Group 1: Bitcoin Market Overview - Bitcoin started 2025 at $93,615.04, dropped to a low of $76,270.13 in April, and reached an all-time high of over $126,000 in early October, before retracing approximately 30% to around $90,000 due to aggressive selling and profit-taking by large holders [1][3][7] - The expected passage of the CLARITY Act in January 2026 is anticipated to create a regulatory framework for digital assets, boosting institutional investor confidence and paving the way for further investments [2][5] - Bitcoin is facing the threat of a crypto winter in 2026, with bearish analysts predicting prices could fall to $70,000 in the near term and potentially to $56,000 in the long term [3][4] Group 2: Institutional Demand and ETF Inflows - Institutional demand is expected to recover, with BlackRock ranking iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) among its top three investment themes for 2025, attracting around $25 billion in net inflows this year [5] - Net inflows in crypto ETFs are projected to exceed $50 billion in 2026, driven by the launch of over 100 crypto-linked products following the approval of generic listing standards by the U.S. SEC [5] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is benefiting from higher transaction revenues due to growing retail market participation and is expected to continue its growth through strategic acquisitions and product expansion [6] - Klarna Group Plc (KLAR) reported a 32% year-over-year increase in active consumers to 114 million and expanded its cryptocurrency footprint with partnerships, positioning it for growth [9] - SoFi Technologies (SOFI) launched SoFiUSD, a fully reserved U.S. dollar stablecoin, and became the first nationally chartered bank in the U.S. to offer crypto services for retail customers [11] - CME Group (CME) experienced record volume growth, with a trading record of 340,000 contracts per day in Q3 2025, and plans to offer 24/7 trading of cryptocurrency futures and options starting early 2026 [13]

Everything becomes a casino when the money is destroyed.We will look back at the decision to pursue QE coming out of the Global Financial Crisis as one of the biggest monetary policy mistakes in history.Look around at zero day options, sports gambling, prediction markets, altcoins, and many more examples.You can blame the market participants, but they are merely following the incentives.The real blame lies with those who decided to debase the currency at an accelerated rate. ...

Market Overview - S&P 500 futures increased by 0.42% before the opening bell, following a 0.88% gain in the previous session, with the index less than 1% away from its all-time high [1] Federal Reserve Actions - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%, which typically encourages more investment in equities [2] - Traders are currently pricing in a 46% chance of another interest rate cut in March, with no expectations for a cut in January [2] Liquidity Programs - The Fed has initiated monthly reserve management purchases (RMPs) of $40 billion to enhance liquidity in the repo market, aimed at stabilizing borrowing costs for banks [3] - Although the Fed states this is not a new round of quantitative easing, it is perceived by some on Wall Street as beneficial for stock prices [4] Economic Impact - The Fed's balance sheet has increased by $21.1 billion over two weeks due to RMPs, which is expected to support M2 and bank loan growth, contributing to nominal GDP growth of approximately 5% [5][6] - Analysts at Wells Fargo suggest that the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet will create buying opportunities during market dips, as liquidity enters a mini upcycle [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4,300 per ounce, is not a speculative bubble but a delayed mathematical revaluation due to the unprecedented global government debt interest payments, which have reached a historical high of $4.9 trillion annually [5][6][14]. Group 1: Gold Price and Government Debt Interest - Since the 2008 financial crisis, there has been a remarkable positive correlation between gold prices and global government debt interest expenditures [4][10]. - The current annual interest expenditure of $4.9 trillion represents a significant "burn rate" for the global fiat currency system [7][14]. - The focus on total debt of $346 trillion overlooks the more critical metric of debt servicing costs, which have surged by $1.6 trillion over the past three years [13][14]. Group 2: Fiscal Dynamics and Spending Trends - A pivotal shift has occurred where interest payments in major developed economies, led by the U.S., have now surpassed defense spending for the first time [16][17]. - In the first two months of FY2026, U.S. net interest costs surged by $19 billion year-on-year, reaching $179 billion, making interest the second-largest expenditure after Social Security [18][19]. - Interest payments have overtaken federal healthcare and defense spending, indicating a structural deterioration in fiscal health [27]. Group 3: Future Predictions and Market Dynamics - The model predicts that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by a looming $10 trillion refinancing wall of public debt that will need to be re-priced at higher interest rates [37][40]. - Central banks may be forced to implement yield curve control or quantitative easing to manage rising interest payments and prevent fiscal insolvency [39][41]. - The current gold price of $4,300 is seen as a confirmation signal that the global financial system cannot sustain positive real interest rates, with the $4.9 trillion interest expenditure acting as a trigger for a potential monetary reset [42].

The first quarter of the new century brought us a great financial crisis, a global pandemic and several revolutions in the ways markets coped with it all. Our colleague Romaine Bostick gives us highlights and lowlights. -How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values.-You had a market that hit a peak in early 2000. It proceeded to drop by about 30 percent in the span of just a few months. -The big question is hard versus soft landing at this point.My expectation is the fundament ...

Altcoins are sick. The prescription? Buy. That’s what BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes advised investors to do in a Friday essay where he declared that “shitcoins are sickly” after the October 10 liquidation event that took out $19 billion. But with the Federal Reserve printing $40 billion a month through its new Reserve Management Purchases programme — which Hayes reckons mirrors quantitative easing and will shoot Bitcoin to $200,000 by March — conditions are improving. “It will take time for the altcoi ...

"Is the Fed doing QE?""If this isn't QE, what is it?""What impact will this have on equities, gold, and Bitcoin?"Had the chance to speak with @LawrenceLepard about all of these questions and more.Give it a watch 👇Horizon (@JoinHorizon):“Gold leads, Bitcoin follows, and it follows harder.” – @LawrenceLepard– Why the Fed’s RMP is still money printing– How the four-year cycle is breaking down– When bitcoin could hit $250kWatch the latest episode of Over The Horizon ↓ https://t.co/Dg1HBgEFJk ...

or you know the geniuses are right and uh everything starts to take off as soon as we get a massive amount of quantitative easing. money printer goes on and the businesses start to fly and then all of a sudden we have a big you know another blowoff we have a blowoff top of 2026 and we go above 125k at that point I'll be selling and uh uh little new plan will have to be used but if that is true and we go above 125k to like 150 200k that's great for Hey. ...

Joining us now with more on that China and maybe even a little touch of Venezuela is Kyle Bass, founder and CIO at Haymon Capital Management. Kyle, I hope you're ready because we got a lot of things that we want to hit with you. Are you ready. >> I'm ready.>> Let's do this. All right, let's kick things off maybe with the Federal Reserve. Obviously, you're very well known for subprime years ago.Some people suggest the Federal Reserve is making a policy mistake by keeping rates too high for too long. What say ...

Quantitative easing is back, baby. Feds announced now that they are going to restart balance sheet expansion. They're going to do $40 billion in monthly Treasury bill buys.So, now that we know QE is coming back and it's going to be fun, what will happen to asset prices. This liquidity wave, it's called, it makes borrowing cheaper. It boosts confidence and it raises demand across all of financial markets.The biggest beneficiaries of QE are almost always risk assets. Stocks, they tend to rise because future e ...