铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2026-3-27 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

change. So, a lot to take in this morning, but as I mentioned, a lot calmer, but no doubt the optimism somewhat fading this morning. So, let's get out to Kevin Green, who joins me now, senior markets correspondent, just to help us get through some of these PMI numbers.Uh, KG, we don't often give a lot of credence to these numbers, but it's just so important in getting our first macro look at just how businesses are feeling because, of course, PMIs are sentimentbased surveys. talk us through what we've got h ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the released February inflation data (CPI同比 1.3%, PPI同比 -0.9%) slightly exceeded market expectations. The February import - export growth rate was remarkable, and the US stated that the Iran conflict would end soon, making the Middle - East situation uncertain. The bond market declined again, and ultra - long bonds tumbled. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, with the term spread widening and the variety spread narrowing [1][4][10]. - For the 30 - year Treasury bond, as of March 13, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 47BP, at a historically low level. Considering domestic economic data, the economic downward pressure in December eased, with the estimated December GDP year - on - year growth rate at about 4.5%, a 0.4% increase from November. The manufacturing PMI in January and February dropped to 49.3 and 49 respectively, indicating a weak start to the year. The deflation risk continued to ease. The report believes that the bond market is more likely to correct in the near future due to factors such as rising domestic inflation risk and reduced central bank bond - buying scale. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2][11]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of March 13, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year Treasury bond was 13BP, at a historically low position. Similar to the 30 - year Treasury bond situation, the bond market is more likely to correct in the near future. However, considering the bond market is still in a large oscillation range, the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [3][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The February inflation data (CPI同比 1.3%, PPI同比 -0.9%) slightly exceeded market expectations. The February import - export growth rate was very good, and the US's statement on the Iran conflict made the Middle - East situation uncertain. The bond market declined, and ultra - long bonds tumbled. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, with the term spread widening and the variety spread narrowing [1][4][10]. 3.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of March 13, the 30 - 10 spread was 47BP, at a historically low level. December economic downward pressure eased, with GDP growth rate estimated at 4.5% year - on - year, a 0.4% increase from November. January and February manufacturing PMI dropped, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is more likely to correct due to rising inflation risk and reduced central bank bond - buying. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [2][11]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of March 13, the 20 - year CDB - Treasury spread was 13BP, at a historically low position. Similar economic situation as the 30 - year Treasury bond. The bond market is more likely to correct, but the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [3][12]. 3.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 25.3 trillion. As of February 28, ultra - long bonds with a remaining term over 14 years totaled 1,655,081 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.3% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main sub - varieties. By variety, Treasury bonds accounted for 27.5%, local government bonds 67.3%, etc. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [13]. 3.4 Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (2026.3.9 - 2026.3.15), the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds decreased, totaling 474 billion yuan. Compared with the week before last, the total issuance volume dropped significantly. By variety, Treasury bonds issued 320 billion, local government bonds 154 billion, etc. By term, 15 - year bonds issued 30 billion, 20 - year 16 billion, 30 - year 107 billion, and 50 - year 320 billion [18]. - **This Week's Scheduled Issuance**: The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 1,442 billion. Ultra - long local government bonds account for 1,436 billion, and ultra - long medium - term notes 6 billion [24]. 3.5 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a trading volume of 11,303 billion, accounting for 11.7% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, ultra - long Treasury bonds accounted for 38.9% of the total Treasury bond trading volume, ultra - long local bonds 45.0% of the total local bond trading volume, etc. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume of ultra - long bonds increased by 532 billion, and the proportion increased by 1.3% [27]. - **Yield**: Due to factors such as inflation data and international situation, the bond market declined, and ultra - long bonds tumbled. For Treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 5BP, 6BP, 9BP, and 9BP respectively to 2.16%, 2.31%, 2.37%, and 2.55%. Similar changes occurred in CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds [39]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark Treasury bonds remained at 47BP, a 2BP change from the week before last, at the 44% quantile since 2010 [46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, with an absolute low level. The spreads of 20 - year CDB bonds and railway bonds against Treasury bonds were 13BP and 15BP respectively, a - 1BP change from the week before last, at the 11% and 10% quantiles since 2010 [47]. 3.6 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2606 closed at 111.06 yuan, with an increase of - 1.53%. The total trading volume was 47.12 million lots (114,506 lots), and the open interest was 13.07 million lots (- 2,023 lots). The trading volume increased significantly compared with the week before last, and the open interest decreased slightly [54].

8 March 2026 | 9:55PM HKT Economics Research China: Three things in China Three quick highlights from China: n "Two Sessions" in line: The main messages from the "Two Sessions" largely met expectations. The real GDP growth target was lowered to "4.5–5%" from "around 5%" last year. The total amount of government bond issuance quoted was RMB 11.9 trillion, unchanged from 2025. There were some interesting points from the budget proposal and press conference: China's diplomatic budget will increase by 9% this y ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for February decreased to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, influenced by the Spring Festival holiday and related factors [2][3][11]. Group 1: Factory Prices Continue to Improve - The manufacturing PMI factory price index rose to 50.6%, remaining above the threshold for two consecutive months, indicating price increases for several goods [3][7]. - The BCI survey showed that the enterprise sales forward-looking index reached 69.12%, up from 64.71%, suggesting improved sales prospects [4][7]. - The rise in factory prices is expected to enhance corporate sales, with the BCI enterprise profit forward-looking index at 51.16%, indicating profitability above the threshold for two months [4][7]. Group 2: Data on Manufacturing PMI Decline - The manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 49.0%, down from 49.3% in January, with specific indices showing declines in production, new orders, and export orders [11][12]. - The new export orders index fell to 45.0%, down from 47.8%, indicating a slowdown in export activity [11][13]. - The construction sector's business activity index dropped to 48.2%, reflecting the impact of the Spring Festival on construction projects [11][13]. Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The main raw material purchasing price index was at 54.8%, remaining above the threshold for eight consecutive months, indicating sustained price pressures [12]. - The procurement index for February was 48.2%, down from 48.7%, suggesting a potential decline in inventory levels [12]. - The production index for comprehensive PMI output was 49.5%, indicating a slowdown in overall production activities compared to the previous month [14].

报告摘要 事件：2026年3月4日，国家统计局公布2月份中国制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数、综合PMI产出指数。 中国2月官方制造业PMI49.0，前值49.3，非制造业PMI49.5，前值49.4。 宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2026/3/6 春节错月影响，制造业PMI季节性回落 ——2月PMI数据点评 | 证券分析师： | 徐超 | | --- | --- | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190521050001 | | 证券分析师： | 戴梓涵 | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190524110003 | 一、春节错月影响，制造业PMI季节性回落 2月制造业PMI指数为49.0%，较上月下降0.3个百分点，延续上月下降态势，表现不及市场预期。这一下降主要是受 到春节假期错月等季节性因素影响，可以看到过去几年春节同在2月的年份（2018/2021/2024年），当年2月PMI环比 均有小幅下行。本月生产及需求指数较前值均出现不同程度的下降，2月PMI生产指数较上月下降1个百分点至49.6%， 新订单指数为48.6%，较上月下降0.6个百分点，继续位于收缩区间，新出口订单指数为45.0% ...

宏观月度报告 中国 PMI 观察报告 2026 年 3 月 6 日 需求淡季下的亮眼内需 — 02 月中国 PMI 观察 研究员：王鹏 期货从业证号：F03127257 投资咨询资格编号：Z0020170 第一部分 中国制造业和非制造业 PMI 数据表格回顾】 | | | | | | | | | | 中国制造业PMI及分项 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标名称 | 制造业PMI | 生产 | | 新订单 | | 新出口订单 | 在手订单 | 产成品库存 | 采购量 进口 | | 出厂价格 | 主要原材料购进价格 | 原材料库存 | 从业人员 | 供货商配送时间生产经营活动预期 | | | 2026-02 | | 4 9 | 49.6 | | 48.6 | 4 5 | 4 4 | 45.8 | 48.2 | 45.6 | 50.6 | 54.8 | 47.5 | 4 8 | 49.1 | 53.2 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Policies - The traditional method of evaluating PMI is based on whether it exceeds 50%, indicating economic expansion or contraction compared to the previous month. Investors may also focus on the change from the previous period for sensitivity to new data [5] - Since Q4 2025, positive factors have accumulated to drive price recovery, with December CPI showing a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, up 1.2 percentage points from August. The expectation of a 2% increase in consumer prices is deemed achievable through coordinated policy measures [5] Group 2: Government Work Report Insights - The 2026 Government Work Report emphasizes the cultivation of emerging industries and the development of a green low-carbon economy, with a target to reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP by approximately 3.8% in 2026 [5] - The automotive industry policies continue to focus on consumption stimulation and industrial upgrading, with expectations that the "trade-in" policy will persist and high-level intelligent driving may reach a commercialization turning point [7] - In the food and beverage sector, the report suggests investment opportunities in the liquor sector due to improved wealth effects from stable real estate prices and a focus on frozen food products under inflationary conditions [7] - The healthcare sector is highlighted for its focus on emerging industries such as biomedicine and brain-computer interfaces, with initiatives to enhance healthcare services and insurance coverage for long-term care [7] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Haidilao's operational data during the 2026 Spring Festival exceeded expectations, demonstrating its resilience and market leadership. The management changes have led to efficiency improvements and growth potential from new product categories, reinforcing both short-term performance and long-term strategies [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evaluation of the manufacturing PMI during the "Spring Festival month," highlighting the impact of the holiday on manufacturing activity and suggesting methods to mitigate these effects through averaging data from January and February [4][5]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to the Spring Festival holiday [4]. - The average manufacturing PMI for January and February 2026 was 49.15%, which is an increase of 0.15 percentage points compared to February alone [4]. - Traditional methods of evaluating PMI suggest that a value above 50% indicates economic expansion, while below 50% indicates contraction; however, recent trends show that PMI has often remained below 50%, limiting the effectiveness of this approach [4][5]. Group 2: Comparative Analysis - The average manufacturing PMI for January and February 2026 (49.15%) is lower than the December 2025 value of 50.10% [5]. - Historical comparisons show that the 1/4 percentile for manufacturing PMI from September 2024 to December 2025 was 49.38%, indicating that the current average is slightly below this threshold [5][6]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index averaged 49.45% in January and February 2026, which is also below the historical 1/4 percentile of 50.08% for the same period [6]. Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index, which reflects changes in output across both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, had an average of 49.65% in 2026, below the historical 1/4 percentile of 50.35% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI has marginally declined due to seasonal disruptions from the longest Spring Festival holiday in history, with input inflation being a key concern moving forward [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI stood at 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a lower-than-average performance for this time of year due to the holiday disruption [2]. - The production index was notably affected, particularly impacting small and medium-sized enterprises, while high-tech manufacturing remains in the expansion zone [2]. - The consumer goods sector's PMI increased to 48.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month, driven by consumption policies [2]. Supply and Demand Index - The supply and demand index experienced a seasonal decline, with new export orders showing a significant drop, although domestic demand remains relatively stable when seasonal factors are excluded [3]. - Industries such as agricultural processing and computer communication equipment are expanding, while textiles and automotive sectors remain below the critical point [3]. - The purchasing price index for raw materials has slightly decreased, while factory prices remain stable, potentially improving revenue expectations for businesses [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector showed stable performance with a slight increase in the business activity index, although there is significant structural differentiation [3]. - Industries related to consumer travel, such as accommodation and dining, are experiencing rapid growth, while capital market services and real estate are operating at low levels [3]. - The construction sector's business activity index has marginally declined due to the holiday, with some projects temporarily halted [3]. Future Outlook - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be more proactive, with a focus on supporting overall demand [4]. - The Central Political Bureau has indicated a commitment to more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with potential for further interest rate cuts [4]. - There will be an emphasis on boosting consumption and expanding investment, including infrastructure projects like parking lots and charging stations [4].