But Russia's nominal GDP is now $2.2 trillion, about the same level it was in 2013, the year before Russia annexed Crimea.During Putin's first two terms as president from 2000 to 2008, Russia's economy soared to $1.7 trillion from less than $200 billion in 1999.Russia's Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting - an influential research non-profit - said sectors of the economy not connected with the military had contracted by 5.4% since the start of the year. The Center forecasts a major ...

But Russia's nominal GDP is now $2.2 trillion, about the same level it was in 2013, the year before Russia annexed Crimea.During Putin's first two terms as president from 2000 to 2008, Russia's economy soared to $1.7 trillion from less than $200 billion in 1999.Russia's Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting - an influential research non-profit - said sectors of the economy not connected with the military had contracted by 5.4% since the start of the year. The Center forecasts a major ...

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - September 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting the current demand and supply dynamics affecting pricing and margins in various sectors including construction, automotive, and metals [1][2]. Key Points Demand Trends - **End-user orderbooks** have shown a month-over-month (MoM) increase as of mid-September, consistent with seasonal patterns observed in previous years [1]. - **Aggregated demand** is driven by positive growth in sectors such as **automotive**, **battery production**, and **metal fabrication**, alongside mild seasonal increases in **construction** [1]. - Traditional sectors like **white goods**, **property**, and **machinery** are experiencing weaker demand [1]. Supply Disruptions - Ongoing **supply disruptions** are noted, particularly in: - **Lithium Lepidolite** production - A correction in excess **coal** production - Tightness in domestic **copper scrap** supply [1]. - The Chinese government has reaffirmed its policy on supply management (anti-involution) as a long-term strategy, which is expected to support overall commodity pricing and margins [1]. Pricing and Margin Outlook - Current demand for **cement** and **construction steel** is reported to be 1-6% lower year-over-year (YoY), while **copper** and **aluminium** demand is down 5-7% YoY. In contrast, **flat steel** demand has increased by 3% YoY [1]. - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for **aluminium** and **copper**, while **steel**, **coal**, and **lithium** prices have softened, with **cement** prices remaining stable [1]. Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicates that **52%** of respondents in downstream sectors reported an improvement in orderbook trends for August, while **32%** of basic materials producers noted similar improvements [2]. - Conversely, **9%** of downstream respondents and **16%** of basic materials producers indicated a decline in orderbook trends [2]. Additional Insights - The report includes detailed snapshots of downstream demand across various sectors, including infrastructure, property, traditional manufacturing, advanced manufacturing, and exports [7]. - Specific commodity analyses cover **steel**, **coal**, **cement**, **aluminium**, **copper**, and **lithium**, providing insights into their respective demand and pricing trends [7]. Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is currently experiencing a complex interplay of steady demand growth in certain sectors and ongoing supply disruptions, which collectively influence pricing and margin expectations. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing supply and pricing dynamics [1][2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy** and its various sectors, including **fixed asset investment (FAI)**, **industrial production**, **retail sales**, and the **property market**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Growth Momentum Weakening**: - Domestic activity weakened across the board in August, with overall FAI growth declining by **6.3% YoY**. This decline was attributed to weakened infrastructure and manufacturing investment, partly due to the anti-involution campaign [3][4][84]. 2. **Retail Sales and Consumption**: - Retail sales growth edged down to **3.4% YoY** in August, primarily due to a slowdown in sales of products with trade-in subsidies. The growth in household consumption is expected to decelerate further due to soft household income growth and a high base effect from previous subsidies [3][4][108]. 3. **Industrial Production**: - Industrial production growth cooled to **5.2% YoY** in August, down from **5.7% YoY** in July. This was attributed to weak domestic growth momentum and softer export shipments [3][4][94]. 4. **Property Market Decline**: - The property downturn deepened, with property sales growth declining by **10.6% YoY** in August and new starts down by **20.3% YoY**. The average housing prices in 70 cities continued to decline, indicating ongoing weakness in the property sector [3][4][69]. 5. **Inflation Trends**: - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell into deflation at **-0.4% YoY**, driven by weak food prices. The Producer Price Index (PPI) narrowed its contraction to **-2.9% YoY** [3][4][123]. 6. **Need for Policy Support**: - Additional policy support is deemed necessary due to the softening activity in Q3 and expected weakness in Q4. The government is considering measures such as bringing forward local government debt quotas and increasing fiscal support [5][6]. 7. **Future Economic Outlook**: - Q3 GDP growth is expected to be between **4.5-5% YoY**, with further deceleration anticipated in Q4. Full-year growth for 2025 is projected to average **4.7%** [4][6]. Other Important Insights 1. **Credit Growth**: - Total social financing (TSF) credit growth edged down to **8.8% YoY** in August, reflecting weak bank loans and government bonds. New bank lending remained weak, indicating a cautious lending environment [3][4][137]. 2. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - Infrastructure investment is expected to improve slightly, but manufacturing investment may continue to slow due to weak demand and profit margins. The government plans to support infrastructure spending through special bonds [4][84]. 3. **Consumer Behavior**: - Households are accumulating excess savings, indicating cautious sentiment and subdued spending intentions. The household savings rate remains above pre-COVID levels [3][4][108]. 4. **High-Frequency Data**: - Recent high-frequency data showed a rebound in property sales in early September, suggesting some short-term recovery, although overall trends remain negative [3][4][39]. 5. **Policy Measures**: - The government is expected to implement modest fiscal support measures, potentially increasing broad fiscal support by around **0.5% of GDP** [6]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the Chinese economy and the anticipated challenges and policy responses.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy**, particularly its **industrial production**, **fixed asset investment**, **retail sales**, and **property market** performance in August 2023. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Weak Economic Activity**: China's activity data in August showed broad weakness, missing market expectations, with industrial production growth declining to **5.2% year-on-year** from **5.7%** in July, primarily due to weaker-than-expected exports [1][9]. 2. **Fixed Asset Investment Decline**: Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth fell to **-6.8% year-on-year** in August from **-5.2%** in July, marking a new low since March 2020. This decline was attributed to adverse weather, local construction restrictions, a prolonged property downturn, and a lack of urgency from policymakers [1][12]. 3. **Retail Sales Slowdown**: Retail sales growth moderated to **3.4% year-on-year** in August from **3.7%** in July, mainly due to falling online goods sales, particularly in home appliances and communication equipment [1][13]. 4. **Services Sector Performance**: The services industry output index showed better performance, growing **5.6% year-on-year** in August, only slightly down from **5.8%** in July, indicating resilience in the services sector [1][14]. 5. **Property Market Weakness**: The property market continued to show signs of weakness, with new home starts down **20.3% year-on-year** and property sales declining by **10.3%** in volume terms in August [1][15]. 6. **Labor Market Conditions**: The nationwide unemployment rate increased to **5.3%** in August from **5.2%** in July, indicating ongoing labor market challenges [1][17]. 7. **GDP Growth Forecast**: Despite the sluggish domestic demand, the GDP tracking model suggests a slight upside risk to the Q3 real GDP growth forecast of **4.6% year-on-year**, driven by industrial production and services sector performance [1][18]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector-Specific Performance**: The decline in industrial production was led by slower output growth in ferrous metal smelting, power generation, and general equipment industries, which offset gains in non-ferrous smelting [1][9][25]. - **Investment Growth by Sector**: Year-on-year growth in manufacturing, infrastructure, and property investment dropped significantly in August, indicating broad-based weakness across sectors [1][12]. - **Consumer Behavior Trends**: The decline in online sales growth reflects changing consumer behavior, with expectations of further slowdown due to unfavorable base effects [1][13]. - **Policy Implications**: Incremental and targeted easing measures are deemed necessary in the coming quarters to address the ongoing economic challenges, despite the resilient export performance [1][18]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the Chinese economy and its various sectors.

Company Overview - Amrize Ltd (NYSE:AMRZ) is a major producer of building materials, including cement, operating the largest cement plant in the US and controlling the entire production process from reserves to product [4]. Recent Developments - On August 28, Amrize's management announced that it does not endorse a tender offer for the company's outstanding shares by TRC Capital Investment Corporation [1]. - TRC Capital proposed to purchase 2 million ordinary shares at $49.63 per share, which is 4.48% lower than the stock's closing price on August 26 [2]. Financial Performance - Amrize generated $11.7 billion in revenue in 2024, reflecting a 13% compound annual growth rate since 2021 [3]. - The company completed its 100% spin-off from Holcim and began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on June 23, 2025, at approximately $52 per share [3]. Market Position - Analysts consider Amrize one of the best cement stocks to buy, indicating strong market confidence in the company's potential [1].

Industry Overview - Cement is a crucial material in the construction industry and serves as an essential indicator of economic growth, with demand increasing during infrastructure expansion efforts [1] - The US construction materials sector has risen over 23% this year, outperforming the S&P 500, which is up about 12% [1] Market Outlook - Analysts at JPMorgan predict continued momentum in the US construction and materials sector into the second half of the year and through 2026, with a 15% upside potential for sector stocks and a 20% gain for pure US construction stocks [2] - Increased construction volumes are anticipated in the latter half of the year, with 2Q likely being the trough for softer demand trends [2] - Interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are expected to enhance affordability for home purchases and construction projects, further boosting demand for cement [2] Long-term Trends - Factors such as increasing urbanization, infrastructural development, and a shift towards sustainable building practices are expected to support the long-term outlook for cement stocks [3] Company Analysis: CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. - CEMEX is identified as one of the best cement stocks to buy, with a stock upside potential of 5.99% and 18 hedge fund holders [8] - The stock's price target was raised to $10 and $8.60 by BofA Securities, reflecting an updated discounted cash flow analysis based on 2026 projections [8] - CEMEX has seen a 53% increase in stock performance over the past six months, attributed to aggressive cost-saving measures and a focus on generating free cash flow [9] - The new CEO is committed to improving the company's return on invested capital and plans to invest $2 billion in disciplined mergers and acquisitions for growth opportunities [10] - CEMEX aims to provide innovative and sustainable building solutions, focusing on carbon neutrality and resource management [11] Company Analysis: James Hardie Industries PLC - James Hardie is recognized as a top cement stock with a stock upside potential of 36.96% and 32 hedge fund holders [12] - The company renewed its partnership with Green Brick Partners, enhancing collaboration in fiber-cement siding and exterior design solutions through 2028 [12][13] - This exclusive agreement positions James Hardie's products as the preferred choice for new Green Brick projects, reinforcing their commitment to quality and innovation [13][14] - James Hardie is a leader in high-performance building materials, known for its durable fiber cement siding and a range of other exterior and interior solutions [14]

For personal use only WAGNERS INVESTOR PRESENTATION SEPTEMBER 2025 Executive Summary | | ▪ | Wagners Holding Company Limited ("WGN" or the "Company") is undertaking a capital raising of approximately A$30 million by way of an institutional placement | | --- | --- | --- | | | | ("Placement") of new fully paid ordinary shares in the Company ("New Shares"), the ("Offer"). | | Transaction Overview | ▪ | The funds received under the Placement will be used to pursue growth strategies in Construction Materials and ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview Basic Materials - China - **Copper and Gold Prices**: LME copper price increased by 1.1% WoW to US$9,822/t, while the China price rose by 0.6% WoW to RMB79,450/t, driven by expectations of a rate cut [1][33]. - **Aluminum Prices**: LME aluminum price decreased by 0.3% WoW to US$2,618/t, with the China price slightly increasing by 0.1% WoW to RMB20,730/t [1][44]. - **Gold Prices**: COMEX gold spot price rose by 1% WoW to US$3,407/oz [1][52]. - **Lithium Prices**: Average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 5.1% WoW to RMB79.7k/t, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.8% WoW to RMB76.9k/t [1][56]. Steel Industry - **Steel Prices and Margins**: Rebar price decreased by 0.1% WoW to RMB3,266/t, while HRC price increased by 0.3% WoW to RMB3,466/t. Iron ore price rose by 3% WoW due to expectations of a lower Fed rate [2][64]. - **Cash Margins**: Spot rebar cash margin shrank by RMB55/t WoW to -RMB34/t, and HRC cash margin decreased by RMB28/t WoW to -RMB125/t [2][75]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: Finished steel products inventory increased by 1.9% WoW to 14.7 million tons, and apparent consumption rose by 0.6% WoW to 8.6 million tons [2][85]. Cement Industry - **Cement Prices**: Average national cement price increased by 0.35% WoW to RMB327/t, with a notable increase in Ningxia by RMB30/t [3][88]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Nationwide shipment ratio decreased by 0.6ppt WoW to 41.6%, while inventory ratio was at 60.5%, down 1.1ppt WoW [3][21]. Glass and Paper Industries - **Glass Prices**: National average float glass price decreased by 1.34% WoW to RMB1,189/t due to weak demand [3][99]. - **Paper Prices**: Paper price increased by 0.7% WoW to RMB3,481/t, supported by price hikes from paper mills [3][100]. Solar Materials - **Polysilicon Prices**: N-type polysilicon and granular silicon prices increased by RMB1/kg WoW to RMB51/kg and RMB47/kg, respectively [3][110]. - **Solar Glass Prices**: Prices for coated solar glass remained stable at RMB18.8/sqm and RMB11.0/sqm [3][122]. Additional Insights - **Inventory Trends**: Lithium carbonate inventory at smelters decreased by 11% to 52kt, while downstream inventory increased by 13% to 46kt, leading to a total sample lithium carbonate inventory increase of 3.6% MoM to 142kt [1][60]. - **Market Dynamics**: The steel industry is facing pressure from rising iron ore prices, while the cement market shows signs of recovery despite regional demand declines due to environmental inspections [2][88]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance and trends across various sectors within the basic materials industry in China.

Summary of Anhui Conch Cement (0914.HK) Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: Anhui Conch Cement - **Stock Codes**: 0914.HK (Hong Kong), 600585.SS (Shanghai) - **Market Cap**: HK$126.8 billion / $16.3 billion - **Industry**: Basic Materials, specifically Cement Production Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Net Profit**: Rmb4.6 billion, EPS of Rmb0.874/share, up 33% YoY [1] - **Recurring Net Profit**: Rmb5.1 billion, up 32% YoY, excluding one-offs [1] - **Interim Dividend**: Proposed Rmb0.24/share, 27% payout ratio, compared to nil in previous interims [1] - **Sales Volume**: 126 million tons of self-produced cement, flat YoY, outperforming national market decline of -4.3% [23] - **Gross Profit from Cement**: Increased by 34% YoY, driven by higher unit profit in domestic and overseas markets [23] Earnings Estimates and Projections - **2025E Recurring Earnings**: Revised down by 13% due to persistent low cement margins in China [2] - **2026E and 2027E Earnings Growth**: Expected growth of 34% and 3% respectively [2] - **Price Target**: Revised to HK$31.00 / Rmb32.00, implying a 2026E P/E of 10.4x [2] - **Free Cash Flow (FCF)**: Expected to be Rmb6.7-12.7 billion in 2025-26E, with a FCF yield of 5.5-10.5% [22] Operational Insights - **Cement Operations**: Contributed 84% of total gross profit, with improved overseas margins from pricing recovery in Uzbekistan and Cambodia [23] - **Aggregate and RMC Operations**: Gross profit above expectations, with RMC sales up 3% YoY [24] - **Cost Management**: Total SG&A better than expected due to lower administrative costs [25] - **Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow increased by 21% YoY in 1H25A, with slight improvements in working capital management [26] Market and Industry Outlook - **Cement Pricing**: Expected to improve in 2026E and 2027E due to industry control on unauthorized capacity [2][38] - **Risks**: 1. Weaker-than-expected property and infrastructure demand affecting utilization and pricing [40] 2. Slower exit from unauthorized cement capacity leading to depressed prices [40] 3. Increased competition and potential new production lines affecting market share [40] 4. Rising raw material costs impacting margins [40] Valuation Metrics - **P/E Ratios**: 2025E at 11.4x, 2026E at 7.9x [13] - **P/B Ratios**: 2025E at 0.6x, 2026E at 0.6x [13] - **Dividend Yield**: Expected to be 4.3% in 2025E and 6.5% in 2026E [22] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain Buy rating on Anhui Conch Cement, with an attractive risk-reward profile based on potential margin improvements and strong cash flow generation [2][38]