Group 1 - The current state of the U.S. fiscal situation is highlighted in a recent prediction by David Kotok, co-founder and former CIO of Cumberland Advisors, who manages $3.3 billion in assets [1] - Kotok estimates that U.S. tariff measures will reduce S&P 500 earnings per share by $30 over the next 12 months, decreasing the expected earnings from $260 to $230 [1] - He notes that if the combined pressures of tariffs and economic slowdown persist, earnings per share could fall to the range of $200-220, leading to an S&P 500 index drop to 4000-4400 points based on a 20x price-to-earnings ratio [1] Group 2 - In a pessimistic scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop below 4000 points, but if tariffs remain at an initial expected rate of 10% and the U.S. service trade surplus faces only mild retaliation, the index could hold around 5000 points [2] - Kotok emphasizes that a shift in Trump’s policies could alter the trajectory, and a financial crisis triggering Federal Reserve intervention would significantly reshape the landscape [2]

5月5日，美国纽约州州长凯西·霍楚尔（Kathy Hochul）宣布，她已同意偿还约 65 亿美元的联邦政府债 务。此后，纽约州的失业救济金将增加，企业税将减少。此前，这位民主党州长已排除动用州储备金偿 还债务的可能性，这是他与州参议院多数党领袖安德里亚·斯图尔特-考辛斯 (民主党) 和州议长卡尔·希斯 蒂 (民主党) 就预计至少 2540 亿美元的预算达成的更广泛协议的一部分。议员们最早可能在本周就支出 法案进行投票，这将是 15 年来的最新预算。 ...