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美银:The Flow Show-My herd is my bond
美银· 2025-08-24 14:47
Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment sentiment with the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at 6.0, down from 6.1, suggesting a cautious approach to market conditions [7][41]. Core Insights - There has been a record inflow of $97 billion to global bond funds over the past four weeks, with year-to-date (YTD) inflows for bonds annualizing at a record $700 billion, primarily driven by investment-grade (IG) bonds [1][3]. - The report highlights significant inflows to IG bonds, totaling $57.4 billion over the past four weeks, marking the largest inflow since July 2020 [2][11]. - In contrast, there have been notable outflows from European equities, with a $2.3 billion outflow, the largest in four months, and a continued trend of outflows from UK equities for 18 consecutive weeks [2][17]. Summary by Sections Asset Class Flows - Equities experienced a $3.0 billion inflow, with $10.4 billion inflow to ETFs and $7.3 billion outflow from mutual funds [16]. - Bonds saw inflows of $23.0 billion over the past week, continuing a streak of 17 weeks of positive inflows [17]. - Precious metals recorded a slight inflow of $0.1 billion over the past two weeks [16]. Investment Strategies - BofA private clients have allocated 64.1% of their assets under management (AUM) to stocks, 18.1% to bonds, and 10.7% to cash, indicating a strong preference for equities [3][29]. - The report notes that BofA private clients have been buying industrials, high-yield (HY) bonds, and bank loan ETFs while selling energy, healthcare, and staples [3][23]. Market Indicators - The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator reflects a neutral market sentiment, suggesting that investor sentiment is currently balanced, with no extreme bullish or bearish positions [41]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators, including payrolls and inflation data, which could influence market dynamics [1].
X @Ansem
Ansem 🧸💸· 2025-08-22 00:09
where are the oldhead traders who diversified out of crypto into boring things like bonds & a hefty stocks portfolioid like to hear their opinions on things who do i need to host on a spaces or smth ...
5 Securities & Exchanges Stocks to Track as Industry Dynamics Evolve
ZACKS· 2025-08-19 18:50
Core Insights - The Zacks Securities and Exchanges industry is benefiting from a diversified product portfolio, increased trading volumes, and the growing adoption of crypto assets, which is expected to enhance revenues for key players like S&P Global, Intercontinental Exchange, CME Group, Nasdaq Inc., and Cboe Global Markets [1][2] - The industry is focusing on non-trading revenue sources, including market technology and information services, to create stable cash flows and reduce reliance on trading income [4][5] Industry Overview - The Zacks Securities and Exchanges industry includes companies that operate electronic marketplaces for trading stocks, options, bonds, and commodity contracts, generating revenue from fees and providing data services [2] - The industry is experiencing increased adoption of crypto assets, but faces challenges due to regulatory compliance [2] Trends Shaping the Industry - Trading volume is driven by volatility, with a projected market size of $49.6 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 12.1% [3] - Companies are diversifying into recurring revenue sources to stabilize income amidst fluctuating market volumes [4] - Mergers and acquisitions are on the rise, helping companies expand their market reach and product offerings [5] - Continuous investment in technology, particularly AI and blockchain, is enhancing operational efficiency and competitiveness [6][7] Industry Performance - The Zacks Securities and Exchanges industry ranks 24, placing it in the top 10% of Zacks industries, indicating strong near-term prospects [8][9] - The industry has outperformed the broader Zacks Finance sector and the S&P 500, gaining 15% year-to-date compared to 10.7% and 9.5% respectively [12] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 26.32X, higher than the S&P 500's 22.85X and the sector's 16.89X [15] Company Highlights - **Nasdaq**: Focused on maximizing non-trading revenue and technology services, with a projected EPS growth of 17.4% and 11.5% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [19][20] - **S&P Global**: Positioned to benefit from growing demand for business information services, with EPS growth estimates of 9.2% and 11% for 2025 and 2026 [22][23] - **Intercontinental Exchange**: A leading operator with a strong portfolio and expected EPS growth of 15% and 10.8% for 2025 and 2026 [25][26] - **CME Group**: The largest futures exchange, focusing on expanding product offerings, with EPS growth estimates of 8.6% and 3.8% for 2025 and 2026 [28][29] - **Cboe Global Markets**: Expanding product lines and geographic reach, with EPS growth projections of 11.5% and 5.9% for 2025 and 2026 [32][33]
华西证券:8月债市或迎高光时刻
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-06 23:52
每经AI快讯,华西证券(002926)指出,8月债市或迎高光时刻。一是中美的关税谈判结果或重新升级 为资产定价的主要变量;二是7月PMI和票据市场数据显示,需求端仍然偏弱,同时短期政策刺激预期 正在回撤;三是商品行情降温,也对债市形成利好;四是8月资金利率容易成为年内低点;五是机构资 金可能回流债市。 ...
Euronext announces the cancellation of repurchased shares       
Globenewswire· 2025-08-05 14:54
Core Points - Euronext has announced the cancellation of 2,692,979 ordinary shares following the completion of its €300 million share repurchase program on March 10, 2025 [1] - The cancellation aligns with the company's intention to reduce capital, as stated in the announcement of the share repurchase program on November 7, 2024, and was approved by shareholders during the Annual General Meeting on May 15, 2025 [1] - After the cancellation, Euronext's issued share capital is now €162,468,044.80, divided into 101,542,528 ordinary shares [2] Company Overview - Euronext is the leading European capital market infrastructure, covering the entire capital markets value chain, including listing, trading, clearing, settlement, and custody [4] - As of June 2025, Euronext's regulated exchanges host nearly 1,800 listed issuers with a market capitalization of €6.3 trillion, making it a significant player in European equity trading [5] - Euronext handles 25% of European lit equity trading and offers a diverse range of products, including equities, FX, ETFs, bonds, derivatives, commodities, and indices [5]
固定收益部市场日报-20250805
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-08-05 10:20
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the IG space opened 5 - 10bps wider with a cautious tone, and various bonds had different price movements. For example, TH bank BBLTB sub - curve and TW lifers gradually recovered and closed 1 - 3bps wider. In Chinese properties, GRNLGR 28 - 31s dropped 1.0 - 2.9pts [1]. - This morning, MTRC Perps were up 0.2pt, ADSEZ 31 - 41s and ADGREG 42s rose 0.6 - 2pts, while CKINF 4/4.2 Perps decreased 1pt [2]. - AVIC launched a tender offer and consent solicitation for its USD300mn AVICCP 2.375 02/09/26 at par, and is soliciting consent from bondholders for two modifications [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - The IG space opened 5 - 10bps wider. TH bank BBLTB sub - curve and TW lifers closed 1 - 3bps wider. Lower - beta papers with 4.5% yield or below and front - end papers were heavily traded. FRESHK 26 - 28s had a spread change of 7bps tighter to 3bps wider. In Macau gaming, different bonds had price changes ranging from unchanged to +1pt. Among greater China higher - beta credits, Perps moved higher. There were block selling on FRNs of China leasing/securities houses and two - way flows on EU/Japan banks FRNs. Yankee AT1s recovered. In Chinese properties, GRNLGR, LNGFOR, and VNKRLE bonds dropped, while LIFUNGs rose. In the SEA, MEDCIJ 28 - 29s were unchanged to 0.1pt lower, and VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.2pts higher [1]. Analyst Comments - AVIC launched a tender offer and consent solicitation for AVICCP 2.375 02/09/26 at par. It failed to furnish audited FY24 financial statements and expects to be unable to provide unaudited 1H25 financial statements on time. It is soliciting consent for two modifications: removing the financial statement requirement and adding an early redemption option. The offer expires on 15 Aug'25, and two bondholder meetings will be held on 26 Aug'25. The tender offer settlement is on 29 Aug'25. The resolutions are binding if passed and the eligibility condition is met. The tender offer can be an opportunity for investors to switch to other Chinese IG names [6][7][9]. Macro News Recap - On Monday, S&P (+1.47%), Dow (+1.34%), and Nasdaq (+1.95%) were higher, and UST yield was lower with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.69%/3.75%/4.22%/4.80% [5]. Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers included GWFOOD 3.258 10/29/30 (price 86.3, change 2.4), WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 (price 92.8, change 1.3), etc. Top Underperformers included GRNLGR 6.9 02/12/29 (price 20.1, change - 2.9), GRNLGR 8 1/4 01/22/31 (price 20.1, change - 2.9), etc. [4]. Offshore Asia New Issues - **Priced**: No Offshore Asia New Issues Priced Today [12]. - **Pipeline**: Licheng International Development plans a 3 - year issue with a 5.5% pricing and is unrated. Macquarie Bank plans an 11NC10 issue with a pricing of T + 170 and has an issue rating of A3/BBB+/BBB+ [13]. News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 85 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB66bn. Month - to - date, 130 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB149bn, a 4.4% yoy increase. S&P revised the outlook of Adani Electricity Mumbai to stable from negative, affirmed BBB - rating [14]. - S&P revised the outlook of Adani Green Energy RG2 to stable from negative, affirmed BB+ rating; revised the outlook of Adani Ports to positive from negative, affirmed BBB - rating. Agile plans to deliver a preliminary restructuring proposal to offshore creditors in 3Q25. Ant Group will exit India's Paytm by selling its 5.84% stake for up to INR38bn (cUSD434mn). Road King bondholder group can block revised consent solicitation. SK Telecom will help develop a South Korean ChatGPT challenger. SK On will focus on cutting - edge technology [21].
【固收】如何理解债券与票据市场利率的背离?——2025年7月30日利率债观察(张旭)
光大证券研究· 2025-07-31 23:04
Core Viewpoint - The divergence between medium to long-term bond yields and short-term bill rates reflects the current credit supply and demand dynamics, with recent declines in bill rates indicating a stronger influence from credit attributes rather than funding factors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Bond and Bill Market Analysis - Since July 22, there has been a notable divergence between medium to long-term bond yields and short-term bill rates, with the 10Y government bond yield at 1.72%, up 4 basis points from July 21, while the 3M bill discount rate fell to 0.50%, down 71 basis points [3]. - Bill market rates exhibit both funding and credit attributes; recent declines in bill rates suggest a stronger influence from credit attributes, as evidenced by the slight increase in DR007 to 1.52%, up 3 basis points from July 21 [3][4]. - The volatility of bill market rates tends to be greater in the latter part of the month, indicating banks' adjustments in credit supply, which may reflect increased credit issuance in the latter half of the month [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications and Future Outlook - Investors are currently trading on the "anti-involution" narrative and its impact on commodity prices, which may affect the attractiveness of bond assets [4][5]. - The sustainability of the "anti-involution" logic depends on the breadth of rising commodity prices and their impact on real economic growth, with a stronger influence on PPI growth compared to CPI growth [4]. - In the medium term (one to two quarters), the probability of bond yield declines is greater than increases, given ongoing economic challenges and the need to lower overall financing costs [5]. - In the short term (one to two weeks), bond yields are expected to decline, as the market has passed the peak pressure of the current adjustment phase [5].
Euronext publishes Q2 2025 results
Globenewswire· 2025-07-31 15:45
Core Insights - Euronext achieved record revenue and income of €465.8 million in Q2 2025, reflecting a 12.8% increase year-over-year, driven by organic growth and acquisitions [1][8][26] - The company reported a strong adjusted EBITDA of €297.3 million, up 15.8% compared to Q2 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 63.8% [9][29][30] - Euronext's diversified business model allowed it to capture favorable market conditions, resulting in five consecutive quarters of double-digit topline growth [8][9] Financial Performance - Total revenue and income for Q2 2025 was €465.8 million, a 12.8% increase from €412.9 million in Q2 2024 [3][26] - Underlying operational expenses excluding depreciation and amortization (D&A) were €168.4 million, reflecting a 7.9% increase year-over-year [28][26] - Adjusted net income rose to €204.4 million, a 23.8% increase compared to €165.2 million in Q2 2024, with adjusted EPS at €2.02, up 27.0% [27][33] Revenue Breakdown - Securities Services revenue grew to €86.2 million, a 6.5% increase, driven by higher assets under custody and settlement activity [5][16] - Capital Markets and Data Solutions revenue increased to €165.4 million, up 12.0%, supported by the expansion of Advanced Data Solutions and strong performance in Corporate and Investor Solutions [5][18] - FICC Markets revenue reached €87.7 million, a 20.1% increase, driven by record performance in fixed income trading and clearing [15][22] Strategic Initiatives - Euronext is expanding its presence in the Nordics through the acquisition of Admincontrol, enhancing its subscription-based revenue and SaaS offerings [14][11] - The company announced a voluntary share exchange offer to acquire all shares of HELLENIC EXCHANGES-ATHEX STOCK EXCHANGE S.A. (ATHEX), valued at approximately €412.8 million [41][42] - Euronext aims to integrate European capital markets and expects the ATHEX acquisition to deliver €12 million in annual run-rate cash synergies by the end of 2028 [43][44] Market Position - Euronext's market share in cash equity trading averaged 63.5% in Q2 2025, with average daily cash trading volumes of €13.4 billion, up 21.2% year-over-year [24][25] - The company is well-positioned to become the clearing house of choice for European repo markets, supported by strategic partnerships and initiatives [10][11] - Euronext's total assets under custody reached €7.34 trillion, reflecting a 4.5% increase compared to the end of Q2 2024 [16]
固定收益部市场日报-20250730
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-30 07:29
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating on the Adani complex [11] Core Viewpoints - The expectations of further tender offers from Adani Ports should support the near - term performance of ADSEZs, but the gradual resumption of funding access and potential for more tender offers are fairly priced, so a neutral stance is maintained on the Adani complex [10][11] Summary by Relevant Sections Trading Desk Comments - In KR, HYNMTR/LGENSO Float 30s were 1 - 3bps tighter; in Chinese IGs, BABA 31/MEITUA 30 widened 1bp, BABA 47 - 61s were 1.0 - 1.5pts higher [1] - In financials, MIZUHO/SUMIBK Float 30 - 31s were unchanged to 1bps tighter, HSBC/STANLN Float 30 - 31s were under small selling and closed unchanged to 1bp wider [1] - In insurance, SHIKON/NSINTW 34 - 35s were 1 - 2bps tighter on PB buying, CATLIF 34 widened 1bp on small selling [1] - In HK, DAHSIN 33/SHCMBK 33/BNKEA 34 were 5 - 11bps tighter, LASUDE 26 was 1.8pts higher; REGH 6.5/HYSAN 7.2 Perps lowered 0.6 - 0.9pt [1] - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29s and ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.1 - 0.6pt lower, ROADKD Perps were 0.1 - 0.2pt higher [1] - In SE Asia, VLLPM 29 rebounded 2.1pts, closed 0.9pt higher WTD [1] Morning Updates - ZHOSHK 28 tightened another 8bps; LGENSO 27 - 35s tightened 8 - 11bps after media reported LG Energy's contract with Tesla [2] - SHIKON/NSINTW 34 - 35s widened 1 - 2bps [2] - ADSEZ: USD438mn validly tendered as of the early tender deadline, ADSEZ 27 - 41s up 0.2 - 0.6pts [2][3] - LIFUNG priced 3.5NC2 USD300mn bond at 98.89 to yield 8.75%, LIFUNG 29 was 0.5pt higher from RO at 98.89 [2] CNH Space - New CNH CCAMCL 2.35 29/CCAMCL 2.43 30 were 0.2 - 0.6pts lower from ROs at par; new CNH TEMASE 30/35/55 and CHMEDA 30/35 were under better selling and closed 0.1 - 0.6pt lower [4] - KCGZIG priced 3yr CNH1.4bn bond at par to yield 2.65% (IPT at 3.3% area); there were two - way interests on CNH names LUOYNG 7 26s/QHCTJS 7 28s and USD new issues BINHCO 4.95 28s/DAZAKI 7 28s [4] - SPICPD Perp was up 0.1pt [4] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers: VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 up 2.1pts, LASUDE 5 07/28/26 up 1.8pts, BABA 5 5/8 11/26/54 up 1.5pts [5] - Top Underperformers: REGH 6 1/2 PERP down 0.9pt, ROADKG 6 03/04/29 down 0.6pt, ROADKG 5.9 09/05/28 down 0.6pt [5] Macro News Recap - S&P (-0.30%), Dow (-0.46%) and Nasdaq (-0.38%) were lower on Tuesday; US and China will continue talks on tariff truce extension [6] - US Jul'25 CB Consumer Confidence was 97.2, higher than the market expectation of 95.9; US Jun'25 JOLTS Job Openings was 7.437mn, lower than the market expectation of 7.510mn [6] - UST yield was lower on Tuesday, 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.86%/3.90%/4.34%/4.86% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Adani Ports announced early tender offer results as of the early deadline; ADSEZ 4 07/30/27 was oversubscribed and no more validly tendered bonds after the early deadline will be accepted [7] - The tender offers will expire on 13 Aug'25 5pm EDT [7] Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced: Chengdu Xisheng Investment Group issued 92.5mn USD 3 - yr bond at 4.95%; China CITIC Bank London Branch issued 300mn USD 3 - yr bond at SOFR + 50; Li & Fung issued 300mn USD 3.5NC2 bond at 8.75% [14] - Pipeline: No new issues pipeline today [15] News and Market Color - 93 credit bonds were issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB51bn; month - to - date, 1,971 credit bonds were issued with RMB2,075bn raised, a 13.8% yoy increase [16] - Adani Green's 2,200MW pumped hydro - storage power projects were scrapped at its request; Alibaba inks AI strategic partnership with Standard Chartered Bank [16] Company - Specific News - SK Hynix raises capex for high - bandwidth memory facility by 32% to KRW29tn (cUSD21bn) [19] - MIND ID 1Q25 revenue rises 74.6% yoy to IDR44.2tn (cUSD2.7bn) [19] - Lai Sun Development seeks to sell 50% stake in CCB Tower in Hong Kong [19] - LG Innotek to acquire stake in US tech firm Aeva for AI strategic collaboration [19] - Logan considers proposing a deeper haircut under offshore debt restructuring [19] - Nissan to consolidate Mexico production in one plant [19] - South Korean president blasts POSCO unit over fatal workplace accidents [19] - SK On plans to raise KRW2tn (cUSD1.4bn) through stock price return swap [19] - San Miguel Corp completed the redemption of SMCPM 5.5 Perp [19] - SoftBank - backed eyewear chain filed for up to USD923mn India IPO [19] - Tata Motors nears USD4.5bn acquisition of Iveco [19] - Vedanta may not get PCF providers' consent to prepay facility on 8 Aug'25 [19]
【平安固收】2025年6月机构行为思考:risk on背景下需要关注什么?
Ping An Securities· 2025-07-29 08:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, the year - on - year growth of bond custody scale decreased, with the growth rate of custody balance dropping by 0.3 percentage points to 14.9%. The main contributor to the decrease was inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs), while interest - rate bonds increased year - on - year. Government bonds maintained a year - on - year increase [5][10]. - Except for foreign investors continuing to reduce their bond holdings, the overall bond - allocation strength of institutions was not weak. Different types of institutions had different bond - allocation preferences and reasons [6]. - Looking ahead, it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of equities and the evolution of the pressure on the liability side of funds. The bond supply situation in July is expected to be similar to that in June, and the net supply of government bonds is expected to decline from August to September, which may relieve the supply pressure on the bond market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Scale in June - The year - on - year growth rate of bond custody balance in June 2025 was 14.9%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from May. The newly - added custody scale was 1.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 176.9 billion yuan [5][10]. - Interest - rate bonds (treasury bonds + local government bonds + policy - bank bonds) and financial bonds were the main types with year - on - year increases, especially government bonds. In June, treasury bonds increased by about 20 billion yuan year - on - year, and local government bonds increased by about 28 billion yuan year - on - year. NCDs decreased significantly, and the net supply turned negative, continuing the downward trend since the second quarter [5]. 3.2 Bond - Allocation by Institutions in June - **Banks**: The growth rate of the deposit - loan difference continued to rise, and bond investment maintained a year - on - year increase. Structurally, they preferred local government bonds [6][39]. - **Insurance companies**: They increased their bond - allocation in June, mainly adding local government bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds. On one hand, the bond market was bullish in June; on the other hand, the growth rate of insurance premiums in the second quarter rebounded [44]. - **Unincorporated products**: Although the year - on - year increase was significantly lower, affected by the high base of manual interest supplementation last year, the actual bond - allocation strength was not weak. They reduced their holdings of NCDs and increased their holdings of active varieties such as treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds [6]. - **Foreign investors**: They continued the selling trend in May, mainly because the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar led to a decrease in the carry - trade income of foreign institutions [6]. - **Securities firms**: They increased their bond holdings by 151.4 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 52.9 billion yuan. After net selling in May, they replenished some bond positions in June [6]. 3.3 Outlook - **Supply side**: In July, the bond structure is likely to continue the situation in June, with government bonds increasing and NCDs remaining at a low level. It is expected that the net supply of government bonds will decline from August to September, and the supply pressure on the bond market may be relieved [7]. - **Institutional side** - **Banks**: With high asset growth and sufficient liabilities, it is expected that banks will maintain a high level of bond - allocation [7]. - **Insurance companies**: Attention should be paid to whether the rising stock market will affect the bond - allocation rhythm of insurance companies [7]. - **General asset - management accounts**: The liability side of wealth management products is relatively stable, while funds need to pay attention to the redemption pressure that may be brought about by the continuous adjustment of the bond and money markets [7].