作者 Yiannis Zourmpanos ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意 味着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。 微软不仅在持续增长，更在实现 复利式扩张 ：巨额未履约合同储备（RPO）锁定未来收入， Azure、Foundry、Copilot 从基础设施到应用层形成互补，大幅提升客户粘性 。公司主动加 大投入，正在搭建具备长期生命力的 AI 基础设施。值得注意的是，微软股价回调，而长期投 资逻辑并未改变。 6250 亿美元未履约合同：12 个月内将转化约 1560 亿美元收入 微软凭借一体化云服务与 AI 规模化，形成独特运营优势，核心在于 Azure 云基础设施、自研 模型平台（Foundry）、终端应用（Copilot） 三者深度协同，推动多业务板块营收复利增 长。 2026 财年第二季度，微软云业务收入达 515 亿美元，同比增长 26%，公司正从技术栈的每 一层实现商业化变现。 其中，Azure 及其他云服务同比大增 39%，AI 服务是核心增长引 擎，远超行业 9.22% 的收入增速中位数。这种多层级变现模式包括：销售底层算力 （Azure）、模型访问权限（Foundry）、 ...

Core Insights - The artificial intelligence (AI) sector has become a major focus for investors, representing a multitrillion-dollar global opportunity that can benefit both humanity and corporate America [1] Company Overview - Palantir Technologies has emerged as a leading player in the AI application space, with its stock surging over 1,900% since the start of 2023, adding more than $300 billion in market value [2] - Despite its significant growth, Palantir's stock has experienced a decline of 37% since reaching an all-time high in early November [5] Competitive Advantage - Palantir possesses a sustainable competitive edge, which has significantly boosted its valuation [6] - The company operates two main AI-driven software-as-a-service (SaaS) platforms: Gotham and Foundry, which are unique in their offerings and face little large-scale competition [7] Product Details - Gotham is Palantir's primary platform, utilized by the U.S. federal government and allies for military operations and intelligence gathering, making it crucial for national defense [8] - Foundry, aimed at commercial businesses, helps organizations manage large data flows and improve efficiency, with 780 commercial customers as of 2025, reflecting a 37% year-over-year growth [9]

Core Insights - Microsoft is experiencing significant growth and compounding, with a substantial contracted backlog indicating future revenue growth [1] - The integration of Azure, Foundry, and Copilot enhances customer retention by providing a comprehensive infrastructure to applications solution [1] - The company's deliberate increase in investments is aimed at sustaining this growth trajectory [1] Group 1 - Microsoft has a large contracted backlog that represents future revenue potential [1] - The combination of Azure, Foundry, and Copilot creates a synergistic effect that increases customer stickiness [1] - Higher investments are a strategic choice to support ongoing growth [1]

Core Insights - Microsoft is experiencing significant growth and compounding, with a substantial contracted backlog indicating future revenue growth [1] - The integration of Azure, Foundry, and Copilot enhances customer retention by providing a comprehensive infrastructure to applications solution [1] - The company's deliberate increase in investments is aimed at sustaining this growth trajectory [1] Group 1 - Microsoft has a large contracted backlog that represents future revenue potential [1] - The synergy between Azure, Foundry, and Copilot contributes to greater customer stickiness [1] - Higher investments are a strategic choice to support ongoing growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Palantir Technologies has reported impressive fourth-quarter earnings, exceeding analyst expectations, but its stock remains 33% below its November peak, raising questions about whether it is a good time to invest [1]. Company Overview - Palantir specializes in building software platforms that assist large organizations in managing and interpreting their data, with two main products: Gotham for government and defense clients, and Foundry for commercial clients [1]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated remarkable sales and earnings growth over the past few years, with a reported 137% year-over-year growth in its domestic commercial business in the fourth quarter, which is a 28% increase from the previous quarter [5][6]. - Palantir's gross margin stands at 82.37%, indicating strong profitability [3]. Competitive Advantage - Palantir's competitive edge lies in its customized approach, where forward-deployed engineers work closely with clients to tailor solutions, creating a strong and durable competitive moat [7][8]. - The use of military terminology, such as referring to engineers as "Deltas," fosters an emotional connection with clients [10]. Valuation Concerns - Despite strong execution, Palantir's forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 160 is considered extreme, necessitating consistent annual growth of 30% to 40% over the next decade to justify its market cap of over $360 billion [11]. - The company faces challenges in maintaining growth, particularly outside the U.S., where growth has stalled at 10% in the U.K. and has slowed in other regions [12]. Long-term Outlook - While domestic growth is highlighted, the real concern for long-term investors is the high valuation, leading to the belief that Palantir may be overpriced [13].

Core Insights - Palantir Technologies has experienced a significant stock increase of 1,620% since the AI boom began with the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 [1] - CEO Alex Karp has sold $2.2 billion in Palantir stock over the last three years, raising concerns among investors despite his continued ownership of 6.4 million Class A shares valued at approximately $832 million [2] Company Overview - Palantir is positioned at the forefront of the AI revolution, providing clients with tools to manage and analyze complex data through its core analytics software products, Gotham and Foundry [5] - The company's ontology-based software architecture sets it apart from other data analytics solutions, and it has developed an Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) that allows for the integration of large language models into workflows [6] Market Position and Growth Potential - Forrester Research has recognized Palantir as a leader in AI decisioning platforms, and Morgan Stanley analysts suggest it is becoming the standard in enterprise AI, indicating strong future sales growth [7] - Grand View Research projects that spending on AI platforms will grow at an annual rate of 38% through 2033 [7] Financial Performance - Palantir reported a 70% increase in revenue to $1.4 billion, with a 34% rise in customer count and a 139% increase in average spend per existing customer [8] - The non-GAAP operating margin expanded by seven percentage points to 57%, resulting in a Rule of 40 score of 127%, which is unprecedented for a software company [9] - Non-GAAP net income increased by 79% to $0.25 per diluted share, with management forecasting 60% revenue growth for the full year 2026 [10] Valuation Concerns - Palantir's stock is currently trading at 74 times sales, making it the most expensive stock in the S&P 500, despite a 37% decline from its peak [11] - The high valuation raises concerns about the risk-reward profile for investors, suggesting that it may be prudent to take profits [12]

Key Takeaways NVIDIA benefits from eased U.S.-China trade curbs, boosting H200 chip shipments and revenue growth. NVDA expects fiscal Q4 2026 revenue near $65B as data center, GPU and Blackwell chip demand accelerates. Palantir shows strong AIP-driven growth, but reliance on government contracts raises risks. The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has fueled explosive gains for both NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) , making them some of the most sought-after stocks on Wall S ...

Every earnings season, investors look for proof that legacy tech giants like Microsoft (MSFT) are still a worthy investment for the long term. With its second quarter of fiscal 2026, Microsoft showed that it is still one of the strongest businesses in technology. The company is no longer just a legacy tech giant but a rapidly expanding AI and cloud powerhouse with multiple growth engines firing at once. Valued at $3.05 trillion, Microsoft has dipped 14% so far this year. This could be a good opportunity to ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant growth and potential red flags associated with Nvidia and Palantir, two leading companies in the artificial intelligence sector, highlighting a concerning trend of insider selling that may indicate overvaluation [3][11][18]. Company Overview - Nvidia and Palantir have experienced substantial stock price increases, with Nvidia's market cap rising by nearly $4.3 trillion and Palantir's shares increasing by almost 2,200% since the end of 2022, driven by their sustainable competitive advantages [2][3]. - Nvidia's GPUs dominate the AI-accelerated data center market, providing unmatched compute capabilities that support rapid decision-making and large language model training [4][5][6]. - Palantir's software platforms, Gotham and Foundry, leverage AI and machine learning, with Gotham primarily serving U.S. government contracts, ensuring predictable sales growth [8][9][10]. Insider Trading Activity - Over the past five years, insiders at Nvidia and Palantir have sold a net total of $12.83 billion more in stock than they have purchased, raising concerns about the companies' valuations [13][18]. - Insider buying activity has been minimal, with Nvidia executives last purchasing shares in December 2020 and Palantir seeing only $7.8 million in insider buys since January 2021 [17][18]. - The lack of insider buying, combined with significant selling, suggests that insiders may not view their companies' shares as attractively priced [18]. Valuation Concerns - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for Nvidia and Palantir indicates potential overvaluation, with Nvidia's P/S ratio exceeding 30 and Palantir's nearing 100, historically signaling a bubble for industry leaders [19].

Palantir第四季度营收、美国政府和商业部门贡献收入均超分析师预期，带动盘后股价上涨近7%。 美国政府和越来越多的企业购买了Palantir的人工智能工具，该公司第四季度业务超出华尔街预期，推动该股盘后上涨近7%。 财报显示，2025年第四季度Palantir实现14.1亿美元的营收，同比增长了70%，超过了分析师预期的13.3亿美元；每股收益调整后为25美 分，超过预期的23美分。其中，美国政府和商业部门贡献的收入分别为5.7亿美元和5.07亿美元，均超过分析师预期。 | (Amounts in thousands, except percentages and per | | Fourth Quarter | | Full Year 2025 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | share amounts) | | Amount | | Amount | | | Revenue | | క | 1,406,802 | ર્ટ | 4,475,446 | | Year-over-year growth | | | 70% | | 56% | | | | ...