Inflation Trends & CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 03% month-over-month, aligning with estimates, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 02%, slightly below expectations [1] - Year-over-year, consumer inflation increased by 27%, and core inflation rose by 29% [1][2] - Inflation is heating up slightly compared to the previous month, where both headline and core inflation increased by only 01% [2] - Core CPI has been consistently lower than estimated for the fifth consecutive month [3] Tariff Impact & Business Strategies - Initial data suggests that tariff increases are contributing less than a third to the monthly CPI increase, with some pressure emerging in categories first exposed to tariffs [7] - Businesses are employing various strategies, including inventory management, alternative sourcing, cost spreading, and margin adjustments, to buffer the impact of tariffs and avoid passing costs directly to consumers [9] - Apparel prices rose by 04%, footwear increased by 07%, and furniture/furnishings prices also saw a rise [8][31] - The effective tariff rate in June was only 10%, while the average tariff rate was around 15%, indicating that the full impact of tariffs has yet to materialize [14] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging decision regarding interest rate cuts, amidst pressure from the White House and the need to maintain its 2% inflation target [4][17] - The current federal funds rate is considered moderately restrictive, putting downward pressure on demand [18] - There is a risk that prolonged elevated inflation could become ingrained in people's expectations, potentially settling around 3% [20] - The Fed is closely monitoring core services inflation, which has been stubbornly slow to decline, to ensure momentum towards the 2% target [21][25] - The FOMC is divided on future rate cuts, with varying opinions on the number of cuts in 2025 [29] Specific Price Changes - Beef prices saw a significant increase of 2%, while egg prices decreased by 74% [32][33] - New vehicle prices dropped by 03%, and used cars/trucks decreased by 07% [34] - Shelter costs moderated, increasing by 02% compared to May's 03% rise [35] - The energy index rose by 09% in June, with the gas index increasing by 1% [36]

July 7, 2025 05:41 PM GMT Key Takeaways Global EM Strategist EM Flows Driven by USD, But by How Much? We leave our views unchanged ahead of shifting tariff deadlines. We see lower yields and a weaker USD, which should help drive EM inflows. Must reads from Global EM Strategy LatAm Macro Strategy – MXN: The Road to 18.00 and Below | 7-Jul-2025 MXN positioning is only mildly long despite its recent rally and the currency has decoupled from domestic risks. USD weakness offsets lower carry, but the peso remains ...

Welcome back to Spockbox. Earning season right around the corner. Let's talk markets now with Emily Roland, the co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.Emily, good morning to you. Um, we're pretty much at record highs in the S&P 500 as well as the NASDAQ. That's a terrible setup or a very difficult setup going into earning season.Where do you stand on this rally in general in terms of the strength of it. Yeah, Melissa, you know, there's a lot of things going right from a technic ...

30 June 2025 | 12:14PM EDT US Daily: Shifting to a September Cut and a Lower Terminal Rate (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 ...

Market Outperformance & Capital Reallocation - Emerging markets and non-dollar European equities/fixed income are expected to continue outperforming in the second half of the year [2] - Capital is being reallocated away from the US towards regions with larger fiscal stimulus, driving growth in European and emerging market economies [2] - This capital reallocation is pushing emerging market equities to record elevated levels [3] - Diversification away from the US into the rest of the world presents a target-rich environment for investment [6] - Low ownership in non-US markets creates great opportunities for investors allocating capital [7] Monetary Policy & Disinflation - A weaker US dollar is creating a disinflationary backdrop for the rest of the world [4][5] - Emerging market central banks are cutting rates more aggressively, with the percentage of countries cutting rates jumping from 28% to over 60% in one month [4][5] - The industry anticipates a multiyear, virtuous cycle where central bankers can lower rates and focus on growth [4] Trade & Geopolitics - Trade negotiations and the tariff backdrop are central to emerging markets investment performance [8][9] - The US administration's decisions regarding trade will send an important message to the rest of the world [9] - The US has effectively weaponized its current account and capital account, discouraging inward investment [10]

Here's the question for me. What risks are actually worth managing at the moment. Because for a lot of people, they're being rewarded by just ignoring pretty much everything.It's amazing. John. It reminds us a bit of the talking head song, same as it ever was, just looking back a week.You saw that typical geopolitical risk management narrative playing out with the dollar briefly catching a bid. You saw oil prices obviously higher, gold getting a bid, and all of that has quickly reversed. This is one of the ...

27 May 2025 | 1:50PM BST Core inflation, as measured by our GS TRIM (which removes outlier categories from the CPI basket), fell sharply (by 0.5pp) in Czechia and Poland (to 3.3%yoy and 3.6%yoy respectively), but rose by significantly in Ukraine (up 0.7pp to 11.5%yoy). Elsewhere, core inflation was broadly unchanged in Hungary (5.2%yoy), Israel (3.1%yoy), Romania (4.7%yoy), Russia (9.4%yoy), South Africa (3.5%yoy) and Turkey (33.3%yoy). Notably, the core number ran above the headline figure in Czechia, Hung ...

Group 1 - Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. is positioned to benefit from the new economic cycle in Argentina, characterized by financial liberalization and disinflation [1] - The company is expected to capitalize on the changing economic landscape, which may present new investment opportunities [1]