Recent volatility in the Treasury market doesn't mean bonds can't offer benefits to investors. On this episode of Market Sense, a Fidelity portfolio manager who specializes in fixed income explains why the current climate of higher yields and the potential for lower interest rates could deliver attractive returns. Plus, we dig into all the latest market headlines and trade news. Topics covered: • Bond opportunities • Bond ETFs • Active and passive bond funds 01:18: Middle East Conflict 02:50: Federal Reserv ...

>> LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D. C. , THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" WITH JOE MATHIEU.JOE: WASHINGTON WAITS FOR WORD ON INTEREST RATES AND U.S. MILITARY INVOLVEMENT IN IRAN. WELCOME TO THE WEDNESDAY EDITION OF "BALANCE OF POWER." WE ARE LIVE FROM THE NATION’S CAPITAL WITH A LOT OF QUESTIONS TO ANSWER TODAY. WALL STREET IS WATCHING AS WELL.WE WILL BE JOINED BY REPUBLICAN CONGRESSMAN MIKE LAWLER OF NEW YORK, WHO IS TRYING HOLD THE LINE ON SALT IN THE PRESIDENT’S BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL. WE HAVE A LOT TO TALK ABOUT WITH AN ...

Nick Tamros of the Wall Street Journal. Uh, Cher Pal, I guess I'm wondering if you could explain a little bit more the divergence we see in the dot plot, particularly around the 2025 rate projections. I realize this is uh, you know, you have one group of officials that are putting down no cuts, another that are putting down more than one.Um, and again recognizing that could be difficult to summarize, but is it a matter of people having a different outlook or a different reaction function, a different commit ...

Steve Leeman. Now, no change in the Federal Reserve funds rate, staying at a net level of four and a quarter to four and a half percent. Some really interesting stuff in the forecast.Let me tell you about the assessment of the economy. First, they're saying the economy continues to expand at a solid pace. Unemployment remains low.Inflation is somewhat elevated. And they talk about the idea that swings in net exports, all that front running is affecting the data. Now, the Fed forecast increase the inflation ...

Monetary Policy & Economic Concerns - The Senator has previously urged Powell to cut rates [1] - The current economic situation is complex, with moderated inflation but a softening labor environment [3] - Trump's policies, including tariffs and national debt management, are creating economic chaos [3] - Trump's actions create a dilemma for the Fed regarding rate adjustments, impacting both employment and inflation [4] Fed Independence - Trump has been attempting to undermine Jerome Powell and the independence of the Fed [7] - Maintaining the Fed's independence is crucial for the strength of the American economy [10] - Republicans in the Senate are trying to undermine the Fed's independence, for example, by attempting to cut salaries of people who work at the fed [12] - Congress has already established laws to preserve the Fed's independence [12]

Inflation & Tariffs - The market is underestimating the potential impact of oil prices, which could rival or even exceed the uncertainty surrounding tariffs [3][4] - Tariffs' inflationary impact is still anticipated, though not yet significantly observed [1][8] - The effects of tariff increases on prices are largely unseen to date [8] Oil Market - Geopolitical strife in the Middle East introduces significant uncertainty regarding future oil prices [3] - A rapid surge in oil prices, potentially exceeding $100 per barrel due to events like the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, could shock industrial economies [5] Monetary Policy - Current Federal Reserve policy is considered slightly tight, with a real interest rate a little high [6] - The Federal Reserve can afford to wait and observe the development of tariff and oil uncertainties [7] Housing Market - The housing sector, particularly new residential construction spending, constitutes approximately 4% of GDP and is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve due to its interest rate sensitivity [9][10]

Maybe I should go to the Fed. Do you Am I allowed to point myself, Doug. I don't know.Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed. I do a much better job than these people. So, anyway, we should be two points lower. Be nice to be two and a half points lower.We'd be saving $800 billion. 700 billion. That's a lot of money.Think for nothing. For absolutely nothing, we'd save 67800 billion dollar. We have I think we're 38th now in interest and we should be number one.We should be the lowest. But uh and by the way ...

U.S. stock futures are little changed ahead of tomorrow's Juneteenth holiday as investors continue to watch developments in the Israel-Iran conflict and prepare for today's Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. Here's what investors need to know today. https://t.co/svxpHAUgxl ...

Fed Policy & Interest Rates - The CNBC Fed survey projects the Fed funds rate to be at 389% by the end of the year [1] - The base case expectation is that the Fed will cut rates one to two times this year, aligning with the Fed's communication [2] - The Fed's policy statement is expected to remain unchanged, with any news potentially emerging from the statement of economic projections [3] - The Fed is expected to maintain its current stance, awaiting further data to clarify inflation expectations [7] Economic Uncertainty & Geopolitical Factors - There's increased uncertainty due to the Middle East situation, reciprocal tariffs, and unclear US-China relations [4][5] - Geopolitics is playing a bigger role in inflation expectations [6] - The Fed's tools are limited in addressing changes in trade policy, the political environment, and geopolitical factors [6] US Dollar & Treasury Market - The dollar has shown weakness, with a temporary rebound as a flight to safety [8] - Foreign buyers have reduced their holdings of US Treasuries, decreasing from 50% to 30% over the past decade [8] - Dollar depreciation is anticipated to continue marginally, with treasury market volatility expected, especially in the long end [13] Investor Sentiment & Market Dynamics - Investors, including sophisticated institutional investors, are questioning their geographic allocation to US assets [10] - The depth and liquidity of US markets, including treasuries, the dollar, and private assets, remain robust [11] - There is still no alternative to the US dollar [12] - A transition is occurring that matters for flows and valuations, but it is marginal from a geopolitical perspective at the moment [12]

Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve (Fed) aims to promote maximum employment and stable prices, managing inflation without causing economic recession [1] - The Fed influences the economy by setting the federal funds rate, impacting short-term borrowing costs for banks, which then affects consumer and business loans [1] - Raising interest rates can slow down economic expansion by making borrowing more expensive, potentially leading to higher unemployment and recession [1] - The market anticipates Fed actions, with stock prices reacting immediately to signals about future rate hikes or cuts, reflecting collective views about the economy 6 to 9 months out [2] - The stock market tends to perform well when the Fed is perceived as supportive, meaning rate hikes are off the table and rate cuts are anticipated [3] Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The stock market acts as a forecasting machine, anticipating future economic conditions and reacting swiftly to new data that alters expectations [2] - During Fed tightening cycles, bad economic news can be good news for the stock market, as it increases the likelihood of the Fed easing up [2] - Certain sectors, such as home builders and automakers, are economically sensitive and can signal an upcoming economic slowdown [6] - Investors should monitor indicators like paper stocks and copper prices to gauge the economy's temperature and make informed investment decisions [6][7] Historical Crashes and Fed's Role - Historical market crashes, such as those in 1987, 1998, 2000, and 2008, highlight the Fed's potential impact on exacerbating or mitigating economic crises [5][6] - The Fed's actions, whether perceived as timely or tone-deaf, can significantly influence market stability and investor confidence [6]