Core Insights - The housing market is experiencing a downturn, with existing home sales in January dropping 8.4% from December, reflecting ongoing affordability challenges and low inventory levels [1][2] - Economists anticipate a potential improvement in sales due to lower mortgage rates, but affordability issues are expected to persist [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Existing home sales in January were at an annualized rate below 4 million, maintaining activity near decades-low levels [1] - The decline in sales is attributed to poor weather conditions and limited inventory, which has kept prices elevated [1][2] Group 2: Affordability Trends - Mortgage rates averaged 6.1% in January, down from nearly 7% a year ago, contributing to improved affordability conditions [1] - The median home price in January was $396,800, reflecting a modest increase of 0.9% from the previous year [1] Group 3: Inventory and Market Dynamics - Inventory levels increased by 3.4% over the past year, but remain significantly below pre-pandemic averages, limiting home price appreciation [1] - The cold weather in early January impacted home sales, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast regions, with expectations that warmer weather may boost sales [1][2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Economists predict a thaw in market conditions this spring, but significant improvements in affordability are seen as distant [1] - Low inventory levels are likely to continue affecting the market, with a cap on how much sales activity can improve in the near term [1]

Core Insights - U.S. existing home sales fell to the lowest level in over two years, with an 8.4% drop in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million units, below economists' expectations of 4.18 million units [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - Home sales decreased 4.4% year-over-year, reflecting a significant decline in market activity [2] - The decrease in sales is attributed to low inventory levels, despite improving affordability conditions due to wage gains and lower mortgage rates [3] Group 2: Inventory and Pricing - Existing home inventory fell by 0.8% to 1.22 million units, although it was up 3.4% compared to the previous year [5] - The median existing home price rose by 0.9% year-over-year to $396,800, marking the highest price for any January [5] - At the current sales pace, it would take 3.7 months to exhaust the existing home inventory, an increase from 3.5 months a year ago [5] Group 3: Buyer Demographics - First-time buyers represented 31% of sales, an increase from 28% a year ago, indicating a slight improvement in market participation [6] - All-cash sales accounted for 27% of transactions, down from 29% a year ago, while distressed sales made up 2% of transactions, down from 3% [6]

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is facing challenges due to high home prices, declining supply, and weakened consumer confidence [1] Sales Performance - Sales of previously owned homes in January fell by 8.4% from December to an annualized rate of 3.91 million, marking a 4.4% decrease compared to January 2025, the slowest pace since December 2023 [2] - The decline in sales was most pronounced in the South and West regions of the U.S. [3] Affordability and Supply - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that affordability conditions are improving, with the Housing Affordability Index indicating the most affordable housing since March 2022, driven by wage gains outpacing home price growth and lower mortgage rates [4] - Despite improvements in affordability, housing supply remains low, with 1.22 million homes for sale at the end of January, representing a 3.7-month supply, below the balanced market threshold of six months [4] Home Prices and Market Dynamics - Tighter supply has kept home prices positive, with the median home price in January at $396,800, a 0.9% increase year-over-year and the highest January price on record [5] - Homes are taking longer to sell, averaging 46 days in January compared to 41 days in January of the previous year [5] - The market is seeing stronger sales in the higher-end segment, particularly for homes priced over $1 million, while sales for homes priced below $250,000 have dropped significantly [6]

Core Viewpoint - West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. reported challenging financial results for Q4 2025, with significant losses attributed to elevated softwood lumber duties, oversupply issues, and reduced demand for wood-based products, while also highlighting ongoing capital investments aimed at improving operational efficiency and cost management [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q4 2025 sales were $1.165 billion, down from $1.307 billion in Q3 2025 - Q4 2025 earnings were $(751) million, or $(9.63) per diluted share, compared to $(204) million, or $(2.63) per diluted share in Q3 2025 - Full year 2025 sales totaled $5.462 billion, down from $6.174 billion in 2024, with full year earnings of $(937) million, or $(12.08) per diluted share, compared to $(5) million, or $(0.07) per diluted share in 2024 [1][2][3]. Segment Performance - Europe Engineered Wood Products (EWP) segment Adjusted EBITDA was $4 million in Q4 2025 - North America EWP segment Adjusted EBITDA was $(24) million, excluding $239 million of restructuring and impairment charges - Lumber segment Adjusted EBITDA was $(57) million, excluding $473 million of restructuring and impairment charges [1][2][6]. Capital Allocation and Share Repurchase - The company repurchased 108,079 shares for $7 million in Q4 2025 and 1,639,207 shares for $124 million in 2025 - Cash and short-term investments decreased to $202 million at the end of 2025 from $641 million at the end of 2024 - Capital expenditures in Q4 2025 were $139 million, with full year capital expenditures at $411 million [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - The U.S. housing market is expected to stabilize, with a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of housing starts at 1.25 million units in October 2025 - Demand for new home construction may face challenges due to mortgage rate fluctuations and housing affordability issues - In Europe, demand for wood products is anticipated to improve in the long term, driven by an aging housing stock and increased use of OSB [2][3][4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on modernizing its operations, including the completion of a new lumber mill in Texas and ramping up an OSB mill in South Carolina - Strategic decisions have been made to close or curtail uneconomic mills to align production with customer demand - The company aims to maintain robust liquidity and a balanced capital allocation strategy to enhance long-term shareholder value [1][2][3].

The housing affordability problem is an availability problem. The supply side of the market has been far depressed for far too long. We Zillow estimates we are 5 million homes underbuilt.We've been accumulating this deficit since the global financial crisis, which is why the 21st Century Housing Act that came out from the House yesterday, we think is a great step towards that. We were really pleased to see how focused that is on supply, on streamlining permitting, regulatory reform to get it easier to build ...

Economic Signals - Retail sales have shown signs of consumer fatigue, leading to increased focus on the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report [2] Corporate Developments - Paramount has increased its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, while an activist investor is preparing to oppose Netflix's deal [2] - Ford reported its largest quarterly loss, attributed to EV-related writedowns, tariffs, and increased costs from fires at its aluminum supplier [2] Housing Legislation - A bipartisan housing package, the Housing for the 21st Century Act, has passed the House and aims to enhance housing supply and homeownership [3] - The Senate is expected to vote on a similar bill, the ROAD to Housing Act, with efforts needed to reconcile both bills before sending a unified measure to the President [3][4] - The Housing for the 21st Century Act includes 38 sections aimed at removing regulatory barriers, expanding local lending, and streamlining processes [4] Political Dynamics - The Trump administration is facing resistance regarding a proposed ban on large Wall Street investors from purchasing single-family homes, with many legislators favoring supply-side solutions for housing affordability [5] Market Updates - Blackstone has raised its stake in Anthropic during a recent funding round [7] - Tesla's sales executive has resigned, and xAI has lost another co-founder [7] - ByteDance has denied reports about an in-house AI chip project [7] Economic Indicators - There are indications of a consumer pullback, with Q4 GDP estimates being cut and household debt increasing [6] - Wealth manager stocks have declined following the launch of a new AI tool [6]

CNBC's Diana Olick sits down with Mark Rayfield, CEO of Saint-Gobain North America, to discuss building efficiently, investing in the North American market and addressing housing affordability. ...

Core Insights - Some housing markets remain unaffordable even if mortgage rates drop significantly, while others could see improved affordability with minor rate declines [2][4] - A Zillow report indicates that mortgage rates would need to decrease by over 4% for typical homes to be affordable for median-income families, with current rates at 6.11% [3] Housing Market Analysis - Major cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Miami have average home values exceeding $800,000 and $1 million, making them unaffordable even at a 0% mortgage rate [4] - In cities such as Boston and Seattle, mortgage rates would need to fall below 1% for homes to be affordable, while Dallas, New Orleans, and Nashville require a drop of over two percentage points [4][6] Regional Affordability - In contrast, areas with lower home prices, like Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, have an average home value of $231,518, allowing affordability even if mortgage rates rise to 9% [5] - Birmingham, Alabama, with an average home value of $132,725, could remain affordable at rates up to 7.62%, and Detroit's average of $76,340 allows for affordability at 7.02% [6]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump aims to maintain high home prices to support existing homeowners, contrary to the need for increased construction to address housing affordability issues in America [1][2][3]. Group 1: Housing Market Dynamics - Trump's focus on keeping home prices high may alienate younger voters who are struggling with housing affordability [3][5]. - The under-40 demographic is crucial for electoral success, as they significantly contributed to Trump's previous victory [4][5]. - Homeownership among Trump's voter base is high, with 81% of his voters being homeowners, which may lessen the urgency of housing as an electoral issue [4]. Group 2: Construction and Supply Issues - There is a significant lack of housing supply, with permits for single-family homes dropping by 9.4% over the past year to an annual rate of 876,000 [8]. - Real estate professionals report a competitive market with properties receiving multiple offers due to low inventory [7]. - Trump's previous calls for increased construction have not been followed by action, and he has recently shifted away from policies that would increase housing supply [10][11]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Rising home prices have outpaced income growth, complicating the ability for families to save for down payments or upgrade homes [13][14]. - Economic growth could further increase demand for housing, exacerbating affordability issues [15]. - Experts suggest that construction of single-family homes would need to increase by 50% to 100% over the next three years to stabilize home prices [16].

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