7月CPI、PPI数据将公布；新发国债等债券利息将交增值税；港股市场下调最低上落价位的第一阶段将生 效；2025世界机器人大会将举行。 开源证券指出，CPI方面，结合农产品批发价格指数等高频数据，预计7月CPI环比在0%左右，同比或 在-0.5%左右。PPI方面，结合CRB现货指数等高频数据，预计7月PPI同比、环比均有回升。 新发国债等债券利息将交增值税 近日，财政部、税务总局就国债、地方政府债券、金融债券利息收入增值税政策有关事项发布公告称，自 2025年8月8日起，对在该日期之后（含当日）新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复 征收增值税。 港股市场下调最低上落价位的第一阶段将生效 【重磅新闻】 7月CPI、PPI数据将公布 8月9日，国家统计局将公布7月CPI、PPI数据。 7月28日，香港交易所宣布，香港证券市场下调最低上落价位的第一阶段将于下周一（8月4日）生效。所谓 最低上落价位是每只股票的最小价格变动单位，这项措施将有助于降低市场的交易成本并提升交易效率。 其中，10港元—20港元区间的证券买卖最低上落价位从0.02港元调整为0.01港元，20港元—50港元区间的最 低上落价位从 ...

Group 1: National Fertility Subsidy - The national fertility subsidy covers a wider range, with a total subsidy of 10,800 CNY per newborn over three years, compared to a median of 6,600 CNY and an average of 8,700 CNY for local subsidies[3][16] - The first-year budget for the national fertility subsidy is approximately 100 billion CNY, expected to promote the birth of about 330,000 newborns[4][16] - The short-term leverage effect of the subsidy is estimated at 0.9 times, potentially increasing to about 1.4 times in the medium to long term, with a GDP increase of 926 billion CNY in 2025[4][19] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity[5][13] - The production PMI decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, while new orders, new export orders, and imports fell to 49.4%, 47.1%, and 44.7% respectively[5][22] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to boost commodity prices, with July PPI projected to improve slightly to -3.0% year-on-year[5][29] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction PMI fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, indicating a potential continuation of the slowdown in infrastructure investment[6][35] - The service sector remains relatively stable, with a service PMI of 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points, and new orders declining to 46.3%[6][42] - Infrastructure investment may be affected by high base effects in Q3 and Q4, requiring policy measures to mitigate the impact[6][35] Group 4: Risks and Economic Outlook - Risks include unexpected policy changes and a potential recession in the U.S. economy[7][45] - The overall economic impact of the fertility subsidy includes direct boosts to consumer spending and indirect effects on child-rearing and housing demand[4][18]

Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The current commodity futures market is driven by a combination of "strong expectations," "weak realities," and "speculative demand," with PPI expectations for April 2026 turning positive[2] - As of June 2025, the CPI increased by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly below the 2% inflation target, while PPI fell to a new low of -3.6%, marking 33 consecutive months of negative growth[2] - Recent commodity price movements include coking coal surpassing 1200 CNY/ton, lithium carbonate exceeding 80000 CNY/ton, rebar breaking 3300 CNY/ton, and live pig prices exceeding 15000 CNY[2] Group 2: Policy Implications and Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy aims to establish a high-level market system and correct local government behaviors, rather than directly targeting price increases[4] - The current low inflation environment is influenced by supply-side factors, structural adjustments, and global industrial roles, validating China's manufacturing advantages[2] - The speculative demand has reignited due to the combination of strong expectations and weak realities, leading to increased price volatility in the commodity market[2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The commodity market currently reflects a positive price recovery expectation, with potential for PPI to turn positive by April 2026 if current price levels are maintained[4] - The report highlights risks including unexpected downturns in real estate, insufficient policy implementation, and underwhelming effects of new real estate policies[4] - The "anti-involution" policy is not necessarily synonymous with rising prices, as it focuses on optimizing supply-demand dynamics rather than broad monetary expansion[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental index from July 21 to July 25, 2025, covering various aspects such as production, demand, prices, transportation, inventory, and financing. It shows that the fundamental high - frequency index is stable, with different trends in each sub - index, including changes in growth rates and fluctuations in specific indicators [1][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.8 points (previous value 126.7 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds weakens, with the signal factor at 4.6% (previous value 4.7%) [1][9]. 2. Production - The industrial production high - frequency index is 126.1 (previous value 126.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The PX operating rate has been declining continuously. The current PX operating rate is 82.4% (previous value 83.2%) [1][13]. 3. Real Estate Sales - The real estate sales high - frequency index shows that property transactions are picking up. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 21.0 million square meters (previous value 17.1 million square meters), and the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 7.8% (previous value 6.7%) [25]. 4. Infrastructure Investment - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 119.8 (previous value 119.5), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 4.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt devices has decreased, with the current operating rate at 28.8% (previous value 32.8%) [9][34]. 5. Export - The export high - frequency index is 143.9 (previous value 144.0), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has been declining continuously, with the current CCFI index at 1261 points (previous value 1304 points) [9][36]. 6. Consumption - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.7 (previous value 119.7), with a week - on - week increase of 0.0 points and a year - on - year increase of 2.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. Retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicle manufacturers continue to rise. The current retail sales of passenger vehicle manufacturers are 58,207 units (previous value 47,548 units), and the wholesale sales are 57,826 units (previous value 46,085 units) [9][49]. 7. CPI - The month - on - month CPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value 0.0%). Fruit prices continue to decline. The average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg (previous value 7.3 yuan/kg) [1][55]. 8. PPI - The month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.2% (previous value 0.1%). The price of thermal coal has rebounded. The closing price of thermal coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 649 yuan/ton (previous value 637 yuan/ton) [1][61]. 9. Transportation - The transportation high - frequency index is 129.2 (previous value 129.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 8.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. Passenger volume and flight operation numbers have decreased. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 39 million person - times (previous value 41.14 million person - times), and the number of domestic flights is 14,428 flights (previous value 14,653 flights) [2][71]. 10. Inventory - The inventory high - frequency index is 161.0 (previous value 160.9), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 9.4 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. Soda ash inventory has declined. The current soda ash inventory is 1.874 million tons (previous value 1.895 million tons) [2][77]. 11. Financing - The financing high - frequency index is 232.7 (previous value 232.1), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 points and a year - on - year increase of 29.6 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. Net financing of local government bonds and credit bonds has increased. The net financing of local government bonds is 292.9 billion yuan (previous value 150.5 billion yuan), and the net financing of credit bonds is 54.9 billion yuan (previous value 44.6 billion yuan) [2][87].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that economic growth influences tax revenue, but various factors can cause discrepancies between GDP growth and tax revenue growth [1][2][3] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, total tax revenue is expected to exceed 155 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 80% of total fiscal revenue [2] - Tax revenue, excluding export tax rebates, is projected to surpass 85 trillion yuan, while social insurance fees and land transfer fees collected by tax authorities will exceed 70 trillion yuan [2][3] Group 2 - The proportion of direct taxes is expected to exceed 40% during the "14th Five-Year Plan," reflecting an increase of 1 percentage point compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan," indicating an optimization of the tax structure [2] - There has been a phenomenon of "inverted growth" between GDP and tax revenue, with GDP growing by 5.3% in the first half of 2025, while tax revenue decreased by 1.2%, resulting in a "scissor difference" of -6.5% [2][3] - For 2024, the expected scissor difference is -8.4%, with tax revenue projected to decline by 3.4%, marking the largest drop since the "business tax to value-added tax" reform in 2016 [3] Group 3 - The relationship between GDP and tax revenue is generally positively correlated, with economic growth being the fundamental support for tax revenue growth [3] - Price fluctuations, particularly the Producer Price Index (PPI), significantly impact tax revenue, with PPI changes leading to corresponding changes in tax revenue [3][4] - The PPI is expected to decline by 2.2% in 2024, with the decline in the second half of the year influenced by international commodity price fluctuations and insufficient domestic demand [4] Group 4 - Structural changes in the economy, such as the decline in traditional industries like real estate, have led to slower tax revenue growth, while emerging industries contribute less to overall tax revenue due to their smaller scale and existing tax incentives [4] - The construction of a unified national market is emphasized in the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on accelerating the establishment of this market [5] - Tax authorities are prioritizing the rectification of irregularities in investment attraction, ensuring that local tax authorities do not obstruct normal business operations and closely monitoring tax reporting anomalies [6]

国家税务总局局长胡静林：近两年中国税收受PPI的影响比较直接从税收与经济的协调性来看，经济决定税收，但也会有一些因素影响，造成经济与税收不完全同步。比如减税降费因素，我国近年来减税降费力度比较大，这对我国的经济增长具有拉动作用，对长期税收也是有利的，但是会减少当期的税收收入。再如价格变动因素，GDP增速是以不变价计算，税收是以现价计算，价格特别是PPI对税收的影响很大，PPI的增减会带来的税收收入同幅度的增减，可以说这两年的税收受PPI的影响比较直接。 ...

从过去10年看，PPI的增减会带来税收收入的同幅度增减。可以说，这两年的税收受PPI影响是比较直接 的。 从行业结构看，占比最大的是制造业税收，近年来均保持在30%左右，反映出以制造业为代表的实体经 济在税收上的"压舱石"作用；增速最快的是信息软件和技术服务等现代服务业，其税收占比，2024年较 2020年提高了1.6个百分点。 从税种结构看，"十四五"期间直接税比重超过40%，较"十三五"期间提高了1个百分点，反映出税收的 调节分配功能在增强，我国税制结构在优化。 从税收与经济的协调性来看，经济决定税收，但也会有一些因素影响，造成经济与税收不完全同步。比 如，减税降费因素，近年来我国减税降费力度较大，这对经济增长具有拉动作用，对长期税收也是有利 的，但是会减少当期的税收收入。再如，价格变动因素，GDP增速是以不变价计算，税收收入是以现价 计算，价格特别是工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）对税收收入影响很大。从过去10年看，PPI的增减会 带来税收收入的同幅度增减。可以说，这两年的税收受PPI影响是比较直接的。还如，税源结构因素， 近年来随着产业结构的调整升级和科技创新，我国经济税源发生了一些结构性趋势性变化。 ...

钢材出口的品种分布情况如何？ 今年卷板类产品的直接出口占比下降，而钢坯和螺纹钢的出口占比显著提升。 钢坯的出口量几乎翻了 3 到 4 倍，因为这些品种不受东南亚和韩国等地区反倾 销政策影响，这些地区主要针对热卷、冷轧、中板及造船板进行反倾销。而随 着 7 月份国内价格上涨，海外市场价格未能跟上，新接订单显著下降，这可能 对话钢铁专家：如何看钢铁行业反内卷 20250725 摘要 上半年钢材出口创新高，预计全年出口量将超过 1 亿吨，同比增长约 10%，主要受益于海外需求旺盛及中国钢材的成本优势，但 7 月以来新 接订单显著下降，可能导致四季度出口数据恶化。 黑色系产业链自 2022 年以来持续去库存，各环节维持低库存或中低库 存水平，期货市场深度贴水现货，显示市场缺乏单边投机行为。 7 月以来，市场交易逻辑从碳元素成本坍塌转向"反内卷"题材炒作， 受中央财经委员会会议影响，焦煤、多晶硅等品种涨幅显著，但钢铁和 煤炭行业尚未出现明显减产迹象。 上半年电炉钢厂利润微薄，高炉钢厂利润维持在 100-200 元之间，主要 得益于动力煤和焦煤让利，而铁矿石价格相对稳定，碳元素成为黑色系 市场变化的主要因素。 焦煤价格近 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the bond market and the overall economic environment in China, particularly focusing on the corporate sector's profitability and the relationship between stock and bond markets [1][2][4][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Anti-Involution Policy**: Aimed at curbing low-price competition and enhancing product quality, this policy seeks to improve corporate profit margins from the current 19.5% to a historical average of 22% [1][8][9]. - **Profitability Pressure**: Chinese corporate profitability is under significant pressure, with the profit-to-revenue ratio at a historical low. The policy's effectiveness in improving profitability is contingent on demand-side support [1][8]. - **PPI and Profit Margins**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is crucial for improving industrial profit margins. A PPI increase to 2% is necessary for a 10% profit margin recovery, but achieving this is challenging given the current PPI of -3% [1][12][13]. - **Long-term Interest Rates**: The anti-involution measures are expected to gradually raise the long-term interest rate central tendency by 15-20 basis points, but this will take time to materialize [14][15]. Market Dynamics - **Bond Market Challenges**: The bond market faces headwinds from rising commodity prices and a strong stock market, with a notable "stock-bond seesaw" effect where a 1% increase in stocks corresponds to a 0.045% decrease in bond futures [2][3][5][17]. - **Investment Strategies**: Current strategies should focus on monitoring policy implementation and adjusting to short-term market fluctuations, with expected yield impacts in the range of 10-20 basis points [15][25]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector-Specific Issues**: The anti-involution policy aims to address issues in sectors with excessive competition, such as coal and steel, where profit margins are severely impacted by price wars and demand shrinkage [4][7]. - **International Comparison**: Compared to countries like the US and Japan, which maintain a profit-to-GDP ratio around 25%, China's current ratio indicates a need for structural reforms to enhance profitability [8][9]. - **Market Sentiment and Risk**: The relationship between stock and bond markets is influenced by investor sentiment, with significant volatility observed during periods of rapid market changes [20][21][22][23]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of the anti-involution policy on corporate profitability, market dynamics, and investment strategies.

[Table_Title] 否极泰来 [Table_Summary] ►市场债基久期或普遍回到相对安全的位置 不过部分投资者仍担忧，若商品价格持续上涨，拉动 PPI 等通胀指标 显著回升，是否会进一步加剧债市调整？对此，我们倾向于可以对标 2021 年的债市行情。在 PPI同比高位的背景下，2021 年 7 月 7 日国常会 上超预期提及降准。并且在中下游企业难承高价的背景下，监管政策介入 要求煤价回归合理区间，脱离经济基本面的商品市场泡沫破灭。 ►债市或已扛过最难时刻 综合资金面、赎回压力、风险偏好，债市可能已经扛过了最难的时候。 与此同时，中美谈判和 7 月政治局会议的不确定性都将月底陆续落地，模糊 不清的时候最有利于风险偏好抬升，而未知变量逐渐清晰的时候，风险偏好 或短期降温，股市在高位，可能也有回调压力。 接下来，资金面在央行呵护及月初季节性宽松的带动下，或更容易修 复，调整之后有性价比的票息品种可能受益。而市场风险偏好，或者说股市 证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 27 日 资金利率抬升、风险偏好转强、赎回规模放大，"三座大山"成为过去 一周债市大幅调整的 ...