咨询机构Energy Aspects报告称，中国炼油商对沙特阿拉伯的石油需求正在减少，这可能意味着随着更多俄罗斯原油供应的增加，全球石油供应将重新洗牌。鉴于乌拉尔原油与中东同类原油相比仍是“最具竞争力”的原油，中国的兴趣正在升温。🗒️沙特阿美对中国炼油厂的供应配额显示，9月份将向中国出口约4300万桶原油，即143万桶/日，低于8月的165万桶/日。 ...

Demand Forecast - OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by approximately 19% to nearly 123 million barrels per day by 2050 [1]

Oil Market Dynamics - The market had priced in a $15-20 per barrel premium due to Israel-Iran tensions, which is now being eliminated as the worst of the turmoil appears to be over [2] - Prior to the conflict, debates centered on tariffs potentially driving recession and leading to $50 oil price predictions [3] - Better-than-expected oil demand data and underperforming OPEC production quotas were observed [4] - Shale oil drilling had decreased, leading to questions about potential rollover [4] - Demand is hanging in at around 1 million barrels per day of growth [6] Factors Influencing Oil Prices - Transportation costs, particularly shipping, have surged due to Middle East risk premiums [5] - The potential for shale oil growth resumption if oil prices remain above $70 is a key variable [6] - Underlying oil fundamentals should be the primary focus, considering past disruptions' varied impacts [6][7] Geopolitical Considerations - The Israel-Iran conflict has not demonstrated Iran's strong military capabilities [8] - Most of Iran's oil sales go to China, making the closure of the Strait of Hormuz unlikely [8][9] - China's role is significant in preventing actions like closing the Strait of Hormuz [9]

Oil Market Dynamics - Chinese traders are considered the most influential oil traders, primarily due to their significant purchases of Iranian crude oil [1] - Approximately 80% of Iranian oil is re-flagged through Malaysia before being exported, mainly to China [1] - The White House has seemingly turned a blind eye to sanctions, allowing Iranian oil to continue flowing at high levels [2] - There are concerted efforts to avoid interrupting the oil supply, with no party, including Iran, wanting to halt the flow [2] - Concerns about Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz are less about physical barriers and more about the potential for missile attacks on tankers [3] Supply and Demand - Current oil demand is extraordinarily high at 103 million barrels per day, equivalent to approximately 1300 barrels per second [5] - Global oil production capacity stands at 108 million barrels per day, indicating a spare capacity of 5 million barrels per day [5] - Spare capacity is primarily located in the Gulf region [6] - Strong demand, particularly due to Middle Eastern heat, has supported oil prices, with an extra 400,000 barrels per day of demand [9] - A cold winter in key markets (Northeast Asia, Europe, and the US) added over 1 million barrels per day of extra demand in Q1 [9] Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment - The market perceives a low risk of interruption in the Straits of Hormuz, as major players like China, the US, Europe, and Saudi Arabia want the oil to keep flowing [6] - The likelihood of the Straits of Hormuz being shut by the end of June is considered extremely low [7] - The market is in a plentiful supply situation, potentially pushing commodity prices lower even after accounting for risk premiums [8] - Incremental geopolitical disasters are needed to significantly increase oil prices [10]

The latest forecasts from the IEA this morning. What are they saying, particularly about China, the demand from the world's second largest economy. Yeah, they're bringing forward their estimate for when they think Chinese crude oil demand is going to peak.So they're saying oil demand peaking in China in about 2027. So that's earlier. And then in general, 2030, global crude oil demand peaking.And this has been a discussion in the oil market going back and forth because you'll have countries like those in OPE ...