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Bloomberg· 2025-06-30 05:48
Market Dynamics - Investors in Turkey are nervously awaiting a verdict on the fate of the main opposition party [1] - The arrest of Istanbul's mayor in March led to an exodus of foreigners from the market [1]
Fordham: Markets are failing to appreciate the gravity of the moment
CNBC Television· 2025-06-16 11:39
Geopolitical Risks & Market Reaction - The market is failing to fully appreciate the potential gravity of the current geopolitical moment, particularly concerning Middle East conflicts [2] - The perceived importance of Middle East conflict and its relationship to oil prices has declined over time, potentially leading to underestimation of current risks [2] - US shale gas supply has reduced the sensitivity of oil prices to Middle Eastern geopolitical risks, but the current situation is different [4] Potential Escalation Scenarios - The US potentially getting involved in a major geopolitical risk event, such as a conflict with China over Taiwan or an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, represents a significant escalation [5] - The possibility of a "controlled explosion" potentially happening in Iran indicates a failure of markets to understand the risk trajectory [6] - Recent exchanges of force between Israel and Iran, including Israel's claimed aerial superiority, represent a strong statement and escalation [7] Israel-Iran Conflict Dynamics - Israel's Operation Rising Lion, involving targeted assassinations and undermining Iran's nuclear capacity, is an advanced operation [8] - The success of Operation Rising Lion on Israeli terms would require undermining Iran's nuclear capacity [8] - Achieving the desired outcome in the conflict between Israel and Iran may require US military assistance, making Trump's decisions a key variable [9]
Political risk tops companies’ ERM risk registers, according to latest Willis Political Risk Survey
Globenewswire· 2025-05-01 09:15
Core Insights - Political risks are among the top five risks for 75% of global companies, with 11% identifying it as their number one risk [1] - 58% of companies anticipate negative financial impacts due to US tariffs, comparable to the 60% affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2023 [2] - Political risk concerns have evolved significantly over the past eight years, now affecting a broader range of sectors and focusing on US policy [3] Industry Impact - Highly exposed industries such as contracting, transport, and mining are disproportionately affected by political risks [1] - In 2023, political risk losses were the highest recorded, driven by expropriation, political violence, and currency convertibility issues, with 18% of respondents needing to restate corporate earnings [5] - Major political risk concerns for 2025 include US policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, and geopolitical tensions affecting market access [5] Risk Mitigation Strategies - Companies are increasingly relying on direct negotiations with host governments and political risk insurance to recover from past losses [5] - The most common strategies for mitigating future risks in 2025 include diversification and a "three lines of defense" approach [5]