Energy markets experienced significant declines, with Brent crude falling 1.9% to below $62 per barrel and WTI dropping 2% to below $58, both down nearly 5% over the past five sessions [17][22] - Natural gas prices also fell, with futures down 5.9% to trade under $4.40 per MMBtu, influenced by peace-talk progress and strong US production [19]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy requires significant interest rate cuts to alleviate high borrowing costs and support labor market recovery [1][2][7]. Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran advocates for large interest rate cuts to achieve a neutral monetary policy quickly, arguing that current rates are restrictive and detrimental to economic growth [2][5]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is divided on the necessity of further rate cuts, with discussions ongoing about the impact of a softening labor market and persistent inflation [2][3]. Interest Rate Cuts - Miran suggests a series of 50 basis point cuts, citing recent positive job data and low inflationary risks as justification for this approach [5][6]. - The Fed has already implemented two rate cuts this year, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% [3]. Labor Market and Unemployment - The rising unemployment rate is attributed to tight monetary policy, and Miran expresses concern that failure to cut rates could hinder labor market recovery [6][7]. - Miran emphasizes the need for a forward-looking approach in policy-making to address the challenges in the labor market [7]. Housing Market - Miran highlights the importance of easing mortgage rates, noting that while financial conditions may appear loose due to the stock market, the housing market remains tight [8]. - He believes that cutting interest rates will eventually lead to improved financial conditions in the housing market [8].

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Tuesday that core wholesale prices rose less than anticipated in September, suggesting a possible moderation in pipeline inflation. This development offers some clarity as policymakers prepare to meet amid divergent views on interest rate strategy. ...

Core Insights - Consumer sentiment has significantly declined, reaching a record low of 51 in November, down from 53.6 in October, and down 29% year-over-year [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the economy's health has led investors to favor low-beta, defensive stocks, particularly in the consumer staples sector [1][2] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers reported a final reading of 51 for consumer sentiment in November, slightly up from a preliminary reading of 50.3 [4] - The decline in consumer sentiment is attributed to a slowing labor market and high inflation, which pressures consumer spending [6] - Long-term inflation expectations decreased from 3.9% in October to 3.4% in November [5] Investment Focus - In the current market environment, investors are advised to consider low-beta stocks with high dividend yields and favorable Zacks Ranks to mitigate market volatility [2][3] - Recommended stocks include: - **Entergy Corporation (ETR)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 6.9%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.63, and a dividend yield of 2.73% [9] - **CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 9.3%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.60, and a dividend yield of 2.22% [13] - **John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 18.1%, Zacks Rank 1, beta of 0.37, and a dividend yield of 1.28% [15] - **Universal Corporation (UVV)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 2.4%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.73, and a dividend yield of 6.19% [16]

Core Insights - The baseline salary for a comfortable living in 2026 is estimated to be between $80,000 and $90,000, influenced by factors such as location, family size, and lifestyle choices [3][4][5] - Inflation rates are currently affecting the cost of living, with some Americans feeling financially squeezed due to rising prices [3][4] - There is a need for strategic financial planning, including smart investing and debt management, to maintain economic stability [7][8][9] Salary and Living Standards - A minimum annual salary of $80,000 to $90,000 is necessary for an average American family to achieve a reasonable standard of living, considering an inflation rate of approximately 3% to 4% [4] - The current inflation rate is reported to be as high as 8% to 10%, impacting the purchasing power of households earning around $85,000 [5] Financial Strategies - Individuals are advised to prioritize smart investing over merely chasing higher paychecks, focusing on long-term wealth generation through real estate and diversification [7] - Maintaining assets that appreciate in value is crucial for countering inflation and generating passive income [8] Debt Management - High-interest debt is a significant concern, with clients expressing difficulty in avoiding it when only a one-month buffer of basic expenses is maintained [9]

But first, the hot topic of the hour. The Trump administration is pushing forward with President Trump's affordability agenda. But new Fox News polls show the American people are souring on the economy.76% of respondents view national economic conditions as poor, while 60% report poor personal financial situations. I spoke with White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset about it on Sunday. Watch.>> We 100% get it. And uh one of the ways you could think about it, Maria, is that because of in ...

🚨BREAKING🚨🇺🇸 US PPI CAME IN AT 2.6%EXPECTATIONS: 2.7%--PPI came in lower than expected → easing inflation pressure → stronger rate-cut expectations → a mild bullish signal for the market. ...

Core Insights - Nearly 24% of U.S. households are living paycheck to paycheck in 2025, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase from 2024, although the growth rate has slowed significantly compared to the previous year [1][3][4] Group 1: Definition and Impact - Living paycheck to paycheck is defined as households spending over 95% of their income on necessities, leaving little for savings or discretionary purchases [2] - The financial stress is primarily concentrated in lower-income households, with 29% of these households living paycheck to paycheck, up from 28.6% in 2024 and 27.1% in 2023 [4][5] Group 2: Economic Factors - Inflation has outpaced after-tax wage growth for middle- and lower-income households since January 2025, contributing to the increasing financial strain [3][5] - In October, wages increased by 1%, while the cost of living rose by 3%, highlighting the widening gap between income and expenses for lower-income families [6] Group 3: Higher-Income Households - About 19% of higher-income households are also living paycheck to paycheck, attributed to lifestyle changes leading to increased expenses [6]