A huge amount of oil will be looking for new buyers if Trump's new sanctions force India to stop purchasing Russian crude, writes @JLeeEnergy https://t.co/c3vkTT7ujV ...

Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitics is considered the single biggest risk for investors currently [3] - Key geopolitical issues include the war in Ukraine, the US-China tariff conflict, and the potential for China to take over Taiwan [3] - The US's strained relationships with traditional allies could impact the US dollar's reserve currency status [4] War in Ukraine - The war in Ukraine is unlikely to end soon because Vladimir Putin benefits from it as a means to maintain power by creating a foreign enemy [5][6] - Political solutions and offers may be ineffective because Putin's primary concern is staying in power [7] - The war is expected to continue for an extended period [8] Energy Market Leverage - Ending the war requires both weapons for Ukraine to strike Russian targets and addressing Russia's crude oil sales [10] - Since the war began, Russia has sold $400 billion of crude oil to China, India, and Turkey [10] - Targeting the eight refineries (two in China, four in India, two in Turkey) that purchase Russian oil could significantly impact Russia's revenue [10] - An ultimatum to these refineries to choose between doing business with the West or Russia could force them to buy from the West [11] - This could lead to Russian oil selling at $20 per barrel instead of $60, potentially forcing Putin to seek a ceasefire [12]

Supply and Demand - Indian refiners plan to continue purchasing Russian crude oil [1] - Domestic fuel demand in India is increasing following the monsoon season [1] Geopolitics and Trade - India and the United States are resuming trade negotiations [1] - Both India and the United States are pushing for a trade deal [1]

Geopolitical Risk - Ukraine attacked the Saratov crude-oil refinery in Russia's Volga region [1] - Western nations seek to push Putin to the negotiating table [1] Energy Sector Impact - The attack targeted a crude-oil refinery [1]

Industry Impact - A major California oil pipeline may shut down [1] - Some refiners may be forced to import more crude oil [1]

Supply & Shipment - Russia's crude shipments increased to a three-month high [1] - The increase was driven by larger volumes from Novorossiysk [1] Refining & Disruption - Intensifying drone attacks are causing widespread disruption to refining activities [1]

Market Trends & Analysis - Yields are rangebound, indicating a neutral stance from an intermediate and long-term perspective [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield has support around 42% and resistance around 44% [3] - A breakout from the yield range would suggest higher yields, while a breakdown could lead to secondary support around 40% [4] - Small caps, represented by the Russell 2000, show strong upside momentum in both the intermediate and short term [6] - The Russell 2000 exhibits a cup and handle formation, suggesting a potential lift to new highs [6] - Consolidation is expected for small caps, aligning with seasonal influences and overbought conditions [7] - Large cap indices are losing upside momentum, potentially impacting the Russell 2000 [8] - The VIX is above its 50-day moving average, indicating expanding volatility inversely correlated to the S&P 500 [9] Crude Oil Analysis - Crude oil prices are still in a secular downtrend, requiring a substantial upside move to reverse [9] - There are indications on the monthly chart of WTI suggesting a major low in March/April, based on long-term oversold readings [10] Energy Sector - The energy sector shows signs of life, with some MLPs lifting out of prolonged consolidation phases [11] - Phillips 66 (PSX) shows a potential inverse head and shoulders formation, indicating constructive technical action despite long-term downside momentum [11]

Crude Oil Market Dynamics - Indian refiners are increasing purchases of US crude oil [1] - This increase is a response to Washington's crackdown on India for buying Russian oil [1]

Supply Chain Disruption - Russian crude oil shipments to Hungary may resume after almost a week of halt [1] - The halt was due to Ukraine's attack on Druzhba pipeline network [1]

Trade & Tariffs Impact - US tariffs on Indian goods appear to be impacting Russian crude oil flows to India [1] - Russian crude oil flows to India have decreased by almost 20% since June [1]