5 January 2026 | 8:20PM HKT Equity Research CHINA BASIC MATERIALS 2026 outlook - supply to set the path apart 2) Anti-involution (on oversupplied segments) remains a multi-year strategic policy effort. Potential changes in capacity management that drive the next 10% improvement in industry capacity utilization could lead to highly leveraged earnings revisions from where we are. We see meaningful progress in the capacity work in cement and coal, but slower than expected in steel. We expect a more stable year ...

Core Perspective - The EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) aims to enhance the competitiveness of European manufacturers against non-EU companies with less stringent emissions regulations, with China being the first to threaten retaliation [1][4]. Group 1: Mechanism Overview - The CBAM was created to address the high costs associated with the EU's stringent emission-reduction standards, which have made European products like steel and cement less competitive compared to cheaper imports from countries like China [2][3]. - The mechanism imposes a price on carbon dioxide emissions from goods produced in exporting countries, establishing default emission values and benchmarks for specific products [6]. Group 2: Reactions from Major Exporters - China's Ministry of Commerce criticized the CBAM as "unfair" and "discriminatory," indicating that it would take necessary measures to counteract what it perceives as unfair trade restrictions [4]. - The CBAM is unpopular among major exporters to the EU, but it has been effective in encouraging countries to develop or expand their carbon pricing initiatives, marking a significant policy shift for the EU [5]. Group 3: Implications for Competitiveness - The implementation of the CBAM is intended to ensure that cheaper imported steel, cement, and electricity are not as competitively priced, thereby protecting European industries [3]. - China's existing carbon market, established in 2021, complicates the situation as it seeks to maintain its competitiveness in the face of the new EU regulations [5].

Investors might want to bet on Cemex (CX) , as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). An upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices -- has triggered this rating change.A company's changing earnings picture is at the core of the Zacks rating. The system tracks the Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus measure of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years.Individual investors often f ...

Accessible version Basic Materials - China Copper/Aluminum/Gold Lifted; Ally Margin Slides; Steel Prices Rose Industry Overview Metals: Copper/Ally/Gold Lift; Lithium& Uranium advance US Nov'25 CPI came in below expectations, boosting prospects for a rate cut in Mar'26. LME copper gained 2.0% WoW to US$11,764/t, while China's price fell 1.4% to RMB 92,640/t. LME aluminum edged up 1.3% WoW to US$2,872/t, whereas China's price slipped 1.0% to RMB 21,820/t, squeezing margins by RMB 170/t WoW to RMB 5,915/t. CO ...

Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In "long context," investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even though momentum is a popular stock characte ...

Group 1 - A Swiss court has accepted a legal complaint against Holcim, a global cement manufacturer, regarding its insufficient efforts to reduce carbon emissions linked to global warming [1] - The complaint alleges that Holcim is not doing enough to address its carbon footprint, which is a significant concern in the cement industry due to its high emissions [1] - This legal action reflects a growing trend of accountability for companies in the construction materials sector regarding their environmental impact [1]

Company Overview - Cementos Pacasmayo (NYSE:CPAC) is a leading cement company in Peru, focusing on the production and distribution of cement, concrete, and other construction materials, primarily in the northern region of Peru [1] Market Performance - The current market price of CPAC is $10.48, reflecting a modest increase of 1.95% or $0.20, with a trading range today between $10.23 and $10.69, indicating some volatility [3] - Over the past year, CPAC has experienced a high of $11.30 and a low of $5.10, showcasing its potential for growth [3] - The company's market capitalization is approximately $897.5 million, with a trading volume of 49,293 shares [3] Investment Outlook - Scotiabank has set a price target of $12.80 for CPAC, suggesting a potential increase of approximately 22.14% from its current price [2][5] - Zacks Investment Research identifies CPAC as a potential interest for value investors, supported by its strong performance in the "Value" category of Zacks' Style Scores system [2][4][5]

Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In "long context," investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.While many investors like to look for momentum i ...

Core Insights - Inflationary pressures are moderating, leading to a return of price stability in markets, which is beneficial for many companies as they face lower input costs and improving profit margins heading into 2026 [1][2] Sector Analysis Consumer Staples - The consumer staples sector is poised for growth as key commodity input costs related to agricultural products, such as dairy, sugar, vegetable oils, and grains, decline [3] - Food processors and packaged-goods manufacturers are regaining margins that were previously compressed due to high input inflation [4] Capital Goods and Manufacturing - Capital goods and manufacturing companies are expected to benefit from easing inflation, particularly those that consume energy and commodities, such as chemical and heavy machinery producers [5] - Lower prices for petroleum-based inputs and industrial metals are reducing project costs and improving returns on new capital investments [5] Airlines and Logistics - Airlines and logistics companies are classic beneficiaries of easing price pressures, as fuel costs, a major operating expense, are declining [6] - Companies like Delta Air Lines and FedEx are well-positioned for margin expansion as economic activity normalizes, with fuel savings directly impacting their bottom lines [7] Company Highlights United Natural Foods (UNFI) - UNFI is regaining margins as inflation cools, with a projected revenue increase of 1% and a significant EPS increase of 187.3% for fiscal 2026 compared to the previous year [10] - The company has improved its gross margin by approximately 20 basis points year over year due to better procurement conditions [9] FedEx Corp. (FDX) - FedEx is undergoing a cost realignment initiative that resulted in $2.2 billion in annual cost savings, positioning it for margin recovery as inflation pressures fade [11] - The company is expected to see a revenue increase of 4.6% for fiscal 2026, with operating margin expansion driven by lower fuel expenses and structural cost reductions [12] LATAM Airlines Group (LTM) - LATAM Airlines is benefiting from a lean cost structure and improved air travel demand, with a projected revenue increase of 10.1% and EPS increase of 17.8% for 2026 [16] - The company achieved an adjusted operating margin of 18.1% in Q3 2025, supported by a decline in jet fuel expenses [15] Conclusion - The analysis indicates that companies in consumer staples, logistics, and transportation sectors are well-positioned to leverage declining input costs to restore margins and enhance financial performance as inflation eases [19]

Core Insights - The construction materials sector is experiencing growth due to increased public infrastructure spending, but not all companies are benefiting equally [1][20] - Martin Marietta and Vulcan Materials are outperforming Amrize in capturing infrastructure-related opportunities [15][20] Infrastructure Spending Context - Federal infrastructure legislation is driving demand for construction materials, with an addressable market exceeding $200 billion annually [2] - Public construction activity is expected to remain strong through 2025, sustaining demand for raw materials [2] Company Profiles - Amrize operates over 1,000 sites and generated nearly $12 billion in annual revenue, focusing on both infrastructure and residential markets [5] - Vulcan Materials specializes in aggregates with a revenue of $7.88 billion, utilizing an asset-light model [7] - Martin Marietta operates across 26 states and generated $6.90 billion in revenue, emphasizing an aggregates-led platform [8] Performance Comparison - Vulcan Materials reported a 12% volume growth in aggregates shipments and a 5% increase in selling prices, resulting in a gross profit of $612 million [10] - Martin Marietta achieved record revenues and margins, with aggregates revenues up 17% to $1.46 billion and an operating margin of 27.9% [11] - Amrize's revenue grew 6.6% to $3.68 billion, but it missed earnings estimates and faced margin pressures due to equipment outages [12] Valuation Metrics - Martin Marietta trades at the highest multiples in the sector, with 32x earnings and 5.41x sales, reflecting strong operational performance [13] - Vulcan Materials has a valuation of 34x earnings, while Amrize trades at 28x earnings, indicating market skepticism about its growth potential [13] Management Insights - Martin Marietta's CEO emphasized the company's strong growth foundation and operational execution [14] - Vulcan Materials' CEO highlighted the benefits of their strategic disciplines leading to strong earnings growth [14] - Amrize's CEO focused on long-term positioning despite current challenges [14] Conclusion - Martin Marietta and Vulcan Materials are effectively capitalizing on infrastructure spending through strong volume growth and margin expansion, while Amrize faces execution challenges [15][20]