Learn what economic bubbles are, how they form and burst, and explore historical examples like Tulip Mania and the Dot-Com Bubble, to better understand asset prices' escalation and decline. https://t.co/OAw6ZOna7v ...

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Federal Reserve has effectively abandoned its 2% inflation target, which it hasn't consistently achieved since February 2021 (over 50 months) [1] - The Federal Reserve acknowledges a "0%" chance of returning inflation to the 2% target [2] - Rate cuts are anticipated, leading to an influx of cheap capital into the market [2] Market Outlook - Asset prices are at all-time highs, and further increases are expected due to anticipated rate cuts [1][2] - The US economy is projected to "run hot," benefiting investors [3] - Bears predicting recession are expected to be incorrect [3]

Unfortunately the gap between wages and asset prices is only going to broaden.Job displacement will be exacerbated by technology, particularly AI.It’s no wonder the rich are building bunkers, I don’t see how this doesn’t end with a revolt.If UBI isn’t the solution, what is?CL (@CL207):more and more people cat see is struggling to get joball while wage has been dropping all time lows if you compared to cost of living / rent / asset pricesand since a lot of investing ppl follow cat, if one thing you can do fo ...

Interest Rates and Housing Affordability - Lowering interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not inherently make housing more affordable; in some cases, it can make it less affordable [2][3] - Mortgage rates are more dependent on the long end of the yield curve (e.g., 10-year and 30-year yields) and typically trade 1.5% to 2% higher due to associated risks [6] - The Fed is projected to lower interest rates in September, but this may change based on labor market reports and inflation readings [7] - If the Fed cuts rates preemptively to avoid a recession, it can reignite "animal spirits," causing markets to rise and the bond market to reprice inflation risk, potentially increasing mortgage rates [12][13][14] - Cutting rates prematurely may worsen the real estate market [34] Asset Prices and Housing Market Improvement - Lower asset prices are needed to achieve a durable improvement in housing affordability [22][23][25] - Lower asset prices lead to a lower long end of the yield curve, which in turn leads to lower mortgage rates [39] - The market may take 6 to 12 months to accept the reality that lower asset prices are necessary to improve the real estate market [23] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The housing market is currently seeing a drop in new privately-owned housing units under construction due to unaffordability [20][21] - The author anticipates that after a second round of rate cuts, potentially starting in September, the long end of the yield curve will likely increase, leading to higher mortgage rates [29][30] - It may take a couple of years for the market to accept that lower asset prices are needed to improve the real estate market [33]

Market Overview - Markets are broken and engineered to inflate asset prices indefinitely [1] - A "new normal" has emerged, requiring investors to adapt their mental models [1]

Market Trends & Monetary Policy - The USD is expected to decline [1] - The US might tolerate slightly higher target inflation [1] - This could lead to higher asset prices across a broader mix of assets [1] Debt & Economic Impact - This strategy aims to alleviate the massive debt burden [1]