Core Insights - Sales of previously owned homes increased by 1.5% in September compared to August, reaching a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.06 million units, marking the highest pace in seven months despite being slightly below analyst forecasts [1] - Year-over-year, sales were up 4.1% compared to September of the previous year [1] Regional Performance - On an annual basis, sales were strongest in the South and Northeast regions, while the West saw the highest monthly sales increase from August, and the Midwest experienced a slight decline [2] - The average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan decreased from 6.67% in early July to 6.17% by the end of September, contributing to the sales increase [2] Market Dynamics - Falling mortgage rates are positively impacting home sales, with improved housing affordability also playing a role in the sales increase, according to the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors [3] - Inventory of homes for sale rose by 14% year-over-year to 1.55 million units at the end of September, although this remains historically low [3] - At the current sales pace, there is a 4.6-month supply of homes available, with a balanced market typically considered to have a six-month supply [3]

Washington, D.C., Oct. 23, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Existing-home sales increased by 1.5% month-over-month in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. The Report provides the real estate ecosystem, including agents and homebuyers and sellers, with data on the level of home sales, price, and inventory. Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and ...

Core Viewpoint - West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. reported significant challenges in the third quarter of 2025, including supply and demand imbalances for wood-based products, elevated mortgage rates affecting housing affordability, and new tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber. The company remains committed to its strategy of maintaining operational flexibility and controlling costs while seeking long-term shareholder value [1][2]. Financial Performance - Third quarter sales were $1.307 billion, down from $1.532 billion in the second quarter of 2025. - The company reported a loss of $204 million, or $(2.63) per diluted share, compared to a loss of $24 million, or $(0.38) per diluted share in the previous quarter. - Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $(144) million, a decline from $84 million in Q2-25 [2][12]. Tariffs and Trade - The U.S. administration imposed a 10% Section 232 tariff on imported softwood timber and lumber effective October 14, 2025, in addition to existing duties on Canadian lumber [3]. - Canadian softwood lumber exports to the U.S. have faced trade disputes and tariffs since April 2017, impacting the company's operations [2]. Liquidity and Capital Allocation - Cash and short-term investments decreased to $546 million as of September 26, 2025, from $641 million at the end of 2024. - Capital expenditures in Q3-25 were $90 million, and the company paid $25 million in dividends, maintaining a dividend of $0.32 per share for the fourth quarter [5][6]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates medium to long-term demand for new home construction in North America due to factors such as improved housing affordability, a large population cohort entering home-buying age, and an aging housing stock [7][8]. - The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of U.S. housing starts was 1.31 million units in August 2025, with permits issued for the same number, indicating stable construction activity despite near-term uncertainties [9]. Operational Insights - The Lumber segment faced muted demand in Q3-25, leading to a reduction in shipment targets for both SPF and SYP products [11]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the Lumber segment was $(123) million, which included $67 million in export duty expenses [12][34]. Regional Demand - In Europe and the U.K., demand is expected to improve but remain challenging in the near term, with long-term growth anticipated due to the increasing use of OSB as an alternative to plywood [10]. - The global pulp market is experiencing disruptions due to U.S. tariffs, creating demand uncertainty in Chinese markets, although NBSK pricing is expected to remain stable [15].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing adjustment in the national real estate market has led to significant price drops in many cities, sparking discussions on whether 2025 is a good time to buy a home. There are differing opinions, with some viewing it as a buying opportunity while others believe there is still room for further declines, suggesting a wait-and-see approach. Group 1: Key Indicators for Home Buying Decision - Monitoring the ratio of mortgage burden to household income is crucial. A healthy standard is that monthly mortgage payments should not exceed 30% of total household income. If first-time buyers are required to allocate over 45% of their income to mortgage repayments, entering the market in 2025 may not be wise [3]. - Examining the disparity between housing prices and personal income is essential. Currently, the price-to-income ratio in second and third-tier cities ranges from 20 to 25, while in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, it exceeds 40. A reasonable price-to-income ratio should be between 12 and 15, indicating that families can afford a home without extreme financial strain [5]. - Keeping a close watch on rental price trends is important. Nationwide, rental prices are generally declining, which correlates with decreasing household incomes. For instance, in Shanghai, the monthly rent for a 35 square meter one-bedroom apartment has dropped from 4000 yuan to 3300 yuan [6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Implications - The ongoing decline in rental prices, coupled with high housing prices, is leading more young people to prefer renting over buying. If the trend of falling rents continues, it suggests that housing prices may still face downward pressure [8]. - Not all regions are experiencing the same real estate market conditions. Some cities have seen extreme cases of significant price drops. For example, a residential property in Tianjin's Wuqing district fell from 1.6 million yuan in 2016 to 390,000 yuan, a drop of 1.21 million yuan. Similar situations have occurred in Yanjiao, where a property that peaked at 3.1 million yuan in 2017 is now listed at 680,000 yuan, reflecting a 78% decline [8]. - Even first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are not immune to price declines. In Shanghai's Minhang District, the price per square meter dropped from 96,000 yuan in 2021 to 48,000 yuan, nearly halving in just four years. Since early 2022, national housing prices have been on a downward trend for three consecutive years, with an average decline of nearly 30% across the country [8].

RT auspill (@aus_pill)Australia has recorded its lowest ever birth rates, again.At the same time, record levels of immigrants continue to pour into the country.But not only is immigration making Aussies poorer, it’s directly correlated with declining birth rates.Research shows immigration itself is a factor behind declining birth rates - it contributes significantly to unaffordable housing, stagnant wage growth, and decreased productivity - all factors researchers have identified as key reasons Australians ...

Core Insights - Rent prices are increasing in various markets, but affordable options are still available in certain regions, particularly in the South and Midwest, with some apartments listed for under $1,000 [1][2] - Zillow's analysis indicates that 13 out of 100 tracked metros, or approximately 13%, have more than one-third of their apartments renting for less than $1,000 [2] - The housing market is experiencing a shift, with nearly 20% of American homes reducing prices, providing some relief to homeowners facing affordability challenges [3] Rent Affordability - Rent on a typical apartment has risen nearly 40% since 2019, creating financial pressure for both renters and homeowners [3] - Today's renters would need to allocate 5% of their income for almost nine years to afford a 10% down payment on a typical home, an increase from 7.4% since 2019 [5] - Moving to more affordable areas can significantly enhance long-term financial health and assist in saving for a future home [6] Affordable Rental Markets - Wichita, Kansas, has the highest percentage of apartments listed for under $1,000, with 54% of listings in this price range [8][11] - McAllen, Texas, follows closely with just over 50% of apartments priced below $1,000 [8][11] - Other notable metros with affordable options include Little Rock, Arkansas (49%), Toledo, Ohio (46%), and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (42%) [11] - In contrast, cities like Boston, Miami, and Washington, D.C., have less than 1.8% of listings renting for under $1,000, indicating a scarcity of affordable options in these markets [12]

Yet the ability of young couples to afford a house is at an all-time low. Housing costs have not appreciably risen in real terms. But wages have dramatically fallen in real terms, thanks to globalization and immigration.Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator):https://t.co/RGRHXK0JY5 ...

Industry Concerns & Government Intervention - The administration is aggressively pursuing supply-side solutions to housing affordability, which is viewed negatively by home builders [2] - The administration believes there's a national housing deficit causing high home prices and inflation, and perceives builders as deliberately limiting production for profit [3][4] - The administration believes increasing home supply can improve affordability, reduce inflation, and boost employment [5] - The focus on supply-side solutions is problematic because there is currently a demand problem, not a supply problem [6] Company Performance & Valuation - Home builders have improved operations, become more asset-light, and gained competitive advantages [8] - Home builders outperform S&P peers on many metrics but trade at a fraction of their valuation, suggesting a potential revaluation [9] - The sector's multiple should increase based on prudent capital allocation after a difficult demand period [7] Downgrade & Risks - Evercore ISI downgraded six home builder stocks due to exogenous risks from the administration [1][11][12] - The downgrades were from "buy" or "outperform" to "neutral" or "inline," but price targets, though cut, remain above current trading levels [11][12] - The severity of the administration's changes could impact earnings and price targets [13] - The risks from the administration are not fully understood, and investors were not prepared for them [13][14]

US President Donald Trump on Sunday evening, 5 October 2025, accused major homebuilders of deliberately holding back housing construction.Because of this, Trump called on mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to step in and push builders into action, saying it was time to 'help restore the American Dream'. He said developers now had access to financing, so there was 'no excuse not to build'.Trump Says Big Homebuilders Are Just Like OPECTrump's Truth Social post drew widespread attention after he likene ...

Economic Sentiment - A growing sense of economic pessimism is evident in the U.S., with nearly 70% of Americans believing the economy is headed in the wrong direction [1] - According to Fannie Mae's September 2025 Home Purchase Sentiment Index, only 32% of respondents feel the economy is on the "right track," while 67% believe it is on the "wrong track," a slight increase from 64% in August [2] - The majority of consumers express pessimism about their personal finances, with only 32% expecting improvement over the next year and 23% anticipating deterioration [3] Housing Market Outlook - The sentiment regarding home buying is particularly negative, with only 27% of respondents considering it a good time to buy a home, while 73% think it is a bad time [5] - The net share of respondents viewing buying conditions as favorable has decreased to negative 46%, a level that has persisted since summer [5] - High mortgage rates and home prices are significant factors affecting homebuyers' attitudes, with mortgage rates peaking at 8% and currently remaining near 6% [6]