Mortgage Rate Outlook - Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts mortgage rates to remain above 6% through 2028 [1] - Expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates three to four times in the next six months [3] - Rising term premiums and concerns about debt and deficit will push up 10-year Treasury yields, impacting mortgage rates [4] - Mortgage rates are closely tied to the longer end of the yield curve, specifically 10-year Treasuries [4] Housing Market Analysis - 2023 was the low point for the housing and mortgage market [6] - Home sales are expected to increase by about 5% in 2026 [7] - Existing inventory has increased by approximately 30% compared to last year [11] - Builders are offering buy-downs, potentially permanent, to move new construction inventory, which is at nine months of supply [13][14] Buyer and Seller Dynamics - First-time buyers have acclimated to the 6% to 6.5% rate range [10] - Move-up buyers with lower locked-in rates (e g, 3%) are reluctant to give them up [10] - Increased inventory benefits buyers with more options, but challenges sellers as it takes longer to sell and home prices have flattened [8]

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Market Trends - Pending home sales increased by 4% in August compared to July, exceeding expectations for flat growth [1] - Year-over-year, pending home sales were up 3.8% [1] - The real estate industry anticipates overall sales trajectory to rise due to decreasing interest rates [2] - A realtor survey indicates that 19% expect increased buyer traffic in the next three months, up from 16% last month [2][3] Inventory and Regional Sales - August saw the first inventory decrease since the beginning of the year [3] - Sales increased in three out of four regions, with the Northeast being the only region experiencing a decline [3] - The Midwest region demonstrated the strongest sales performance [3] Forward-Looking Indicators - Pending home sales are based on signed contracts, serving as a forward-looking indicator for closed sales in September and October [1] - New home sales also measured by signed contracts experienced a significant surge [2]

Economic Growth - Q2 GDP revised higher to 38%, representing the fastest economic growth in 2 years [1] - Economy is holding up better than expected [1] Labor Market - Initial & continuous jobless claims lower than expected [1] Housing Market - Home sales higher than expected [1] Inflation - Core PCE marginally higher [1] Market Sentiment - Risk is down [1] Interest Rates - Rates are up [1]

Core Insights - The median home price reached $422,600, marking a 2% increase from the previous year and the highest price recorded for the month of August [1] Group 1 - The median home price is at an all-time high for August [1] - The year-over-year increase in median home price is 2% [1]

Real Estate Market Overview - The real estate market is not always "easy money" [4] - Existing homeowners are hesitant to move due to higher mortgage rates, with 80% having rates under 5% and facing a potential move to a 7% market [5] - Texas is not "doomed" despite rumors of Airbnb destroying the market [7] Texas Market Dynamics - The median home price in Texas is up 40%, creating a difficult situation for potential sellers [6] - Austin is experiencing significant population growth, with 400 people moving there daily, equating to adding the city of Pittsburgh every four to five years [8] - Austin has the fastest rental rate in the United States based on net absorption [10] Austin Commercial Development - Despite construction challenges, Austin's market is expected to strengthen due to the influx of people and intracompany business [9] - Tesla's $16 billion deal with Samsung, which has a location in Taylor (just outside of Austin), is expected to positively impact the market [9] - Major companies like Tesla, Oracle, Schwab, and Dell have a presence in Austin [8] Builder Concessions - Builders are offering concessions and price decreases to move new homes, indicating a less favorable market than headline numbers suggest [4] - New homes being sold require builders to make less money to move units [5]

Britain’s biggest housebuilder warns that the period leading into the UK budget in November has introduced "additional risk" to home sales https://t.co/fznIb12Rfb ...

Canadian home sales rose for a fifth straight month as a buildup of listings lured buyers back to the market https://t.co/qSN1HjTkMI ...

Fiscal Policy & Economic Growth - The analysis suggests tariffs are running at an annual rate between $400 billion and $500 billion, potentially improving the deficit, but real GDP growth is considered the key to significantly reducing the deficit as a percentage of GDP [1] - The report anticipates real GDP growth will surprise on the high side of expectations later in the year and into 2026, driven by innovation platforms like robotics, energy storage, AI, multiomic sequencing, and blockchain technology, all catalyzed by AI [1] - The analysis highlights deregulation, particularly in crypto, AI, and nuclear energy, as a significant factor for economic growth, with tax changes encouraging manufacturing and innovation through accelerated depreciation schedules and full expensing of equipment, R&D, and software [1] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The report indicates that while inflation may seem stuck in the 2% to 3% range, innovation-driven productivity gains could lead to deflation in the coming years [2] - The analysis points out that M2 money supply growth has significantly dropped compared to the COVID boom, and the velocity of money is declining, potentially diffusing inflationary pressures [2] - The yield curve, measured by the two-year Treasury yield relative to the three-month Treasury yield, indicates tight monetary policy, which is expected to have disinflationary or deflationary effects [3] - True inflation CPI is reported at 19%, even with tariffs factored in, and consumer inflation expectations are expected to decline [3] Market Indicators & Investment Strategy - The analysis notes that manufacturing has been contracting for the last three years, and services are not in great shape, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The report highlights that AI-powered capital spending is increasing, supported by new tax rules, while the trade deficit is being addressed [5] - The analysis observes that pending home sales are deteriorating, and new home inventory is high, potentially leading to price cuts and impacting the CPI [5] - The report suggests that the return on investment in the US is expected to increase due to innovation, tax laws, and deregulation, potentially strengthening the dollar [5] - The analysis notes that corporate profits are healthy, but quality of earnings and harnessing new technologies will be crucial for future growth [5] - The report observes that commodity prices are going nowhere, and gold is breaking out to all-time highs relative to metals, possibly signaling deflationary concerns [5]

Market Trends - Pending home sales in July decreased by 0.4% compared to June but increased by 0.7% compared to July of the previous year [1] - The market anticipated a slight increase of 0.3% in pending home sales, effectively remaining flat [1] - Signed contracts in July were influenced by rising average rates on 30-year fixed mortgages [1] - Sales declined month-over-month in the Northeast and Midwest, remained flat in the South, and increased in the West [2] Contract Cancellations - Redfin reported that 15% of homes under contract in July were cancelled, marking the highest cancellation rate since 2017 [3] Realtor Expectations - Only 16% of realtors surveyed anticipate an increase in buyer traffic over the next 3 months [3]