Tom Lee's 2026 Outlook: The Start of Expansion After Three Years of SuppressionIn interviews with The Prof G Pod (Dec 12) and Squawk Box (Dec 15), Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee shared his 2026 outlook.He argues markets have been suppressed by six "extinction-level" events and Fed hesitation, crushing corporate "animal spirits." He believes the business cycle only truly starts next year when rates drop and AI earnings grow, benefiting risk assets.Consequently, he sees 2026 mirroring this year: bearish first, then ...

Core Insights - US inflation slowed more than expected in November, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.7% year over year, below market expectations of 3.1% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 2.6% year over year, also missing forecasts of 3.0%, indicating a notable deceleration in price pressures [2] Market Implications - The softer-than-expected inflation data suggests that inflation is cooling faster than anticipated, which may lead to a shift in Federal Reserve policy towards a more accommodative stance sooner than previously expected [3] - Markets are likely to interpret the data as supportive of rate cuts, particularly for early 2026, as lower inflation reduces pressure on real yields and the US dollar, benefiting risk assets [4] Crypto Market Reaction - A downside inflation surprise typically acts as a macro tailwind for the crypto market, improving liquidity conditions and risk appetite [5] - Short-term price action in the crypto market will depend on how quickly markets adjust Fed policy expectations and whether follow-through buying occurs after the initial reaction [5]

Japan’s households stepped up their quest for yield by boosting risk assets to more than a fifth of their total assets for the first time, as prolonged inflation erodes the value of cash holdings https://t.co/tNgB3ed0Mu ...

Bitcoin slipped in Asia trading hours while other risk assets gained after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates and expressed optimism about the economy https://t.co/aYhNYmpJaP ...

currently also in camp that you want to be long going into back half of 2026 but really am not convinced Bitcoin/ETH/SOL/HYPE will be the fastest horses for risk assetsfejau (@fejau_inc):@Bing0to yeah the thesis has been- macro growth scare/shutdown impact/monetary liquidity concerns in Q4- same time as everyone selling cause 4 year cycle top- victory laps about 4 year cycle being right again- q4 dat unwind which has been ongoing, dont think they will be big sellers ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could significantly alter U.S. monetary policy, impacting risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin while affecting savers and bondholders [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Monetary Policy - The Bessent-Hassett duo may represent a fundamental shift from the post-2008 monetary regime, transforming the Federal Reserve into a liquidity tool aligned with Treasury policy [2][3]. - This alignment could prioritize growth over austerity, reminiscent of the 1940s and 1950s, potentially benefiting risk assets such as Bitcoin [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - Bessent predicts GDP growth of 4% or more in Q1 2026, driven by strong consumer activity and favorable macroeconomic trends [5]. - The sentiment suggests that coordinated policy efforts could enable economic growth, as shrinking a large debt load may not be feasible without risking systemic issues [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Hassett has shown extreme bullishness towards equities and Bitcoin, being referred to as a "turbo dove" for risk assets by industry insiders [6].

Group 1 - The expectation is for US interest rates to decrease to around 3% by mid-next year, which, along with ongoing economic growth and a moderation in the dollar, creates a favorable environment for risk assets and equities [1] - Technology stocks continue to dominate the US market, comprising almost 40% of the index and performing well, but diversification has proven effective this year as the US stock market has underperformed compared to other equity markets, including the UK [2] - There is a broadening out in market performance, although aggregate upside is limited due to high valuations; however, profit and dividend growth are expected to drive equities [3]

Bitcoin climbed above $89,000, clawing back ground after a more than a month-long selloff, as a broad rally in risk assets and easing volatility gave traders room to push higher https://t.co/SNOSQtDtfs ...

Market Trends & Risk Repricing - Risk assets, including equities, AI, and Bitcoin, are undergoing repricing, viewed as a healthy correction rather than a bear market [1][2] - AI is expected to positively impact productivity and dampen inflation over the next 5 to 10 years [5] - Concerns exist regarding large numbers in AI investments and potential circular deals, reminiscent of the Internet bubble [4][5][6] Digital Assets & Stablecoins - Hyperliquid's native token HYPE has shown unusual positive movement while most other tokens are down [2] - Stablecoins are here to stay, with Circle being recognized as a highly regulated and conservative stablecoin with reserves managed by BlackRock [10] - Increased institutional use of stablecoins is observed, expanding beyond crypto traders to treasurers, Visa, MasterCard, and major banks [12] - Middle Eastern banks in Abu Dhabi and Dubai are developing use cases for blockchain in stablecoins, particularly Dollar Stablecoins like USDC [13] Financial Sector & Credit Markets - The US has 4500 banks, with regional and community banks providing about half of the lending to small businesses [20] - Potential consolidation opportunities exist in regional and community banks in the US to create cost synergies [20] - High debt levels, particularly sovereign debt from the US, pose a dark cloud overhanging the markets [17] - After a long period of near-zero interest rates, a correction in credit spreads would not be surprising [15][16]

Market Correlation - Bitcoin and S&P 500 have shown consistent correlation since early 2022, influenced by monetary policy and geopolitical events [1] - S&P 500's resilience signals investor risk appetite, positively impacting crypto, while sharp stock declines lead to Bitcoin declines [2] Bitcoin Performance & Potential - Bitcoin underperformed S&P 500 in the past week, dipping -12.2% and nearing sub-$100K levels, suggesting oversold conditions [3] - Extreme crypto volatility often results in a "rubber-band" effect, potentially leading to a significant bounce-back after selling pressure eases [3] - If S&P 500 stabilizes or rises, Bitcoin's larger drawdown creates more upside potential for a relief rally [4] - Decoupling of Bitcoin and S&P 500 may present an opportunity for traders awaiting positive momentum in stock markets [4]