Core Insights - U.S. retail and restaurant sales remained unchanged in October compared to September, indicating a moderation in consumer spending due to concerns over rising prices and economic uncertainties following a summer spending spree [1][3]. Retail Sales Performance - A significant factor contributing to the stagnant sales was a 1.6% decline in sales at motor vehicle and auto parts dealerships, primarily due to the end of federal subsidies that had previously boosted demand for electric vehicles. Excluding this category, retail sales increased by 0.4% [2]. - The overall flat spending in October was below economists' expectations and followed a revised 0.1% increase in September. Retail sales had previously surged by 0.6% in July and August and 1% in June [3]. Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - The retail sales report suggests that consumers are being selective in their spending, with many households facing high prices for essentials like groceries and rent, compounded by tariffs on imported goods [5]. - The latest job report indicates a deteriorating employment situation, with a net loss of 105,000 jobs in October, which could negatively impact consumer spending and the broader economy [7]. Sector-Specific Sales Trends - Sales in clothing and accessories stores rose by 0.9%, while furniture and home furnishing stores saw a 2.3% increase, likely driven by rising prices due to tariffs. Online retailers experienced a 1.8% sales increase, and department stores reported a 4.9% rise. However, restaurant sales, a key indicator of discretionary spending, fell by 0.4% [6]. Outlook for Holiday Sales - Despite the disappointing retail sales report for October, underlying details suggest potential for improved consumer spending in the fourth quarter, particularly as retailers prepare for the holiday shopping season with extended hours and promotions [4].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh is a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, alongside National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [2][3] - President Trump emphasized the importance of the next Fed chair consulting with him on interest rate decisions, asserting that his voice should be considered [2] Group 2: FDA Travel During Government Shutdown - A CNBC investigation revealed that 31 FDA staff members traveled to Singapore for a conference during a record-setting government shutdown, costing the agency over $250,000, or nearly $8,000 per attendee [4][5] - The trip was deemed "mission critical" by the FDA, despite the agency facing staffing and resource constraints due to the 43-day shutdown and a proposed 11.5% budget cut [5] Group 3: U.S. Shipbuilding Industry - The Trump administration aims to revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding industry, which currently lags behind China, capturing only 25% of new ship orders and having significantly less building capacity [7][8] - To enhance domestic shipbuilding, the administration is seeking partnerships with international companies, such as South Korea's Hanwha, indicating that foreign expertise is necessary for success [8] Group 4: Netflix and "Stranger Things" - Netflix is set to release the final episodes of "Stranger Things," marking a significant milestone for the streaming platform, which has developed numerous partnerships related to the series [10][11] - The franchise is viewed as a pivotal moment for Netflix, comparable to a "Star Wars" moment, due to its cultural impact and contribution to live events [11]

Just a few more government shutdowns then up only*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone):GUESS WHO’S BACK?Kalshi now assigns a 43% probability of a U.S. government shutdown on January 31, 2026, the highest level since the 2025 crisis.Goldman Sachs estimates a 40–50% risk, while JPMorgan puts the odds at 20–40% for a lapse in early 2026. Both firms say a short https://t.co/4AkcBdQhG8 ...

Core Insights - Kroger reports that middle-income households are increasingly cutting back on grocery spending, making smaller and more frequent shopping trips to manage their budgets [3][4][9] - The pressure on low-income households has been ongoing, with both groups reducing discretionary purchases such as meat, snacks, and alcohol due to inflation and economic concerns [4][5][9] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are responding to various economic pressures, including a sluggish job market, government shutdowns, interruptions in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, and rising inflation [5] - Middle-income shoppers are now exhibiting stress behaviors similar to those of low-income households, indicating a broader trend of budget stretching across different income levels [9] Retailer Responses - Dollar General has seen a 7.6% year-over-year growth in its $1 sections, highlighting the importance of low-priced products for low-income shoppers [6] - Dollar Tree experienced a drop in traffic due to "sticker shock" from price increases but noted that all of its 4.2% year-over-year growth in comparable store sales came from higher-priced purchases [8] Market Implications - Retailers are navigating rising costs and tariffs, with some raising prices, but excessive price increases could deter even middle-income shoppers from traditional stores [7]

'Business conditions remain soft as a result of higher costs from tariffs, the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty' ...

US consumers showed signs of fatigue leading up to the longest government shutdown, and their outlook has worsened ever since, sending a note of caution heading into the holiday-shopping season https://t.co/0j1FfhmCKG ...

'We're just going to go through this again': Americans fear second government shutdown https://t.co/r5naoTeRbj ...

We're joined by Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley. Really great to have you with us on this first day after the government shut down. Mike, now that it's over, now what.Good morning. Good morning, Nathan. Yeah.Well, I think most people probably won't feel the effects. I'm sure the government employees are happy to get back to work. And look, I think from our standpoint, from a market standpoint, I mean, this is the longer that this kind of, you know, lagged into the holidays, it de ...

Impact of Government Shutdown - The Small Business Administration (SBA) was prevented from delivering over $5 billion in loans to approximately 10,000 small businesses due to the government shutdown [1][2] - The shutdown potentially cost the American economy $100 billion in economic activity and 60,000 lost jobs [5] - The SBA is rapidly processing delayed loans to reopen Main Street [3] Economic Outlook and Small Business Confidence - Small business confidence is at a 7-year high and above its 52-year average, even amid the shutdown [8][9] - GDP growth was 3.8% in the last quarter, and wages are growing faster than inflation for the first time in four years [6] - $17 trillion is expected to come into the country, much of which will be deployed at small businesses [6] Labor and AI - The percentage of small businesses mentioning labor quality as their single most important problem jumped to 27%, up nine points month over month [11] - The SBA is focused on skilled labor opportunities, working with Secretary Chavez Dreamer to support an initiative to have over 1 million apprentices [13] - AI is expected to level the playing field for small businesses, enabling them to compete with larger businesses [16] Trade and Investment - The United States is a source of about 60% of the world's capital, being invested at unprecedented levels [19] - Over $100 billion in total capacity is going out to small businesses, reflecting their confidence to invest, borrow, grow, and hire [20] - Fair trade policies are expected to bring back industries and enhance national security [24]

From @WSJopinion: Ordinary Democrats didn’t demand a shutdown. Left-wing nonprofits did. It was all for show, literally, writes Barton Swaim. https://t.co/nVz5VTWMXm ...