The rate is. You can characterize it as in the high end of neutral or you can characterize characterize it as perhaps mildly restrictive, even modestly restrictive. No one knows for sure, but it's in that range where it's somewhere around the borderline between restrictive and not.Remember that that a big part of the disinflation we're looking for is just the runoff of when tariffs are put into place. Of course, what they do is they raise prices to some extent. To the extent those prices are, the tariffs ar ...

Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said an oil-price shock triggered by the war in Iran risks temporarily derailing the government’s disinflation program https://t.co/qY7NfvgrSh ...

The disinflation narrative that's carried markets for 2 years is showing serious cracks. Oil's move higher isn't just a supply story. It's a geopolitical risk premium creeping back into energy markets.And that changes the Fed's calculus in a meaningful way. Today's payroll report showed a net loss of 92,000 jobs, which complicated things further. The participation rate fell, indicating people are leaving the workforce rather than finding jobs.The conventional read is that the weak jobs data accelerates the ...

Core Insights - The February CPI report indicates a stable inflation rate of 2.4% year-over-year, consistent with January's figures and aligning with economists' expectations [13] - Core prices, excluding food and energy, also remained unchanged at a 2.5% increase, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [13] Economic Commentary - Economists suggest that the current inflation data may serve as a baseline before new price pressures emerge due to geopolitical events, particularly the Iran War and global tariff threats [3][4] - The shift from a frictionless supply-side economy to one facing multiple supply shocks (pandemic, geopolitical tensions, tariffs) is noted as a significant change in the inflation regime [4] - Rising energy demand, driven by technological advancements, is outpacing supply, contributing to unanchored inflationary expectations among consumers [5] Sector-Specific Insights - Key inflation drivers in February included significant increases in moving costs, sporting event tickets, and jewelry, while categories like electronics and meats saw declines [9][10] - Gasoline prices are projected to rise to approximately $3.75 per gallon nationally, with a slow return to pre-conflict levels anticipated [7][12] - The average price of regular gasoline has increased to $3.58 per gallon, up from $2.94 a month prior, indicating a notable inflationary trend in energy costs [12]

Summary of The Chefs' Warehouse Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: The Chefs' Warehouse (NasdaqGS:CHEF) - **Date**: March 11, 2026 - **Speakers**: Chris Pappas (Founder, Chairman, President, and CEO), Jim Leddy (CFO) Industry Insights - **Food Service Resilience**: The food away from home sector remains resilient, driven by events like conferences, business dinners, and celebrations, which continue to support demand despite economic fluctuations [3][4] - **Inflation Management**: The company has effectively managed inflation and deflation across its diverse product range, maintaining an aggregate inflation environment of 1-4% historically, with a company-wide inflation rate of approximately 3-3.5% last year [5][6] Key Business Strategies - **Diversification**: The company imports from over 40 countries and manages 90,000 SKUs, allowing flexibility in sourcing and pricing strategies [5][9] - **Customer Adaptability**: Customers are adapting their menus to manage costs without raising prices significantly, showcasing their entrepreneurial spirit [14] - **Sales Strategy**: The company is transitioning to a hybrid selling model, integrating digital tools with traditional sales methods to enhance customer engagement and efficiency [38][40] Financial Performance - **Tax Refund Impact**: The company does not expect a significant impact from potential tax refunds or events like the World Cup on its guidance, viewing any upside as temporary [18][19] - **Middle Eastern Operations**: Approximately 9% of sales come from international markets, with the Middle East being a growing segment despite recent geopolitical tensions [23][24] Supply Chain and Operational Insights - **Supply Chain Resilience**: The company has navigated supply chain challenges effectively, with no major issues anticipated despite current geopolitical tensions affecting the Middle East [30][31] - **Fuel Costs**: Rising fuel costs are not expected to have a material impact on the company's expense structure, as they manage fuel prices through contracts [32][33] Growth and Expansion - **M&A Strategy**: The company is open to acquisitions but is focused on organic growth in key markets like Texas and Florida, where they see significant potential [114][118] - **Capacity Expansion**: New facilities are being established in growth regions, with positive performance reported in Florida, Texas, and Dubai [128][129] Technology and Innovation - **AI Integration**: The company is leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency and improve customer experience, particularly in inventory management and sales processes [139] Conclusion - The Chefs' Warehouse is positioned for continued growth through strategic diversification, effective inflation management, and a focus on customer adaptability. The company remains optimistic about its operations in the Middle East and is actively pursuing opportunities for expansion while integrating technology to enhance its business model [25][114][139]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total loans grew 8% sequentially and 37% year-over-year, with corporate loans expanding 25% quarter-over-quarter, now representing 63% of the portfolio [2][11] - The NPL ratio increased to 5%, reflecting industry trends and rapid loan growth since 2024 [3][14] - The company reported an attributable net loss of ARS 19.5 billion, significantly narrowing from a loss of ARS 55 billion in the previous quarter [3][11] - NIM rebounded sequentially, supported by lower funding costs and improved investment portfolio yields, with net financial income reaching ARS 246 billion, up 82% sequentially [4][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Commercial lending drove loan growth, increasing 25% sequentially and 64% year-over-year, while retail loans declined 4% sequentially [12][14] - Core transactional balances increased significantly, with checking accounts up 39% and retail savings accounts rising 29% [15] - Loan loss provisions increased 75% sequentially, reflecting higher system-wide delinquency [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - US dollar deposits increased 42% year-over-year, gaining 60 basis points of market share [3] - The company observed declining interest rates and improving liquidity following the October elections, which are expected to support economic recovery [6][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to execute a roadmap focused on profitable growth, targeted segments, and ecosystem integration, emphasizing a customer-centric and technology-enabled model [7][10] - The strategic focus includes enhancing the App Supervielle as a financial hub, integrating various financial services into a unified experience [8][10] - The company aims to capture growth in Argentina's domestic capital market, focusing on affluent clients and corporations to enhance revenue stability [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the fourth quarter marked the peak of an exceptionally tight monetary policy, with early signs of normalization observed post-elections [4][6] - The company expects economic activity to recover gradually in 2026, creating a basis for renewed credit expansion [6][10] - Management remains cautious but optimistic about improving collection trends and stabilizing risk indicators [14][35] Other Important Information - The CET1 ratio strengthened to 15.4%, up 220 basis points quarter-over-quarter, preserving flexibility for growth in 2026 [4][11] - The company anticipates real loan growth between 25% and 30% in 2026, with deposits projected to expand between 20% and 25% [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital buffer sustainability and dividend policy - Management indicated that the capital ratio increase is partly due to off-balance sheet losses and expects the ratio to remain between 11% and 13% in 2026, with no dividends planned for 2026 due to the negative result [21][24][25] Question: Market sentiment and catalysts for growth - Management highlighted the government's ambitious reform agenda and potential improvements in the job market as positive catalysts for the banking sector [28][30] Question: Loan growth outlook amid rising NPLs - Management acknowledged the peak in provisions and indicated that improved collection trends could stabilize NPLs moving forward [34][36] Question: ROE guidance and profitability outlook - Management expects sequential improvements in ROE throughout 2026, with a target of double-digit ROE by the end of the year [38][39] Question: Balance sheet deleveraging strategy - Management clarified that recent balance sheet adjustments were tactical and related to optimizing funding quality, with plans to expand when opportunities arise [41][42] Question: Retail credit portfolio recovery - Management noted that retail credit growth will depend on disinflation and improved consumer confidence, with fintech competition acknowledged [76][77]

Turkey’s central bank is set to hit the pause button on interest-rate cuts in March as a spike in energy costs amid the conflict in Iran threatens the country’s disinflation efforts, according to traders and some economists https://t.co/c3c0su6RqB ...

Gary Tanashian is proprietor of NFTRH.com. Actionable, hype-free technical, macro economic and sentiment analysis is provided in the premium market report 'Notes From the Rabbit Hole' (https://nftrh.com/nftrh-premium/). Complimentary analysis and commentary is available at the public website (https://nftrh.com).Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SHY, IEI, IEF either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses ...

Economic Outlook - U.S. Producer Prices (PPI) have come in higher than expected, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the economy [1][7] - Concerns about the economy's stability are growing, with warnings about potential job losses due to AI disruption and a lack of micro stability [2][6] - The Federal Reserve is not expected to adopt an easing bias, and any rate cuts may signal significant economic issues [3][7] Treasury Market Performance - U.S. Treasuries have seen a strong performance, with a return of 1.5% in February and a 25 basis point drop in the 10-year yield, as investors seek safety amid economic uncertainties [4] - There is a notable flight to safety in the bond market, with lower breakeven rates and a strong labor market contributing to this trend [3][4] Inflation and Consumer Behavior - Inflation remains a concern, with expectations of core PCE running slightly above 3%, driven by sectors like healthcare and airfare [21] - Consumers are expected to save or pay down debt with tax refunds rather than spend, as the savings rate has dropped to its lowest level in three years [17][16] Private Credit Market Concerns - The collapse of MFS in the U.K. has raised alarms about credit risks, particularly in the software sector, with potential default rates reaching 15% [22][24] - Allegations of fraud against MFS include double pledging of collateral, leading to significant financial shortfalls [27][28] Corporate Developments - Dell has reported robust demand for AI servers, projecting $50 billion in revenue for the current fiscal year, indicating strong market interest in AI technologies [31] - CoreWeave is facing challenges after reporting a larger-than-expected loss, raising concerns about its capital spending and infrastructure investments [32][39] Market Dynamics - The investment-grade market is experiencing strong demand, with expectations of $240 billion in issuance in March, driven by a solid appetite from institutional investors [42][51] - There is a notable divergence in credit spreads, with high-yield tech spreads widening while investment-grade spreads remain relatively stable [46][49]

Key TakeawaysGerman business sentiment surged to 88.6 in February, outperforming market expectations of 88.3 and marking a six-month high for the Eurozone's largest economy.Italy’s final harmonized inflation (HICP) held steady at 1.0% Y/Y in January, confirming preliminary data and supporting the European Central Bank's (ECB) current disinflationary narrative.Swiss sight deposits jumped to 457.6B CHF for the week ending February 20, up from 452.7B CHF previously, signaling a notable increase in liquidity wi ...