Core Insights - A significant decline in demand for cardboard packaging is raising concerns about the overall economic health in the United States, as it serves as a key indicator of consumer activity and industrial performance [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicator - Corrugated cardboard is referred to as the "cardboard box index" by economists, as it reflects the state of trade, manufacturing, and retail [2]. - Recent data indicates that shipments of corrugated boxes in the US have reached their lowest levels in years, which is alarming since consumer spending constitutes about two-thirds of the American economy [3]. Group 2: Causes of Demand Slump - The decline in cardboard demand is attributed to several factors, including: - Post-pandemic adjustments where online shopping surged during lockdowns, leading to a normalization of packaging orders at lower levels as consumers shift spending from goods to services [4]. - Trade pressures and rising costs of raw materials like wood pulp due to tariffs and changing trade policies, which are squeezing box manufacturers' margins [4]. - Retailers and e-commerce companies are adopting lighter mailers and reusable packaging, reducing the need for traditional corrugated boxes [4]. - A slowdown in key industries such as construction and automotive, which are major consumers of packaging, resulting in fewer shipping orders [4]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The drop in cardboard demand is seen as an early sign of a potential recession, as reduced packaging often precedes declines in GDP and employment [4]. - Job losses are anticipated in sectors like paper mills, packaging plants, and timber suppliers, with several pulp mills in North America already closing or reducing capacity [4]. - Lower packaging orders may lead to corporate caution, with firms delaying production and investment, which could negatively impact financial markets and economic confidence [4].

Core Insights - The stock market is reaching record highs, indicating a potential disconnect from the underlying economic slowdown [1] - There is speculation that the market may be responding to factors not reflected in the current economic data [1] Market Performance - The stock market's performance suggests resilience despite signs of economic weakness [1] - Record highs may imply investor confidence or a misinterpretation of economic indicators [1]

Labor Market Trends & Disparities - US economy faced rising prices and a slowdown in hiring, partly due to tariffs [1] - Black Americans experienced a faster increase in unemployment, reaching 75% [2] - Black women's joblessness saw the sharpest spike, with 36000 jobs lost since February [3][4] - The unemployment rate for black women jumped from 54% in January to 67% [26][27] Impact of Policy & Budget Cuts - Massive cuts to the federal workforce are seen as a driving factor behind job losses for black women [4] - Agencies with a larger share of black women employees, like the Department of Education (28% black women), faced significant staff cuts (nearly 46%) [6] - Agencies with largely white staff saw smaller cuts [7] - Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) officers, where black women are heavily represented, are being pushed out due to political pressure [7][8] Economic Consequences & Broader Implications - Job losses among black women are projected to strip around $37 billion from the US economy [4] - A sharp jump in black women's joblessness may foreshadow an impending slowdown for other groups [9] - The loss of jobs for 319000 black women from February to July is largely due to federal purges [15] - The economy suffers when parts of it experience wage, income, and employment decline [24]

Group 1 - Robinhood Markets Inc shares are experiencing a decline due to a broader sell-off in banking and financial services stocks, triggered by a weak August jobs report [1][3] - The U.S. economy added only 22,000 nonfarm payrolls in August, significantly below expectations and marking the slowest hiring pace since 2020, with downward revisions for June and July indicating a cooling labor market [2][3] - The poor jobs data has led to increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, but concerns about a slowing economy potentially reducing trading activity are negatively impacting sentiment for brokerage platforms like Robinhood [3] Group 2 - Despite the decline in share price, Robinhood has a high momentum score of 98.61 according to Benzinga Edge rankings [4] - As of Friday afternoon, Robinhood shares are trading down 2.07% to $100.78, with a 52-week high of $117.70 and a low of $18.71 [4]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy faced significant volatility with mixed signals, as major indexes like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones increased by 0.28% and 1.60%, while the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.62% [1] - The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the possibility of an interest rate cut as early as September during the Jackson Hole symposium [1] Labor Market Concerns - A slowing labor market is a primary concern for the Federal Reserve, with recent data showing a downward revision of job growth in May and June, and only 73,000 jobs added in July [2] - Despite strong Q2 GDP numbers, labor market and manufacturing data indicate a potential economic slowdown, presenting a dilemma for the Fed between supporting the job market and combating inflation [2] Zacks Research Performance - WisdomTree, Inc. shares increased by 28% since being upgraded to Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) on June 23, outperforming the S&P 500's 8.7% gain [4] - Hafnia Limited shares rose by 14.1% after a Zacks Rank 2 upgrade on June 25, also surpassing the S&P 500's 6.4% increase [5] - A hypothetical portfolio of Zacks Rank 1 stocks returned +20.65% in 2023, compared to +24.83% for the S&P 500 index [6] Focus List and Model Portfolios - The Zacks Focus List portfolio returned +10.91% in 2025 (through July 31) compared to +8.59% for the S&P 500 index [12] - The Top 10 portfolio has delivered a cumulative return of +2,220.4% since 2012, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's +517.8% return [24] Sector-Specific Performance - Johnson & Johnson and The Hershey Company, part of the Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio, returned 17.2% and 16.8% respectively over the past 12 weeks, driven by investor interest in quality dividend stocks amid market volatility [19] - Mettler-Toledo International Inc. and PepsiCo, part of the Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio, saw returns of 18.6% and 15.7% over the past 12 weeks [15]

FX Market Drivers - The FX market in the first half of the year was driven by perceived capital flows [1] - The market is uncertain but aware of the significant investment in US equities and treasuries, making returns vulnerable if the economy slows [2] - The market is confused about the short-term rate story, focusing on whether the US economy is slowing slightly or facing a more significant slowdown [2] US Dollar and Economic Data - The market is overreacting to macroeconomic data, anticipating overreactions to data releases in September [3] - The "sell dollar, sell the United States" trade has plateaued, shifting towards a landscape of nuanced reactions to each data point [4] - The data will determine if the US economy is slowing significantly [4] Currency Movements and Economic Impact - Rapid currency movements, like the Euro-Dollar increase from 102 to 118, trigger reactions from inflation-targeting central banks and the economy [5] - The future Euro-Dollar rate, potentially reaching 125 or remaining at current levels, depends on the extent of the US economic slowdown in the next three months [6] - A repeat of soft payroll numbers could lead to a further 5-10% dollar weakness [6][7] - A gentle easing in US growth may not justify significant dollar weakness if the inflation impact from tariffs is limited [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2026, the company reported adjusted net investment income (NII) of $0.24 per share, down from $0.26 per share in the prior quarter [6][15] - Total investment income decreased to $23.5 million from $27.5 million in the previous quarter, primarily due to the absence of a one-time success fee and dividend income [13] - Net investment income for the quarter was $9.1 million compared to $7.2 million in the prior quarter [15] - The net asset value (NAV) decreased to $12.99 per share from $13.55 per share, influenced by distributions to shareholders and unrealized depreciation [16][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company invested approximately $130 million in three new portfolio companies during the first quarter, compared to $221 million for the entire fiscal year 2025 [7] - The portfolio currently consists of 28 operating businesses, with a total investment of about $2.1 billion across 64 buyout portfolio companies since inception [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a competitive environment in the M&A market, with liquidity present but valuations remaining challenging [10] - Some consumer-focused portfolio companies have shown good results, although there are concerns regarding supply chain disruptions and tariff impacts on margins [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow its portfolio through acquisitions at attractive valuations, utilizing a combination of equity and debt investments [7] - The strategy includes generating capital gains and maintaining monthly distributions to shareholders, with a focus on liquidity and flexibility to support portfolio growth [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about new buyout activity for the remainder of the fiscal year, despite uncertainties in the economic landscape [10] - The company is cautious about potential impacts from tariffs and supply chain issues but remains confident in the overall health of its portfolio [11] Other Important Information - The company maintained a monthly distribution of $0.08 per share, with a supplemental distribution of $0.54 per share paid in June [8][18] - The asset coverage ratio stood at 189%, providing a cushion above the required 150% coverage ratio [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is the recent acquisition pace indicative of better deal flow? - Management indicated that while the M&A market is competitive, they are seeing good quality deal flow and are actively pursuing acquisitions [23][24] Question: Are there signs of weakening performance across portfolio companies? - Management noted that while there is caution, overall activity levels remain stable, with some consumer companies even experiencing increased activity despite tariff impacts [26][27] Question: What is the current level of undistributed taxable income (UTI)? - Management confirmed comfort with the current UTI level and continues to monitor it on a quarterly basis [28][29] Question: Can you provide insights on Diligent Delivery Systems? - Management stated they are continuing to manage the investment and are working on restructuring, with no immediate dramatic changes planned [34][35] Question: What drove the increase in yield on interest-bearing investments? - The yield increase was primarily due to the collection of past due interest, with the underlying yield remaining consistent with previous quarters [40][41] Question: Are there changes in deal structures among competitors? - Management indicated that while competition exists, their unique strategy allows them to maintain strong underwriting standards without significant changes in structure [44][45]

Political & Economic Analysis - The new bill is perceived as a reverse Robin Hood budget, transferring wealth from the poor to the rich [1][2] - Soft stagflation is anticipated, with rising inflation and a potentially softening labor market due to an economic slowdown [4] - Public opinion, even according to Fox News polls, is largely against the bill by 20 points, even before its effects are felt [7] - Democrats have an opportunity to capitalize on the bill's unpopularity and the Republican party's perceived lack of fiscal responsibility [8][10] - Economic populism is suggested as a counter-narrative to cultural populism, using the bill as an example [10] Midterm Elections & Political Strategy - The White House acknowledges potential blowback in the midterm elections, historically challenging for a president's first term [12][13] - The administration aims to fulfill campaign promises, including tax cuts, despite midterm election concerns [11][12] - Democrats are considering making JD Vance the face of the bill, particularly looking ahead to the 2028 presidential election, though focusing on Donald Trump and the Republican party as a whole may be more effective in the midterms [14][15][16] - The Republican party may struggle to credibly advocate for fiscal responsibility after Donald Trump's first term, during which the debt increased [8] - A past attempt to privatize social security under George Bush is cited as a cautionary tale of pursuing unpopular policies [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - Caterpillar reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter results and lowered its full-year guidance, but the market had anticipated this, limiting the downside post-announcement [1][5] Financial Performance - The company earned $4.25 per share on revenue of $14.25 billion, missing Wall Street's consensus estimates of $4.35 per share and $14.6 billion in sales [3] - Sales declined by 10% year-over-year, with construction equipment sales down 19% from the previous year [3][4] - Caterpillar warned that margins could be at the lower end of the previous 16% to 20% range for 2025 due to rising costs [3] Market Conditions - The decline in sales was attributed to weaker dealer restocking trends and pricing pressures [4] - Economic uncertainty is expected to hinder the recovery of Caterpillar's business and stock performance in the near term [7] Company Resilience - Despite the challenges, Caterpillar's scale and strong balance sheet provide a cushion, with the company generating $1.3 billion in operating cash flow during the quarter [6] - The company returned $4.3 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, indicating a commitment to returning value to investors [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported NAREIT FFO of $0.56 per share in Q1 2025, driven by same property NOI growth of 2.8% despite a 160 basis point drag from tenant disruption [15][16] - The debt to EBITDA ratio was reduced to 5.5 times, with $1.4 billion in available liquidity and no remaining debt maturities until June 2026 [10][17] - The signed but not yet commenced pool totaled $60 million, which includes $52 million of net new rent [16][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company executed 1.3 million square feet of new and renewal leases at a blended cash spread of 21%, with new leases at 48% and renewals at 14% [12] - The occupancy rate declined to 94.1% due to the recapture of space from bankrupt tenants, but the company expects to address this with better tenants at higher rents [12][13] - The reinvestment pipeline reached $391 million with a weighted average return of 10%, and the company stabilized $28 million of reinvestment projects during the quarter [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company continues to capture a significant share of new store openings in core categories such as grocery and specialty grocery, with strong tenant demand [8][9] - The traffic in the company's centers showed year-over-year growth, reflecting the positive impact of reinvestment and tenant performance [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capitalizing on tenant disruption to bring in better tenants at higher rents, which is part of its all-weather value-added plan [6][7] - The management expressed confidence in the ability to outperform in 2025 and 2026, supported by a robust leasing pipeline and low rent basis [9][10] - The company is well-positioned to navigate potential disruptions and capitalize on growth opportunities in the current volatile market [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the looming tariff uncertainty and potential economic slowdown but emphasized strong tenant demand and the ability to generate robust leasing activity [6][9] - The management remains optimistic about the growth visibility provided by the signed but not commenced pipeline and the ongoing leasing efforts [17][18] - The company expects base rent to accelerate in the second half of the year as new leases commence [17] Other Important Information - The company has maintained a conservative approach to guidance, allowing for additional tenant disruption while still expecting to meet its financial targets [19][20] - The management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong credit profile and the resilience of its tenant base in the face of economic challenges [86][87] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the exposure to Big Lots or Party City at quarter end? - The company experienced a 140 basis point impact from bankruptcies, primarily from Big Lots and Party City spaces [21][22] Question: What is the outlook for same store growth and potential risks? - Management expressed confidence in achieving growth targets, with a strong pipeline and tenant demand, while acknowledging potential risks from economic conditions [26][28] Question: How has leasing activity trended post tariff announcements? - Management noted that leasing discussions remain strong, with tenants focused on growth despite tariff concerns [31][33] Question: What are the expectations for occupancy and leasing activity related to Joann's? - The company expects to recapture Joann's spaces in May, with strong leasing activity anticipated [95][96] Question: How is the transaction market responding to current volatility? - The market has slowed slightly, but there remains strong demand for open-air retail, and the company is positioned to capitalize on opportunities [42][44]