Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have decreased due to concerns over a global oversupply, exacerbated by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions which raise fears of an economic slowdown and reduced energy demand [1] Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices dipped on Monday, indicating a response to market pressures [1] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to worries about a global glut in supply [1] - Escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China are contributing to concerns about economic performance [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The trade tensions are adding to fears of an economic slowdown [1] - Weaker energy demand is a significant concern linked to the current economic climate [1]

10-year bond yield is below 4% right now. And we just heard two words, Rick. I'm not sure I would thought we would have ever heard together.Government surplus. Yeah. No.And it's all interesting. I'll try to put it together in a chronological timeline. That'll give you some clues.First of all, that data came out at the top of the two. Okay. 2:00 Eastern, 198 billion surplus.However, on a full fiscal year, we're going to be spending 1.2% trillion on servicing the debt. Even though it's under a trillion now, t ...

Core Insights - The construction index (ITB) is showing signs of weakness, potentially indicating broader economic issues rather than just a temporary retracement [1] - Copper and crude oil are highlighted as critical indicators of economic activity, with falling prices suggesting slowing demand and potential recession [2][3] Economic Indicators - Copper, known as "Dr. Copper," is a key barometer for industrial demand, with price declines often signaling reduced economic activity [2] - Crude oil prices serve as an indicator of global energy consumption, where significant drops can reflect weakening demand or recession fears [3] Construction Sector Analysis - The housing sector, represented by the ITB, is typically one of the first to slow down in response to rising interest rates or declining consumer sentiment [3] - Weakness in both copper and crude oil prices aligns with historical patterns of early economic slowdowns [4] Recommendations for Traders and Investors - Investors are advised to monitor the ITB Construction ETF and copper futures as early warning signals for economic trends [5] - Technical analysis and seasonal returns should be checked for indications of contracting demand in these sectors [6]

Market Performance - Financial markets reached new all-time highs despite the Federal Government shutdown, with the S&P 500, DJIA, and Russell 2000 closing at record highs on October 3rd, and the Nasdaq achieving a record high on October 2nd [1] - Weekly gains for the four major indexes ranged between 1% and 2%, with year-to-date advances showing double-digit growth for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000, while the DJIA is close at 9.91% [1] Economic Indicators - The current government shutdown has occurred amidst signs of an economic slowdown, with rising delinquencies in credit card, auto loans, and mortgages [6][11] - The Pending Home Sales index dropped to 74.7 in September, lower than the first month of both the 2001 and 2008 recessions [7] - The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators have declined for 17 consecutive months, indicating a weakening labor market [8] Labor Market Trends - The ADP monthly jobs report showed a net loss of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly missing the market consensus of a gain of 51,000 jobs [7] - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey indicates a continued decline in job openings, approaching levels seen during the 2020-2021 labor market softness [7] - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.2 in September from 97.8 in August, indicating a significant drop in consumer sentiment [8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [9] - A 25-basis point rate reduction is anticipated in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meetings, with the possibility of a steeper reduction if economic conditions worsen [9][12] - The Fed is expected to respond to the deteriorating economic indicators by lowering interest rates over the next few months [12]

Core Insights - A significant decline in demand for cardboard packaging is raising concerns about the overall economic health in the United States, as it serves as a key indicator of consumer activity and industrial performance [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicator - Corrugated cardboard is referred to as the "cardboard box index" by economists, as it reflects the state of trade, manufacturing, and retail [2]. - Recent data indicates that shipments of corrugated boxes in the US have reached their lowest levels in years, which is alarming since consumer spending constitutes about two-thirds of the American economy [3]. Group 2: Causes of Demand Slump - The decline in cardboard demand is attributed to several factors, including: - Post-pandemic adjustments where online shopping surged during lockdowns, leading to a normalization of packaging orders at lower levels as consumers shift spending from goods to services [4]. - Trade pressures and rising costs of raw materials like wood pulp due to tariffs and changing trade policies, which are squeezing box manufacturers' margins [4]. - Retailers and e-commerce companies are adopting lighter mailers and reusable packaging, reducing the need for traditional corrugated boxes [4]. - A slowdown in key industries such as construction and automotive, which are major consumers of packaging, resulting in fewer shipping orders [4]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The drop in cardboard demand is seen as an early sign of a potential recession, as reduced packaging often precedes declines in GDP and employment [4]. - Job losses are anticipated in sectors like paper mills, packaging plants, and timber suppliers, with several pulp mills in North America already closing or reducing capacity [4]. - Lower packaging orders may lead to corporate caution, with firms delaying production and investment, which could negatively impact financial markets and economic confidence [4].

Core Insights - The stock market is reaching record highs, indicating a potential disconnect from the underlying economic slowdown [1] - There is speculation that the market may be responding to factors not reflected in the current economic data [1] Market Performance - The stock market's performance suggests resilience despite signs of economic weakness [1] - Record highs may imply investor confidence or a misinterpretation of economic indicators [1]

Labor Market Trends & Disparities - US economy faced rising prices and a slowdown in hiring, partly due to tariffs [1] - Black Americans experienced a faster increase in unemployment, reaching 75% [2] - Black women's joblessness saw the sharpest spike, with 36000 jobs lost since February [3][4] - The unemployment rate for black women jumped from 54% in January to 67% [26][27] Impact of Policy & Budget Cuts - Massive cuts to the federal workforce are seen as a driving factor behind job losses for black women [4] - Agencies with a larger share of black women employees, like the Department of Education (28% black women), faced significant staff cuts (nearly 46%) [6] - Agencies with largely white staff saw smaller cuts [7] - Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) officers, where black women are heavily represented, are being pushed out due to political pressure [7][8] Economic Consequences & Broader Implications - Job losses among black women are projected to strip around $37 billion from the US economy [4] - A sharp jump in black women's joblessness may foreshadow an impending slowdown for other groups [9] - The loss of jobs for 319000 black women from February to July is largely due to federal purges [15] - The economy suffers when parts of it experience wage, income, and employment decline [24]

Group 1 - Robinhood Markets Inc shares are experiencing a decline due to a broader sell-off in banking and financial services stocks, triggered by a weak August jobs report [1][3] - The U.S. economy added only 22,000 nonfarm payrolls in August, significantly below expectations and marking the slowest hiring pace since 2020, with downward revisions for June and July indicating a cooling labor market [2][3] - The poor jobs data has led to increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, but concerns about a slowing economy potentially reducing trading activity are negatively impacting sentiment for brokerage platforms like Robinhood [3] Group 2 - Despite the decline in share price, Robinhood has a high momentum score of 98.61 according to Benzinga Edge rankings [4] - As of Friday afternoon, Robinhood shares are trading down 2.07% to $100.78, with a 52-week high of $117.70 and a low of $18.71 [4]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy faced significant volatility with mixed signals, as major indexes like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones increased by 0.28% and 1.60%, while the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.62% [1] - The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the possibility of an interest rate cut as early as September during the Jackson Hole symposium [1] Labor Market Concerns - A slowing labor market is a primary concern for the Federal Reserve, with recent data showing a downward revision of job growth in May and June, and only 73,000 jobs added in July [2] - Despite strong Q2 GDP numbers, labor market and manufacturing data indicate a potential economic slowdown, presenting a dilemma for the Fed between supporting the job market and combating inflation [2] Zacks Research Performance - WisdomTree, Inc. shares increased by 28% since being upgraded to Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) on June 23, outperforming the S&P 500's 8.7% gain [4] - Hafnia Limited shares rose by 14.1% after a Zacks Rank 2 upgrade on June 25, also surpassing the S&P 500's 6.4% increase [5] - A hypothetical portfolio of Zacks Rank 1 stocks returned +20.65% in 2023, compared to +24.83% for the S&P 500 index [6] Focus List and Model Portfolios - The Zacks Focus List portfolio returned +10.91% in 2025 (through July 31) compared to +8.59% for the S&P 500 index [12] - The Top 10 portfolio has delivered a cumulative return of +2,220.4% since 2012, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's +517.8% return [24] Sector-Specific Performance - Johnson & Johnson and The Hershey Company, part of the Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio, returned 17.2% and 16.8% respectively over the past 12 weeks, driven by investor interest in quality dividend stocks amid market volatility [19] - Mettler-Toledo International Inc. and PepsiCo, part of the Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio, saw returns of 18.6% and 15.7% over the past 12 weeks [15]

FX Market Drivers - The FX market in the first half of the year was driven by perceived capital flows [1] - The market is uncertain but aware of the significant investment in US equities and treasuries, making returns vulnerable if the economy slows [2] - The market is confused about the short-term rate story, focusing on whether the US economy is slowing slightly or facing a more significant slowdown [2] US Dollar and Economic Data - The market is overreacting to macroeconomic data, anticipating overreactions to data releases in September [3] - The "sell dollar, sell the United States" trade has plateaued, shifting towards a landscape of nuanced reactions to each data point [4] - The data will determine if the US economy is slowing significantly [4] Currency Movements and Economic Impact - Rapid currency movements, like the Euro-Dollar increase from 102 to 118, trigger reactions from inflation-targeting central banks and the economy [5] - The future Euro-Dollar rate, potentially reaching 125 or remaining at current levels, depends on the extent of the US economic slowdown in the next three months [6] - A repeat of soft payroll numbers could lead to a further 5-10% dollar weakness [6][7] - A gentle easing in US growth may not justify significant dollar weakness if the inflation impact from tariffs is limited [7]