Market Trends & Expectations - The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is closing back in on 4% [1][2] - Economists anticipate consumer prices rose slightly more than in July, with an annualized rate just under 3% [1] - A surprise drop in wholesale prices (PPI) occurred in August, falling by 0.1%, against consensus estimates expecting an increase [1] - The market was surprisingly not up more despite the magnitude of the PPI data [4][6] Potential Monetary Policy Implications - If the PPI trend continues, it could theoretically lead to deflation, although it's too early to confirm [3] - Continued reports of this nature suggest rates are likely to continue to come down, which would be positive for the markets [3][4] - If upcoming CPI data doesn't completely contradict the PPI data, the Fed may be compelled to cut rates [5] - The possibility of a 50 basis points rate cut, previously considered dramatic, now seems more plausible given weakening labor and inflation data [5][6]

Monetary Policy & Economy - Stephen Miran's confirmation hearing focuses on interest rates and the economy [1] News Source - The information is sourced from a live confirmation hearing related to Trump's Fed pick [1]

Macro Environment - The macro environment is currently benign, with stocks at a record high and the economy stable, recession is not expected [1] - Earnings growth has been good and the tariff situation has generally abated [1] - The distress ratio is under 5%, and the amount of bank loans trading under 80 is 4% [2] - Inflation has clearly come down, with ongoing debate about whether it will settle at 2% or 3% [3] Company Performance & Investment Strategy - The company manages $100 billion of capital and invests in hundreds of companies, observing good earnings across the board [2] - The company is not seeing major challenges in pricing, despite tariffs, particularly in the areas where it invests [4][5] - The market has largely absorbed current tariff levels without significant inflationary impact [6] - The company focuses on picking good businesses and credits, rather than relying heavily on maintenance covenants [11][12] Interest Rates & Market Outlook - The forward curve suggests five rate cuts over the next year, though the company considers this potentially aggressive [7] - Long rates, particularly the 10-year and 30-year rates, are key considerations given the size of the deficit [8] - The market is digesting the cost of capital, and current levels are not considered worrisome [8]

Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Kansas City Fed's 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium suggested potential future rate cuts [1] - Yahoo Finance interviewed current and former Fed presidents regarding their perspectives on the US economy, inflation, and interest rates [1] Speakers & Affiliations - The discussion included insights from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid [1] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack shared her views [1] - Former St Louis Fed President Jim Bullard contributed to the conversation [1] - Former Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker provided his analysis [1] - Former Kansas City Fed President Esther George also participated [1] Yahoo Finance Resources - Yahoo Finance offers free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, comprehensive market data, and advanced tools [1] - The platform provides information to help users manage their financial lives [1]

Bitcoin is at $117,000 and the Fed hasn't even cut rates yet 👀 https://t.co/rhsnaCc3eo ...

Interest Rate Trends & Analysis - The global rates market influences domestic rates, with the German 30-year yield reaching its highest since 2011 [1] - Sideways to higher movement is expected for long-term rates, influenced by debt and deficits across various regions including the UK, EU, Japan, and the US [3] - Technical analysis of 10-year yields suggests a midpoint range of 416 to 420 basis points as a key level [4] - A close below 415 basis points could reverse the case for higher rates [4] Spread Analysis - The 30-year minus 10-year spread is the widest it has been since 2021, indicating potentially higher rates on the long end [5] - The 10-year minus 5-year spread is also at its widest in four years, at 47 basis points [5][6] - Curve steepening is anticipated, with two-year yields potentially decreasing while 10, 20, and 30-year yields remain stable [6] Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to perform better than anticipated, supporting a steeper yield curve and higher long-end rates [9] - Inflation may not be the primary driver of long-end rates [8] - Stagflation is not considered a major concern, with a more positive economic outlook prevailing [8][9]

Interest Rate Trends - Rates on new 30-year loans have fallen for two consecutive days [1] - Average 30-year loan rates are at their lowest level since early April [1] - Rates have decreased across various loan types [1]

Market Trends & Drivers - Bitcoin received a boost from the tech rally [1] - Short liquidations triggered a surge in Bitcoin's price [2] - Bitcoin ETF inflows reached over 1 billion USD, marking the biggest day this year [2] - Corporate buys and ETF inflows have supported Bitcoin, keeping it above 100,000 USD for over 60 days [3] - The rebound in crypto started in mid-April [3] External Factors & Potential Risks - Interest rates are a key focus for Bitcoin [4] - The Fed meeting at the end of the month will be interesting to watch for its impact on Bitcoin [4] - Potential termination of Fed chair Jerome Powell hinted at by President Trump influenced the market [3] Bitcoin Performance & Characteristics - Bitcoin outperformed gold [5] - Tech up and rates down is a good formula for Bitcoin [4] - Bitcoin reached the 110,000 USD level [2]

Market Focus - Bond investors are closely watching the June jobs report as a crucial indicator influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the bond market's performance for the remainder of the year [1]