SCARLET: WELCOME TO "ETF IQ." I AM SCARLET FU. KATIE: AND I AM KATIE GREIFELD. SCARLET: KATIE: LET'S GET TO THE BIGGEST STORIES RIGHT NOW.STOCKS WAVERING AS THEY PREPARE FOR NVIDIA EARNINGS AND THE DELAYED JOBS REPORT SET TO BE RELEASED LATER THIS WEEK. SCARLET: WE WILL SPEAK TO JOHN MAIER OF JPMORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT ON THE FOURTH QUARTER GUIDANCE ON ETF'S. KATIE: PROJECT GRAYSCALE TESTS THE MARKETS AS IT FILES.ALL THAT AND MORE COMING UP. ERIC BALCHUNAS IS HERE WITH US NOW LOOKING AT THE FLOWS. WHAT HAVE ...

Investors and dealers are trading municipal bonds at a record pace this year, driven by strong government sales and a burst of volatility tied to tariffs and interest rate moves https://t.co/V5ctkw9p4G ...

Municipal Bond Market Overview - The municipal bond market saw $16 billion in proposals on the ballots this year, a smaller amount compared to the $80 billion during the presidential election year [1] - The market is experiencing heavy supply, with municipalities, airports, and transportation agencies issuing significant deals, leading to an almost 13% increase in supply compared to the same period last year [4] - There's a substantial need for infrastructure investment across the country [4] Denver, Colorado Bond Approval - Denver, Colorado had a $950 million bond package approved by voters [2] - Denver will use the $950 million to fund infrastructure projects, fix gardens, and build new cultural centers [2] - The mayor of Denver emphasized the importance of this vote due to falling federal funding and economic uncertainty, enabling the city to address critical infrastructure needs [2] Voter Sentiment and Macroeconomic Factors - Despite general approval of such proposals, macroeconomic changes and financial uncertainty might be influencing voters' decisions [6] - It was surprising to see $12 billion approved, given potential voter hesitancy due to economic concerns [6] Future Market Focus - Airports and transit agencies will be a key focus for infrastructure investments [5] - Monitoring how schools, transit agencies, and hospital systems utilize these bonds for projects is crucial [5]

Core Insights - J.P. Morgan Asset Management has merged the JPMorgan National Municipal Income Fund into the JPMorgan Municipal ETF (JMUB), making it the largest active muni bond ETF in the U.S. with $5.8 billion in assets under management (AUM) [1][2][3] Muni Bond ETF Landscape - The merger signifies a growing trend among asset managers to adopt the ETF structure for fixed income products, which has historically lagged behind equity offerings [2] - JMUB charges an 18 basis point fee and focuses on actively investing in investment-grade municipal bonds to provide tax-free income, achieving a return of 5.3% over the last three years [2][4] Market Impact - The newly merged ETF ranks as the fourth largest active fixed income ETF, contributing to a total U.S. ETF AUM exceeding a quarter of a trillion dollars [3] - The merger is seen as a significant advancement for municipal bond investors, offering a more efficient and cost-effective way to access municipal markets [4]

Core Insights - The fixed income ETF market is experiencing significant growth, with inflows surpassing $325 billion as of mid-October, indicating increasing investor interest and a variety of options available [1] - Market uncertainty is prevalent not only in equities but also in fixed income, primarily driven by interest rate fluctuations, with over 90% of forecasts predicting two rate cuts by the end of 2025 [2][3] Fixed Income Market Trends - Investors are advised to consider intermediate bonds to balance income generation and mitigate rate risk as interest rates are expected to decline [4][5] - Municipal bonds are gaining traction due to strong credit fundamentals and attractive yields, alongside the benefit of federal tax-free income [5][6] Investment Strategies - Active fixed income ETFs are becoming increasingly popular, with products like Invesco's Variable Rate Investment Grade ETF (VRIG) offering diversified yield opportunities across various credit markets [8][9] - The Invesco Equal Weight 0-30 Year Treasury ETF (GOVI) provides nuanced exposure to Treasuries through a laddering approach, enhancing portfolio flexibility [10] Market Evolution - The ETF marketplace is continuously evolving, presenting new opportunities for income-producing funds tailored to the current uncertain environment [11]

Market Performance & Outlook - S&P 500 上涨 35%（tariff crash low 后的六个月内）[1] - 历史数据显示，牛市持续三年后，平均持续时间为八年，可能还有五年增长期[2] - 在美联储暂停降息六个月或更长时间后的八个不同案例中，股市在接下来的 6 个月内上涨约 8%，在接下来的 12 个月内上涨约 15%[4] - 预计 2025 年市场将持续上涨[5] - 标普 500 的当前估值高于其 5 年和 10 年的平均水平[9] Interest Rate & Fed Policy - 市场乐观地认为美联储今年将再次降息两次[6] AI Infrastructure Investment - 英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋预计到本十年末，人工智能基础设施投资可能达到 3 到 4 万亿美元，目前约为 6000 亿美元[6][7] Investment Opportunities - 关注人工智能基础设施和航空航天与国防领域[7] - 考虑多元化投资于被低估的市场领域，例如医疗保健领域的小型生物科技公司，因为并购活动将会增加[10][11] - 市政债券可能是一个良好的多元化投资领域，因为供应减少，需求增加[13][14] - 国际股票的表现继续优于美国股票[14]

The steady drum beat of federal funding threats totaling billions of dollars is renewing municipal investors’ qualms about lower-rated state and local borrowers https://t.co/9zhOe57p09 ...

Competition is heating up in the rapidly growing arena of municipal-bond ETFs https://t.co/2og0PCqtBR ...

Fixed Income Strategy - The firm favors credit over duration in fixed income, particularly municipal bonds due to strong fundamentals like strong state rainy day funds and high savings rates [2][3] - The firm also likes senior loans and emerging market debt, now that some of the liberation day issues are behind us [3] - The firm prefers higher quality credit, such as senior loans, which have historically performed well during rate cut cycles [4] Economic Outlook - Employment markets are showing signs of economic slowdown [6] - The firm is focused on the government shutdown, the pace of Fed rate cuts, and third-quarter earnings as key factors influencing investment decisions [6] - The potential tail risks of the government shutdown include furlowed jobs becoming eliminated jobs, which could impact the job market [6] - The lack of economic data due to the government shutdown may hinder the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate cuts [7] Equity Market Perspective - Third-quarter earnings are expected to be strong, with consensus estimates of 88% year-over-year growth, potentially led by tech stocks [8] - US markets are trading at a premium versus history, justified by tech and AI [9] - The structural trend of artificial intelligence is alive and well and here to stay and that will drive US stocks higher [16] - AI companies are larger and more profitable this time compared to the late 90s, with corporations integrating AI into their workforce to increase productivity and revenues [15][16] - The S&P year to date is up in the mid-teens, and usually markets end higher by the time the year ends [17]

Investment Flows - Municipal-bond funds experienced the largest cash inflow since at least 2007 [1]