Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement a quarter-point rate cut amid discussions of potential candidates for the next Fed chair, with current chair Jay Powell's influence somewhat diminished due to speculation surrounding his successor [2][4]. Group 1: Rate Cut Discussion - There is a push for a half-point rate cut, but rising bond yields suggest that a quarter-point cut is more probable [1][2]. - Some Fed bank presidents may dissent against the rate cut, indicating a divided opinion within the committee [2]. Group 2: Speculation on Fed Chair Successor - Speculation regarding Powell's successor is influencing the dynamics of the upcoming Fed meeting, potentially reducing Powell's clout [4]. - Candidates like Kevin Hasset and Scott Besson are mentioned, with Hasset being favored but not without opposition from some in the bond market [5][6]. Group 3: Balance Sheet and Monetary Policy - The Fed is expected to end its period of quantitative tightening (QT) and begin expanding its balance sheet again, although not at the scale of previous quantitative easing (QE) measures [9]. - The balance sheet expansion is anticipated to align with economic growth and currency supply, rather than a significant increase relative to GDP [9][11]. - The current regime of managing ample reserves is similar to practices of other central banks globally, and concerns about the Fed's large balance sheet are considered overstated [11][12].

Fed’s Lagging Balance Sheet: The Hidden Risks of Post-QE Tightening. Photo by BeInCrypto Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead. Grab a coffee as global markets enter a period of unprecedented friction with the era of synchronized economic cycles coming to an end. While the US quietly restores liquidity, China remains locked in a state of deflation, and Japan’s rising bond yields threaten to destabilize global ca ...

Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) is perceived to be over, which is expected to provide a tailwind for the market [1][2] - Anticipation of rate cuts in the near future is expected to drive market performance in the first half of the year [2][3] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Consumer spending remains strong, as evidenced by Black Friday sales, contradicting negative predictions from Wall Street [4][6] - Household net worth is at an all-time high, creating a virtuous cycle where increased net worth boosts market performance and vice versa [6][7] Investment Opportunities - There is optimism for a year-end rally, with potential for a 3-4% increase in the market before the year's end [9][10] - Specific stocks such as Amazon and Palo Alto Networks are highlighted as strong investment opportunities due to their growth potential and strategic partnerships [12][13][14] Market Trends and Predictions - The market has shown resilience, bouncing back after recent downturns, and there is a belief that breaking new highs could trigger further rallies [9][10] - The current growth cycle is expected to continue for at least nine more months, suggesting a favorable environment for equities [11]

QT is ending.QE is coming.@dgt10011 explains what will happen to asset prices. https://t.co/HnuUUWsb4w ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) has concluded, with a total asset reduction of $2.43 trillion over three years and five months, representing a 27% decrease from its peak [2] - The Fed's balance sheet decreased by $37 billion in November, reaching $6.53 trillion, with a significant shift in asset composition expected as Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) are replaced by Treasury bills [1][4] QT and Asset Composition - The Fed's MBS holdings decreased by $16 billion in November, totaling $2.05 trillion, a 25% decline from the peak [4] - Treasury securities saw a reduction of $4 billion in November, with a total of $4.19 trillion, marking a 27.4% decrease from the peak in June 2022 [8] - The Fed plans to continue reducing MBS until they are fully off the balance sheet, while increasing T-bills, which currently stand at $195 billion [4][8] Repo Market Dynamics - The Standing Repo Facility (SRF) was utilized by banks to manage liquidity pressures, with a peak balance of $50 billion at the end of October, dropping back to zero shortly after [11][13] - The Fed expressed disappointment in banks for underutilizing the SRF, which contributed to spikes in repo market rates [14] - The SRF successfully mitigated liquidity pressures in the repo market, preventing a repeat of the 2019 blowout scenario [20] Financial Metrics and Economic Indicators - The Fed's assets as a percentage of GDP fell to 21.4% in November, indicating a potential further decline if the balance sheet remains flat while the economy grows [28] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) currently holds $908 billion, which has permanently increased the Fed's balance sheet size since the Financial Crisis [27]

Delphi Digital said on X that the Fed delivered another 25 bps cut in December, taking the fed funds rate to ~3.50–3.75%. The forward curve prices at least three more cuts through 2026 (low-3% by year-end). With QT ending on Dec. 1, a TGA drawdown, and the RRP fully depleted, this is the first net-positive liquidity backdrop since early 2022—turning policy in 2026 from a headwind to a mild tailwind. https://t.co/2FTusuwCuB ...

While I was early on the bottom call, things are finally starting to look constructive again.Glad I didn’t puke into the lows, now the critical area IMO is the $98–$100K zone and that major downtrend line.Things look much better back above there.I still think the odds of this being a lower high are around 70–80% (pulled this number out my ass).There’s still an outside shot at new ATHs if we rip out of this zone aggressively, but no sense getting ahead of ourselves.Sentiment is still pretty floored, but with ...

Market Analysis & Bitcoin Dominance - Bitcoin dominance has been increasing, defying expectations that it would decrease immediately after the end of quantitative tightening (QT) [3] - The current market situation shares similarities with 2019, where Bitcoin topped before the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion [1] - Bitcoin's top formation occurred on apathy rather than euphoria, unlike the tops in 2017 and 2021, indicating a lack of new retail investor interest [3][4] - Historically, Bitcoin dominance tends to reverse course in September, regardless of its prior direction [8] - Total 2 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin has been dropping, suggesting a predictable pattern [11] Quantitative Tightening (QT) & Federal Reserve Policy - The end of QT on August 1st, 2019, did not immediately lead to a decrease in Bitcoin dominance; it initially rose before declining when the Fed's balance sheet expanded [2][3] - The balance sheet may not expand immediately after QT ends, potentially delaying recognition until January 2026 [13] - Interest rates remain high (4%), unlike the previous cycle when Bitcoin dominance topped out with rates at 2% [30] - The difference between interest rates and the 2-year yield is a key indicator; a smaller difference or a Fed funds rate below the 2-year yield is more conducive to altcoin market performance [33] Altcoin Market & Future Outlook - Altcoins may experience another drop against Bitcoin before potentially finding a low when the Fed's balance sheet starts to expand [27] - Alt seasons typically require social risk appetite and new retail investors, which are currently lacking [23][35] - Altcoins often form a low in the summer followed by a double bottom in Q4, or vice versa [25][26][27] - Ethereum could potentially reach a new all-time high even if Bitcoin does not, but it would likely be a divergent high [24]

so let me get this straight…> the fed quietly ended qt> pumped billions back into the system> rate cuts are literally a week away> vanguard and bank of america just opened their gates to cryptoand you’re telling me you're bearish? https://t.co/8YQFqgPeQc ...

Company Overview - BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) has acquired 96,798 ether (ETH), increasing its total ETH holdings to 3.73 million tokens, valued at approximately $10.5 billion, making it the largest Ethereum treasury company [1][2] - The firm also holds 192 bitcoin (BTC), a $36 million stake in Eightco Holdings (ORBS), and $882 million in cash [2] Market Context - Digital asset treasuries (DATs) are under pressure due to declining crypto prices and stock valuations, leading many firms to stop accumulating crypto or even sell off assets [3] - BitMine is one of the few firms continuing to buy ETH despite an estimated $4 billion in unrealized losses on its ETH holdings [3] Strategic Insights - The upcoming Ethereum upgrade, Fusaka, scheduled for December 3, is expected to enhance scalability, security, and usability, motivating BitMine to increase its ETH acquisitions by 39% [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to halt quantitative tightening and potentially cut interest rates in December, which could positively impact ETH prices and stabilize the crypto market [4]