Market Overview - The Holiday Season has begun in the United States, with a focus on market sectors as 2025 closes [1] - Global stock markets are performing well, particularly the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average show seasonal strength [1] Commodity Insights - Investors and central banks are increasingly buying Gold as a safe haven against economic uncertainty and persistent inflation [2] - Silver is gaining interest due to its industrial applications in green technologies, despite mixed sentiments in the US regarding "green" initiatives [2] Energy Market Analysis - The energy markets are described as stagnant, with forward curves in backwardation for Brent crude, WTI crude, and distillates, indicating a disconnect from traditional bullish supply and demand signals [2] - Natural gas is highlighted as a key market indicator, but the overall sentiment suggests looking for opportunities elsewhere in the energy sector [2]

Core Insights - The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) and the iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) are both focused on leading U.S. consumer staples companies, but they differ in cost, diversification, and portfolio tilt [1] Cost & Size Comparison - IYK has an expense ratio of 0.38%, while VDC is more affordable at 0.09%, making it cheaper by 0.29 percentage points [2][3] - As of October 27, 2025, IYK has an AUM of $1.3 billion, whereas VDC has a significantly larger AUM of $8.5 billion [2] Performance & Risk Metrics - Over the past five years, IYK has a max drawdown of -15.05%, compared to VDC's -16.54% [4] - A $1,000 investment in IYK would have grown to $1,417 over five years, while the same investment in VDC would have grown to $1,344 [4] Holdings Overview - VDC consists of 103 holdings, primarily in the consumer defensive sector (98%), with major positions in Walmart, Costco, and Procter & Gamble [5] - IYK is more concentrated with 55 holdings and includes a 10% allocation to healthcare stocks, featuring top holdings like Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, and Philip Morris International [6] Total Return Analysis - Over the past five years, IYK delivered a total return of 57%, while VDC provided a total return of 51% [8] - In a 10-year timeframe, IYK's total return was 132%, outperforming VDC's 110% [9] Dividend Performance - The latest quarterly dividend payment for VDC was 28.1% lower than five years ago, indicating disappointing cash flow growth for investors [10] - Conversely, IYK's latest dividend payment was 108% higher than the payout from a year earlier, showing positive growth in dividends [10]

Core Insights - The article provides an update on the performance of the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio, highlighting that all five ETFs in the Ivy Portfolio remain in an "invest" position as of the end of October [5][7][14]. Ivy Portfolio Overview - The Ivy Portfolio is constructed using an asset allocation strategy similar to that of Harvard and Yale endowment funds, consisting of five ETFs that cover various asset classes [2]. - The strategy involves creating a diversified portfolio with equal weight across asset classes, calculating a 10-month moving average for each fund, and making buy/sell decisions based on whether the fund closes above or below this average [3]. Ivy Portfolio Performance - At the end of October, none of the five ETFs in the Ivy Portfolio closed below their 10-month or 12-month simple moving averages, indicating a continued "invest" position [5][7]. - The percentage above or below the moving average for each fund is tracked, with funds within 2% of the signal highlighted for potential position reversals [6]. S&P 500 Performance - The S&P 500 closed October with a monthly gain of 2.3%, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains, and closed 11.0% above its 10-month simple moving average [8][10]. - The index also closed 11.6% above its 12-month simple moving average, maintaining an "invest" position for six straight months [12]. Moving Averages Strategy - Utilizing a moving average strategy can effectively manage risks associated with bear markets, where holding the index is advised when it closes above the moving average and moving to cash when it closes below [9]. - The article illustrates that a 10- or 12-month simple moving average strategy would have allowed participation in most upside movements since 1995 while significantly reducing losses [10][15]. Psychological Factors - The article discusses the psychology behind momentum signals, noting that human behavior often leads to buying during market uptrends and selling during downturns, which can create cycles of buying and selling momentum [16]. Implementation Considerations - The moving average strategy is most effective when applied to specific investments rather than broad indices, as signals may differ due to factors like dividend reinvestment [17]. - The strategy is recommended for use in tax-advantaged accounts with low-cost brokerage services to maximize gains [18].

Core Viewpoint - Seaboard Corporation (SEB) is rated as a Buy, indicating a positive outlook for generating value for investors due to its diversified operations [1] Company Analysis - Seaboard Corporation has diversified its operations, which is expected to contribute to its continued value generation for investors [1] Analyst Background - Daniel Mellado, an economist with a Master's Degree in Statistics, has experience in analyzing the agricultural commodity market and managing trading and data analysis teams [1] - His expertise includes developing strategies for algorithmic trading and providing analysis and valuation for companies in commodities, banking, technology, and pharmaceuticals [1]

Core Insights - Money market accounts (MMAs) are hybrid deposit accounts that combine features of checking and savings accounts, often providing check-writing capabilities and debit cards while earning interest [1][2][4] Group 1: Definition and Features - Money market accounts are deposit accounts offered by banks and credit unions, distinguished from traditional savings accounts by their higher interest rates and additional features [2][17] - These accounts are FDIC insured up to $250,000, providing a safe place to hold funds while earning interest [3][19] - Many money market accounts allow limited check-writing and debit card usage, although some banks impose transaction limits [4][19] Group 2: Misconceptions - A common misconception is that money market accounts are the same as money market funds; they are distinct financial instruments with different risk profiles and insurance coverage [5][6][7] - Money market accounts are not designed to protect against inflation, as their interest rates may not keep pace with inflation rates [9][10] - Holding a large allocation in money market accounts can be inefficient due to changing inflation rates, and diversification is recommended [11][14] Group 3: Investment Strategy - It is suggested that individuals should not rely solely on money market accounts for savings; instead, a diversified investment strategy can yield better returns [13][15][16] - Establishing an emergency fund in money market accounts is advisable, but excess funds should be invested to avoid opportunity costs [12][19] - A strategic approach involves categorizing funds into short-term, mid-term, and long-term buckets to optimize savings and investment [15][16]

Core Insights - Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO) is a leading player in the premium fresh produce market, particularly in avocados, while also expanding into other categories like mangos and blueberries [1][2] - The company is experiencing increased sales volume due to improved supply conditions, but this has led to price pressures that may impact profitability [2][4] Financial Performance - In Q3 fiscal 2025, total revenues increased by 10%, primarily due to a 10% rise in avocado volumes sold, although this was partially offset by a 5% decline in average selling prices [2][9] - The company anticipates a 15% increase in industry volumes in Q4 fiscal 2025, driven by strong Peruvian supply and a new Mexican crop, but expects prices to drop by 20-25% compared to the previous year [3][9] Market Dynamics - The blueberry harvest season in Peru is expected to ramp up, contributing to higher volumes from owned farms, which may counterbalance revenue growth due to lower average selling prices [4] - Mission Produce is focusing on operational efficiency, cost control, and diversification to mitigate the impact of declining prices on margins [4] Competitive Landscape - Key competitors include Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) and Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO), both of which are enhancing their market positions through innovation and operational agility [5][6][7] Valuation and Estimates - Mission Produce shares have declined by 20.6% year-to-date, contrasting with the industry’s growth of 1.5% [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 28.09X, significantly higher than the industry average of 13.03X [10] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates indicate a year-over-year decline of 9.5% for fiscal 2025 and 28.4% for fiscal 2026, with stable estimates over the past 30 days [11]

Core Insights - Long-term investing is accessible to anyone due to no-fee brokerages and fractional-share trading, but it requires time for investments to grow significantly [1] - Successful long-term investing is deliberate and planned, focusing on strategies that encompass key elements for success [2] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Diversification is essential for long-term investing, as it minimizes exposure to any single investment and reduces volatility [3] - The "buy and hold" strategy is recommended by renowned investors, emphasizing the importance of staying invested to benefit from compounding and capital appreciation [3] - Dollar-cost averaging is a strategy that helps investors manage contributions, maintain discipline, and ensure consistency over long investment horizons [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Market unpredictability is driven by numerous variables, making it difficult for even experienced investors to predict market movements consistently [6] - Missing key positive trading days can significantly impact returns; for instance, missing the 10 best days over the last 30 years would have halved returns, while missing the 30 best days would have reduced returns by 83% [6]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing selling pressure following a rate cut decision and disappointing discussions between China and the US, leading to a slight decline from all-time highs [2][3]. - There is a notable rotation in the market, moving away from big tech stocks that previously led gains [3][4]. - Diversification is emphasized as important in the current market environment, particularly with the volatility associated with AI-related trades [5]. Group 2 - Corning has reported record sales and is experiencing a strong uptrend, with a more than 100% increase over the last six months [5][7]. - The stock has broken above previous resistance levels, indicating potential for further upside [10][13]. - A trading strategy involves buying the stock and writing a call option to capture upside momentum while managing tax implications [15]. Group 3 - Cummins is highlighted for its strength in the industrial sector, particularly in engine and battery delivery systems, which contributes to its upward momentum [17][18]. - The stock has shown a strong price action with a recent breakout above previous highs, indicating continued bullish sentiment [21][24]. - A suggested trading strategy includes buying a call spread while selling a put to finance the position, allowing for upside capture [28]. Group 4 - Palo Alto Networks is maintaining upside momentum ahead of its earnings announcement, with the stock trading near all-time highs [30][31]. - The stock has shown significant price appreciation, moving from 165 to 220, with key support levels identified around 215 to 218 [33][37]. - A defined risk trading strategy is proposed, involving a call spread to capitalize on potential price appreciation while limiting downside risk [38].

Group 1 - Hedge fund managers were once dominant in Wall Street but faced challenges in the 2010s as their returns lagged behind indexes [2] - Institutional investors shifted their focus towards more attractive alternatives like private equity during the same period [2]

Core Insights - The increasing demand for technology, particularly AI, is raising concerns about the environmental impact, specifically the freshwater usage required for data centers [1][4][5] - Comparisons are being drawn between the current tech stock environment and the dot-com bubble, with questions about whether stock values have become unreasonable [2][4] - The concentration of investments in major tech firms poses risks for investors, as even those not directly holding tech stocks are affected through major indices like the S&P 500 [3][5] Investment Landscape - Major tech firms are heavily investing in AI, with expenditures reaching hundreds of billions, yet revenue generated remains significantly lower, raising concerns about profitability [6][8] - The projected energy demand for AI could require $500 billion in annual capital expenditures by 2030, leading to a potential revenue gap of $800 billion [8] - Despite a combined market valuation of $1 trillion for 10 AI startups, none have reported profits, indicating a potential overvaluation in the sector [9] Strategic Considerations - Financial advisors are urging clients to remain cautious and consider diversifying investments into sectors like emerging markets, water, metals, and energy [4][11] - Portfolio strategies may include investments in natural gas, nuclear energy, and technologies related to water supply and purification [11] - Clients are encouraged to understand their investments better and manage liquidity, as the market may experience volatility related to AI developments [10][11][12]