27 December 2025 | 3:49PM HKT Economics Research China: Both industrial profits and revenue edged up sequentially in November; December PMI preview Bottom line: Industrial profits: -13.0% yoy in November (sequential growth: +0.3% non-annualized, seasonally adjusted by GS); October: -8.9% yoy (sequential growth: -8.6% sa non-annualized). Industrial revenue: -0.4% yoy in November (sequential growth: +4.4% non-annualized, seasonally adjusted by GS); October: -4.0% yoy (sequential growth: -5.6% sa non-annualize ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20251228 周观：如何看待 2026年1月的流动性情况？ （2025 年第 50 期） [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 如何看待 2026 年 1 月的流动性情况？本周（2025.12.22-2025.12.26）， 10 年期国债活跃券收益率从上周五的 1.835%上行 0.05bp 至 1.8355%。 周度复盘：周一（12.22），早盘市场对于 LPR 调降有所期待，情绪较好。 随后 12 月 LPR 公布维持不变，下调预期落空后利率有所上行，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率上行 0.85bp。周二（12.23），早盘市场对明年初 政府债发行放量有所顾忌，利率上行。随后年末配置盘力量上行，债市 企稳，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率下行 0.85bp。周三（12.24），早盘 市场维持震荡，临近午间出现降准预期，随后出现预期修正，令利率呈 现"V"型走势。尾盘出现北京住房政策调整、MLF 超量续作 4000 亿 元和央行货政委员会四季度例会通稿发布等新闻，超预期信息有限，全 天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率较前日持 ...

LOW-VOLUME TODAY. IT IS CHRISTMAS, SO POTENTIALLY INDIVIDUALS NOT PAYING ATTENTION TO THEIR SCREEN. JOINING US NOW TO DISCUSS MORE, STEPHANIE ROTH AND MICHAEL BALL.THANK YOU FOR JOINING US IN STUDIO. MERRY CHRISTMAS TO BOTH OF YOU. LET'S GET YOUR REACTION FROM THE CLAIMS NUMBER.STEPHANIE: THE DATA LOOKS SOLID. IT IS TELLING US THE LABOR MARKET IS FAIRLY WELL CONTAINED. LAYOFFS ARE MINIMAL.THERE WAS A BOUNCE BACK IN CONTINUING CLAIMS. IT WAS VOLATILITY AROUND THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. CONTINUING CLAIMS IS ST ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/12/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1806.600 | | -15.7↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1158 | +3.40↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2602-EC2604价差 | 648.60 | | -56.40↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 474.90 | -76.90↓ | | EC合约基差 | | -217.40 | +65.20↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 19 Dec 2025 03:00:00 ET │ 29 pages Global Economics Global Indicators Chartbook (Year-End Edition): The World in Pictures CITI'S TAKE Our global indicators chartbook highlights that the global economy continues to display impressive resilience. The global manufacturing and services PMIs in recent months have posted readings toward the upper part of their ranges of the last few years. Global trade indicators meanwhile continue to shake off the restraining effects of tariffs. Global exports ...

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Baoju Securities Weekly Report - **Report Date**: December 22, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report Core View - Global economic slowdown and inflation trends affect various asset markets, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange. Market participants are closely watching central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical events to assess investment opportunities and risks. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Stock Market - **European Stocks**: Economic slowdown and inflation concerns lead to fluctuations in European major stock indices. The European Central Bank maintains interest rates, and the market awaits PMI data to judge the possibility of a mild recovery in early 2026 [3][4]. - **Chinese Stocks**: Weak domestic demand and real - estate market issues pressure the Chinese market. Beijing may introduce new stimulus measures. Investors are looking for blue - chip stocks with clear profit prospects for portfolio layout [3][4]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rebounds after being affected by the US inflation data. Market liquidity may improve with the expansion of regulations and IPO activities, but returns depend on foreign capital inflows and the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3][4]. - **US Stocks**: The decline in the November CPI data boosts expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. The market focuses on year - end spending and profit expectations, and the AI sector's technical changes increase market volatility [3]. Global Bond Market - **Government Bonds**: The FTSE World Government Bond Index falls 0.04%. Although the decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, the hawkish stances of the Fed and the Bank of England limit gains. Prices remain range - bound due to year - end liquidity tightening and policy uncertainty [5]. - **High - Yield Bonds**: The Bloomberg Global High - Yield Bond Index rises 0.29%. Spreads narrow and economic optimism boost risk appetite. However, emerging - market debt faces challenges due to the strong US dollar, despite China's stimulus measures. High - yield bonds will remain popular in 2026, and emerging - market performance depends on exchange - rate stability and fiscal progress [5]. Commodities - **WTI Crude**: WTI crude oil falls 1.36% to $56.66 per barrel. The progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and global economic growth concerns lead to a second - consecutive - week decline. In 2026, expected production surpluses and stable OPEC+ output may put pressure on oil prices, and the market focuses on year - end inventory data [8]. - **Gold**: Gold prices rise 0.91% to $4338.88 per ounce. The decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, and year - end hedging operations drive up gold prices. Interest - rate cuts and central - bank demand support gold prices moving towards $4400, but the Fed's hawkish remarks may trigger profit - taking [9]. - **Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index**: The index falls 0.16% to 580.08. Weak energy prices offset the rise of gold and soft commodities. The market is weighing 2026 growth expectations, and commodities will remain range - bound. Upcoming PMI data are crucial for assessing metal and energy demand [10]. Foreign Exchange - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index rises 0.20% to 98.60. Weak CPI data boost expectations of 2026 interest - rate cuts, but the Fed's hawkish remarks provide support. The index is expected to fluctuate around the current level, with technical support at 98.00 [11]. - **RMB against the US Dollar**: The RMB falls 0.20% to 7.0411. Weak domestic demand and the real - estate market pressure the RMB, but the optimistic 2026 fiscal expansion outlook limits the decline. The RMB's trend depends on the pace of fiscal stimulus and the overall strength of the US dollar [12]. Main Indices and Economic Data - **Main Indices**: The report provides price and cumulative return data of major global stock indices such as the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, the Shanghai Composite Index, the US Dow Jones Index, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [16]. - **Economic Data**: It includes data on non - farm payrolls, unemployment rates, PMI, CPI, and other economic indicators in the US and Europe, with comparisons between previous values, market expectations, and actual values [17]. Bond/Foreign Exchange Index - **Bond Index**: It shows the price, change percentage, and yield of various government bonds such as US, Chinese, Japanese, German, and British bonds as of December 19, 2025 [18]. - **Foreign Exchange Index**: It provides price and cumulative return data of major currency pairs including the Hong Kong dollar, the US dollar, the euro, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [18].

RT Binance Research (@BinanceResearch)Macro data shows a synchronized slowdown: inflation Consumer, PMI falling, and unemployment rising.Raising the question of whether markets will shift from “bad news is good news” to pricing in recession risk.Find out more ⬇️https://t.co/AsP05IInmM ...

U.S. stocks traded mostly lower this morning, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 250 points on Tuesday.The Dow traded down 0.52% to 48,164.83 while the NASDAQ fell 0.37% to 22,971.25. The S&P 500 also fell, dropping, 0.56% to 6,778.08.Check This Out: Jim Cramer: Sell This Major Energy Stock, Go With This Canadian Mining CompanyLeading and Lagging SectorsCommunication services shares rose by 0.2% on Tuesday.In trading on Tuesday, energy stocks fell by 2.3%.Top HeadlineThe S&P Global flash composite P ...

从结构上看，经济走弱的迹象具有一定广泛性。Williamson表示，庞大的服务业新业务流入几乎陷入停 滞，而制造业则出现了一年来首次工厂订单下降。虽然部分制造企业仍在报告产出增加，但在销售放缓 的背景下，这样的生产节奏被认为难以持续，若需求未能在新一年回暖，企业或被迫削减产量。与此同 时，服务业企业反映，12月销售增长为2023年以来最疲弱的月份之一。 通胀压力同样引发关注。调查显示，企业成本上涨速度升至2022年11月以来最高水平，推动销售价格出 现近三年来最显著的涨幅之一。Williamson指出，关税再次被企业普遍视为价格上涨的重要原因，其最 初对制造业的影响正逐步向服务业蔓延，从而加剧整体的"可负担性"问题。 在金融市场层面，疲软的PMI数据公布后，美元指数承压回落，日内一度下跌约0.3%，报97.96。避险 情绪升温推动金价走强，现货黄金升至每盎司4330美元上方，刷新当日高点，显示投资者对美国经济前 景与通胀走势的关注正在升温。 智通财经APP获悉，美国最新公布的标普全球PMI初值显示，12月美国私营部门经济活动仍处于扩张区 间，但扩张动能明显放缓，多项指标降至数月低点，释放出经济增长趋弱的信号。 ...

Let's get to Rick Santelli. Hey Rick. >> Hi Carl.Indeed. These are December preliminary S&P global PMIs. On the manufacturing front coming in light at 51.8%.Also sequentially lower than last month's final 52.2%. That would be the lowest read since this summer July. If we look at the services 52.9%.We're expecting 54 in the rearview mirror. 54.1%. 52.9% equals where we were in June.To find a lower number, you're going back to April of this year. And finally, on the composite, 53.9% expected. 53 is what arriv ...