Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of US-Iran nuclear negotiations, highlighting the challenges and complexities arising from recent events, including Israeli attacks on Iran and the lack of trust between the parties involved [1][12]. Summary by Sections Progress in Negotiations - The first five rounds of indirect talks between the US and Iran resulted in four key agreements: 1. Iran agreed to implement the highest level of transparency and verification mechanisms for its nuclear facilities [2]. 2. Iran consented to dilute or transfer 400 kilograms of enriched uranium to prevent the possibility of building nuclear weapons [2]. 3. Iran will reduce the enrichment level of uranium to below 5% for civilian reserves, alleviating concerns about its potential to enrich uranium to weapon-grade levels [2]. 4. Iran will cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to resolve remaining technical issues [2]. Challenges in Negotiations - The negotiations face significant hurdles due to differing perceptions of sanctions relief. The US insists on Iran taking specific actions first, while Iran views phased sanctions relief as a prerequisite for negotiations [6]. - The core conflict lies in the US's belief that Iran's nuclear program aims to develop weapons, while Iran maintains that its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes [7]. Impact of Regional Dynamics - The article notes the cyclical nature of the conflict, where Iran's nuclear development prompts Israeli military actions, leading to further negotiations and escalations [5]. - The Israeli policy of "nuclear ambiguity" complicates the situation, as Iran perceives attacks from a nation that does not openly acknowledge its nuclear arsenal as unjustifiable [6]. Potential Withdrawal from NPT - Following recent conflicts, Iran is considering drafting a bill to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which could lead to severe diplomatic and security challenges for Iran [8][9]. - The article emphasizes that while there are calls within Iran to exit the NPT, such a move would be detrimental to its international standing and security [9]. US Domestic Perspectives - There is a notable preference among the American public for diplomatic solutions over military action regarding Iran's nuclear program, with a majority opposing military strikes [11]. - The article highlights internal divisions within the US government regarding the approach to Iran, with some advocating for military action while others support diplomatic engagement [10]. Future of Negotiations - The article concludes that the path to resuming negotiations is fraught with difficulties, particularly due to Iran's low trust in the US following military actions and the need for assurances against further attacks during negotiations [12]. - Despite the challenges, there remains hope for a peaceful resolution, emphasizing the importance of diplomatic efforts to stabilize the situation in the Middle East [12].

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Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

来源：央视新闻 参考消息 北京日报 当地时间7月2日， 伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬批准暂停与国际原子能机构合作。 伊朗正式颁布法律 暂停与国际原子能机构合作 当地时间6月26日，伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫通过其社交账号表示，经宪法监护委员会批准，伊 朗暂停与国际原子能机构合作的法律已于当天正式颁布。 他同时批评国际原子能机构为战争和侵略行为提供便利，沦为以色列政权的代理人，伊朗将 在确保本国核设施安全之前，停止与该机构的一切合作。 "伊核计划被推迟约1至2年" 美国防部再称摧毁伊朗核设施 当地时间7月2日，美国国防部发言人肖恩·帕内尔表示，美国目前的评估是 伊朗核设施已被 摧毁，伊朗核计划已被推迟约1至2年 。 本月早些时候，美国对伊朗的三处核设施发动打击。美国总统特朗普和其他白宫官员多次高 调宣布胜利，但有关"伊朗核设施已被摧毁"的说法外界并不认可。美国媒体更是屡屡"拆 台"。目前，与伊朗核能力有关的伊核设施受损情况、是否转移浓缩铀，各方表态仍不统一。 美国务院：伊朗暂停与国际原子能机构的合作"不可接受" 当地时间7月2日，美国国务院称，伊朗选择暂停与国际原子能机构的合作是"不可接受的"， 伊朗必须立即全面与国际原子能机 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. State Department finds Iran's decision to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency unacceptable, emphasizing the need for Iran to fully cooperate without further delays [6] - Iran's Foreign Minister stated that there is currently no accurate information regarding damage to nuclear facilities, but it appears these facilities are currently non-operational, pending an assessment report on their potential restart [7] - The U.S. Department of Defense reiterated that the destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities has delayed the Iranian nuclear program by approximately 1 to 2 years [4] Group 2 - Ongoing airstrikes by Israel in Gaza have resulted in 108 fatalities [1] - Hamas is reviewing a newly received draft for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza [2] - An Iranian official warned of a devastating response if enemies launch another invasion [3] - The Israeli Foreign Minister indicated it is time to reinitiate "sanction countermeasures" against Iran [5]

Core Viewpoint - For Iran, as long as it retains its "green mountains," it cannot be considered a loss. The "green mountains" refer to the survival of the regime and the capability to develop nuclear energy [1][12]. Group 1: Iran's Responses - The first response was a symbolic retaliation, where Iran launched 14 missiles at the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, resulting in no casualties due to prior warnings [3]. - The second response involved celebrating a perceived victory, with public celebrations in Iran and a speech from Supreme Leader Khamenei, who claimed victory over "false Jewish nationalism" and the U.S. [4]. - The third response was a national mourning ceremony held in Tehran for over 60 individuals, including high-ranking military officials and civilians, who died in the conflict [6]. Group 2: Future Negotiations - It is anticipated that Iran will soon return to the negotiation table, as indicated by U.S. President Trump's confidence in reaching an agreement regarding Iran's nuclear program [8][17]. - The U.S. aims to place Iran's nuclear development under strict supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and may also seek to limit Iran's missile development capabilities [13]. - Iran's Foreign Minister has publicly requested that Trump show respect towards Iran's leadership if he genuinely wishes to negotiate [8]. Group 3: Nuclear Capabilities - Despite the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, the IAEA Director General stated that some aspects of Iran's nuclear program may still exist, and Iran possesses significant nuclear expertise and industrial capabilities [10]. - The resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue is suggested to require agreements and verification systems rather than military action [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while the U.S. claims to have completely destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities, there are conflicting reports regarding the actual damage and Iran's ability to recover its nuclear capabilities [1][2] - U.S. President Trump stated that three Iranian nuclear facilities were completely destroyed, leaving only "thousands of tons of rock" at the site, and denied any transfer of materials by Iran prior to the attack [1] - The U.S. Department of Defense criticized media reports suggesting limited damage from the attacks, labeling them as "fake news" and asserting that the military's actions were a significant victory [1] Group 2 - The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Grossi, indicated that despite damage to Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran retains the capability to produce enriched uranium within months [2] - Grossi emphasized that while the facilities were severely damaged, they were not completely destroyed, and Iran still possesses the industrial and technical capacity to resume operations quickly [2] - Analysis from experts suggests that while much of Iran's nuclear infrastructure may have been damaged, the country still has the foundational elements necessary to rebuild or restore its nuclear capabilities over an uncertain timeframe [2]

第二，庆祝胜利。 6月24日，伊朗与以色列的停火共识生效，伊朗人民走上街头庆祝胜利。6月26日，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内 伊发表电视讲话祝贺伊朗取得胜利。哈梅内伊称伊朗不仅战胜了"伪犹太复国主义政权"，还"给了美国 一记重重的耳光"，他祝贺伊朗人民非凡的团结与一致。 第一个反应，表演式反击。 6月23日，伊朗使用短程和中程导弹袭击了美国设在卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地。该次袭击没有造成人员 伤亡。美国总统特朗普事后通过社交媒体感谢伊朗方面提前通知，使美方得以及时采取防护措施，避免 人员伤亡。特朗普还透露，伊朗共发射14枚导弹，其中13枚被拦截，1枚因飞向"不具威胁的方向"而未 予拦截。 在美国于6月22日轰炸了伊朗的核设施之后，伊朗在6天之内作出了3个反应。 第三，举行国葬。 6月28日，伊朗在首都德黑兰举行国葬，悼念在以伊冲突中遇难的60多位高级将领、核科学家、新闻工 作者和妇女儿童。 那么，伊朗的"青山"是什么？ 答案是两个：第一，这个政权还在；第二，发展核能的能力还在。 在笔者看来，上述伊朗特色的反应，即使有人事先没有预料到，事后稍一琢磨也会释然于胸。 如无意外，伊朗的下一步应该是再次走上谈判桌。 这方面，美国总统 ...

【原油、燃料油、生猪、瓶片市场动态及走势分析】贝克休斯油服数据显示，美国钻探公司连续九周削 减石油和天然气钻机数量。至6月27日当周，美国石油钻井总数432口，前值438口。钻机数下降或使美 国原油产量增速持续变缓。7月6日，OPEC+自愿减产8国将开会决定8月产量水平。整体看，美国供给 增长弱，OPEC+提产诉求强，油价上涨动力不足。后续需关注伊核问题和OPEC+产量，把握压力位沽 空机会。 供应方面，6月伊朗高硫燃料油供应未受地缘冲突显著影响。参考船期数据，6月发货量预计 105万吨，环比增8万吨，同比减9万吨。新加坡燃料油库存近期增加，6月较前期上升3.9%，库存压力 使燃料油价格承压。短期内，价格或因中东发电旺季需求和地缘政治不确定性震荡；中期，供应增加、 需求改善有限，价格面临下行压力；长期，新能源替代等因素或使需求减少，价格震荡下行。策略上， 把握压力位沽空机会。 据统计，截至6月27日，生猪出栏均重123.62公斤，降0.16公斤；周度屠宰开工 率27.58%，涨0.13%；外购仔猪养殖利润-58.39元/头，降4.97元/头；自繁自养养殖利润75.35元/头，涨 12.24元/头；仔猪价格43 ...

伊朗方面则致函联合国秘书长及安理会主席，要求追究美国和以色列包括战争赔偿在内的责任。 新华社北京6月30日电 美国媒体当地时间29日基于截获的伊朗官员通信内容报道，美国对伊朗核设施的打击破坏程度和范围均不及他们预期的那 么大。美国总统特朗普同日表示，伊核设施现在"只剩几千吨岩石"。而国际原子能机构总干事格罗西认为，伊朗铀处理能力仍在一定程度上得以 保留。 美媒再曝袭击效果不佳 美国《华盛顿邮报》29日援引四名知情人士的话报道，根据美国获取的伊朗高级官员通信内容，伊朗官员在谈及美方对伊朗核设施的军事打击时 表示，其破坏程度和范围没有像他们预期的那么大。 这张6月22日拍摄的卫星照片显示的是遭美军空袭后的伊朗福尔道核设施部分区域。新华社/美联 "现在那里只剩几千吨岩石" 特朗普在29日福克斯新闻网播出的采访中表示，美国对伊朗福尔道核设施的袭击完全摧毁了目标地点。"现在那里只剩几千吨岩石，整个地方被摧 毁了，伊朗另外两个核设施也被摧毁了"。 报道援引美政府官员的话说，中央情报局局长拉特克利夫在日前的国会机密简报会上说，伊朗多个关键核设施全部遭毁，包括金属转化设施。该 设施生产核弹核心部件，重建需数年之久。拉特克利夫 ...