Delphi Digital said on X that the Fed delivered another 25 bps cut in December, taking the fed funds rate to ~3.50–3.75%. The forward curve prices at least three more cuts through 2026 (low-3% by year-end). With QT ending on Dec. 1, a TGA drawdown, and the RRP fully depleted, this is the first net-positive liquidity backdrop since early 2022—turning policy in 2026 from a headwind to a mild tailwind. https://t.co/2FTusuwCuB ...

While I was early on the bottom call, things are finally starting to look constructive again.Glad I didn’t puke into the lows, now the critical area IMO is the $98–$100K zone and that major downtrend line.Things look much better back above there.I still think the odds of this being a lower high are around 70–80% (pulled this number out my ass).There’s still an outside shot at new ATHs if we rip out of this zone aggressively, but no sense getting ahead of ourselves.Sentiment is still pretty floored, but with ...

Market Analysis & Bitcoin Dominance - Bitcoin dominance has been increasing, defying expectations that it would decrease immediately after the end of quantitative tightening (QT) [3] - The current market situation shares similarities with 2019, where Bitcoin topped before the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion [1] - Bitcoin's top formation occurred on apathy rather than euphoria, unlike the tops in 2017 and 2021, indicating a lack of new retail investor interest [3][4] - Historically, Bitcoin dominance tends to reverse course in September, regardless of its prior direction [8] - Total 2 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin has been dropping, suggesting a predictable pattern [11] Quantitative Tightening (QT) & Federal Reserve Policy - The end of QT on August 1st, 2019, did not immediately lead to a decrease in Bitcoin dominance; it initially rose before declining when the Fed's balance sheet expanded [2][3] - The balance sheet may not expand immediately after QT ends, potentially delaying recognition until January 2026 [13] - Interest rates remain high (4%), unlike the previous cycle when Bitcoin dominance topped out with rates at 2% [30] - The difference between interest rates and the 2-year yield is a key indicator; a smaller difference or a Fed funds rate below the 2-year yield is more conducive to altcoin market performance [33] Altcoin Market & Future Outlook - Altcoins may experience another drop against Bitcoin before potentially finding a low when the Fed's balance sheet starts to expand [27] - Alt seasons typically require social risk appetite and new retail investors, which are currently lacking [23][35] - Altcoins often form a low in the summer followed by a double bottom in Q4, or vice versa [25][26][27] - Ethereum could potentially reach a new all-time high even if Bitcoin does not, but it would likely be a divergent high [24]

so let me get this straight…> the fed quietly ended qt> pumped billions back into the system> rate cuts are literally a week away> vanguard and bank of america just opened their gates to cryptoand you’re telling me you're bearish? https://t.co/8YQFqgPeQc ...

Company Overview - BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) has acquired 96,798 ether (ETH), increasing its total ETH holdings to 3.73 million tokens, valued at approximately $10.5 billion, making it the largest Ethereum treasury company [1][2] - The firm also holds 192 bitcoin (BTC), a $36 million stake in Eightco Holdings (ORBS), and $882 million in cash [2] Market Context - Digital asset treasuries (DATs) are under pressure due to declining crypto prices and stock valuations, leading many firms to stop accumulating crypto or even sell off assets [3] - BitMine is one of the few firms continuing to buy ETH despite an estimated $4 billion in unrealized losses on its ETH holdings [3] Strategic Insights - The upcoming Ethereum upgrade, Fusaka, scheduled for December 3, is expected to enhance scalability, security, and usability, motivating BitMine to increase its ETH acquisitions by 39% [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to halt quantitative tightening and potentially cut interest rates in December, which could positively impact ETH prices and stabilize the crypto market [4]

Core Insights - Michael Gray has extensive experience in capital markets and fixed income asset management, having founded Gray Capital Management LLC and previously served as Head of Taxable Fixed Income at Fidelity Investments [1] Group 1 - Michael Gray holds an MBA in Finance from Wharton and a BA in Economics from Union College, indicating a strong educational background in finance and economics [1]

Liquidity & Monetary Policy - The US government reopening is expected to lead to increased liquidity due to TGA spending over several months [1] - Quantitative Tightening (QT) is expected to end in December, leading to a gradual increase in the balance sheet [1] - The market anticipates the dollar to weaken [1] - Expect "temporary" measures like Term Funding and SRF operations to avoid a year-end funding squeeze [1] - Changes to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) are anticipated in Q1 to allow banks to absorb more issuance and re-lever their balance sheets, acting as a significant liquidity boost [2] - Lower rates are expected as banks buy more bonds due to SLR changes [2] Fiscal Policy & Global Economy - Expect stimulus payments and fiscal stimulus to boost the economy [2] - China is expected to continue balance sheet expansion, and Europe may implement fiscal stimulus or extra spending [2] - The government aims to stimulate the economy leading up to the Mid-Terms [3] Regulatory & Legislative - Finalization of the CLARITY Act for crypto is expected [2]

Core Insights - The report discusses the Bank of England's Asset Purchase Facility (APF) operations for Q3 2025, including cash flow dynamics with HM Treasury and estimated savings from government debt issuance due to quantitative easing [1][7][20] Gilt Purchases and Sales - The average daily value of gilts lent by the APF to the Debt Management Office (DMO) was £8.0 billion during Q3 2025 [2] - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to reduce the stock of gilts held in the APF by £70 billion from October 2025 to September 2026, with a specific sales strategy for different maturity sectors [4][14] - As of September 24, 2025, the stock of gilts held for monetary policy purposes was £558 billion, following a reduction of £3.6 billion from sales and £28.3 billion from maturities during Q3 2025 [5] Cash Flow Dynamics - The APF generated positive net cash flows to HM Treasury, peaking at £123.9 billion by the end of September 2022 [7] - Regular transfers from HM Treasury to the APF began in October 2022, with ongoing quarterly payments [8] - Future cash flows are uncertain and sensitive to changes in the Bank Rate, which affects interest payments and gilt sale prices [10][11] Projections and Scenarios - Illustrative projections indicate that cumulative cash flows could fall between -£60 billion and -£120 billion, with fiscal savings from lower government debt issuance costs estimated at £50 billion to £125 billion [13][20] - The stock of gilts is expected to reduce by £70 billion annually, potentially leading to full unwinding by the end of 2031 [23] - Different scenarios for the pace of unwind show varying impacts on net present value (NPV), with cumulative cash flows projected to decline significantly under various assumptions [17][18]

Core Insights - The turmoil in the month-end repo market has settled down, aided by the actions of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) [1][15] - The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) is set to end on December 1, with a total balance sheet decline of $14 billion in October, bringing the total to $6.57 trillion [3][28] - The Fed's QT has resulted in a reduction of $2.39 trillion, or 26.7%, from its peak in April 2022 [3] QT Assets - Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) decreased by $16 billion in October, totaling $2.07 trillion, a decline of $670 billion or 24% from its peak [5] - Treasury securities saw a reduction of $4 billion in September, totaling $4.19 trillion, down $1.59 trillion or 27.4% from the peak in June 2022 [10] Repo Market Dynamics - The SRF balance spiked to $50 billion during the repo market turmoil, but returned to zero as market rates fell below the SRF rate [14][15] - Banks utilized the SRF to manage liquidity pressures, borrowing and lending in the repo market to profit from the spread [12][13] Other Assets and Accounting Entries - "Other assets" rose by $8 billion due to accrued interest, reflecting a consistent quarterly fluctuation over the past five years [2][22] - Unamortized premiums decreased by $2 billion to $228 billion, representing the Fed's accounting for bond premiums [21] Balance Sheet and Economic Context - The Fed-assets-to-GDP ratio dropped to 21.6% in October, indicating a return to levels seen in Q3 2013 [28] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) at the Fed currently holds $943 billion, contributing to the permanent increase in the Fed's balance sheet size since the Financial Crisis [27]

Core Insights - Bearish sentiment is increasing due to a significant decline in Bitcoin's price, yet some cryptocurrency influencers believe in the potential for a price reversal driven by global liquidity and Federal Reserve actions [1] Group 1: Market Liquidity and Government Shutdown - The downturn in the market is primarily attributed to tightening liquidity, linked to the Federal Reserve's aggressive Quantitative Tightening and the ongoing US government shutdown [2][3] - The government shutdown has led to a significant liquidity squeeze as the Treasury General Account (TGA) accumulates funds without spending, adversely affecting markets, particularly cryptocurrencies [3] Group 2: Predictions and Future Actions - The current liquidity situation is deemed unsustainable, with expectations that the government will spend between $250 billion to $350 billion once the shutdown concludes, leading to an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet [4] - Arthur Hayes anticipates that the Fed will implement a stealth approach to Quantitative Easing by utilizing the Standing Repo Facility to alleviate market liquidity strains without formally announcing QE [5] Group 3: Year-End Market Forecasts - Despite short-term volatility and geopolitical tensions, some analysts maintain aggressive year-end targets, with projections of the S&P 500 reaching $7,500, Bitcoin hitting $200,000, and Ethereum reaching $7,000 [6][7] - Tom Lee highlights Ethereum's strong fundamentals, including increasing stablecoin volume and app revenue, as a key factor for a potential crypto rally by year-end [7]