V i e w p o i n t | 20 Aug 2025 09:00:00 ET │ 9 pages Global Metals & Mining Cement vs. steel production trends in China: Divergence is explainable CITI'S TAKE China's cement production is annualizing at the lowest levels since 2009 while steel production is c.65% higher than 2009 levels. The increase in steel net exports explains part of the difference—if Chinese net exports of steel went back to 2009 levels (when they were negligible), steel production in China would only be c.45% higher than 2009 levels, ...

Core Insights - Monarch Cement's stock has increased by 2.3% following the Q2 2025 earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500's 1.8% growth during the same period, but has seen a decline of 4.3% over the past month, underperforming the S&P 500's 2.5% advance [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Monarch Cement reported net sales of $67.8 million, a decrease of 6.3% from $72.4 million in the previous year, while net income rose significantly by 62.7% to $18.7 million from $11.5 million, driven by improved equity investment results [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) increased to $4.99 from $3.14, despite a slight contraction in gross profit margins to 36.2% from 38.4% [3] Segment Performance - Cement sales increased by $3 million in Q2 2025, supported by a 0.5% rise in volumes and $2.8 million in price gains, while Ready-Mixed Concrete revenues fell by $7.5 million due to a 31.9% volume decline [4] - Consolidated expenses decreased by $1.3 million year over year, although cement production costs rose by $5.1 million, leading to a significant contraction in gross profit margins for the Cement business to 42.6% from 50.6% [5] Management Commentary - Management highlighted the seasonality of operations, noting that demand peaks in the second and third quarters but is sensitive to adverse weather conditions that can disrupt construction activities [6] Liquidity and Capital Expenditure - Working capital was stable at $136.5 million as of June 30, 2025, down slightly from $141.2 million at the end of 2024, with a cash balance of $34.2 million compared to $38.7 million a year earlier [7] - The company plans to invest $40.1 million in property, plant, and equipment during 2025, with $16 million already allocated to cement production facilities and $6 million to Ready-Mixed Concrete equipment by mid-year [10] Investment Impact - Equity investment results significantly influenced earnings, with an unrealized gain of $4.1 million in Q2 2025 compared to a $10.6 million loss in the prior year, and gains from equity investment sales reaching $9.5 million in the first half of 2025 [8] - Dividend income decreased to $0.1 million in Q2 2025 from $0.2 million a year earlier, while the effective tax rate rose to 26% in the first half of 2025 from 21% [9] Strategic Developments - A structural change occurred in late 2024, with Monarch Cement contributing subsidiaries into a joint venture, RMCMO Holdings, LLC, where it holds a 49% stake, which is expected to diversify operations and provide long-term strategic benefits [11] - The second-quarter results reflect a mixed operating environment, with revenue contraction in the Ready-Mixed Concrete segment but improved net income due to equity investment results [12] - Challenges remain with margin pressures in cement production and reduced concrete volumes, but management's focus on stronger pricing, cost controls, and capital investments aims to enhance long-term competitiveness [13]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Cement Industry in China - **Outlook**: Improved supply-demand dynamics expected to lead to a recovery in cement prices in the near term, supported by better-than-expected anti-involution policies in the long term [1][3] Key Points 1. **Clinker Price Increase**: - Clinker price in the Yangtze River Delta rose by Rmb30/t to Rmb230-240/t FOB due to planned 15-day off-peak production suspension and a bottoming out of prices after previous declines [2] - Cement shipments in the region were affected by adverse weather, operating at 50-60% capacity [2] 2. **Current Market Conditions**: - Cement prices in East China have bottomed, with industry leaders' gross profit per ton (GP/t) near last year's lowest levels, while smaller players are at break-even [3] - Cement inventory utilization is high at 70-80%, which may facilitate better implementation of off-peak production suspensions [3] 3. **Seasonal Improvement Expected**: - Cement shipments are currently low due to weather but are expected to improve seasonally until November [3] - Similar conditions are observed in South and Central China [3] 4. **Long-term Policy Implications**: - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is expected to implement stricter anti-involution policies, potentially reducing approved clinker capacity from ~2.2 billion tons (bnt) to ~1.6 bnt by 2026 [4] - This reduction could improve clinker capacity utilization to ~65% in 2026 from ~50% currently, supporting further price improvements [4] 5. **Beneficiaries**: - Key beneficiaries of the expected price recovery include Anhui Conch, CNBM, CR Building Materials, and Huaxin Cement [3] Additional Insights - **Market Monitoring**: The implementation of price hikes needs to be closely monitored due to potential disruptions in cement shipments caused by weather conditions [2] - **Future Capacity Checks**: MIIT's capacity checks and the introduction of Technical Specifications for Clinker Production Monitoring may lead to more stringent operational standards [4] Conclusion - The cement industry in China is poised for a recovery in prices due to improved supply-demand dynamics and supportive government policies. Key players are expected to benefit from these changes, while ongoing monitoring of market conditions is essential for assessing the implementation of price increases and production adjustments.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The consolidated margin for the quarter stood at 21.2%, showing a year-over-year decline primarily due to a challenging competitive environment [6] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $34 million, down 31% in real terms when measured in pesos, reflecting a contraction in EBITDA margin [7][17] - Net profit attributable to owners of the company totaled ARS 0.4 billion for the quarter, a significant decline from ARS 41 billion in the same quarter of 2024 [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cement dispatch volumes grew by 14% year-over-year, but the Cement segment revenue declined by 9.9% due to weaker pricing [11][12] - Concrete revenues declined by 1.1% despite a 44% increase in volumes, impacted by price pressures [14] - The Aggregates segment posted a slight revenue increase of 0.8%, driven by a 44% increase in volumes [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Argentine economy showed a year-over-year growth of 5.8% in the first quarter, with forecasts for the full year around 5% [9][10] - The Construction Activity Index (ISAC) indicates a positive rebound in the industry, although recovery is not uniform across all sectors [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational efficiency and innovation, with a commitment to transitioning to 25-kilogram cement bags [27] - The management remains optimistic about the future, expecting double-digit growth in cement dispatches for 2025 [26] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the recovery is still in the early stages, with potential political volatility due to upcoming midterm elections [11] - The competitive environment is stable, with expectations for pricing recovery in the second half of the year [34][64] Other Important Information - The company successfully issued a new corporate bond for $112.9 million to address upcoming debt maturity and improve its maturity profile [8][24] - Cash flow used in operational activities totaled ARS 22.3 billion, driven by lower operational results and higher income tax paid [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Timing of price increases and competitive trends - Management indicated that the competitive environment has been challenging, but they foresee an increase in pricing above inflation by the end of the year [33][34] Question: Outlook for construction in the second half of the year - Management expects a gradual moderate growth in construction activity, driven by public works and private investments [39] Question: Expectations for volume growth in 2025 - Management maintains a double-digit growth forecast for volumes in 2025, with specific expectations for low to mid-teens growth [42][50] Question: Impact of energy prices on margins - Management acknowledged that both energy prices and competitive dynamics have affected margins, but they expect a recovery in pricing [56][64] Question: Public work program recovery outlook - Management believes there is significant potential in public infrastructure projects, but the impact in the second half of the year may be limited [67]

Financial Performance - Net revenues reached Ps 174511 million, down 80% (US$ 149 million)[12] - Adjusted EBITDA stood at Ps 37005 million, down 306% (US$ 34 million)[12] - Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 212%, with a contraction of 691 bps YoY from 281%[11] - Net Profit Attributable to Owners of the Company in 2Q25 was Ps 04 billion, down from Ps 41309 million in 2Q24[36] - Consolidated Gross Profit declined 305% year-over-year, while margin contracted by 659 basis points to 204%[28] Volumes and Sales - Cement business dispatches continue its recovery, growing 11% YoY[9] - Total Net Revenues decreased by 80% year-over-year[22] - Concrete sales volumes improved by 440% year-over-year[22] - Aggregates sales volumes increased by 341% year-over-year[22] Balance Sheet - Balance sheet remains solid, with Net Debt of US$ 215 million, representing a Net Debt/LTM Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 134x[11] - Cash position and Investments of Ps 159 billion and total debt at Ps 2721 billion as of end of 2Q25[37] - Successful US$1129 million Class 5 bond issuance in July to refinance short-term debt, extending average duration and preserving a balanced maturity profile[11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Martin Marietta reported consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $630 million, an 8% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35%, up 170 basis points [9] - Aggregates revenues reached $1.32 billion, a 6% increase, while aggregates gross profit increased by 9% to $430 million, with a gross margin of 33%, up 94 basis points [9] - The company increased its full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $2.3 billion at the midpoint, reflecting strong first-half results and positive shipping trends in the third quarter [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Building Materials business posted revenues of $1.7 billion, a 2% increase, with gross profit rising 3% to $517 million and a gross margin of 30% [16] - Magnesia Specialties achieved record revenues of $90 million, with gross profit and gross margin also reaching new highs at $36 million and 40%, respectively [9][18] - Cement and Concrete revenues decreased by 6% to $245 million, with gross profit down 25% to $54 million due to lower operating leverage and higher raw material costs [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The value of state and local government highway, bridge, and tunnel contract awards increased by 10% year-over-year to $126 billion for the twelve months ending June 30, 2025 [11] - Infrastructure remains a strong performer, supported by robust federal and state investment, while residential and non-residential construction trends are mixed [10][11] - Texas is experiencing significant data center growth, driven by low-cost energy and favorable regulatory conditions, with major investments announced by companies like OpenAI and Texas Instruments [12][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on transforming into a higher-margin enterprise that is increasingly aggregates-led, enhancing its product mix while maintaining balance sheet flexibility [8] - The strategic exchange of cement and ready-mixed concrete operations for core aggregates aligns with the company's SOAR 2025 plan [9] - Martin Marietta aims to capitalize on long-term infrastructure investment trends and demographic tailwinds in high-growth markets [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that July showed double-digit volume increases across the enterprise, indicating positive demand trends [24][25] - The company remains cautious about weather impacts on volume but is optimistic about pricing trends and overall market resilience [79][80] - Management expressed confidence in achieving full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, supported by strong fundamentals and a favorable growth outlook [21] Other Important Information - The company entered into an agreement with Quikrete Holdings for an asset exchange, which includes acquiring operations producing approximately 20 million tons annually and $450 million in cash [8] - Capital expenditures for the full year are expected to be in the range of $820 million to $850 million, reflecting upward revisions due to attractive land purchases [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on July demand trends and future outlook - Management reported double-digit volume increases in July, indicating strong demand across the enterprise and a positive outlook for the remainder of the year [24][25] Question: Confidence in increased annual guidance - The increase in guidance is based on strong first-half results, positive shipment trends, and a resilient commercial environment [33][34] Question: Strategic fit of Quickrete assets - The acquired assets are seen as high-quality, particularly in crushed stone, and align with the company's strategic focus on targeted geographies [42][43] Question: Pricing dynamics and market conditions - Management noted that pricing remains solid without significant mix headwinds, and they expect continued pricing strength into 2026 [51][52] Question: Magnesia business focus and growth potential - The Magnesia business is expected to remain an important part of the company's portfolio, contributing positively to margins and cash flow [118][119] Question: Land purchases and expansion strategy - The company is focusing on adjacent land purchases to enhance existing operations rather than pursuing greenfield opportunities [123][124]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Martin Marietta reported consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $630 million, an 8% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35%, up 170 basis points [8][15] - Aggregates revenues reached $1.32 billion, a 6% increase, while aggregates gross profit increased by 9% to $430 million, with a gross margin of 33%, up 94 basis points [8][15] - The company increased its full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $2.3 billion at the midpoint, reflecting strong first-half results and contributions from the Premier acquisition [9][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Building Materials business posted revenues of $1.7 billion, a 2% increase, with gross profit rising 3% to $517 million and a gross margin of 30% [15] - Cement and Concrete revenues decreased by 6% to $245 million, with gross profit down 25% to $54 million due to lower operating leverage and higher raw material costs [15] - Magnesia Specialties achieved record revenues of $90 million, with gross profit and gross margin reaching $36 million and 40%, respectively, driven by strong pricing and efficiency gains [8][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The value of state and local government highway, bridge, and tunnel contract awards increased by 10% year-over-year to $126 billion for the twelve-month period ending June 30, 2025 [10] - Infrastructure remains a strong performer, supported by robust federal and state investment, while residential and non-residential construction trends are mixed [9][10] - Texas is experiencing substantial data center growth, with significant investments from companies like OpenAI and Texas Instruments, indicating a positive outlook for the region [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on shaping a higher-margin enterprise increasingly led by aggregates, enhancing its product mix while preserving balance sheet flexibility [6][7] - The strategic exchange of cement and ready-mixed concrete operations for core aggregates aligns with the company's SOAR 2025 plan [6][7] - The company aims to capitalize on long-term infrastructure investment trends and the anticipated recovery in residential construction [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that July showed double-digit volume increases across the enterprise, indicating positive demand trends [22][24] - The company remains cautious about weather impacts on volume but sees potential upside if conditions improve in the latter half of the year [76] - Management expressed confidence in achieving full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, supported by strong fundamentals and a solid financial foundation [18][19] Other Important Information - Martin Marietta has a well-balanced capital allocation strategy, focusing on value-enhancing acquisitions and maintaining a healthy balance sheet [16][17] - The company expects capital expenditures for the full year to be in the range of $820 million to $850 million, reflecting upward revisions due to attractive land purchases [16][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on July demand trends and future outlook - Management reported double-digit volume increases in July, indicating positive demand across the enterprise and a potential for continued growth [22][24] Question: Confidence in increasing annual guidance - The increase in guidance is supported by strong first-half results, positive shipment trends, and a resilient commercial environment [29][30] Question: Strategic fit of Quickrete assets - The acquired assets are seen as high-quality, particularly in crushed stone, and align with the company's strategic focus on targeted geographies [36][40] Question: Pricing dynamics and future expectations - Management noted that pricing remains solid, with no significant mix headwinds observed, and anticipates continued pricing strength into 2026 [46][48] Question: Focus on Magnesia business and future acquisitions - The Magnesia business is expected to remain an important part of the company's portfolio, with potential for bolt-on acquisitions in the future [110][111] Question: Land purchases and their strategic implications - The company is focusing on adjacent land purchases to expand existing operations rather than pursuing greenfield opportunities [115][117]

Core Insights - Martin Marietta reported revenue of $1.81 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, reflecting a 2.7% increase year-over-year, while EPS rose to $5.43 from $5.26 in the previous year [1] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.82 billion, resulting in a surprise of -0.33%, whereas the EPS exceeded expectations by 2.07% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Average unit sales price for Aggregates was $23.21 per ton, slightly below the estimated $23.24 per ton [4] - Total shipments for Aggregates were 52,700 KTon, compared to the average estimate of 52,885.09 KTon [4] - Cement shipments totaled 500 KTon, below the estimated 513.84 KTon [4] - Asphalt shipments were 2,300 KTon, compared to the estimate of 2,533.60 KTon [4] - Ready mixed concrete shipments were 1,200 KCuYd, below the estimate of 1,266.20 KCuYd [4] Revenue Breakdown - Total revenues for Building Materials - Cement and ready mixed concrete were $245 million, below the average estimate of $278.59 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 6.1% [4] - Total revenues for Building Materials - Asphalt and paving were $228 million, compared to the estimated $254.59 million, reflecting a 6.9% year-over-year decline [4] - Total revenues for Magnesia Specialties were $90 million, exceeding the estimate of $83.52 million, with an 11.1% year-over-year increase [4] - Total revenues for Building Materials - Aggregates were $1.32 billion, slightly below the estimate of $1.33 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 6.3% [4] - Total revenues for Total Building Materials were $1.72 billion, below the average estimate of $1.81 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 2.3% [4] - Interproduct sales for Building Materials were reported at -$72 million, compared to the estimate of -$70.32 million, showing a year-over-year change of +10.8% [4] Profitability Metrics - Gross profit for Building Materials - Aggregates was $430 million, slightly below the average estimate of $439.34 million [4]

Q2 2025 Financial Performance - Revenues reached $1.81 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase[8] - Net earnings attributable to Martin Marietta were $328 million, up 12% year-over-year[8] - Adjusted EBITDA was $630 million, an 8% year-over-year increase, with an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 35%, a 170 bps increase[8] - Aggregates revenues hit an all-time quarterly record of $1.3 billion, a 6% increase[18] - Aggregates gross profit reached a record for the second quarter, with a gross margin of 33%[18] Aggregates Business - Aggregates shipments totaled 53 million tons in Q2 2025, consistent with Q2 2024[11] - Aggregates average selling price (ASP) increased by 7.4% to $23.21 per ton[15] - Aggregates gross profit per ton increased by 10% to $8.16[17] - Aggregates gross profit increased by 9% to $430 million[13] 2025 Guidance - Full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is $2.30 billion, an 11% increase[19] - Full-year 2025 net earnings attributable to Martin Marietta is guided at $1.14 billion, a 43% decrease[19] - Aggregates shipment tons are expected to reach 196 million tons, a 2.5% increase[21] - Aggregates ASP is expected to be $23.38, a 7.3% increase[21] - Aggregates gross profit per ton is expected to be $8.63, a 14% increase[21] - Aggregates gross profit is expected to be $1.69 billion, a 17% increase[21]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - CRH reported total revenues of $10.2 billion for Q2 2025, a 6% increase compared to the prior year, driven by favorable underlying demand and strong contributions from acquisitions [9][10] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $2.5 billion, reflecting a 9% increase year-over-year, with a margin expansion of 70 basis points [10][19] - The company raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $7.5 billion and $7.7 billion, indicating a 10% growth at the midpoint [9][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Americas Materials Solutions saw a 24% increase in total revenues and adjusted EBITDA compared to the prior year, despite adverse weather conditions [11] - Essential Materials reported a 4% increase in revenues, supported by increased volumes and positive pricing momentum in Aggregates and Cement [11] - International Solutions experienced a 13% increase in revenue and a 23% increase in adjusted EBITDA, with significant margin expansion [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Infrastructure, the largest end market for CRH, continues to benefit from state and federal funding, with less than 40% of IIJA highway funding deployed to date [13][30] - The residential sector in the U.S. is expected to remain subdued, while repair and remodel activities are resilient [31][32] - Positive pricing momentum is anticipated across markets, supported by disciplined commercial management [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - CRH is focused on reinvesting in high-growth markets and has allocated approximately $1.7 billion across 19 acquisitions and growth CapEx investments [7][20] - The acquisition of EcoMaterial Technologies is expected to enhance CRH's cementitious growth strategy, significantly increasing its production capacity [23][24] - The company emphasizes a connected portfolio strategy to maximize profitability and operational efficiencies across its business segments [25][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the underlying demand across key markets and noted that backlogs are ahead of the prior year [8][40] - The company anticipates continued strong performance in the second half of the year, driven by favorable weather conditions and robust backlogs [40] - Management highlighted the importance of federal and state funding in driving infrastructure demand, with expectations for a supportive legislative environment for future funding [54][56] Other Important Information - CRH has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.37 per share, representing a 6% increase year-over-year, and has repurchased approximately $800 million in shares so far this year [21][22] - The company has a strong pipeline of growth opportunities and plans to maintain a disciplined capital allocation strategy [34][78] Q&A Session Summary Question: Drivers of the full-year guidance increase - Management noted strong Q2 performance with EBITDA up 9% and margins up 70 basis points, despite challenging weather conditions [37] - Infrastructure remains robust, with significant backlogs and positive momentum in July [40] Question: Expectations for U.S. Cement and aggregates - Underlying aggregate volumes were up 5% and pricing up 4% in Q2, with expectations for mid to high single-digit pricing growth for the full year [45][46] Question: Update on federal infrastructure funding - Management indicated a supportive bipartisan environment for the next highway bill, with a focus on surface transportation [54][56] Question: Performance of Adbri and margin expansion drivers - Adbri has performed well since acquisition, and margin expansion is attributed to tight cost control and operational efficiencies [100]