Welcome to Market Catalyst. I'm Julie Hyman. We're 30 minutes into the US trading day, so let's get to the pre-market catalyst we're watching this hour.First up, we'll push ahead to a big week for markets with jobs and inflation data on deck. Plus, we'll bring you the big takeaways from Super Bowl commercials and talk investing in women's sports with former NFL player and executive Jason Wright. And we'll have more on the state of the insurance industry after a $100 billion selloff.We're talking health insu ...

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) surged 6% as U.S. planned layoffs more than tripled in January to their highest level since 2009, raising hopes the Federal Reserve will cut rates to support the economy and put a floor under risk assets down nearly 50% from highs.The Layoff SurgeU.S. companies announced plans to cut 108,435 jobs in January — a 205% surge from the prior month and a 17-year high, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Year-over-year, announced cuts rose 118%, signaling sharp labor ...

Earnings Reports - Microsoft and Meta both beat expectations, with Meta increasing its CapEx spending to $17 billion, a 41% growth from last year [4] - Microsoft stock fell 10% post-earnings, while Meta's stock rose 10%, indicating differing market reactions despite similar news [5] - Meta's average revenue per user reached $16.56, up 16% year-over-year, marking 10 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth [9] - Microsoft continues to see solid growth in its cloud segment, but concerns arise about reaching a peak [10] - Tesla's earnings report showed declines in deliveries and production, with the stock initially rising but then fading [12] - Apple reported record sales with iPhone revenue exceeding $85 billion and services revenue surpassing $30 billion, but the stock declined due to perceived lack of investment in AI [16] Health Insurance Sector - UnitedHealth's stock dropped 20% after projecting a revenue decline in 2026, the first such decline in decades, influenced by proposed minimal increases in payment rates [18] - Other health insurance stocks also fell, with Humana down 21%, CVS down 14%, and Molina Healthcare down 8% [19] Travel and Leisure Industry - Royal Caribbean's stock rose 19% following stronger-than-expected guidance, indicating double-digit growth in revenue and earnings [21] - Southwest Airlines also saw a 19% increase in stock price, projecting a 300% rise in EPS for 2026 compared to 2025 [22] - The performance of these companies suggests underlying demand in the travel and leisure sector [23] Upcoming Earnings - Anticipation builds for Amazon and Alphabet's earnings reports, with a focus on Amazon's AWS performance and Alphabet's investment strategies in AI [24][27] - Other notable companies reporting include Uber, Qualcomm, and several pharmaceutical firms [28] Macro Economic Insights - The upcoming jobs data is expected to be significant, with previous reports showing only 50,000 jobs added, raising concerns about potential negative revisions [36] - Consumer confidence remains low, attributed to persistent inflation and rising prices affecting daily life [39][40] - The political landscape may further influence consumer perceptions of the economy, especially with midterm elections approaching [43]

Accessible version Global Economic Weekly Geopolitics takes over Davos Global Letter: Geopolitics takes over Davos While it is too early to tell, the current geopolitical order may be evolving significantly. Traditional US allies like Canada seem to be considering a diversification and risk management strategy for US relations. In our view, amid higher geopolitical tensions, influence over strategic resources and geographies, especially choke points, is at stake. Greenland tariffs were suspended, and the us ...

分组1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady this week, with no new projections anticipated [37][38] - There is significant interest in the press conference for insights on the Fed's future rate decisions and potential dissents among policymakers [40][41] - The current economic environment is described as being in a "plausible range of neutral," indicating a balanced approach to monetary policy [39] 分组2: Earnings Reports and Market Reactions - Major tech companies including Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple are set to report earnings this week, with a focus on AI impacts and spending plans [19][30][26] - Microsoft is expected to report a revenue of approximately $25.1 billion for Q4, with analysts looking for insights on Azure growth and capacity constraints [32][23] - Meta is anticipated to provide updates on its spending plans and the performance of its Reality Labs division, which has seen layoffs and a shift in focus [28][29] 分组3: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices have surged above $5,000 per ounce for the first time, indicating potential market concerns and geopolitical tensions [42][44] - The silver market is also experiencing significant movements, suggesting a shift in inflation expectations from disinflation to potential hyperinflation [45] - The decline of the dollar is contributing to the rise in precious metals, raising questions about future economic stability and purchasing power [46][48] 分组4: Impact of Winter Storm on Industries - A severe winter storm has affected 17 states, leading to widespread power outages and significant disruptions in travel, with approximately 823,000 people without power and over 10,000 flight cancellations [9][10] - Retailers like Home Depot and Lowe's are expected to see increased demand for supplies due to the storm, while delivery services like DoorDash have paused operations in affected areas [13][16] - The storm's impact on consumer behavior and supply chains may influence Q1 earnings for companies in the retail and utility sectors [14][11]

Summary of the January FOMC Preview Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, specifically the expectations surrounding the January FOMC meeting and its implications for the U.S. economy and financial markets. Key Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate target range at **3.5-3.75%** during the January meeting, indicating a "dovish hold" [5][8][7] - The Fed has initiated bill purchases to keep reserve balances at "ample" levels, a policy expected to continue without additional changes in January [5][8] - The Committee is anticipated to upgrade its assessment of economic growth from "moderate" to "solid," reflecting improved consumer spending momentum [5][9] - The statement is likely to remove references to increased downside risks to employment, suggesting a more favorable outlook for the labor market [5][12] Communication Strategy - A key focus will be on how Chair Powell communicates the pause in rate cuts, with expectations leaning towards a "dovish hold" that emphasizes the potential for future rate reductions if inflation pressures ease [5][24][23] - There is a possibility of a "hawkish hold" if the committee signals a more durable pause, which would indicate the end of the rate-cutting cycle [5][24][25] Market Implications - Rates strategists recommend investors maintain a neutral position in U.S. Treasury duration and curve, while favoring long positions in 2-year UST SOFR swap spreads [5][5] - FX strategists note that the case for U.S. dollar (USD) weakness is less pronounced but remains, with a hawkish FOMC likely to weigh on the Australian dollar (AUD) more than other currencies [5][5] Economic Indicators - Recent stabilization in the labor market and solid economic activity data are seen as justifications for the Fed's decision to pause rate cuts [7][23] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain low, with a slight decline to **4.375%** noted, indicating limited slack in the labor market [23][23] - Inflation data has shown muted signals, with concerns shifting towards inflation persistence rather than further increases [11][11] Forward Guidance - The Fed is expected to maintain language regarding the "extent and timing of additional adjustments" to the target range, signaling an easing bias [5][13] - The anticipated changes in the FOMC statement reflect a shift towards a more optimistic economic outlook, while still acknowledging divisions within the committee regarding the appropriate policy path [5][27][29] Additional Considerations - The Fed's recent speeches indicate a narrowing of divisions among committee members, suggesting a more unified outlook on economic conditions [27][28] - Powell is likely to address various topics during the press conference, including productivity gains, AI's impact on the labor market, and risks to Fed independence [30][31] Conclusion - The upcoming FOMC meeting is poised to reflect a cautious yet optimistic stance on the U.S. economy, with the Fed maintaining a "dovish hold" while preparing for potential future rate cuts depending on inflation trends and labor market conditions [5][7][24]

Investors are looking past headline inflation noise to drive a significant market shift. According to Professor Jeremy Siegel, the current rotation toward small-cap and value stocks is sustainable, supported by underlying economic resilience and the clear trajectory of Federal Reserve policy.Broadening MarketProfessor Siegel observes a notable rotation away from the largest growth names as earnings season begins, suggesting a healthier market advance is underway.Large-cap growth stocks have recently pulled ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the global economic outlook for 2026, focusing on various regions including the US, Euro area, Japan, and China, as well as implications for monetary policy and inflation trends. Core Insights and Arguments United States - Economic growth is expected to be influenced by central bank discussions on the "neutral" rate, with the Fed likely to cut rates in June and September 2026 due to inflation pressures from a lower unemployment rate [11][12][17] - Consumer spending remains strong, with a 3.5% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q3 2025, but job growth has slowed significantly, indicating a mixed labor market [36] - Inflation is projected to soften mid-year, with core inflation expected to decline as tariff impacts are fully realized [12][36] Euro Area - Growth in the Euro area is steady but below potential, with a forecast of 1.0% growth for 2025 and 2026 [38] - Core inflation has decreased to 2.3%, and further disinflation is anticipated, leading to expectations of ECB rate cuts in June and September 2026 [13][38] - The Euro area composite PMI fell, indicating a slowdown in both manufacturing and services, which aligns with the forecast of modest growth [38][24] Japan - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised rates to 0.75% in December 2025, but further increases are not expected in 2026 due to anticipated declines in core CPI [14][36] - Political uncertainty is rising with potential snap elections, which could impact economic stability [14] China - China's growth in Q4 2025 was below expectations, but manufacturing PMI showed improvement, suggesting modest fiscal support in 2026 [15][19] - The global export market share for China is projected to increase to 16.5% by 2030, driven by advancements in manufacturing and sectors like EVs and robotics [19] - Fiscal policy is expected to remain flat compared to 2025, with a focus on front-loaded investments [15] Other Important Insights - The global economic outlook for 2026 presents a wide range of potential outcomes, with scenarios for both stronger spending and rising productivity, as well as mild downturns [16] - The impact of tariffs is becoming more pronounced, with firms beginning to pass costs onto consumers, which may lead to inflation but also reduce recession risks [64][65] - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious approach to monetary policy across various regions, with central banks remaining data-dependent and responsive to economic indicators [18][36][72] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the economic outlook and monetary policy expectations across major global economies.

Disinflationary Forces - Concerns over accelerating inflation in 2025 were unfounded as wage and price increases slowed due to eight influential factors suggesting disinflation will persist into 2026 [4] - Labor markets weakened broadly despite claims of resilience, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% by late 2025 from 4.1% at the end of 2024 [8] - Real disposable income growth slowed sharply to 1.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, down from 2.5% in 2024, indicating eroding consumer spending power [11] - Monetary conditions were more restrictive than recognized, with commercial bank loans remaining virtually unchanged in nominal terms despite Federal Reserve rate cuts [13] - The U.S. budget deficit decreased to $1.7 trillion in 2025 from $2.0 trillion the previous year, with tariff revenues contributing significantly to this reduction [21] - Idle manufacturing plants outside the AI sector increased, and major economies like China, Japan, Germany, and the UK faced stagnation [26] - A study indicated that tariff hikes initially boost inflation but have a longer-term effect of suppressing demand and contributing to disinflation [27][28] - The shift towards AI is considered disinflationary, potentially leading to excess capacity and compressing margins, which could further restrain income growth [29][31] Labor Market Dynamics - The broader unemployment rate increased from 7.5% in January to 8.4% in December 2025, indicating a serious deterioration in the labor market [8] - The ratio of part-time to full-time jobs surged, reflecting a lack of full-time employment opportunities [8] - Payroll employment growth was significantly overstated, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics revising job gains down to 1.524 million from an initial 1.923 million for the year [9] Consumer Spending and Financial Health - Real disposable personal income remained unchanged in Q3 2025, a concerning sign for a supposedly robust economy [11] - The personal saving rate dropped to 4.2% in Q3 2025, financing the increase in real personal consumption expenditures [11] - Consumers entered 2026 with weak financial health, relying on large tax refunds to repair their balance sheets [12] Monetary Conditions and Credit Availability - Loan rates for lower-risk consumers declined but remained high, with delinquencies and bankruptcies increasing, limiting credit availability [14] - Real world dollar liquidity fell by 8.3% in 2025, marking a fourth consecutive year of decline [20] Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The divergence between GDP and GDI suggests a potential structural problem in income and expenditure flows [10] - The Fisher equation indicates that ongoing disinflationary forces may lead to a decline in long-term Treasury bond yields [32]

At the same time, producer prices and retail sales are pointing to steady but not overheating demand, which, combined with cooling inflation, supports equities and crypto while strengthening the narrative that the U.S. is in a slow‑growth, disinflationary but not outright recessionary environment.Core U.S. inflation for December came in slightly softer than expected, with core CPI around 2.6% year‑on‑year versus forecasts closer to 2.7–2.8%, easing fears of a renewed price spike and giving markets more conf ...