Summary of Kinder Morgan Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kinder Morgan - **Industry**: Natural Gas and Energy Infrastructure Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - **Natural Gas Demand Growth**: Forecasted growth of natural gas demand is 28 billion cubic feet (BCF) per day, representing a 25% increase over the next four years, which is above consensus estimates [5][6][7] - **Drivers of Growth**: Growth is primarily driven by LNG exports (15-18 BCF per day), incremental power demand, industrial demand, and exports to Mexico [7][8] - **Pipeline Capacity**: Existing pipeline systems are highly utilized, with significant price increases in storage services noted [8] - **Backlog of Projects**: Kinder Morgan has an $8.8 billion backlog, with 90% related to natural gas, largely backed by take-or-pay contracts [9][10] Demand Drivers - **LNG Exports**: LNG export facilities require pipeline capacity, leading to increased demand for upstream connections [12][13] - **Power Demand**: 50% of Kinder Morgan's backlog is associated with power demand, driven by population migration, industrial growth, and coal retirements [17][18][21] - **Geographic Focus**: 85% of expected natural gas demand growth is in the Southern and Southeastern United States [21] Financial Performance and Strategy - **Revenue Sources**: 64% of EBITDA comes from take-or-pay contracts, with 26% from fee-for-service businesses, indicating low sensitivity to commodity prices [25][26] - **Capital Allocation**: Maintenance capital is around $1 billion, with growth CapEx at approximately $2.5 billion. The company aims to maintain and modestly grow dividends while investing in high-return projects [76][77] - **Debt Management**: Net debt to EBITDA is targeted at 3.5 to 4.5 times, with a focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet [78][79] Regulatory Environment - **Permitting Process**: The federal permitting process is improving, with recent regulatory changes aimed at expediting permits [33][34][36] - **Judicial Challenges**: There is a need for clarity in the judicial process regarding permit challenges, which can impact project timelines [37][39] Growth Opportunities - **M&A Strategy**: Kinder Morgan maintains a strong appetite for mergers and acquisitions, focusing on stable fee-based assets that meet specific criteria [49][50] - **Technological Advancements**: The company is exploring AI applications to enhance operational efficiency and decision-making [52][54] Refined Products and CO2 Business - **Refined Products Outlook**: Demand for refined products is expected to stabilize, with a modest price increase due to tariff escalators, despite a slight volume decline [56][59] - **CO2 Business**: Kinder Morgan's CO2 business involves enhanced oil recovery methods, contributing to 9% of overall business, with a focus on existing infrastructure [61][66] Conclusion - **Investment Proposition**: Kinder Morgan offers stable cash flow backed by long-term contracts, an attractive dividend, and a significant project backlog, positioning the company for growth in the natural gas sector [87][88]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 3% increase in adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025, reaching $1,989 million compared to $1,934 million in Q1 2024 [17][22] - Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 was raised from a midpoint of $7,650 million to $7,700 million, reflecting a 9% growth over 2024 [22][24] - The company received an S&P credit rating upgrade to BBB+ and a positive outlook from Moody's during the quarter [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Transmission and Gulf segment saw a 3% increase in EBITDA, driven by higher revenues from expansion projects [18][19] - The Northeast Gathering and Processing business improved by $10 million or 2%, primarily due to higher revenues [20] - The West segment increased by $26 million or 8%, supported by strong margins and pipeline volumes [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a 12% increase in Gulf gathering volumes and a 42% rise in NGL production [19] - The demand for natural gas pipeline capacity and volumetric demand is expected to grow, regardless of near-term macroeconomic conditions [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capitalizing on the rising demand for natural gas, particularly in power generation and LNG exports [25][26] - The company is pursuing high-return projects with a strong backlog of fully contracted projects extending beyond 2030 [25][26] - The leadership transition is aimed at maintaining the company's strategic focus on natural gas while leveraging new opportunities [26][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about continued growth, citing a strong start to 2025 and a robust pipeline of projects [22][24] - The company is well-positioned to respond to the increasing demand for natural gas, particularly in dry gas basins [52] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining high trust relationships with customers and suppliers to enhance operational efficiency [48] Other Important Information - The company successfully placed two projects into service during the quarter, contributing to earnings growth [10][11] - The quarterly dividend was increased by 5.3% to $0.50 per share, reflecting a commitment to a well-covered dividend program [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help us understand the size and returns for the new power projects? - Management expects the new projects to have attractive returns similar to the Socrates project, with full commercialization anticipated throughout the year [34] Question: What is the strategic rationale for the Cogentrix investment? - The investment is aimed at positioning the company to better serve the changing power market dynamics, particularly in the Northeast [38] Question: What competitive advantages does Williams have in the market? - The company attributes its success to collaboration across teams and the ability to provide comprehensive solutions for customers [45] Question: How does the company view the gas market unfolding? - Management sees a strong call for gas and expects to see rigs rotate into gas areas as oil prices soften [52] Question: What is the outlook for capital spending and project backlog? - The company anticipates elevated CapEx due to a strong project backlog and has sufficient balance sheet capacity to fund upcoming projects [57][59] Question: Can you provide an update on the Transco Power Express project? - The project is a 950 million cubic feet per day expansion, primarily sourcing from Station 165, and is scalable without dependence on Mountain Valley Pipeline expansion [91] Question: What is the risk management strategy for the Socrates and data center projects? - The company has fixed price agreements that mitigate commodity price exposure, with Sequent helping to source gas [82][84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company generated $274 million of EBITDA, representing a 3% year-over-year increase, driven by higher gathering and processing volumes, with processing volumes setting a record at 1.65 Bcf per day [12][13] - Free cash flow after dividends was $79 million, a 7% increase year-over-year, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow after dividends [13] - Leverage declined to approximately 2.9 times as of March 31, 2025, indicating improved financial health [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an increase in gathering and processing volumes, with expectations for low to mid single-digit year-over-year growth in gathering volumes for 2025 compared to 2024 [12] - The capital expenditures as a percentage of EBITDA stood at 17%, showcasing the company's capital efficiency compared to peers in the midstream industry [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Appalachian region has seen a surge in natural gas demand, particularly for power generation and data centers, with expectations for significant gas supply requirements for decades to come [8][10] - The percentage of data centers expected to be powered by natural gas increased from 50% to 70%, indicating a growing market opportunity [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capital efficiency and returning capital to shareholders, with plans to allocate approximately 65% of its EBITDA for dividends, debt reduction, and share repurchases [14][15] - The strategy includes a flexible capital allocation approach to direct funds to the highest return opportunities, with a focus on maintaining low debt levels [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term outlook for natural gas demand, particularly in the context of data centers and industrial uses in the Appalachian region [21][22] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities due to its significant infrastructure and investment-grade upstream counterparties [9][10] Other Important Information - The company has achieved substantial reuse savings from compressor station projects, totaling approximately $30 million at the Torrey's Peak station and over $50 million across three stations [6] - The company has secured materials and pricing for pipelines through 2026, mitigating potential impacts from tariffs and macroeconomic factors [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Potential for in-basin demand growth - Management noted ongoing discussions about local power demand, particularly for data centers, and expressed confidence in the company's infrastructure to support this growth [21][22] Question: Outlook for propane and risk mitigation strategy - Management reiterated confidence in the long-term outlook for propane, emphasizing its unique position in the residential and commercial markets [23][26] Question: Joint venture outlook and liquid-rich production - Management indicated comfort with current production levels and noted that future evaluations would depend on market prices and long-term outlooks [27][29] Question: Data centers commercialization and AM's benefits - Management stated that conversations are ongoing regarding infrastructure build-out to meet demand, but specifics are still early [34] Question: Capital allocation strategy and M&A opportunities - Management confirmed a continued focus on debt reduction and share buybacks while remaining open to strategic M&A opportunities [35][36] Question: LPG market impact on AM's volumes - Management indicated that current natural gas prices would not significantly impact production levels, maintaining a stable operational approach [40][41] Question: Cost optimization strategies - Management acknowledged potential opportunities for cost optimization but noted that discussions are still in early stages [42][43] Question: Water service expectations - Management confirmed expectations to service 70 to 75 wells as previously guided, anticipating similar volumes in Q2 [46]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company generated $274 million of EBITDA, representing a 3% year-over-year increase, driven by higher gathering and processing volumes, with processing volumes setting a record at 1.65 Bcf per day [10] - Free cash flow after dividends was $79 million, a 7% increase year-over-year, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow after dividends [11] - The company's leverage declined to approximately 2.9 times as of March 31, indicating a strong balance sheet [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an increase in gathering and processing volumes, with expectations for low to mid single-digit year-over-year growth in gathering volumes for 2025 compared to 2024 [10] - The capital expenditures as a percentage of EBITDA stood at 17%, highlighting the company's capital efficiency compared to peers in the midstream industry [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Appalachian region is experiencing significant growth in natural gas demand, particularly for power generation and data centers, with expectations for natural gas demand estimates to double by 2030 [8][9] - The percentage of data centers expected to be powered by natural gas has increased from 50% to 70%, indicating a strong market trend [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capital efficiency and returning capital to shareholders, with plans to allocate approximately 65% of its EBITDA for dividends, debt reduction, and share repurchases [12][13] - The company is well-positioned for future growth due to its investment-grade upstream counterparties and significant infrastructure in the region [7][8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term outlook for natural gas demand, particularly in the Appalachian region, and highlighted ongoing discussions regarding local power demand [19][20] - The medium to long-term outlook for the company is viewed as increasingly positive, with a flexible capital allocation strategy to capitalize on high-return opportunities [14] Other Important Information - The company has achieved significant reuse savings of approximately $30 million at the Torrey's Peak compressor station and over $50 million across all three stations constructed with relocated underutilized units [5] - The company has secured materials and pricing for its capital projects through 2026, minimizing impacts from tariffs and macroeconomic factors [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Potential for in-basin demand growth - Management noted ongoing discussions about local power demand, particularly for data centers, and expressed confidence in the company's infrastructure to support this growth [18][20] Question: Outlook for propane market - Management reiterated confidence in the long-term outlook for propane, emphasizing its unique position in the market and the steady growth expected in the residential and commercial sectors [21][24] Question: Joint venture outlook and liquid-rich production - Management indicated comfort with current production levels and stated that future evaluations will depend on market prices and long-term outlooks for gas and liquids [25][26] Question: Commercialization of data centers - Management stated that conversations are ongoing regarding infrastructure build-out to meet demand but did not provide specific details at this time [31] Question: Capital allocation strategy - Management confirmed a continued focus on debt reduction and share buybacks while remaining open to M&A opportunities as they arise [32][33] Question: Water service expectations - Management confirmed expectations to service 70 to 75 wells as previously guided, with similar volume levels anticipated for Q2 [43]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong financial results for Q1 2025, with natural gas demand growing by 6.8 billion cubic feet per day, driven by a 10% increase in residential and commercial demand and a 15% increase in LNG demand [14] - The project backlog increased to $8.8 billion after adding approximately $900 million during the quarter, with over 70% focused on serving power demand [15][16] - The acquisition of the Bakken Gathering and Processing System for $640 million was completed, although it had minimal impact on quarterly results due to a short ownership period [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Transport volumes in the natural gas business unit increased by 3% compared to Q1 2024, achieving new peak day volume records [25][26] - The largest project in the backlog, Bridge, is a $430 million extension of the Elba Express pipeline, expected to deliver 325 million cubic feet per day into South Carolina [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. natural gas demand rose from approximately 60 BCF per day in 2005 to almost 109 BCF per day in 2024, marking an increase of roughly 80% [4] - Future growth in natural gas demand is projected to be between 20 and 28 BCF per day by 2030, primarily driven by increased LNG export demand [5][6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains bullish on U.S. LNG exports, citing factors such as increased demand from the EU and Asia to offset any potential loss from the Chinese market [9][10] - The company is focused on long-term contracts with creditworthy entities to support its projects, ensuring stable cash flow and a strong balance sheet [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a conservative outlook for 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and commodity prices, although they do not expect a material impact from tariffs [19] - The company anticipates that the $7 trillion in new U.S. investments could drive additional demand not currently captured in projections [15] Other Important Information - Management succession plans were discussed, with Tom Martin set to retire in January 2026, and Dax Sanders to succeed him as president [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on project economics - Management does not believe tariffs will significantly impact project economics, estimating the impact to be roughly 1% of project costs for new large projects [17][18] Question: Performance of the Bakken Gathering and Processing System acquisition - The acquisition is performing in line with expectations, despite having only been owned for 45 days during the quarter [20]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects its expansion capital program to be around $2 billion, with potential variations between $2 billion and $2.4 billion, indicating a stable financial outlook for future investments [49] - Current leverage is around four times, with expectations for it to drift lower over time as new projects come online, creating capacity for further share repurchases [51] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Kinder Morgan moves 40% of U.S. natural gas and serves about 20% of the power demand across the U.S., with 40% of the power demand within the Texas market, highlighting its significant market position [7] - The company has signed 1.2 Bcf per day of commitments for the Southern Natural Gas expansion project, which is a three Bcf per day project, indicating strong demand in the Southeast markets [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wood Mackenzie projects natural gas demand to grow from 108 Bcf per day to 128 Bcf per day by 2030, with significant contributions expected from LNG and exports to Mexico [12] - The peak power demand in Texas increased from 70 gigawatts in 2018 to 86 gigawatts in 2023, reflecting a 16 gigawatt increase and indicating robust growth in power demand [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its natural gas infrastructure to meet increasing power demand driven by population migration and industrial growth in states like Texas and Arizona [4] - Kinder Morgan is also investing in renewable diesel and RNG assets, with ongoing projects aimed at enhancing its renewable fuel infrastructure [44][46] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth of power demand, particularly from data centers and AI, and believes that the overall power demand is underestimated by some analysts [13][15] - The company is optimistic about the regulatory environment, noting recent positive rulings that could facilitate future projects [33][34] Other Important Information - The company has completed a 5 Bcf storage project and is looking at additional storage opportunities, indicating a proactive approach to increasing storage capacity amid growing market volatility [30] - The company is exploring both brownfield and greenfield storage projects, with expectations that greenfield storage will become viable as storage rates remain high [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide insights on the macro backdrop for natural gas demand? - Management highlighted ongoing commercial discussions related to over five Bcf per day of opportunities, with 1.6 Bcf per day specifically tied to data center demand [2][3] Question: What is the status of the Southern Natural Gas expansion? - The company confirmed binding commitments of 1.2 Bcf per day for the expansion project, with an expected in-service date in late 2028 [11] Question: How does the company view the supply picture in the near and long term? - Management provided projections for supply growth from various regions, indicating a strong position to meet demand, particularly from the Eagle Ford and Permian basins [18][20] Question: What are the expectations regarding regulatory developments? - Management noted positive recent rulings and expressed optimism about navigating the regulatory landscape effectively [33][34] Question: Can you update on the renewable diesel and RNG projects? - The company reported progress in renewable diesel capacity and ongoing challenges in ramping up RNG facilities, with expectations for improved performance in the near future [44][46]