【宏观周报20251109】国内10月CPI同环比变化均录得上涨 日期: 2025-11-09 【宏观周报20251109】国内10月CPl同环比变化均录得上涨 【宏观总结20251109】 国内经济:10月国内CPI同比环比均录得上涨 11月19日，国内国家统计局1发布数据显示，10月份，全国居民消费价格指数（OP）同比上涨0.2%，环比上涨0.2%，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PP）同比下降2. 1%，降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点，连续第3个月收窄。统计数据显示，10月份、食品价格同比下降2.9%，降幅较上月收窄1.5个百分点。食品价格中，猪肉价格同比 下降16%，降幅较上月收窄1.0个百分点，鲜菜价格同比下降7.3%，降幅较上月大幅收窄6.4个百分点。非食品价格上涨0.9%，其中，服务价格上涨0.8%，涨幅额达上月 上升0.2个百分点。10月份，打内需等政策措施持续显效，叠加国庆中秋俄期带动，CPI同比和环比均上涨0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心9P同比上涨1.2%，涨幅 连续第6个月扩大。当前物价走势的一个重要卖撑点在干，以旧换新政策发力下，汽车、家电等商品价格同比数据上行势头较为明显。这是近朝核心8P ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [11]. Core Insights - In September, central enterprise orders improved, and the decline in investment narrowed. The manufacturing PMI fell significantly in October, indicating a marginal weakening in industry prosperity, while the construction PMI slightly decreased, aligning with seasonal trends [6][20]. - Fixed asset investment in September was 4.5 trillion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year, with a cumulative fixed asset investment of 37.2 trillion yuan for the year, a decrease of 0.5% year-on-year. Narrowly defined infrastructure investment showed a smaller decline compared to previous months [7][25]. - The physical workload showed improvement in October, with cement output declining at a slower rate, and cement dispatch volumes increased marginally [8][50]. - Project funding is being prioritized, with a funding rate of 59.7% for construction sites as of October 28, showing a slight week-on-week increase [9][57]. Summary by Sections Investment & Orders - Central enterprise orders improved in September, with most central enterprises showing positive growth in domestic orders. Notably, China Chemical and China Railway Construction saw significant growth rates of 18.11% and 9.38%, respectively [7][42][44]. - The overall order growth for major construction central enterprises in Q3 was 5.02% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in both domestic and overseas markets [42][44]. Physical Workload - Cement production saw a year-on-year decline of 5.2% from January to September, with a more pronounced drop of 8.6% in September alone. However, cement dispatch volumes showed a week-on-week increase of 8.0% in late October [8][50]. Project Funding - The funding rate for construction projects was reported at 59.7%, with non-residential projects at 61.15% and residential projects at 52.81% as of late October. The issuance of special bonds reached 39.646 billion yuan year-to-date, with a 90% completion rate [9][59].

Economic Overview - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a historical record, with both parties claiming advantages in the ongoing negotiations[3] - In October, the ADP employment numbers exceeded expectations, but showed a significant slowdown compared to earlier in the year, facing risks from layoffs in large companies and the federal government[3] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October remained in contraction for the eighth consecutive month, indicating weak demand and supply, while the Services PMI reached an eight-month high, potentially boosting Q4 economic activity[3] Domestic Economic Conditions - China's manufacturing PMI fell in October, indicating a decline in both domestic and external demand, while the non-manufacturing PMI saw a slight recovery due to holiday and e-commerce promotions[3] - October exports contracted year-on-year due to high base effects and weakening overseas demand, with only automotive, shipbuilding, and integrated circuits showing positive contributions[3] - Domestic policies are actively addressing both long-term reforms and short-term growth targets, with fiscal policies aimed at accelerating effective investments[3] Commodity Prices and Market Trends - Downstream real estate transactions showed a slight recovery, while agricultural wholesale prices remained stable; midstream steel prices decreased while cement prices increased[3] - Upstream, coking coal and coke prices fluctuated, with non-ferrous metals and gold prices declining, and crude oil prices also showing a downward trend[3]

PMI has gone up on Wednesday, great news for the markets.Now, when we're looking at #Bitcoin.Things take time.The markets seem very illiquid now during the government shutdown, the levels remain clear.We need to test $106K and go up from there. https://t.co/TaeRiyMyI3 ...

5 November 2025 | 12:06PM HKT Economics Research China: Unofficial services PMI edged down in October; October inflation and credit preview Bottom line: The headline RatingDog China Services PMI (formerly the Caixin services PMI) edged down to 52.6 in October from 52.9 in September, suggesting services sector activity continued to expand but at a slightly slower pace. Key numbers: S&P Global services PMI: 52.6 in October (Bloomberg consensus: 52.5), vs. 52.9 in September. Main points: 1. The RatingDog China ...

市场趋势与行业动态 - 亚洲股市从四月份以来最大两日跌幅中反弹，逢低买入者回归，此前对估值过高的担忧有所缓解 [1][48] - 美国最高法院对特朗普总统的全球关税表示怀疑，暗示其可能越权 [1][7][49] - 科技股回调引发市场抛售，但对人工智能的乐观情绪依然存在 [16][20] - 美国十年期国债收益率大幅走高，达到 4.15%，财政部暗示可能增加供应 [4][51][95] - 美国经济状况依然强劲，企业盈利表现良好，标普 500 指数近 80% 的公司报告盈利，同比增长 12%，每股收益超出预期 6% [22] - 沙特阿拉伯下调对亚洲的官方售价，并持续关注美国库存的增长 [5][52] - 美元走强，测试 200 日移动平均线，为一年来首次 [6][53] - 尼日利亚重返全球债务市场，通过债券销售筹集 20 亿美元 [39] - 刚果共和国重返全球债务市场，以 13.7% 的收益率出售 6.7 亿美元债券 [42] - 中国将取消对美国农产品的关税，并解除对美国公司的出口限制 [46] 投资机会与潜在风险 - 最高法院对特朗普关税的质疑可能导致关税重新评估和退款 [3][50][51][96] - 估值过高并非股市大跌的唯一原因，需要更大的负面催化剂 [26][27] - 预计标普 500 指数年底将达到 7000 点或接近该水平 [27] - 英国央行预计将维持利率不变，关注即将到来的预算和疲软的数据 [2][49][79][81] - 预计利率下调和市场流动性增加将推动市场上涨 [28] - 卡塔尔计划向埃及投资 35 亿美元，开发旅游景点和高尔夫球场 [64][71] 公司财务表现 - ARM 预计第三季度销售额将达到 13 亿美元，超过预期，人工智能技术需求强劲 [29] - 高通公司对本季度给出了乐观的预测，称销售额已达 120 亿美元，对高端安卓芯片的需求依然强劲 [29] - 土耳其航空公司指责发动机制造商垄断并抬高价格，利润率超过 25% [44][75] - 国泰航空宣布将从卡塔尔航空回购股份，表明对香港航空枢纽地位的信心 [78]

行情回顾： 国际黄金周三（11月5日）震荡收涨，开盘价3956.91美元/盎司，最高价3987.06美元/盎司，最低价3929.30美元/ 盎司，收盘价3978.41美元/盎司。 消息面： 美国10月ADP就业人数录得4.2万人，高于市场预期2.8万人，前值为-3.2万人。（ADP报告：9月份总就业人数 修正为减少2.9万人，此前为减少3.2万人。） ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson：自去年7月以来，私人雇主在10月份首次增加了就业岗位，但与今年早些 时候的报告相比，招聘人数并不多。与此同时，一年多来，薪酬增长基本持平，表明供需变化是平衡的。 美国自动数据处理公司ADP：上个月，美国就业从两个月的疲软状态中反弹，但反弹的范围并不广泛。教育和 医疗保健、贸易、运输和公用事业引领了增长。在专业商业服务、信息、休闲和酒店业，雇主连续第三个月裁 员。10月薪资同比增幅与前月持平，未离职者为4.5%，跳槽者为6.7%。 标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森评美国10月标普全球服务业PMI终值：10月份的PMI数据 进一步表明，美国经济以强劲势头进入第四季度。庞大的服务业增长加速，同时制造业表 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the US non-manufacturing PMI in October, which stood at 52.4, exceeding expectations and previous values, leading to a collective rise in major US stock indices [1] - The US stock market saw the Nasdaq increase by 0.65%, the Dow Jones by 0.48%, and the S&P 500 by 0.37%, indicating a favorable market response to the PMI data [1] - Domestic futures markets showed mixed results, with certain commodities like coking coal and various agricultural products experiencing gains, while others like propylene and asphalt saw declines [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the performance of major stock indices, noting a recovery after a previous decline, with the electric equipment sector leading gains and the computer sector lagging [2] - The financing balance decreased by 3.32 billion yuan to 24.73687 trillion yuan, indicating a potential shift in market liquidity [2] - The article emphasizes the long-term focus on technology self-reliance as part of the 14th Five-Year Plan, suggesting that the technology sector will be a key investment direction [2] Group 3 - The article reports on the shipping market, specifically the European container shipping index, which rose by 3.82% to surpass 1900 points, reflecting positive macroeconomic sentiment [3] - The average price for large containers in early November stabilized around 2200 USD, with expectations for price adjustments based on seasonal demand [3] - The article notes that the glass and soda ash markets are in a phase of inventory digestion, with cautious market sentiment prevailing [3][19] Group 4 - The article highlights the significant growth in China's new energy storage capacity, which has exceeded 100 million kilowatts, representing a more than 30-fold increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [8] - The article mentions that this capacity now accounts for over 40% of the global total, positioning China as a leader in this sector [8]

services PMIs as well with Rick Santel. Hey Rick. >> Hi Carl.Indeed. Rates are moving up, but maybe it's outside of the data I'm about to release. Our October final read on service sector and composite from S&P Global comes in less than expectations and less than the midmon read.54.8% replaces 55.2%. And if you look at the composite, 54.6% replaces 54.8%. But here's the rub.Even though they're less than expected and less than the midmon read, they're still sequentially higher than last month, which is the c ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for treasury bond futures is likely to be volatile with a slight bullish bias [1][2] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals reflected by PMI are favorable for the bond market, and the 1.85% yield of 10 - year treasury bond cash bonds may be the upper limit for some time. Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile with a slight bullish bias in the short term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - On Tuesday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly lower, with minor declines in the morning session and recoveries in the afternoon, showing narrow - range horizontal fluctuations throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.03%, the 10 - year T2512 remained flat, and the 5 - year TF2512 and 2 - year TS2512 both fell 0.01% [1] - On Tuesday, the Wande All - A Index opened slightly lower, fluctuated downward continuously, and slightly rebounded at the end of the session, closing with a negative line. The trading volume was 1.94 trillion yuan, a slight decline from the previous trading day's 2.13 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 475.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan [1] - On Tuesday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.43%, up from 1.42% in the previous trading day [1] - On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds rose by 0.90, 0.27, 0.40, and 0.45 basis points to 1.42%, 1.58%, 1.80%, and 2.14% respectively [1] - PBoC Deputy Governor Lu Lei stated on November 4 that the central bank will adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy support according to the economic and financial situation at home and abroad, implement various monetary policy tools, and release policy effects. This year, the central bank has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy [1] - The central bank's 10 - month liquidity injection data shows that the net injection of treasury bond trading in the open market was 20 billion yuan, indicating the resumption of treasury bond trading operations. The central bank also announced a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase operation on November 5 [1] Market Logic - The PMI in October was 49.0%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the seventh consecutive month, with a larger decline than seasonal factors due to the double - holiday and external factors. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, the construction business activity index was 49.1%, and the service business activity index was 50.2%, showing a mild expansion. The fundamentals reflected by PMI are favorable for the bond market [2] - On October 27, the central bank governor stated that the bond market is operating well, and the resumption of open - market treasury bond trading operations directly boosted the bond market last week. The 1.85% yield of 10 - year treasury bond cash bonds may be the upper limit for some time [2] - With the overnight decline in US stocks and the narrow - range horizontal fluctuation of treasury bond futures on Tuesday, treasury bond futures may be volatile with a slight bullish bias in the short term [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors should conduct band operations [2]