Market Trends & Sentiment - Tech sector performance is bifurcated, with Alphabet and Apple leading while the rest of the complex lags, indicating potential dispersion in investor sentiment [1][3][4] - Energy and materials sectors have been leading recently, though their impact is limited due to the large size of the tech sector, suggesting a healthy rotation [3] - Large-cap stocks are favored over small-cap stocks [4] Economic Outlook & Jobs Report - The worst of the economy was likely a couple of months prior, coinciding with tariff uncertainties [12] - A jobs report significantly above or below the estimated 75,000 by 10,000 could trigger a market move [11][12] - A much better than expected jobs report might reduce expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts [13] - The Federal Reserve is still expected to cut rates in the coming weeks, but potentially not as many times as anticipated over the next 16 months [13] Market Performance & Seasonality - S&P typically pulls back about 2% on average in September based on the last decade's data, indicating seasonality [6] - After the S&P has been up over 25% over 100 days, the average return after one month is 1%, and after three months is approximately 6% [6] - Historically, three months after a similar market condition, the market has been higher 11 out of 11 times, and a year later, up an average of 13% [7] - The strength seen off the lows is inconsistent with a bear market [8] Bond Market & Credit Conditions - The 30-year yield is up around 5%, the highest in a long time, with long-term yields breaking out [9] - Credit markets are showing virtually no signs of stress, with no warnings in high yield or junk bonds, and credit spreads not broadening out [9][10]

Your next guest says a new record could be coming. Tim Orbanowitz is chief investment strategist at Innovator Capital Management. Tim, good to have you on set. >> Great to be with you, Brian. >> Man, we've been waiting for the small cap breakout for a long time. Hasn't It's happened a little bit, but we're still not at a record high. Should we be bullish? >> I think there are catalysts, Brian. And and if you look at this and take a step back, we we've had this valuation gap, small caps to large caps, for a ...

really steering the index the way it is. Other indexes. >> Okay.Mike Santoli thank you. We'll see you later this hour. Let's broaden our market conversation though and bring in Truist Wealth Co-Chief investment officer Keith Lerner and Hennion and Walsh asset manager, Management president and CIO Kevin Moen.Great to have you both here. Kevin, you're on set. I'm going to kick this conversation off with you.We've had a torrid run since the April lows. What do you like here. Do you stick with tech. Do you look ...

Investment Strategy - The industry suggests diversifying portfolios to mitigate the impact of specific stocks, particularly Microsoft and Meta [1][3] - The industry observes small-cap stocks in the US are at their cheapest valuation relative to large-cap stocks since June 2000 [1] - The industry notes small caps have outperformed large caps in the 25 years since 2000 [1] Market Valuation - The industry acknowledges valuation isn't a perfect timing tool but tends to work long term [2] - The S&P 600 is expected to grow more than the S&P 500 in the next 12 months [2] - The S&P 600 trades at 146% times earnings versus 25 or 23 times earnings for the S&P 500 [2]