Credit Rating Outlook - Fitch 可能下调波兰的 A- 信用评级 [1] Fiscal Challenges - 公共债务迅速增长 [1] - 政府削减庞大预算赤字的前景有限 [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The report focuses on the macroeconomic outcomes for **China** and **the US** following the surge in public debt ratios after **Covid**. It compares the fiscal policies and economic implications of both countries. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Public Debt Ratios**: Both China and the US have seen significant increases in public debt ratios since Covid, reaching **119% of GDP** in both economies, marking all-time highs (ex-Covid) [9][10][11] 2. **Divergent Economic Outcomes**: - China has maintained a focus on investment, while the US has increased household transfers, leading to different macroeconomic results. China has experienced **nine consecutive quarters of deflation**, whereas the US has faced inflation above target for the last four years [9][11][21] 3. **Fiscal Deficits**: - The US fiscal deficit is projected to widen to **7.1% of GDP** in 2026 from **6.1% in 2025**, while China's augmented fiscal deficit is expected to widen to **14% of GDP** in 2026 from **13% in 2025** [10][38] 4. **Spending Mix**: - The US deficit expansion has been driven by revenue deficits (non-capital expenditures), while China's augmented fiscal deficit is primarily driven by capital expenditures [11][12][14] 5. **Current Account Balances**: - The US has seen a widening current account deficit due to its revenue deficit expansion, while China maintains a current account surplus, driven by its focus on capital expenditure and manufacturing exports [16][19] 6. **Inflation Trends**: - The US has experienced above-target inflation, while China has faced persistent deflation, with the GDP deflator in negative territory for the past nine quarters [21][23] 7. **Private Debt Dynamics**: - In the US, private debt to GDP has decreased, while in China, it has remained high, contributing to an overall rising debt to GDP ratio [23][29] 8. **Nominal GDP Growth**: - China's nominal GDP growth has been weaker than that of the US, with projections indicating continued challenges in achieving robust growth [32][31] Additional Important Insights 1. **Demographic Challenges**: China's aging population is expected to increase the social welfare burden, leading to lower potential growth and demand shortfalls [56] 2. **Debt-Deflation Loop**: The report discusses the ongoing challenges of managing the debt-deflation loop in China, emphasizing the need for a shift in the growth model away from investment-driven growth [58][69] 3. **Policy Recommendations**: - The report suggests that China needs to cut excess capacity, accept lower GDP growth targets, and increase social welfare spending to boost domestic consumption and manage deflation [70][60] 4. **Investment vs. Consumption**: Policymakers in China continue to favor investment over consumption, which may exacerbate future debt burdens and deflationary pressures [64][66] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the contrasting fiscal policies and economic conditions of China and the US in the post-Covid landscape.

Public Finance Concerns - Poland's increased public debt and deficit are raising concerns [1] - The Prime Minister has been warned about the potential consequences of the rising debt and deficit [1]

Japan’s biggest bank industry group warned of the risks of a downgrade in the nation’s credit rating as politicians make election pledges that could swell the public debt. https://t.co/bHsgkCLmUx ...

Cryptocurrency & Public Finance - Binance 创始人 CZ 认为比特币可以解决大部分公共债务问题 [1]

Bitcoin could solve most public debt.Bitcoin News (@BitcoinNewsCom):The 213,500 BTC 🇧🇬 Bulgaria sold in 2018 are now worth 79% of its public debt 👀 https://t.co/VhYK0UftST ...

The Prime Minister has set out a plan for spending cuts and tax increases. Do you think that this should be enough to reassure investors. Yes, I think so.As you rightly said, across as an issue of large public debt and too large a public deficit, and we are actually tackling the issue, I believe, very seriously. The plan is a plan of €44 billion of savings and revenue increases, €44 billion. That will bring our deficit below the 5% threshold next year to 4.6%.And we are aiming at a deficit below 3% in 2029. ...

UK Public Debt & Gilt Market - UK public debt has reached levels last seen in the 1960s [1] - Restructuring in the gilt market is making it more difficult to finance UK public debt [1] Government & Fiscal Policy - The report questions whether the government will be able to take the big decisions needed regarding public debt and gilt market [1]

In a world of expanding public debt and volatile politics, it is imperative that policymakers get their arms around this potential epicenter of the next financial crisis, writes @PaulJDavies (via @opinion) https://t.co/1Ix5VzWvVQ ...

The big beautiful bill would have serious consequences for the American economy. It would extend lavish tax cuts, slash health care for the poor, boost defence spending—and add an estimated $4.5trn to the public debt https://t.co/8nPekT0Z4t ...