Australia will report a narrower budget deficit for fiscal 2025 than the center-left government forecast about six months ago as strong employment gains helped bolster revenue https://t.co/J6BlBq8Xuu ...

KEY EVENTS NEXT WEEK: 👇- All Week: Fed officials speaking- Tuesday: JOLTs Job Openings- Wednesday: ADP Employment Report & ISM Manufacturing PMI- Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims- Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate https://t.co/a9wAaXyHaG ...

Market Outlook - Piper Sandler expects improving EPS breadth to take over after three years of PE expansion [2] - The market has priced in very little macro risk, making further multiple expansion difficult, earnings will need to drive growth [3] - Stable to slightly lower interest rates over the last two and a half years provide tailwinds to the economy [5] - Globally, there have been approximately 95 rate cuts in the last several quarters [5] - Analyst estimates are starting to broaden out, and housing data is stabilizing to slightly improve [6] - Rising small cap and midcap earnings estimates are observed for the first time in three years [7] Economic Indicators - The current backdrop is considered a Goldilocks scenario, with a soft enough labor market to allow gradual rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8] - Broadening of earnings estimates has been strong across mid, small, and large caps in the last two months [10] - Green shoots are appearing in housing data, with purchase applications and refi activity continuing to grind higher [10] - The Fed funds rate is 125 basis points lower and is expected to be another quarter point lower by year end [11]

Employment Trends in New York City - The large downward BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) employment revision contained some positive aspects for New York City [1] News Source - The information was reported by foxjust via @opinion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is rising following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's cautious remarks regarding future interest-rate cuts, indicating uncertainty in monetary policy direction [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Powell expressed concerns about the risks to both employment and inflation, refraining from providing clear signals about potential rate cuts in the upcoming October meeting [1][2]. - He warned that aggressive rate cuts could leave inflation unaddressed, potentially necessitating future rate hikes [2]. - Conversely, maintaining high rates for an extended period could lead to a softening labor market [2].

Benefits of Education and Training - Education and training benefit workers, employers, and the country [1]

Inflation & Employment Risks - Near-term inflation risks are skewed to the upside, while employment risks lean towards the downside, creating a complex situation with no risk-free solutions [1] - Overly aggressive easing could leave inflation unresolved, potentially requiring corrective measures to achieve the 2% target [2] - Maintaining a restrictive policy for too long could unnecessarily weaken the labor market [2] Monetary Policy Stance - Increased downside risks to employment have altered the balance of risks in achieving the dual mandate [3] - The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4% - 425% [3] - The current policy stance is considered modestly restrictive, allowing flexibility to respond to economic developments [3]

Inflation Risks - Near-term inflation risks are tilted to the upside, presenting a challenging economic situation [1] - Tariffs' impact on inflation has been modest, with retailers and importers absorbing costs rather than passing them to consumers [3] - The pass-through of tariff costs to consumers has been slower and less significant than expected, creating uncertainty about future inflation trends [4] Labor Market - Employment risks are tilted to the downside, indicating potential challenges in the labor market [1] - The labor market exhibits weakness with low job creation, although the unemployment rate and quits rate remain low [5] - The labor market has reached an unusual stability characterized by lower demand and supply for workers, posing a downside risk [6] Revenue Collection - The federal government is collecting substantial revenue, estimated at a pace of 300 to 400 billion USD per year [1] - The source of tariff payments is uncertain, with potential candidates including foreign exporters, domestic companies, retailers, or end consumers [2] Monetary Policy - The responsible approach involves monitoring and waiting to avoid making mistakes on inflation [5] - Inflation control is a key mandate, requiring careful observation of economic developments [4]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the challenging balancing act policymakers face regarding interest rates, highlighting the complexities posed by inflation and employment risks [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rates - Powell reiterated the difficulty in determining the appropriate path for interest rates due to the current economic conditions [1] Inflation Risks - The risks associated with inflation are significant, contributing to the challenging economic outlook [1] Employment Concerns - Employment risks also play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve's decisions, complicating the overall economic landscape [1]

Near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment are tilted to the downside. A challenging situation. Two sided risks mean that there is no risk free pass.If we ease too aggressively, we could leave the inflation job unfinished and need to reverse course later to fully restore 2% inflation. If we maintain restrictive policy too long. The labour market could soften unnecessarily when our goals or intention like this are.Framework has long called for us to balance both sides of ou ...