into that. For more on the markets, let's bring in Strategus chief market strategist, Chris Verone, who joins us here at Post 9 on this Wednesday. Good to see you, Chris. Good to be here, Carl.Thank you. >> So, the indexes aren't moving a ton, but the dollar's creeping up and the VIX is creeping up and the tenure has been sticky. Is there an a rotation in defensiveness.>> Yeah, I think we're always on guard for any subtle shifts to the macro. And let's take those one by one. on the dollar.I just think peopl ...

Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Sam Bis alongside Marley Kaden over in Chicago. Joining us now to discuss this week's action and what lies ahead for the market and the economy.I'm very pleased to say is Paul Chhatz, who is the president and chief investment officer at Heritage Capital LLC. Thanks so much for joining us, Paul. Happy Friday to you.So, it's the Wall Street metaphor. Don't fight the Fed seems to be the mantra here. Is that what you're saying.So those expressions are often trit and not back ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran does not expect President Trump's tariffs to have a significant inflationary effect on the U.S. economy, differing from the majority opinion among Federal Open Market Committee voters [1][2]. Summary by Sections Inflation and Tariffs - Miran believes there is no material inflation resulting from tariffs, citing a lack of evidence and no significant difference in inflation rates between import-intensive core goods and overall core goods [2]. - He noted that if tariffs were driving inflation, one would expect to see a higher inflation rate in imports, which has not been observed [2]. Economic Outlook - Despite current inflation running above the Fed's 2% target, Miran anticipates stronger economic growth in the second half of the year, attributing weaker growth in the first half to uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade and tax policies [3]. - He also predicts that Trump's immigration policies could lead to disinflation in the economy, suggesting that an influx of immigrants could initially drive up shelter prices, but closing borders could have a disinflationary effect [3][4]. Federal Reserve Board Appointment - Miran was confirmed to the Fed Board of Governors and will serve until January 31, 2026, while taking an unpaid leave from his position as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors [5].

And he joins us now first on CNBC, newly confirmed Fed Governor Steven Myron. Our Steve Leeman, of course, also with us. It's great to see you, Mr.. Governor. First of all, congratulations on the confirmation and getting inside the Fed. >> Thank you and thanks for having me back.It's great to see you. >> Well, I I'm glad that you're here because I think a lot of people want to know why you desented first of all for 50 basis point cut when the rest of the committee voted on quarter point. >> Yeah, of course. ...

Traders are betting the European Central Bank’s interest rate-cutting cycle has likely come to an end after President Christine Lagarde said growth risks in the region are more balanced and the disinflationary process is over https://t.co/87Oy6lyKxZ ...

Inflation Trends in Asia - Excluding Japan and Bangladesh, the average inflation rate across Asia's ten largest economies is a low 13% [1] - Even in countries meeting central bank targets, a disinflationary trend is observed [1]

CitiPoint Asia: Is The China A-share Bubble About To Burst? Or Is It Bursting Already? Markets Mohammed Apabhai Aug 28, 2025 10:43AM CST Source: Citi Trading Strategies 1. The rally has been significantly driven by an increase in margin loans and fast money inflows. This seems to be making brokers and the Government nervous and steps are being taken to curb the flow of funds into the margin loans. Chart 2: China Rally Vulnerable To Unwinding Of Retail Margin Loans 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Asia Trading S ...

Central Bank Independence & Monetary Policy - Central bank independence is crucial for price stability and economic growth [2][5] - The speaker emphasizes the need to fight for central bank independence, drawing on Germany's post-1948 experience [3][4][5] - The speaker expects Jerome Powell to deliver a clear message on price stability and the central bank's mandate [7] Interest Rate & Inflation - The speaker believes interest rates are currently in equilibrium at 2%, aligning with the target [8][9] - The speaker suggests inflation is potentially no longer the primary concern, but disinflation risks need monitoring [9][10] - Service inflation remains high, above 3%, necessitating a wait-and-see approach to monetary policy [10][11] Economic Outlook - A mild recession in Germany is possible this year, but economic growth is expected to return next year [7][8] - The speaker notes the potential for imported disinflation from a strengthening Euro and cheap Chinese goods [10] - The bar for cutting interest rates is high, requiring significant evidence to warrant a change in monetary policy [12]

Inflation Data Analysis - Headline CPI came in below expectations at 27%, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, was higher than anticipated at 31% [1] - Markets focused on the headline CPI number, leading to an equities rally and a drop in 2-year yields [2] Monetary Policy Outlook - Weak unemployment data reported on August 1st raised concerns about disinflation [2] - Prior to the CPI release, Fed funds futures priced in an 82% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the September 17th FOMC meeting [3] - Post CPI release, the probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September 17th FOMC meeting surged past 90%, with markets pricing in 60 basis points of easing by the end of 2025 [3] - PPI data on August 14th and retail sales data on August 15th are expected to provide a clearer picture of the Fed's coming moves [3]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data reinforces expectations of a rate cut, focusing on the magnitude rather than the likelihood [2] - The Fed's decision to cut rates is primarily driven by concerns about employment, despite stalled disinflation [2] Dual Mandate Considerations - The Fed's weighting of its dual mandate (employment and inflation) depends on proximity to goals; with inflation closer to target, employment concerns gain importance [4][5] - Historically, the Fed tends to act more decisively when concerned about employment [4] - Some Fed speakers express reservations about inflation remaining a persistent problem [6] Risks and Uncertainties - Tariffs potentially seeping into prices could cause inflation to rise, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [8] - The Fed is willing to accept stalled disinflation to a certain extent, but dislikes it, tempering enthusiasm for rate cuts [9]