Senate confirms Trump's top economist Stephen Miran to serve on the Fed's Board of Governors, a day before a crucial meeting to discuss interest rateshttps://t.co/scGeQfkkdg ...

Senate confirms Trump's top economist Stephen Miran to serve on the Fed's Board of Governors, a day before a crucial meeting to discuss interest rateshttps://t.co/P5h8ZQZmvC ...

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in navigating a rapidly changing economy with limited tools, under political pressure [1] - US economy is a complex mix of adaptation and experimentation, making data interpretation difficult [4] Immigration Impact - St Louis Fed research suggests that slowing immigration may cause the US labor market data to appear weaker than it is [2] - Previously, the US needed approximately 150,000 new jobs monthly to maintain expansion, but with reduced immigration, the break-even rate might be closer to 50,000 new jobs monthly [2] Trade and Tariffs - Boston Fed indicates that peak tariff uncertainty might be behind us, which is positive for small and medium-sized businesses [3] - Easier access to credit outweighs lingering trade worries for small and medium-sized businesses [3] AI and Automation - San Francisco Fed found that companies facing more trade uncertainty are adopting new tech and automation faster [3] - Firms are automating to mitigate policy shocks [4]

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Fed faces a stagflation-type scenario with high inflation due to supply shocks (tariffs) that may weaken the economy [2] - The Fed is considering a presumptive 25 basis point rate cut amidst concerns about inflation expectations [2] - The central bank should normally look through temporary supply shocks to inflation, but the Fed is worried about inflation expectations [3][4] - If inflation expectations rise and become anchored, it could lead to incrementally higher inflation over time [6] - Compromised central bank independence could lead to expectations of easier monetary policy, causing inflation and higher interest rates [7][8] - The Fed's concern about inflation expectations may make them reluctant to ease as fast as they normally would [5][10] Central Bank Independence - Attacks on the Fed, such as the Lisa Cook situation, and potential political influence are concerning [4][9] - The appointment of someone still working in the White House to the Fed is unprecedented [4] - Examples like Turkey and Argentina show that compromised central bank independence can lead to high interest rates and distrust in statistics [9][10]

🇺🇸 FOMC: The Federal Reserve will make a decision on interest rates this Wednesday.What do you think they’ll decide? 👇 https://t.co/92pWNK9Lnh ...

Fed's going to kick off its two-day policy meeting tomorrow. Joining us now, former Federal Reserve Board nominee, Judy Shelton. She's a senior fellow at the Independent Institute and a former economic adviser to President Trump in his first term.It's good to see you, Judy. It's been a while. Uh it's I'm reading one of your opeds from right when the election happened and you said, "Now that Donald Trump is the president-elect, expect warnings about the dangers of compromising the independence of the Federal ...

Interest Rate Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis points (0.25%) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] - The debate centers on whether the Fed will signal one or two more rate cuts after September [2] - The market is pricing in rate cuts that could bring the federal funds rate down to approximately 3% by the end of next year [7] Labor Market & Economic Outlook - Softening labor market indicators, with payroll employment growth at only 30,000 per month in the last three months, are a key concern driving potential rate cuts [5] - The market generally agrees with the view that downside risks to the labor market outweigh upside risks to inflation, justifying rate cuts [11] - There's a possibility that steeper rate cuts could lead to a reacceleration of inflation and a deterioration in the dollar's value [10] Fed Policy & Internal Dynamics - Most members of the committee are expected to align with the Chairman's direction on rates, with disagreements primarily focused on timing [15][16] - The influence of a newly appointed member from the administration is expected to be limited during the upcoming meeting [19][21] - The degree of disagreement among members tends to be small, as everyone is evaluating the same economic information [22]

🇺🇸 TRUMP: "Too late" on interest rates. Must cut now and bigger than previously expected. 👀 https://t.co/1FbgCtRPrA ...

The European Central Bank should maintain its current level of interest rates, with dangers to prices tilted to the upside, according to Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel https://t.co/IiQpnpZrex ...

Federal Reserve kicking off its two-day meeting on interest rates tomorrow. Want to take a closer look at the markets right now with Ed Yardeni, Ardeni Research President. Good morning to you, sir.Thank you. >> We're all trying to figure out where this is all headed. I think we're at a quarter point, but I don't know.Some people are now suggesting maybe we we get uh you know, half a point. >> It's a stretch. It's possible, but uh I'm I'm like everybody else in the quarter point camp.I've actually been in th ...