Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are at two-week highs due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which is anticipated to boost economic growth and energy demand, while also considering geopolitical risks affecting oil supplies from Russia and Venezuela [1] Group 1 - Oil prices are currently elevated, reaching levels not seen in two weeks [1] - Investors are anticipating a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week [1] - The expected rate cut is likely to enhance economic growth and increase energy demand [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks are being monitored, particularly those that could impact oil supplies from Russia and Venezuela [1]

January WTI crude oil (CLF26) today is up +0.61 (+1.03%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) is up +0.0017 (+0.09%). Crude oil and gasoline prices are moving higher today on dollar weakness as the dollar index (DXY00) dropped to a 5-week low.  Also, the war in Ukraine looks set to drag on, which will keep sanctions on Russian energy exports in place, after US-Russian talks failed to reach a breakthrough in ending the war in Ukraine.  Gains in crude are limited after Saudi Arabia cut the price of its main c ...

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have decreased due to hopes for a resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian war, which could lead to increased global oil supplies as restrictions on Russian energy exports may be lifted [1] - Russian geopolitical tensions and military threats are providing support for crude oil prices, despite the overall downward trend [2][5] - Recent data indicates a significant rise in crude oil stored on stationary tankers, reaching the highest level in nearly 2.5 years [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC has revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, now projecting a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to higher-than-expected US production and increased OPEC output [4] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its 2025 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd, up from 13.53 million bpd [4] Geopolitical Factors - Venezuelan geopolitical risks are contributing to the support of crude prices, following statements from President Trump regarding the airspace over Venezuela [5] - Reduced crude exports from Russia are also underpinning crude prices, with shipments falling to 1.7 million bpd in early November, the lowest in over three years [6] - Ukraine's military actions have targeted Russian refineries, knocking out 13% to 20% of Russia's refining capacity and limiting crude export capabilities [6]

January WTI crude oil (CLF26) today is down -0.21 (-0.35%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) is down -0.00195 (-1.04%). Crude oil and gasoline prices are slightly lower today due to a stronger dollar.  Also, there are hopes for an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war as the key parties trade various peace plans.  An end to the war could allow restrictions on Russian energy exports to be removed, boosting global oil supplies. More News from Barchart However, crude oil has support after Interfax today report ...

January WTI crude oil (CLF26) today is up +0.62 (+1.06%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) closed up +0.0316 (+1.73%). Crude oil and gasoline prices rallied to 1-week highs today as the decline in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 1.5-week low is bullish for energy prices.  Also, the concern that the Russian-Ukrainian war will continue supports crude prices.  Russian President Putin was vague when asked about US President Trump's proposal for ending the war, and European Commission Vice President Kallas said ...

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have reached 5-week lows due to expectations of increased global oil supplies following a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war and weaker-than-expected US economic data [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - January WTI crude oil closed down -0.89 (-1.51%) and January RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0235 (-1.29%) [1] - The decline in prices is attributed to expectations that lifting restrictions on Russian energy exports will boost global oil supplies [1][2] - A weaker US dollar limited losses in crude oil prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - US retail sales rose by +0.2% month-over-month in September, below the expected +0.4% [3] - ADP reported a decline in US private payrolls by an average of -13,500 per week for the four weeks ending November 8 [3] - The Conference Board's US consumer confidence index fell -6.8 to a 7-month low of 88.7, weaker than the expected 93.3 [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Reduced crude exports from Russia are supporting oil prices, with shipments falling to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of November, the lowest in over 3 years [4] - Ukraine's targeting of Russian refineries has knocked out 13% to 20% of Russia's refining capacity, limiting production by up to 1.1 million bpd [4] - New US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies and infrastructure have further curtailed Russian oil exports [4] Group 4: Supply Dynamics - Crude oil stored on stationary tankers rose by +9.7% week-over-week to 114.31 million barrels, the highest level in 2.25 years [5] - Ongoing geopolitical risks related to Russia and potential US military actions against Venezuela are providing underlying support for oil prices [5]

January WTI crude oil (CLF26) today is down -1.37 (-2.33%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) is down -0.0363 (-1.99%). Crude oil and gasoline prices sold off to 5-week lows today on expectations that an end to the Russia-Ukraine war could boost global oil supplies as restrictions on Russian energy exports are removed.  Also, weaker-than-expected US economic news today is negative for energy demand and crude prices. More News from Barchart Crude price tumbled today after ABC News reported that Ukraine a ...

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have dropped to four-week lows, influenced by a strong dollar and geopolitical developments in Ukraine [2][3] - OPEC has revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, indicating an oversupply situation [5] - OPEC+ plans to increase production in December but will pause further hikes in early 2026 due to the emerging global oil surplus [6] Price Movements - January WTI crude oil is down by $1.23 (-2.08%) and January RBOB gasoline is down by $0.0362 (-1.96%) [1] - The dollar index has reached a 5.5-month high, contributing to bearish sentiment in energy prices [2] Geopolitical Factors - The potential for a peace plan in Ukraine has initially led to a drop in crude prices, although prices recovered after Ukraine and European allies rejected key points of the plan [2] - Ongoing geopolitical risks, including the seizure of an oil tanker by Iran and US military actions regarding Venezuela, continue to support oil prices [4] Supply Dynamics - Russian crude exports have decreased significantly, with shipments falling to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in early November, the lowest in over three years [3] - Ukraine's targeting of Russian refineries has reduced Russia's refining capacity by 13% to 20%, impacting production by up to 1.1 million bpd [3] OPEC and Production Estimates - OPEC has identified a surplus of 500,000 bpd in global oil markets for Q3, a significant shift from a previously estimated deficit of 400,000 bpd [5] - OPEC's crude production increased by 50,000 bpd to 29.07 million bpd, marking the highest level in 2.5 years [6] - The IEA forecasts a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [6]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced a decline after an initial rally, with gasoline reaching a two-week low [2] - The drop in crude prices was influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the potential for a peace plan in Ukraine, which could lead to an easing of sanctions on Russian energy exports [4] - OPEC revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, indicating a shift in supply dynamics [7] Price Movements - December WTI crude oil closed down by $0.30 (-0.50%), while December RBOB gasoline fell by $0.0137 (-0.71%) [1] - Gasoline prices fell significantly, marking a two-week low, as crude prices faced downward pressure [2] Geopolitical Factors - Ukrainian President Zelenskiy's agreement to consider a US-Russia peace plan raised concerns about future sanctions on Russian oil, potentially increasing global oil supplies [4] - Continued geopolitical risks, including Iran's seizure of an oil tanker and US military actions regarding Venezuela, are providing underlying support for oil prices [6] Supply Dynamics - Russian crude exports have decreased, with Vortexa reporting a drop to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in early November, the lowest in over three years [5] - Ukraine's military actions have targeted Russian refineries, reducing Russia's refining capacity by 13% to 20% and limiting crude production by up to 1.1 million bpd [5] OPEC and Production Estimates - OPEC's recent revision indicates a surplus of 500,000 bpd in global oil markets for Q3, contrasting with a previous estimate of a 400,000 bpd deficit [7] - The EIA has also increased its 2025 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd, up from 13.53 million bpd [7]

December WTI crude oil (CLZ25) on Tuesday closed up +0.83 (+1.39%), and December RBOB gasoline (RBZ25) closed up +0.0092 (+0.46%). Crude oil prices recovered from early losses on Tuesday and moved higher after hawkish rhetoric by the European Union's top diplomat raised expectations that sanctions on Russian energy supplies will tighten.  Crude prices initially retreated on Tuesday after a selloff in the S&P 500 to a 1-month low sparked risk-off sentiment in asset markets.  Also, signs of weakness in the ...