Oil Price & Market Dynamics - Oil prices experienced a significant drop, with WTI showing a slight upside in early Asian trading sessions following a double-digit percentage slump over the past two days [1][3] - US crude stockpiles showed another drop, contributing to a roughly 5% decline in New York-traded crude prices over two days [4] - President Trump signaled a desire to maintain Iranian oil flow, a shift from previous strategies of restricting Iranian energy exports [2] Geopolitical Factors & Risk - A fragile ceasefire brokered by President Trump between Israel and Iran reduces the risk premium on oil supplies, but the situation remains unstable [4][5][7] - The US essentially gave China, Iran's largest crude customer, the go-ahead to continue purchasing Iranian oil, potentially as an olive branch amid trade uncertainties [5] - China's approach to importing Iranian oil remains uncertain given potential sanctions [6] Iran's Situation & Strategy - Iran's proxy network, including Hezbollah, has been significantly weakened but retains some capacity to cause damage, with estimates suggesting Hezbollah still possesses approximately 20% of its missile capacity [10][11] - Iran's primary focus is regime survival, potentially opening a window for nuclear diplomacy and negotiation [13][14] - The Iranian regime is interested in maintaining its proxy network, no matter how weak, and will review its military deterrence strategy [12] Potential for Future Conflict - Israel, particularly the Prime Minister, remains concerned about Iran's ability to reconstitute its nuclear fuel capacity, potentially hindering long-term peace [8] - The question remains whether Israel will halt military action against Iran, and whether the US President will pressure the Israeli Prime Minister to do so [15][16]

We're with them all the way. If you take a look at the numbers, we're with them. And they're very big things to announce.And I don't know if you've taken the vote or you're going to take the vote, but I've been asking them to go up to 5% for a number of years and they're going up to 5%. That's a big from 2%. And a lot of people didn't even pay the 2%.So I think it's going to be very big news that it is going to become very strong with us. And I appreciate doing it. Perhaps you want to jump.Yeah, absolutely. ...

Early US intelligence findings suggest US airstrikes had a limited impact on Tehran's nuclear program. Also on the show: a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel appears to be holding; Jerome Powell faced questioning on Capitol Hill repeating that policymakers need not rush to adjust rates; President Trump says China can continue buying oil from Iran; Trump shared a private message from the NATO Secretary General praising his actions in Iran. Guests include: Omar Rahman, Middle East Council on Global Aff ...

>> Meantime Israel accusing Iran of violating a cease fire between the two countries. Israel saying it identified missiles launched from Iran. Now Iran denying it broke that agreement.This comes hours after President Trump posted online that, quote, the cease fire is now in effect. Please do not violate it, he said. The president leaving Washington this morning for a NATO summit in the Netherlands.Megan Cassella, joins us now with the latest from Washington, D. C. Good morning, guys.>> Good morning to a lot ...

Market Reaction to Geopolitical Events - Equity markets are seemingly moving past concerns related to geopolitical events, as evidenced by Asian FX and dollar offer trends [1] - The oil market is largely discounting the recent flare-up in US-Iranian conflict, with prices falling below the June 12 level [3] - Oil traders perceive minimal risk to the market, contingent on no strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure and no disruption to the Strait of Hormuz [2] Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The oil market's focus is shifting to supply and demand fundamentals, which are currently bearish [4] - Widespread expectations suggest oil supplies will outpace demand in the second half of the year [5] - Chinese demand growth has been weak in recent months, contributing to the bearish outlook [6] - OPEC plus has been agreeing to increase output more than normal, adding barrels to the market [8] - Iran has been increasing its exports, further contributing to the supply glut [8] Price Outlook - The market sentiment has swung back to a bearish view, with discussions shifting from extreme scenarios like $100 oil to potentially lower prices [6] - The $60 range is considered a likely level for oil prices, barring disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz [9] - Shale drillers potentially taking advantage of the recent price spike could add supply, putting downward pressure on prices [9]

Geopolitical Impact on Markets - US-Iran tensions initially caused market anxiety, but a ceasefire was announced, leading to a market rally [1][2][22] - Historical data suggests that major US war events typically trigger short-term market dips, followed by bull markets [7] - Macroeconomic or geopolitical shocks often lead to a significant drawdown in the stock market, but recovery is typical, with a median recovery time of 17 days [9][10] Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - Bitcoin experienced a dip during the initial strike but recovered, highlighting its 24/7 global and liquid nature [3][4] - Bitcoin's volatility is expected, with a 5% dip considered normal, and it has shown significant growth over the past 90 days (up 15%) and year (up over 50%) [4][5] - Altcoins are also showing signs of recovery, with investors being bullish on certain ecosystems like SUI [11] Monetary Policy and Asset Inflation - Global M2 money supply is expanding, which historically correlates with asset inflation, including Bitcoin, with an 80% correlation over time [8] - The US stock market's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is currently at 40x, indicating it is overvalued compared to historical averages and other developed/emerging markets [14] - The Federal Reserve has ended reputational risk oversight, easing crypto banking restrictions, which is considered bullish for the crypto market [13] Industry Developments and Opportunities - Delorean Motor Company (DMC) is launching a crypto on the SUI network, with an airdrop of over 15 million DMC tokens [11][12] - Hedge fund veterans are planning a $100 million BNB Treasury bet, indicating institutional interest in Binance's token [24] - VChain is experiencing growth, with 27 million addresses and 20 million actions [23]

Geopolitical Tensions - US President addresses criticism regarding potential military conflict with Iran, expressing disagreement with conservatives skeptical of military intervention [2] - Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issues warning/threat to Israel, indicating potential missile strikes [4] - Rhetoric from all parties is escalating [5] US Stance - US President appears ambivalent about US involvement in potential conflict with Iran [5] - US President has not made any final decisions regarding potential conflict with Iran and will be holding a meeting in the situation room [5]

Geopolitical Landscape & US Foreign Policy - President Trump abruptly cancelled meetings at the G7 summit, citing the need to address the ongoing conflict in the Middle East [1][2] - The US is considering its role in supporting Israel, weighing military intervention against diplomatic solutions [3][4] - President Trump stated he is seeking a definitive "end" to the conflict rather than a ceasefire [5] - German Chancellor indicated that complete destruction of Iranian nuclear program is on the agenda if Iran does not back down, which Israel cannot achieve alone [4] Trade Negotiations & International Relations - Limited tangible progress was made on the trade front at the G7 summit, despite numerous meetings with G7 and EU leaders [7] - President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the EU's trade offers, deeming them unfair [8] - A potential trade deal with Japan is possible, but negotiations are expected to be challenging [8] - The German Chancellor anticipates a resolution to the tariff dispute with the US (EU) before the end of summer [9][10] - President Trump views the EU as economically competitive and potentially challenging to the United States [11] - The US may consider extending the July 9th deadline for trade negotiations with the EU if progress is being made [11][12][14]

We're not looking for a ceasefire. I didn't say I was looking for a ceasefire. We were looking for better than a ceasefire. What specifically is better than a ceasefire.What are you looking for here. An a real end, not a ceasefire. And then so something that will be permanent.Yeah. Or or uh giving up entirely. Is that okay too.Are you close there. Is are you possible. Is that possible in the next 24 hours.Certainly possible. We'll come down so hard if they do anything to our people. We'll come down so hard ...

Hey guys, good morning. It was a surprise and a sudden departure for the president from here late last night. The White House saying that he was leaving early in order to focus on everything that's going on in the Middle East.And as you mentioned, the president spoke with reporters on that flight back uh to Washington on Air Force One, making news mostly on Iran. Take a listen here. We're not looking for a ceasefire. I didn't say I was looking for a ceasefire.What specifically is better than a ceasefire. Wh ...