Core Insights - Oil prices remained stable as investors assessed the implications of a ceasefire deal in Gaza against ongoing stalled peace talks in Ukraine, which may prolong sanctions on Russia and affect its oil exports [1][5]. Group 1: Ceasefire Deal in Gaza - Both Israel and Hamas have publicly endorsed a ceasefire deal, expected to be signed in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt [2]. - The ceasefire will involve a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the release of hostages by Hamas in exchange for prisoners held by Israel [3]. Group 2: Implications for Oil Markets - The ceasefire could have significant implications for oil markets, potentially reducing attacks in the Red Sea and increasing the likelihood of a nuclear deal with Iran, which may lead to higher crude and product exports from Iran [4]. - Previous attempts at ceasefire deals have failed, and the ongoing conflict in Gaza has supported oil prices due to concerns over global supply disruptions [5]. Group 3: OPEC+ Production and U.S. Oil Consumption - OPEC+ has agreed to a smaller-than-expected output increase, which has alleviated oversupply concerns in the market [6]. - U.S. petroleum products supplied rose to 21.99 million barrels per day, the highest level since December 2022, indicating a potential increase in U.S. oil consumption [7].

Uh for more on the path ahead, let's bring in RBC Capital Markets global head of commodity strategy and CBC contributor Haleim Croft. Helma, great to have you with us. Thank you for having me.You know, Melissa, the same scenario as we had last month. We had a rally one week before the OPEC meeting. If we had talked this time last week, we would have been talking about Brent prices approaching 70.Now we have another sell-off going into an OPEC meeting over the weekend. And I think market participants are ver ...

Core Insights - Oil prices showed a slight recovery in early Asian trading after two sessions of significant declines, with Brent futures at $66.17 and WTI at $62.50, reflecting a 0.21% increase on the day [1] - The recent price fluctuations are attributed to concerns over a potential OPEC+ production increase and mixed signals from U.S. crude inventory data [2][3] Group 1: Price Movements - Brent and WTI experienced a sharp selloff earlier in the week, with both benchmarks falling over three percent on Monday, marking the steepest daily losses since August 1 [2] - The decline continued on Tuesday, with both benchmarks shedding at least another one and a half percent, indicating market anxiety regarding OPEC+ production decisions [2] Group 2: Inventory Data - The American Petroleum Institute reported a decrease in U.S. crude inventories by 3.67 million barrels for the week ending September 26, suggesting tighter supply conditions [3] - However, gasoline stocks increased by 1.3 million barrels, and distillate inventories rose by 3 million barrels, presenting a mixed supply picture [3] Group 3: OPEC+ Discussions - OPEC+ is reportedly considering a production hike of up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, which is three times the increase seen in October, with Saudi Arabia advocating for a larger increase to enhance its market share [4] - OPEC has expressed unease regarding the reports of a 500,000 bpd increase, labeling them as "misleading," which underscores the uncertainty in the group's decision-making process [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming EIA inventory data, which may confirm the API's reported drawdown and provide short-term support for prices [5] - The near-term direction of oil prices is expected to depend heavily on inventory trends and signals from OPEC+ ahead of its next ministerial meeting [5]

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Core Viewpoint - Oil prices remained stable on Thursday, influenced by weak demand in the United States and concerns over oversupply, despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict in Russia [1] Group 1: Oil Prices - Oil prices showed little change, indicating a cooling from previous sessions [1] - The stability in oil prices is attributed to weak demand in the U.S. market [1] - Broad oversupply risks are counteracting concerns related to geopolitical events [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Concerns over attacks in the Middle East are present but are not significantly impacting oil prices [1] - The ongoing war in Russia is also a factor, yet it is overshadowed by supply and demand dynamics [1]

Geopolitical Risks & Potential Outcomes - Abandonment of Ukraine would be a horror scenario for Ukraine, NATO, and the United States [1] - Best case scenario: Trump realizes he's been manipulated by Putin and increases support for Ukraine, including sanctions [2][3] - Most likely scenario: A positive meeting leading to further talks, potentially including Zelensky [4] - Trump reassured European leaders he won't make decisions about Ukraine without them, focusing on a ceasefire rather than land swaps [5] - The situation is uncertain due to the unpredictable nature of Trump's actions [5][16] Sanctions & Economic Impact - Trump hates the bloodshed in Ukraine, especially after Putin's actions [8] - The "moral equivalent" to military action against Russia is getting tough on sanctions and providing security guarantees to Ukraine [9][10] - Existing sanctions haven't been fully enforced, partly due to concerns about raising oil prices to $140 per barrel and gasoline to $6 [11] - There's potential to get tougher on oil sanctions, including secondary sanctions on countries like India and China [12] - Trump has threatened a 50% tariff on India partly due to its oil purchases from Russia, signaling a willingness to get tougher [13] - The Biden administration was hesitant to enforce oil sanctions due to inflationary concerns and potential impact on the presidential election [14] Trump's Stance & Motivation - Trump doesn't like being humiliated or played along, but his response to Putin's actions has been slow [15] - Trump aims to achieve something in the negotiations with Putin [6] - Trump told European leaders that Putin will face consequences if he doesn't stop the war [7]

Market Trends - The financial impact of OPEC+'s unexpected decision to increase oil production seems to be diminishing, at least temporarily [1]

Core Insights - United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on July 16, with a history of positive earnings surprises, averaging a beat of 10.34% over the last four quarters [1][3]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UAL's Q2 2025 earnings has been revised down by 1.57% to $3.75 per share, indicating a 9.42% decrease from the previous year's actual earnings [3][5]. - UAL's revenue for Q2 2025 is estimated at $15.31 billion, reflecting a 2.17% year-over-year growth, supported by improving travel demand and lower fuel prices [7]. Cost and Economic Factors - UAL is expected to face challenges from a tariff-induced macroeconomic environment, with geopolitical uncertainties and inflation likely impacting travel demand [4][6]. - Labor costs are projected to rise, contributing to an 8.8% increase in operating costs compared to Q2 2024, driven by a 10.5% rise in salaries and related expenses [6]. Oil Prices and Industry Impact - The decline in oil prices, which fell 6% in the April-June 2025 period and 9% since the start of 2025, is seen as beneficial for the aviation industry, as fuel expenses are a significant cost factor [8]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model indicates a potential earnings beat for UAL, with an Earnings ESP of +3.43% and a Zacks Rank of 3, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming earnings report [9].

Market Focus - Fidelity leaders discuss the escalating conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on oil prices, markets, and the global economy [1] - The discussion covers topics such as the Iran conflict, Middle East situation, oil prices, and the global economy [1] - Fidelity provides insights on managing portfolios in the context of geopolitics [1] Economic Impact - The analysis includes short and long-term perspectives on oil prices [1] - The relationship between oil prices and inflation is examined [1] - Global reactions to the Middle East conflict are considered [1] Investment Strategy - Fidelity touches on international stocks and interest rates [1] - Fidelity encourages viewers to bookmark their Market Insights webpage for updates on market headlines and volatility [1]

Geopolitical Landscape & Energy Market Impact - US oil production has significantly altered the global energy equation [3] - Middle East countries, including Saudi Arabia, are diversifying their economies away from oil [4] - Iran's influence in the region has been diminished, with its proxies being weakened [5] - A shift is occurring where regional players are prioritizing economic prosperity through oil trade over ideological conflicts [7][9] Iranian Oil Sanctions & Trade - The US president has eased some sanctions on Iranian oil exports to China [7] - Increased Iranian oil exports to China could de-risk the Strait of Hormuz [8] - Trade talks and potential tariffs between the EU and other nations are bearish for oil prices due to potential economic drag [8][9] Transformation in the Middle East - The Middle East is undergoing a transformation, moving away from constant conflict [10] - The regional dynamics have changed significantly, with Israel being the strongest country [10]