Bank of America reported Tuesday that 88% of small and mid-size business owners say inflation is hitting their operations, prompting 64% to plan price hikes and 39% to curb spending next year. https://t.co/oIgMh9NCEy https://t.co/8eRGoaijUi ...

Hello everyone. I've got a very special treat for you today. We've got a conversation with Joseph Wei.Joseph is the principal at fedguy. com and he's also the author of the bestselling book central banking 101. This guy understands the Federal Reserve better than almost anyone I've ever talked to.He understands how they make decisions, what data they use, and how their decision-making impacts financial markets. And Joseph's going to explain all of that to us today, including what's he excited about in the f ...

Inflation Outlook - The Fed was divided on whether inflation would rise too high [1] - Some members noted inflation had been above target for some time with little sign of returning [2] - Concerns existed regarding persistent core non-housing services inflation and tariff-related inflation in core goods [2] - Businesses planned to raise prices gradually in response to higher tariff-related input costs [2] - Productivity gains might limit the pass-through of tariff costs [3] Economic Activity & Labor Market - The economy was expanding at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate remained low [1] - A few members thought the softening labor market and changes in immigration would keep prices in check [3] - Elevated risks to the labor market were observed, particularly for groups historically more sensitive to economic cycles [3][4] - Divergence existed between subdued job growth and relatively strong GDP [4] - Trade tensions could weigh on economic activity [4] Monetary Policy - Many participants favored lowering the target range for the federal funds rate [4] - Strongly differing views existed regarding the appropriate policy decision at the December meeting [5] - The minutes confirm the Fed was divided and uncertain about the economic outlook [6]

Fed officials are divided over whether to cut interest rates again in December, according to minutes from the central bank’s last policy meeting. “In discussing the near-term course of monetary policy, participants expressed strongly differing views about what policy decision would most likely be appropriate at the Committee’s December meeting,” the minutes read. While “most” members of the Fed thought that lowering rates at the December meeting would be appropriate as the central bank moves rates toward ...

Monetary Policy Debate - The market initially anticipated a more dovish stance, but the October meeting minutes revealed a potentially more hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve [1] - A significant debate occurred regarding the October rate cut and potential December cuts, indicating internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve [1][5] - Many participants suggested maintaining the funds rate unchanged for the remainder of the year, while only a few supported further rate cuts [1] Inflation and Employment Concerns - Most participants were concerned that rate cuts could exacerbate the risk of entrenched higher inflation [2] - There was general agreement that upside risks to inflation were elevated, and downside risks to employment were also elevated [2] - Some favored lowering the target due to downside risks to employment and little change or diminishing inflation [3] Economic Assessment - Some participants believed that progress toward the 2% inflation target had stalled, or that inflation had actually increased, leading to a lack of confidence in achieving the target [4] - The Federal Reserve debated the restrictiveness of the current policy relative to the neutral rate, with some arguing it remained restrictive even after a 0.25% point cut [4] - Others viewed the economy as resilient, with supportive financial market conditions and no clear indication that the Federal Reserve's policy was restrictive [5]

Core Viewpoint - US officials are reconsidering the timing of semiconductor tariffs, which may delay a key aspect of Trump's economic agenda [1][4][7] Group 1: Tariff Discussions - Recent communications indicate that the administration is taking a cautious approach to semiconductor tariffs to avoid escalating trade tensions with China [2][3] - Trump previously announced a potential 100% tariff on semiconductor imports, but the administration is now debating the timing and specifics of these tariffs [4][6] - Officials have stated that no final decision has been made regarding the tariffs, and they could still be imposed at any time [4] Group 2: Economic Implications - Delaying tariffs could be politically motivated, as rising consumer prices are a concern ahead of the holiday shopping season [7] - Imposing tariffs on semiconductors could increase consumer costs for various electronic devices, potentially affecting prices for items like smartphones and refrigerators [8] - The administration's approach to tariffs is also influenced by ongoing inflation concerns, which have persisted since Biden took office [9] Group 3: Trade Relations with China - The US is attempting to maintain a trade truce with China, a major supplier of semiconductors, while also warning of potential national security measures that could be objectionable to Beijing [9][10] - Trump's strategy includes using tariffs to revive domestic manufacturing jobs that have been lost to foreign competition, particularly from China [10] Group 4: Broader Policy Context - The Trump administration has initiated investigations into imports of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, citing national security concerns related to reliance on foreign production [11]

You know, you just heard Steve Leeman at the top saying these minutes were to him a little confusing. The Fed seems divided. I mean, all the data is all the same for everybody.So, it's weird to see a lot of the same people with the same data with very different conclusions. >> Yeah, I'll tell you what. Uh, I glanced over most of the major headlines and read through as much as I could before I was on air and I don't see at all the hawkishness that Steve sees.Here's what I saw. I saw likely not appropriate. T ...

A majority of Federal Reserve policymakers expressed support in late October for further interest rate cuts, though not all committed to making the reduction at their next meeting in December, according to minutes released Wednesday.At the same time, many officials said “it would likely be appropriate” to keep rates “unchanged for the rest of the year,” a sign of strong divisions among policymakers about the central bank’s next steps.Rate cuts by the Fed, over time, typically lower borrowing costs for mortg ...

Core Insights - As individuals approach retirement, their primary financial concerns revolve around managing market volatility and inflation [1] Group 1 - The focus on market volatility is critical for retirement planning [1] - Inflation poses significant challenges for retirees, impacting their purchasing power [1]

to show you why retail isn't really here, right. To kind of explain like, hey, the reason social interest is at zero like it was back in 2019 is because Main Street's hurting. And in order for Main Street not to be hurting, we need to we need for them not to be so worried about the labor market. We need them to not be so worried about inflation.Um, we need lower rates. But the issue is that over a long enough period of time, the only way the politicians know to solve our issues is to print more money. So ye ...