Company Overview - Marathon Digital transferred approximately 2,348 BTC valued at $236 million to various exchanges, raising concerns of a potential miner-led selloff shortly after reporting strong Q3 2025 results [1][2] - The company reported revenues of $252.4 million and a net income of $123.1 million, reflecting a 92% increase in revenue year-over-year [2] Market Reaction - Following the transfer, Bitcoin briefly fell below $100K, hitting a low of $98K before rebounding to $101K, while Ethereum dropped to $3K and altcoins experienced declines [1] - The timing of the BTC transfer has confused investors, as such actions typically precede liquidation; however, some speculate that Marathon may be restructuring its treasury or preparing for over-the-counter deals [3] Industry Insights - Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, suggests that the Bitcoin correction may be nearing its end, noting a decline in both Bitcoin and USD liquidity since July [4] - Hayes indicates that the US Treasury's efforts to rebuild its cash balance post-debt ceiling deal have contributed to the liquidity drain, predicting a rebound in Bitcoin and other risk assets once the government shutdown concludes [5] - The Balance of Power (BoP) indicator shows increasing accumulation during recent price dips, suggesting stronger buying pressure near the $100,000 mark, which may position Bitcoin as a favorable investment if prices decline further [7]

Core Insights - The crypto market is experiencing a downtrend despite positive macroeconomic developments such as a 25-basis-point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve [2][3] - The anticipated rally in the crypto market has not materialized, leading to concerns among investors [3][6] Positive Developments - The US Federal Reserve's recent 25-basis-point rate cut and the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) were significant events in the financial sector [2] - A strategic de-escalation in US-China trade tensions and the approval of an altcoin staking ETF were expected to boost the crypto market [3] Market Dynamics - Ted Pillows highlighted that halting QT does not equate to injecting new liquidity into the economy, which is essential for the crypto market's recovery [4] - The altcoin market requires liquidity, which could be achieved through either the Fed starting Quantitative Easing (QE) or the Treasury releasing TGA liquidity [5] Sentiment and Risk Appetite - The current sentiment and risk appetite in the crypto market remain low, with high stablecoin dominance indicating a cautious approach from both retail and institutional investors [6] - Investors are opting to wait for clearer market conditions rather than engaging in uncertain investments [6] Market Liquidations - As of November 4, the crypto market has seen liquidations totaling $1.33 billion, with major losses in BTC, ETH, DOGE, and XRP, which has reduced leverage across markets [7] Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors - Persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges are contributing to the lack of positive sentiment needed to trigger a market rally [8]

Market Overview & Predictions - The author emphasizes the importance of balancing predictions with adaptability in the crypto market, suggesting neither extreme works [1] - The author anticipates a major global reset, potentially a depression comparable to 1929, unfolding between late 2025 and early 2026, driven by the unwinding of quantitative easing and tightening policies [3] - Tariffs are considered less significant compared to larger economic forces that will cause sharper market corrections [4] Short-Term & Medium-Term Outlook - A rebound is expected in the very short term, with Bitcoin potentially moving towards the $92,000 - $98,000 zone, and altcoins potentially bouncing 50%-100% [4] - A decent chance of another capitulation is expected in the short term (next few weeks), potentially triggered by renewed tariff talks, a pandemic scare, or escalating conflict [5] - A bullish trend is expected in the medium term (next few months, probably until September), potentially leading to an altseason, though not as significant as 2021 or 2017 [5] Long-Term Concerns & Risks - The author expresses concern about the artificial inflation of Bitcoin's price by ETFs and USDT/USDC minting, while many altcoins remain near their lows [7] - September 2025 is highlighted as a potential pivot point, drawing parallels to the 2021 cycle where a bear market began in November 2021 [7] - The author cautions about the potential behavior of Bitcoin during a real global recession/depression, expecting extreme volatility and potentially the worst part of the cycle [8]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin's recent price drop below $104,000 is seen as a temporary setback, with expectations of a future rally driven by the Federal Reserve's potential shift to quantitative easing [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Bitcoin's price has slumped 27% over the last month, attributed to liquidity drain from the US government's shutdown [1][2]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has led to a 10% decline in Bitcoin's value over the past week [3][4]. - Outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have approached $1 billion during this period, indicating significant market pressure [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom, suggests that many investors may misinterpret the current market weakness as a peak and sell their holdings, which he considers a mistake [2]. - Hayes advises investors to conserve capital and navigate the current market volatility until the government shutdown is resolved [4]. Group 3: Long-term Holder Activity - Long-term holders have sold over 827,000 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $86 billion, in the last 30 days, marking the largest monthly drawdown since July [5][6]. - This selling pressure from long-term holders is cited as a contributing factor to Bitcoin's current price decline [5].

Market Analysis & Altcoin Performance - Altcoins have been underperforming against Bitcoin since 2021 [2] - Altcoin/Bitcoin pairs recently hit a new low of 029% [3] - Historically, significant alt seasons have only occurred after altcoin/Bitcoin pairs reach 025% [3] - The current altcoin/Bitcoin pairs are at 036% [4] - The analysis suggests altcoin/Bitcoin pairs are likely to reach 025% [26][27] - An altcoin market cap is expected to be approximately 25% of Bitcoin's market cap [28] Social Interest & Market Cycles - Low social interest in crypto, similar to the period from January 2018 to the end of 2019, contributes to the underperformance of altcoins [7] - The current market cycle is being compared to the 2019 rally, where Bitcoin outperformed altcoins during quantitative tightening [11][12][14] - The entire 2019 rally for Bitcoin occurred during quantitative tightening, similar to the current cycle [14] - Bitcoin dominance is breaking through its bull market support band, indicating a likely continued rally [30] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve is expected to end quantitative tightening in December [9] - Historically, altcoin/Bitcoin pairs bottomed when quantitative tightening ended, but this did not immediately trigger an alt season [9] - The end of quantitative tightening might lead to a bounce in altcoin/Bitcoin pairs [17] - The analysis suggests that high interest rates and quantitative tightening have contributed to Bitcoin's outperformance and the absence of an alt season [25] Bitcoin Performance & Dominance - Bitcoin is taking liquidity from the altcoin market to maintain its position above $100000, similar to how it took liquidity to stay above $10000 in 2019 [34] - Bitcoin dominance is expected to continue to rise, at least until early December [26] - A weekly close below the 50-week moving average, currently around $103000, could indicate the end of the cycle [32][33]

Macroeconomic Analysis - The Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening (QT) is distinct from Quantitative Easing (QE), with QT involving the reduction of liquidity by allowing bonds to mature without reinvestment, while QE involves expanding the balance sheet through asset purchases [1] - QT is scheduled to officially end on December 1, 2025, and the Fed continues to reduce liquidity until then [1] - Historically, the Fed initiates QE following a liquidity crisis, a pattern observed in 2008, the 2019 repo crisis, and the 2020 Covid crash [1] Liquidity and Repo Market Dynamics - A $50 billion liquidity operation through the Fed's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) is a short-term overnight loan, not a permanent injection of cash or money printing [2] - The SRF allows banks to borrow cash directly from the Fed, up to $500 billion per day, serving as a backstop introduced after the 2019 repo market collapse [3] - SRF usage of $50 billion in a single day signals market stress, as normal usage is around $0-5 billion per day, indicating that liquidity in the private repo market has dried up [4] - The reverse repo pool has been drained from approximately $2.2 trillion to about $14 billion, suggesting a lack of excess liquidity [4] Historical Context and Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve first conducted QT in 2017, which ended in the 2019 repo market collapse, followed by the COVID crash, and the current situation mirrors this setup [6] - The previous QT ran from October 2017 to September 2019, with a massive QE program launched six months later in March 2020 after the COVID market collapse [6] - The system is showing signs of cracking again, with liquidity drying up, suggesting that the real crisis has not yet started [7]

Rick Santelli joining us now from Chicago with the bond report. Rick, I went on like a it was like a 10-second mini rant yesterday, but the the gist was basically this. The Federal Reserve can say and do what it wants. The bond market is the boss and the bond market is going to do what it wants and it wanted and wants clearly to take interest rates if not higher, not lower.Yeah, it's a very interesting dynamic, especially for those that are in the current administration or those that are looking towards hou ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, with discussions around the future of its balance sheet being a key focus [4][5][6] - The term "T bill and chill" refers to the Fed's strategy of increasing its holdings of short-term treasuries as it ends its quantitative tightening (QT) process [2][8] - Global spending on artificial intelligence (AI) is projected to reach $375 billion this year and is expected to grow to $500 billion by 2026, which may influence US Treasury rates [3][28] Group 2 - The Fed's balance sheet is crucial for liquidity in the financial system, and its unwinding process from excessive expansion during COVID is nearing completion [5][6][14] - The current economic environment is characterized by a K-shaped recovery, where high-income consumers are increasing spending while low and middle-income consumers are pulling back [15][16] - Rate volatility is more significant than the absolute level of rates, with the stock market showing a stronger correlation with rate volatility than with rate levels [19][20] Group 3 - The relationship between AI spending and the bond market is becoming more relevant, as investors seek to understand whether projected productivity gains will materialize [30][32] - The potential impact of AI on productivity could lead to a disconnect between economic growth and labor market health, raising questions about the Fed's response to unemployment rates [34][36] - The Fed's approach to rate cuts may be influenced by its legacy considerations, with a higher risk of a 50 basis point cut in the near future [46][50]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is viewed as a mistake, with inflation remaining significantly above the target, necessitating higher rates instead [2][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Fed is perceived to have stopped hiking rates prematurely, which is considered a misstep [2][3]. - The current inflation rate is at least 50% above the Fed's target, indicating a need for higher interest rates [2]. - The Fed's balance sheet remains at $6.7 trillion, which is significantly larger than the $4 trillion at the end of QE3, suggesting ongoing debt monetization [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market reacted negatively to the Fed's rate cut, with a notable flattening of the yield curve, particularly in the two-year and ten-year bonds [7][9]. - Long-term interest rates are expected to rise following the rate cut, as the bond market does not believe inflation will return to the 2% target [14][15]. - The price of gold is projected to increase significantly due to the anticipated decline in the dollar's value and the Fed's easing stance on inflation [13][16]. Group 3: Future Expectations - There is speculation that the December rate cut may be the last for a while, as dissenting opinions within the Fed indicate a shift in future policy [8][12]. - The end of quantitative tightening (QT) is seen as a precursor to a potential return to quantitative easing (QE) [16].

Market Outlook - Crypto market anticipates a final shakeout following the FED FOMC meeting [1] - Expectation of upward trend in crypto market post-shakeout [1] Price Targets - Bitcoin (BTC) projected to reach $150,000 - $180,000 [1] - Ethereum (ETH) projected to reach $7,500 - $12,000 [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Quantitative Tightening (QT) is expected to end on December 1st [1] - Anticipation of Quantitative Easing (QE) commencement [1] - Q4 is expected to be massive with QT ending and QE starting [1]