Welcome back. The battle is heating up for which of the Kevin may become the next Fed chair. The Wall Street Journal reporting that former Fed Governor Kevin Worsh and current Trump economic adviser Kevin Hasset have been duking it out in what they say is a very apprenticeesque competition to take over for Powell next year.And while one Kevin is regarded as a serious contender, the other is facing some criticism. For more, we're joined by Brian Schwarz, White House economic policy reporter. I it pains me to ...

India’s busy local-currency rupee bond market is poised to slow after the country’s central bank hinted room for further rate cuts could be limited https://t.co/lgIpzqTyo9 ...

REMINDER:🇺🇸 FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL WILL SPEAK TODAY AT 9:30 AM ET.WILL HE HINT ABOUT ANY RATE CUTS? https://t.co/tTlaFWQLi4 ...

And Ryan, I was struck. Goldman just tweaked their forecast for uh you know, their Fed forecast for for rate cuts. Now they think we could get one in September because the inflation numbers on from tariff have been less uh dramatic than they expected.So all of a sudden, you throw in there the possibility of a near-term rate cut. I have to imagine that would contribute to a positive outlook on equities. Kelly, you're right.Thanks for having me back and happy Monday, everybody, and congrats on number six. Uh, ...

🇺🇲FED CHAIR POWELL SAYS THE UPCOMING TRADE DEALS MAY ALLOW FOR RATE CUTS.RATE CUTS ARE COMING IN JULY 🚀 https://t.co/nlqbQQbMF9 ...

Is the pain trade now to the up or to the downside. I think the tendency is definitely up that the trend is up. I mean, the you know, if the ceasefire holds, it looks good now.That's a that's a tremendous plus for the markets. I think, you know, all time highs for the S&P are virtually a foregone conclusion now and and further highs after after that. I mean, Powell was flexible.Clearly, Congress wants interest rates to go down and a number of Fed officials do. That could be a positive. I think they should g ...

Interest Rate and Bond Market - The market anticipates potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, influenced by Powell's testimony, which outlines paths to rate cuts, contingent on factors like tariffs [3] - Without tariffs, rates could potentially be 100 basis points lower, influencing bond yields [4] - The Fed might consider a smaller rate cut in September, followed by a potentially larger cut, depending on upcoming data [4] - Faster and sooner rate cuts by the Fed could lead to rising yields [5] Treasury Market and Foreign Buyers - Concerns about foreign buyers stepping away from treasuries have diminished amidst the equity rally [6] - There's still pressure on the long end of the yield curve due to the budget bill, energy shocks, and tariffs, potentially leading to higher yields [6] - The current counter-rally might be driven by domestic players and technical factors, but the underlying story of pressure on the long end hasn't fundamentally changed [6] Dollar and Currency Dynamics - The dollar is near a three-year low, potentially due to relief in markets benefiting other currencies [7] - Currencies benefiting from tariff or geopolitical relief tend to rally, while the dollar weakens [8] - If treasuries face more pressure, the dollar is likely to weaken [8]

Roger Ferguson, Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman and CNBC contributor, says Powell will highlight uncertainty. CEOs remain cautious, with many expecting mild recession; Fed remains divided on timing of rate cuts amid global risks. ...

Market Trends & Geopolitical Impact - The market initially reacted negatively to the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, with oil prices surging, but then reversed as Iran's response appeared limited, leading to a drop in oil prices and a bullish market sentiment [1][3][10][27] - Iran's potential closure of the Straits of Hormuz is unlikely due to their own reliance on it for 170万 barrels per day of exports [1][4] - US ethane exports to China are being used as a bargaining chip in the rare earth minerals debate, causing uncertainty for US energy exporters [3][4][5] Investment Opportunities & Company Performance - Darden Restaurants presents a compelling investment opportunity due to strong performance, especially at Olive Garden and Longhorn Steakhouse, a $1 billion buyback program, and a 71% dividend increase [11][12][13][14] - Darden's blended same store sales were up 46%, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of 35% [13] - Longhorn Steakhouse surpassed $3 billion in annual revenue for the first time in fiscal year 2025 [18] - Arlo Technologies' subscription business is experiencing insane growth, with subscriber count breaking through 5 million users and aiming for 10 million by 2030 [40][41] - Arlo Technologies' gross margin expanded by 600 basis points year-over-year, reaching 83% [43] Individual Stock Analysis & Recommendations - Circle Internet Group: Sell 50% of your position tomorrow morning and let the rest run [3][33] - Palantir: Jim Kramer said at 50, it's going to 100, at 100, it's going to 200 [3] - Haiko: Take some off tomorrow just because you're going to be a good soldier, but I like the stock [3] - Arlo Technologies: Put on a small position here, but you got to wait for a buyback before you buy more [52]

Monetary Policy Stance - The industry suggests the Fed might have already implemented one rate cut [1] - The industry notes the Fed's previous Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in March occurred before the April 2nd tariff announcement [1] - The industry observes the Fed's forecasts indicate a slightly more restrictive policy stance than anticipated in March [1] - The industry believes the Fed made the right decision to hold the funds rate steady, awaiting more clarity [1] Economic Outlook - The industry acknowledges the economy's resilience, citing a strong labor market and rebounding growth after a negative first quarter [1] - The industry recognizes uncertainty regarding the size and effects of tariffs, anticipating higher inflation and weaker growth [1] - The industry expects the budget bill working its way through Congress to influence the economic outlook [1] - The industry highlights the importance of minimizing both the risk and cost of policy mistakes, suggesting it's not costly to hold rates steady given the current economic environment [3] Inflation and Unemployment - The industry indicates tariffs are expected to cause higher inflation, at least temporarily, and slightly higher unemployment [1] - The industry points out that the unemployment rate is low [3] - The industry observes that growth in employment is moderating as expected [4]