Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.02% on Friday, recovering from early losses due to reduced liquidity demand from a rally in stocks and higher T-note yields [1] - US personal spending in September increased by +0.3% month-over-month, aligning with expectations, while personal income rose by +0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected +0.3% [3] - The University of Michigan's US December consumer sentiment index increased by +2.3 points to 53.3, exceeding expectations of 52.0 [3] Group 2: Inflation Expectations and Federal Reserve - The University of Michigan's December 1-year inflation expectations eased to 4.1%, better than the expected no change at 4.5%, marking the smallest pace of increase in 11 months [4] - The markets are pricing in a 95% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on December 9-10 [4] Group 3: Euro and Economic News - The EUR/USD fell by -0.03% on Friday, as the euro lost modest gains after the dollar's recovery, despite initial strength from positive Eurozone economic news [5] - Eurozone Q3 GDP was upwardly revised, and German October factory orders reported stronger-than-expected results, contributing to the euro's initial strength [5]

Consumer sentiment in the country has been in the dumps for years and is only worsening. Its leaders seem to think offering the right product could unblock demand https://t.co/ermIbTCwt5 ...

Monthly index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan rose slightly versus November, but remained much lower than where it began the year. ...

The U.S. holiday shopping season opened with record online spending. However, the underlying economic weakness hints at an impending pullback in consumer spending. November saw another drop in consumer confidence, even as Americans spent a record $44.2 billion online during Cyber Week – Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday – according to Adobe Analytics, per Reuters, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.Cyber Monday is also expected to have posted robust results, with Adobe projecting spending to fall between $13.9 bill ...

Consumer sentiment and retail sales have decoupled https://t.co/alFN8zboaQ ...

Consumer Sentiment and Spending Trends - US consumers are showing signs of fatigue leading up to the longest government shutdown, with a worsened outlook impacting the holiday-shopping season [1] - Retail sales increased by a modest 0.2% in September, following several months of stronger spending, indicating a slowdown in consumer consumption [2][9] - Consumer sentiment has dropped to its lowest level in seven months, reflecting concerns about the labor market and overall economic conditions [2] Corporate Earnings and Retail Performance - Recent corporate earnings indicate that consumers are pulling back on big-ticket items and are more inclined to seek bargains, although some retailers like Kohl's and Best Buy have raised their forecasts [4] - Best Buy reported better-than-expected demand during back-to-school shopping and anticipates a strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday, with over half of Americans expecting to spend at least the same amount as last year during the holiday season [5] Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The pre-shutdown economy shows a decline in discretionary spending categories, suggesting a slowdown in consumer momentum [8][10] - The producer price index (PPI) data indicates a modest increase in wholesale inflation, which may influence Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates [7][11] - Policymakers are divided on whether to lower interest rates, with ongoing debates about employment and inflation levels [8][12] Consumer Spending Disparities - Aggregate consumer spending is increasingly supported by wealthier households, while lower- and middle-income groups are facing challenges due to slower wage growth and rising essential costs [10] - There is a disconnect between consumer confidence and actual spending, with indications that incomes may not be rising as quickly as consumer spending suggests [13][14]

Republican strategists have to be scratching their heads tonight, making Zoron Mandani and his communist ways the face of the Democratic party was their top midterm strategy. Trump, at least for now, blew that up tonight. The draconian ice raids have overshadowed any credit Trump could have been receiving for tightening the border.And as for the economy, with or without official data, people know that they are struggling, and many are. But what most people do not realize is that whether their purchasing pow ...

Market Performance - U.S. stocks experienced a positive trading session, with the Dow Jones increasing by 1.20% to 46,299.83, gaining over 500 points [1] - The NASDAQ rose by 0.66% to 22,224.05, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.91% to 6,598.00 [1] Sector Performance - Health care shares saw a significant increase of 2.4% on Friday [1] - Information technology stocks had a modest rise of 0.1% [1] Company Updates - Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC) shares fell by 15% to $69.96 despite posting strong second-quarter earnings [4] - authID Inc (NASDAQ:AUID) shares dropped by 22% to $1.3350 following the announcement of a registered direct offering of approximately $3.675 million [4] - Pasithea Therapeutics Corp (NASDAQ:KTTA) shares decreased by 21% to $0.3337 after releasing interim Phase 1 trial data [5] - Iveda Solutions Inc (NASDAQ:IVDA) shares surged by 28% to $0.8351 due to a new manufacturing partnership in Egypt [9] - Nuvve Holding Corp (NASDAQ:NVVE) shares increased by 42% to $0.2327 after entering a Memorandum of Understanding for transportation electrification [9] - Enviri Corporation (NYSE:NVRI) shares rose by 29% to $17.50 following a $3.04 billion sale to Veolia [9] Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index increased to 51.0 in November from a preliminary reading of 50.3 [2][12] - U.S. wholesale inventories remained flat at approximately $908 billion in August [12] - The S&P Global composite PMI rose to 54.8 in November, surpassing market estimates [12] - The S&P Global services PMI increased to 55 in November, while the manufacturing PMI declined to 51.9, marking the lowest reading in four months [12]

Core Insights - U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 51 in November, down from 53.6 in October, indicating ongoing concerns about affordability as the holiday season approaches [1][2] - The Consumer Sentiment Index remains near historic lows, with a record low of 50 reached in June 2022 [1] - Despite a slight increase from a preliminary reading of 50.3, the overall sentiment reflects consumer frustration with high prices and weakening incomes [2][3] Consumer Sentiment Trends - The sentiment index has shown fluctuations, declining in the first four months of 2025, remaining unchanged in May, and then rising in June and July before declining again [3] - Sentiment among consumers with significant stock holdings dropped about 2 index points from October, likely due to recent stock market declines [4] - The Index of Expectations increased slightly to 51 in November, up from 50.3 in October, but has fallen 33.7% since November 2024 [4] Inflation Expectations - Year-ahead inflation expectations decreased slightly from 4.6% in October to 4.5% in November, indicating a marginal improvement in consumer outlook regarding inflation [5]

Core Insights - Retail and restaurant chains are experiencing the effects of persistent inflation, particularly as lower-income customers reduce their spending [1] Company Summary: Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. - Chipotle's stock fell 19% in one day after missing Q3 revenue estimates and lowering its full-year same-store sales forecast [2] - The average cost of a burrito or bowl at Chipotle is approximately $10-$12, and the company is facing challenges as fewer young Americans dine out due to inflation and declining consumer sentiment [2] - CEO Scott Boatwright noted that customers with household incomes below $100,000 account for about 40% of Chipotle's total sales [3] - There is a "broad-based" decline in dining out across all income levels, attributed to a significant drop in consumer sentiment earlier this year [3] - A report indicated that the consumer confidence index fell for the third consecutive month in October, reaching its lowest level in six months [4] - Young Americans aged 25 to 35 are facing challenges such as unemployment, increased student loans, and slower wage growth, impacting their dining habits [4] - Chipotle now anticipates same-store sales to decline in the low-single-digit range in 2025, a revision from its previous forecast of flat sales [5] - The company's shares have decreased by 47% year-to-date [5] - Boatwright stated that younger consumers are opting to eat at home rather than dining out, indicating a shift in consumer behavior due to rising costs [6]