Yield Trends - French 30-year government bond yield rose 6 basis points to 451%, a new high since June 2009 [1] - Spanish 30-year government bond yield increased 55 basis points to 43%, a new high since November 2023 [1] - Italian 30-year government bond yield climbed 5 basis points to 466%, a new high since April this year [1] Market Sentiment - Eurozone long-term government bond yields continue to rise, with the French 30-year government bond yield exceeding 45% for the first time since 2011 [1] - The spread between French and German bond yields has reached nearly 80 basis points, hovering at its widest level since April [1] Political Factors - France's political situation is weighing on the performance of French government bonds [1] - French Prime Minister Borne's minority government faces the risk of being ousted in a vote of confidence on September 8 [1]

Intensifying protests in Indonesia and the latest leadership upheaval in Thailand are ratcheting up political risk in the two largest emerging stock markets in Southeast Asia https://t.co/06AlsEnRPZ ...

For the moment, what we have is deadlock is a bit of a short story in France. I don't think markets would get overly stressed about France being at 100 basis points. Political risk.Really, it's frost into kind of France in a spotlight. It's nothing that we are not used to compared to Germany, which seems to be a bit below the spread of 2024. But to swap, we are above this level.We have a playbook. We went through these last summer and Spritz went all the way to 80. The ECB, I'm sure, will be ready to suppor ...

Market Trends & Political Risk - French companies with limited domestic exposure are seeking to raise new funds in the bond market [1] - The timing coincides with increasing political risk in France [1]

A rally in Latin American currencies has made them expensive while increasing their vulnerability to political risk and a rebound in the US dollar, according to Wells Fargo https://t.co/epX1SQ4Eok ...

Core Viewpoint - Palantir Technologies has experienced significant stock growth, more than doubling in value this year, driven by interest in generative AI and new government contracts following the re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. President [1][2] Financial Performance - Palantir's Q2 revenue grew 48% year-over-year, exceeding $1 billion, and the company raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $4.14 billion and $4.15 billion, up from a previous forecast of $3.89 billion to $3.90 billion [1][2] - Adjusted operating margins improved to 48%, up from 37% in the year-ago quarter [2] Market Dynamics - The U.S. government segment saw a revenue increase of 53% year-over-year, reaching $426 million in the last quarter [5] - Broader market conditions remain challenging, with inflation and job market softness posing risks to future growth [4] Valuation Concerns - Palantir's stock is trading at a high valuation of approximately 255x forward earnings, making it susceptible to significant pullbacks [4][10] - The company's revenues have grown at an average annual rate of 24% over the past three years, but this growth does not justify the current stock valuation [10] Risks and Challenges - Government contracts are unpredictable, which complicates future revenue forecasts [5][6] - The reliance on federal contracts exposes Palantir to political risks, including shifts in government priorities and potential budget cuts [6] - The commercial market, while showing growth, faces challenges in scaling beyond large enterprises due to complex and expensive implementations [7][8] Historical Performance - Palantir stock has shown volatility, losing over 70% of its value during economic stress in 2022, while the S&P 500 declined about 25% [9] - The stock has recovered to a high of $160.66 as of early August 2025, but historical trends indicate potential for steep declines if market sentiment shifts [9]

Market Dynamics - Investors in Turkey are nervously awaiting a verdict on the fate of the main opposition party [1] - The arrest of Istanbul's mayor in March led to an exodus of foreigners from the market [1]

Geopolitical Risks & Market Reaction - The market is failing to fully appreciate the potential gravity of the current geopolitical moment, particularly concerning Middle East conflicts [2] - The perceived importance of Middle East conflict and its relationship to oil prices has declined over time, potentially leading to underestimation of current risks [2] - US shale gas supply has reduced the sensitivity of oil prices to Middle Eastern geopolitical risks, but the current situation is different [4] Potential Escalation Scenarios - The US potentially getting involved in a major geopolitical risk event, such as a conflict with China over Taiwan or an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, represents a significant escalation [5] - The possibility of a "controlled explosion" potentially happening in Iran indicates a failure of markets to understand the risk trajectory [6] - Recent exchanges of force between Israel and Iran, including Israel's claimed aerial superiority, represent a strong statement and escalation [7] Israel-Iran Conflict Dynamics - Israel's Operation Rising Lion, involving targeted assassinations and undermining Iran's nuclear capacity, is an advanced operation [8] - The success of Operation Rising Lion on Israeli terms would require undermining Iran's nuclear capacity [8] - Achieving the desired outcome in the conflict between Israel and Iran may require US military assistance, making Trump's decisions a key variable [9]

Core Insights - Political risks are among the top five risks for 75% of global companies, with 11% identifying it as their number one risk [1] - 58% of companies anticipate negative financial impacts due to US tariffs, comparable to the 60% affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2023 [2] - Political risk concerns have evolved significantly over the past eight years, now affecting a broader range of sectors and focusing on US policy [3] Industry Impact - Highly exposed industries such as contracting, transport, and mining are disproportionately affected by political risks [1] - In 2023, political risk losses were the highest recorded, driven by expropriation, political violence, and currency convertibility issues, with 18% of respondents needing to restate corporate earnings [5] - Major political risk concerns for 2025 include US policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, and geopolitical tensions affecting market access [5] Risk Mitigation Strategies - Companies are increasingly relying on direct negotiations with host governments and political risk insurance to recover from past losses [5] - The most common strategies for mitigating future risks in 2025 include diversification and a "three lines of defense" approach [5]